Lear 60 Boca Raton FL 11/1/26

benyflyguy

benyflyguy

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sounds like a Lear went down in Boca.
bocanewsnow.com

PLANE CRASH IN PALM BEACH COUNTY NINE KILLED - BocaNewsNow.com

UPDATE AT 3:16 pm from FAA: “A Learjet 60 crashed in a residential area near Cresthaven, Florida, around 12:50 p.m. local time on Sunday, Nov. 1. Nine people
bocanewsnow.com bocanewsnow.com

There’s dash cam footage out there that is tough to watch.
 
President just left PBI I believe about that time?? May be all wrong but they had a KC 135 doing orbits Jupiter to Palm Beach all morning. Rain squally weather too. Didn’t hear any fast movers but the weather sucks.
 
dans2992 said:

ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live

ADS-B Exchange - track aircraft live - aircraft flight history
globe.adsbexchange.com globe.adsbexchange.com

-32,000 FPM. Austin to the Bahamas. Straight down from FL350.
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Edit: Definitely not hypoxia!
Headed to North Eleuthera. Probably Harbor Island now Briland for new people

Edit: That’s a strange track if going to North Eleuthera? There was a TFR over Palm Beach.
 
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Hard to think of hypoxia, but there is a hard course change away from direct course to the Bahamas just as the descent begins. Looking at the footage, it's hard to see the four corners of the plane as it dove. Don't see any mobile homes near impact point but post-impact wreckage could have flown into a nearby mobile home park? The plane levels at 8900 feet (ADSB final transmissions could account for that), after a steep turning descent in 60 seconds from 35K. Thunderstorms in the area. Update: ATC recording is terrible and it's hard to listen to. Uncorrected 60 degree bank too, if I heard that. If they lost the stab, it was in the final seconds it would appear, given the flight track and descent. Wild guess would be ice on the stab and overspeed, followed by stab departure. RIP all. NTSB will be hard at work. If the stab turns up away from the scene in the next day. . .
 
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For awareness: The aircraft cruise altitude was 37,000. There was a slight upward deviation at 1748z, followed by a downward deviation beginning five seconds later. increasing in magnitude to over 36,000 fpm. The last ping occurred 17:49:32z, roughly 90 seconds after the first upward deviation.

Below is the radar composite at 1750Z with the path overlaid. That little cell it flew through just prior to the descent beginning was moving from SE to NW and intensified in the few scans prior to the aircraft arriving to that point.

1793568430021.png

Echo tops of that cell went from 30-35kft 20 minutes prior to just getting into the 40-45kft with a few spots of 45-50kft as the aircraft arrived at that point. 10 minutes after the accident, most of that cell was well into 45-50kft, showing it was rapidly growing vertically. Not the most intense echoes, as you can see above, but well strong enough to be of interest, especially coupled with the rapid vertical growth.
 
Here's a closer view, showing the vertical detail of the path around that echo and the accident site.

1793569333349.png
 
If there was structural failure, it's hard to know if it was a cause or an effect of the upset and overspeed. Have to consider ice, trim, and autopilot operation as well. There doesn't seem to be any autopilot modality information on the ADS-B.
 
Den60 said:
Maybe at the end. The pilot working the radio mentioned icing and then more precipitation. She then asked to climb for a better ride and was cleared to 37K feet. Things went to hell quickly after that. The Lear is a high performance jet, meant for speed with high wing loading.
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For perspective, they reached FL370 (down from 430) about 7 minutes prior to the upset. It's quite probable the recording linked above is not in real-time.
 
Flying Keys said:
For perspective, they reached FL370 (down from 430) about 7 minutes prior to the upset. It's quite probable the recording linked above is not in real-time.
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Are you saying they descended into icing conditions? Damn. Lears are not known for being forgivable from what I've read.
 
Den60 said:
Are you saying they descended into icing conditions? Damn. Lears are not known for being forgivable from what I've read.
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I’m not sure icing would have been avoidable in this situation, climb or descent - they very likely flew horizontally into a rapidly developing cell. Looking at the overview I posted above, they arrived at FL370 about where the path turned fully northeast, well before the encounter.

I don’t want to listen to the audio again right now, but I think she said OAT was -56 (edit: -47, per the transcript) which isn’t atypical at those altitudes. But the fact she was saying “precipitation” at those temps is concerning. That’s most likely driven by convection. SLDs, hail, whatever, heavy enough to be noticeable.
 
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Icing, pulling hard on the controls, lost the horizontal stabilizer.

Unfortunately, this flight was obviously get-there-itis to the Bahamas.

You have to respect the weather. I've flown into hurricane Andrew and other awful storms in AK and Florida because we had to. This flight could have diverted.
 
It's really a shame that some piece of excrement had to rush and get that ATC recording and immediately post it on social media. No thoughts whatsoever for the victims, only wanting to bask in their few minutes of glory on social media.

I'm sure the youtube "investigators" are also scurrying to get the first post up to tell the unwashed what just happened.

Leaches.
 
I mean this with the utmost somberness: her choice and ability (whether purposed or incidental) to transmit her flight parameters condition through that sequence, will be her legacy for those of us still alive to learn from it. She did us all a solid in that regard, in spite of the reflexive recoil most people have to hearing that female shriek upon realization she's about to die. May she rest in peace; I cannot imagine for family members to have to be exposed to hearing their loved one's last frantic clamor. That's how people get legit PTSD; not everybody is built to disassociate the screams of their loved one sufficiently to not get "stuck" post-stress. It's usually why NTSB tends to clip those parts out, as it isn't salient to the safety angle. Digressing.

They will not find much useful in that missile crater. Hope they find the stabs, but I don't think they'll be in the crater. They're prob miles away, dozens away if the stabs broke when she first got the nose-down departure in the 30s. The video is useful, hopefully they can process the rendering to evaluate the absence of the horizontal stabs. All in all, this is extremely important 1st hand account we have. Occam got it from here.

People upthread already beat Occam to it:
1) Continued flight into worsening convective turbulence, worsening precipitation intensity as admitted by the crew, with also admitted difficulty maintaining static altitude (which you shouldn't do that anyways in a turbulent cell) before the control departure event.
2) The cell won: broke their horizontal stabs, the aggressive pitch down departure is textbook aerodynamic response, exactly as she's describing it on the radio.
3)Unrecoverable lawndart, with the vertical speeds to match. The video is not at all suprising. The audio confirms and is physics-compatible for the entire thing start to finish.

The real question here is: what's going on with the decisional aspect of paid flight in these circles? Folks are that job-fearful of saying no? I recognize the employment situation is weak right now, but I rather be unemployed than dead. I know why this happens more in limos than public buses, but for the sake of not being polemic in the same post as I'm offering condolences to the surviving families of the deceased, I'll digress and let the rest of the peanut gallery take it where this thing is going anyways.

Stay safe out there, and please practice saying no without fear in the mirror. Could help you one day.
 
hindsight2020 said:
I mean this with the utmost somberness: her choice and ability (whether purposed or incidental) to transmit her flight parameters condition through that sequence, will be her legacy for those of us still alive to learn from it. She did us all a solid in that regard, in spite of the reflexive recoil most people have to hearing that female shriek upon realization she's about to die. May she rest in peace; I cannot imagine for family members to have to be exposed to hearing their loved one's last frantic clamor. That's how people get legit PTSD; not everybody is built to disassociate the screams of their loved one sufficiently to not get "stuck" post-stress. It's usually why NTSB tends to clip those parts out, as it isn't salient to the safety angle. Digressing.

They will not find much useful in that missile crater. Hope they find the stabs, but I don't think they'll be in the crater. They're prob miles away, dozens away if the stabs broke when she first got the nose-down departure in the 30s. The video is useful, hopefully they can process the rendering to evaluate the absence of the horizontal stabs. All in all, this is extremely important 1st hand account we have. Occam got it from here.

People upthread already beat Occam to it:
1) Continued flight into worsening convective turbulence, worsening precipitation intensity as admitted by the crew, with also admitted difficulty maintaining static altitude (which you shouldn't do that anyways in a turbulent cell) before the control departure event.
2) The cell won: broke their horizontal stabs, the aggressive pitch down departure is textbook aerodynamic response, exactly as she's describing it on the radio.
3)Unrecoverable lawndart, with the vertical speeds to match. The video is not at all suprising. The audio confirms and is physics-compatible for the entire thing start to finish.

The real question here is: what's going on with the decisional aspect of paid flight in these circles? Folks are that job-fearful of saying no? I recognize the employment situation is weak right now, but I rather be unemployed than dead. I know why this happens more in limos than public buses, but for the sake of not being polemic in the same post as I'm offering condolences to the surviving families of the deceased, I'll digress and let the rest of the peanut gallery take it where this thing is going anyways.

Stay safe out there, and please practice saying no without fear in the mirror. Could help you one day.
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I listened to it once (wish I hadn’t) and won’t again, but was she part of a two-person crew? Almost sounded like they were trying to work on the issue as she was narrating.
 
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