Lost one on takeoff at KLNS just a few hours ago

Rick A

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Rick A
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KLNS
All we know so far is a single engine turbine owned by a doctor (hangared near mine) crashed on takeoff this morning. One fatality. Crash location is around a 1/4 a mile northeast side close to the departure end of R/W 8. Variable low clouds, fog, and vis. Burning off now. First WAG is yet another classical LOC upon entering IMC.
 
N819MA

ADS-B shows that it got up to about 650 MSL at 136 knots right over the departure end of the runway before suddenly diving and signal loss. Airport elevation is 403 MSL - weather (shown below) indicated broken 300, then broken 400 variable 800 (AGL) over several reports prior to the accident, which is right in the range where control was lost. 3000’ selected on the autopilot, but no indication whether autopilot or any a/p modes were activated.

IMG_0830.jpeg

Weather:
KLNS 201121Z 17003KT 3SM BR BKN003 24/23 A2988 RMK AO2 T02440233

KLNS 201153Z 20003KT 5SM BR BKN004 BKN009 25/24 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 004V008 SLP113 60000 T02500239 10250 20233 56003

KLNS 201203Z 00000KT 6SM BR BKN005 OVC010 25/24 A2987 RMK AO2 CIG 004V009 T02500239
 
N819MA

ADS-B shows that it got up to about 650 MSL at 136 knots right over the departure end of the runway before suddenly diving and signal loss. Airport elevation is 403 MSL. 3000’ selected on the autopilot, but no indication whether autopilot or any a/p modes were activated.

View attachment 143028

Weather:
KLNS 201121Z 17003KT 3SM BR BKN003 24/23 A2988 RMK AO2 T02440233

KLNS 201153Z 20003KT 5SM BR BKN004 BKN009 25/24 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 004V008 SLP113 60000 T02500239 10250 20233 56003

KLNS 201203Z 00000KT 6SM BR BKN005 OVC010 25/24 A2987 RMK AO2 CIG 004V009 T02500239
Not great not terrible. Tops?
 
Not great not terrible. Tops?
The only potentially relevant PIREP occurred about 40 mins prior to the accident:

MDT UA /OV LRP/TM 1117/FL010/TP C550/SK BKN007-TOPUNKN

Hard to infer anything solid about tops from that. Possible, but not definite that 1000’ is still in the clouds.

Edit: here’s another a bit later: MDT UA /OV LNS180005/TM 1433/FL014/TP SR22/SK BASES 014 TOP027
Bases were consistently rising over the successive METARs (matching this PIREP at 14z), so not surprising that they were up to 014. Tops could have matched that trend as well, but convection increases throughout the day, so they could have been thickening as well. Either way, there’s a datapoint - 1300’ thickness 2.5 hours after the accident.
 
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hrrr_2025072012_fh1_sounding_40.27N_76.72W.pngcref_NE_sfc_f000.png
 
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That skew-t isn’t valid until 18z. The t/d depression was much closer at accident time (12z) at 77/74F.


Edit: here’s the 12z +0 HRRR run, which is pretty close to observed conditions:

IMG_0832.jpeg

Based on this, 1000’ or so of thickness is plausible. I don’t think this aircraft got more than a few hundred feet into the clouds, anyway.
 
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Here’s the pertinent weather observation overview for the entire area at the time of the accident. The precip was still pretty far away at the time. There was also an IFR AIRMET valid at the time.

IMG_0831.jpeg
 
Airport pilot conversations this morning point to the case the pilot is a very experienced and current instrument pilot who flew the plane often in all types of weather. Nobody I been texting and talking to this morning knows him personally. I've never met or seem him.

Seems he relied a lot on the line guys to tug the plane in and out of this hangar. Then, allegedly he arrives, climbs in, and taxis out. He's not really known by any of the airport rats like myself (so far) who also hangar their planes in close proximity to his aircraft.

This crash may not be just a common LOC following takeoff. He certainly didn't make it too far.

Lots of new faces on line guys lately. Is there a gust lock on these types of turbine Pipers? Or, does a 100LL fuel nozzle fit into a Jet Fuel tank?
 
Either way, there’s a datapoint - 1300’ thickness 2.5 hours after the accident.

Seems very plausible. This is very typical after sunrise weather lately common around here. The tops of the low layer are very likely to be around 2000' MSL or less (airport elevation 400' MSL). Depending upon the amount of higher clouds blocking the sun (and warm up) determines how fast the lowest layer cloud bases climb, then ultimately disappear.
 
Lots of new faces on line guys lately. Is there a gust lock on these types of turbine Pipers? Or, does a 100LL fuel nozzle fit into a Jet Fuel tank?

Would 100LL kill a turbine the same way Jet A would kill a recip?

@Bell206 indicated otherwise recently:

 
Any PA-46/M500 pilots in here? At ~140 knots in a ~1000 fpm climb, would an engine failure produce a nearly instantaneous (no more than two seconds) reversal to a ~1600 fpm descent? Feels like if you had positive control of the aircraft you’d be able to moderate that a bit by trading airspeed for altitude while slowing for best glide.
 
N819MA

ADS-B shows that it got up to about 650 MSL at 136 knots right over the departure end of the runway before suddenly diving and signal loss. Airport elevation is 403 MSL - weather (shown below) indicated broken 300, then broken 400 variable 800 (AGL) over several reports prior to the accident, which is right in the range where control was lost. 3000’ selected on the autopilot, but no indication whether autopilot or any a/p modes were activated.

View attachment 143028

Weather:
KLNS 201121Z 17003KT 3SM BR BKN003 24/23 A2988 RMK AO2 T02440233

KLNS 201153Z 20003KT 5SM BR BKN004 BKN009 25/24 A2988 RMK AO2 CIG 004V008 SLP113 60000 T02500239 10250 20233 56003

KLNS 201203Z 00000KT 6SM BR BKN005 OVC010 25/24 A2987 RMK AO2 CIG 004V009 T02500239
How can you know what was selected on the autopilot?
 
How can you know what was selected on the autopilot?
ADS-B can transmit autopilot master and mode selection as well as selected headings and altitudes on many aircraft. All I was saying here was there was no indication, meaning it’s inconclusive. Could be that the aircraft didn’t have the capability to transmit those data, could be that AP wasn’t activated yet. However, since it was transmitting the altitude selection, that leans toward the latter.
 
ADS-B can transmit autopilot master and mode selection as well as selected headings or altitudes on many aircraft. All I was saying here was there was no indication, meaning it’s inconclusive. Could be that the aircraft didn’t have the capability to transmit those data, could be that AP wasn’t activated yet. However, since it was transmitting the altitude selection, that leans toward the latter.
Didn’t know that. What other stuff can some of them transmit? Airspeed would be useful. If unable perhaps the ‘bugged’ airspeed.
 
Evolving WAG... possible Somatogravic illusion (SGI).

The airport runways at LNS can occassionally be a real fog pocket. It's not common, but near zero zero visibilities occur that are difficult to notice until on the roll and entering a patch of thicker fog, when prior to that at least a runway centerline stripe or two (or three) is visible during the initiation of a very low vis takeoff.

Based on the ADS-B read out, it appears the aircraft lifted off, at around the approximate liftoff point abruptly descended, then climbed again while accelerating in a gentle climb above the runway. Perfect set up for this illusion.

 
Visited the airport this afternoon and learned a number of Civil Air Patrol cadets were stationed around the corn field crash site, obviously keeping the public away.

Drove past the deceased pilot's hangar and noticed a local police K-9 dog and handler inspecting (sniffing) around the inside of his hangar. Is this some type of standard procedure common to a NTSB investigation? Or could there be something else possibly related to this unfortunate event that would justify the use of a police dog?
 

Don't think so. The crash site is out in the middle of maybe a 25 to 40 acre corn field, and the local corn is all about 6 feet tall

I've only seen one photo, taken from a nearby small hill that shows a dark smudge in the middle (slightly off to the north side of the departure runway (08) heading), maybe 1/4 mile (or less) from the end of the runway.

The ground is so wet and saturated around here if there was a fire it probably did last too long. We've had some rain almost daily with lots of humidity nearly 3 weeks.

Nobody as mentioned any fire yet. The dark smudge in the photo seems to be less than 100' in length and as wide as the wings, so I believe the plane impacted with the wings relatively level.
 
New WAG... neighbors interviewed today by local television news who witnessed and heard the crash, and rushed to the scene explained the aircraft seemed to be having a normal climb following the takeoff in VMC conditions, when suddenly it nosed over and crashed wings level into the corn field. Apparently he never made it into the low clouds.

Runway ground fog or a Somatogravic illusion (SGI) are not part of this crash equation.
 
Lots of new faces on line guys lately. Is there a gust lock on these types of turbine Pipers? Or, does a 100LL fuel nozzle fit into a Jet Fuel tank?
Not only will a PT-6 not quit if you feed it 100LL, it's specifically allowed to run 100LL for something like 50 hours between overhauls, and IIRC the only reason for the limit is the presence of lead. So that's not it...

New WAG... neighbors interviewed today by local television news who witnessed and heard the crash, and rushed to the scene explained the aircraft seemed to be having a normal climb following the takeoff in VMC conditions, when suddenly it nosed over and crashed wings level into the corn field. Apparently he never made it into the low clouds.
Medical event?
 
Not only will a PT-6 not quit if you feed it 100LL, it's specifically allowed to run 100LL for something like 50 hours between overhauls, and IIRC the only reason for the limit is the presence of lead. So that's not it...


Medical event?
Auto trim autopilot misuse or malfunction... when disconnected the aircraft nosed over? Suicide?

Quote from the local newspaper: "Bob Eby, who is a pilot, also witnessed the deadly crash. He said everything looked OK when the plane initially took off.
"Everything looked normal, normal angle. And, the speed was up, the gear was up, and all of a sudden, for whatever reason, he just started nosing down about 10 to 15 degrees, and he flew it right into the cornfield," Eby said. Eby and his wife Lucy immediately called 911 and rushed to the scene to try and help."

The Piper pilot, Dr. Musaddiq Nazeeri of Lebanon PA, did have some Federal overbilling charges that allegedly occurred during 2020 - 2022 which were subsequently negotiated then settled with the Feds. Maybe the police dogs searching his hangar on the day he died are related to some other investigation targeting the doctor. If that's the case, this incident could possibly be related to a suicide (IMO).
 
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This event is quickly growing legs. This past Friday the pilot's wife allegedly recently filed a protective order with the court against him, and is filing for divorce. Combine that with the search of his hangar by Police on the same day as the crash, his past history regarding overbilling and a negotiated settlement with prosecutors, suicide by plane is no longer a long shot....

 
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Preliminary out. Nothing new. Interesting to note still no mention by the press of the strong possibility of a suicide. The family's request for privacy is being honored. Just a reminder by the press detailing some (but not nearly all) of the pilot's personal alleged legal troubles.

 
Preliminary out. Nothing new. Interesting to note still no mention by the press of the strong possibility of a suicide. The family's request for privacy is being honored. Just a reminder by the press detailing some (but not nearly all) of the pilot's personal alleged legal troubles.

But why the pre flight then?
I say LOC
 
Suicide is certainly plausible. Toxicology will be interesting. Suicides often involve chemical courage.

An apparently normal preflight does push against that. Crashing with wings level is odd. Barring suicide, I'd lean toward a control failure, specifically trim or AP.

More interesting than the average crash. . . .
 
No idea on the cause. I'll just speculate that if you normally pre-flight the plane, you're always going to pre-flight the plane. Like brushing your teeth, it's a habit, you would likely just do it, IMO.
 
“surveillance footage captured Nazeeri arriving at the airport and performing a brief preflight inspection.”

What constitutes “a brief preflight inspection?” And why would it be “brief” instead of “a preflight inspection?”
Guessing... checking flight controls but not sumping tanks.
 
Guessing... checking flight controls but not sumping tanks.

In the case of the accident pilot, the term "a brief preflight inspection" probably means walking around and peering underneath to see of the lineman who pulled it out of the hangar removed the wheel chocks.

A couple of my pilot buddies had a clear view of his hangar and commented well before the incident the lineman with the tug was the only person they ever saw touch his plane. The owner would show up, park his luxury car in the hangar, push the close button on the hangar door, jump in and fire it up, regardless of how miserable the weather was that day. The hangar he leased had a big ramp in front that didn't block the taxiway as the plane sat out in front waiting for him to show up, or leaving it there upon his return.

About a week or two after his death, the news reported hundreds of doctors being arrested during the break up of a foreign based medical over-billing syndicate.

I'd be surprised if any aircraft issues turn up... my WAG (and it's not so wild of a guess) is that it was intentional.
 
Very sad, no matter what. Willing to bet that the families had no idea.

My limited experience with federal auditors in the IT space is that they may not always be fast, but you can never count them out on being thorough.
 
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