KOSH - 2022 - Fly through R-6903 and the minnow MOA

Shepherd

Shepherd

Final Approach
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Shepherd
Has anyone done it?
Recommended? Not recommended?

It would shorten my flight by a couple of hours.
Or my life by x years?

Thanks
 
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Lots of people do it, but, personally, having made the mid lake crossing once (in a Cessna 120), I would go around the bottom.

Summer can be hazy over the lake - no horizon - that's OK if you have instrument skills - if you don't (like me), your options are to turn left (adding several hours) or cross at about 100 feet agl to maintain a visual reference. It seems like a long way at that kind of altitude.

YMMV.
 
Looks like it would save you 100 miles coming from 44N if you went south of Lake Erie and Lake Michigan.

I enjoy flying up the ‘Chicago Fly’ and getting a great backdrop of the city of Chicago. I’ve flown across the lake many times, but only in a multi-engine Boeing or Airbus. And it looks huge even in those.

You might be tempted to think there are boats or ships in the lake, but nope, there just aren’t enough.

Here’s another way I justify never flying over large expanses of water. Imagine you take a loved one over the lake and nothing happens. And then years later you have an engine failure (I’ve had 3) and manage a beautiful landing in a field, but then your love one says “wait, what if that happened while we had been crossing the lake?” I gave that some thought and decided an up close view of scenic Gary, Indiana was for me!
 
I’ve done Lake MI a few times, MKE towards Grand Rapids usually, sometimes I’ll go around South. My technique is to fly high, usually with F.F.. One can average about 25-30 miles in the middle where it would be hard to reach shore. There is a ship ADS site that gives you an idea of where ships could be, I’ve found it to be fairly accurate. They may be all in the chow hall, but I envisioned ditching 1 mile in front.

I have worn a life preserver, or had it close. Yes, the water is cold even in August. One thing, flying 1800’ AGL on the Chicago lakefront doesn’t offer the best options either. The beach can be crowded, may be out in the water anyway.

One would want good weather, not the route to evaluate engine roughness. CCF72C15-EF22-44DF-B04E-916DEFB362A6.jpeg
 
I've done the lake a few times. I'd say do it only if it's clear of haze and clouds, they can make VFR flight very demanding. Go over as high as you can stand, don't bother with life vests. If you crash in the drink, your time of useful consciousness is only a few minutes. I don't do it if I have any other choice. Do come see me in the Activity Center, I'll be teaching Origami.
 
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sourdough44 said:
I’ve done Lake MI a few times, MKE towards Grand Rapids usually, sometimes I’ll go around South. My technique is to fly high, usually with F.F.. One can average about 25-30 miles in the middle where it would be hard to reach shore. There is a ship ADS site that gives you an idea of where ships could be, I’ve found it to be fairly accurate. They may be all in the chow hall, but I envisioned ditching 1 mile in front.

I have worn a life preserver, or had it close. Yes, the water is cold even in August. One thing, flying 1800’ AGL on the Chicago lakefront doesn’t offer the best options either. The beach can be crowded, may be out in the water anyway.

One would want good weather, not the route to evaluate engine roughness. View attachment 104517
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That looks like something you could land on instead of ditching near.
 
Lake Michigan is cold, even in the summer. The likelihood of surviving a ditching in it without a raft is quite low. I’d fly the extra miles to go around it.

- Martin
 
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Martin Pauly said:
Lake Michigan is cold, even in the summer. The likelihood of surviving a ditching in it without a raft is quite low. I’d fly the extra miles to go around it.

- Martin
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It can be a LOT of miles, Lake Michigan is BIG. That said the times I've overflown it I was driven by weather, it was the only clear path to get where I'm going. Airplane doesn't know it's over water.
 
The times I went to VT and Niagara Falls I also cut across a fair bit of Canada, shortened the flight. The weather was good, didn’t stop of course. If the weather was questionable, I’d rather be close for a simple diversion inside the USA.

It may be obvious, didn’t see it posted, but the Minnow MOA & the restricted area should be cold for the Oshkosh fly-in. So yes, one has the lake to consider, but the special use airspace shouldn’t be a factor.
 
The R-area is usually cold (both the airspace, and the water below it). I've never had it been hot when I've been crossing.
 
I thought lake michigan was around 70F during Oshkosh? Isn't that in the "hours to indefinitely" range for survivability?
 
172andyou said:
I thought lake michigan was around 70F during Oshkosh? Isn't that in the "hours to indefinitely" range for survivability?
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70 near the shores, not in the middle. And that 70 can go to low 60s in a hurry if the winds shift and turn the water over.
 
172andyou said:
I thought lake michigan was around 70F during Oshkosh? Isn't that in the "hours to indefinitely" range for survivability?
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As Ed said, 70F near shore and in the south. I’ve clocked low 40s mid lake in July before.
 
EdFred said:
70 near the shores, not in the middle. And that 70 can go to low 60s in a hurry if the winds shift and turn the water over.
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The point is that it's pretty survivable in the summer. Here's a map of the surface temps in July 2020. There can be a fair bit of variability, sure. Look at the upwelling of cool water localized to the south east on 7/18 as an example. Rafts are a good idea. I'm just chafing at the idea that Lake Michigan in mid-summer is the instant hypothermia that some have claimed/implied. Probably 80% of that map is showing temps that are survivable "indefinitely" according to hypothermia charts, even without a raft.

XS5WP5QH4NEVHPY3FWOJ6LJOZ4.gif
 
Martin Pauly said:
Lake Michigan is cold, even in the summer. The likelihood of surviving a ditching in it without a raft is quite low. I’d fly the extra miles to go around it.

- Martin
Click to expand...

172andyou said:
I thought lake michigan was around 70F during Oshkosh? Isn't that in the "hours to indefinitely" range for survivability?
Click to expand...

Interestingly, I was just up in Traverse City MI for an Aviation Law Conference. One of our post CLE activities was a visit to Coast Guard Air Station Traverse City. The Pilots there told us the following:
1) The water must be 86 F in order not to get hypothermia, its why you hear about these boaters floating on a cooler for 4 days in the gulf of Mexico.
2) The time it takes for the coast guard to be dispatched is 2 hours from the time the Epirb or ELT goes off. They then launch with in 30 minutes of getting that call. Water rescue often takes up to 6 hours be plucked from the water.
3) The best thing you can do to enhance your chance of being spotted from the air especially at night is to have a strobe on your life jacket. Their night vision cameras on the helicopter have picked up the flick of a bic lighter trying to be lit.
4) They told us that the percentage of survivors they have pulled out of the lake is small.

That said I've flown over the lake with EdFred, A2 (Beazanson) and by myself but when I went to 6Y9 I daisy chained the crossing over the islands in the far north of the lake.
 
AdamZ said:
Interestingly, I was just up in Traverse City MI for an Aviation Law Conference. One of our post CLE activities was a visit to Coast Guard Air Station Traverse City. The Pilots there told us the following:
1) The water must be 86 F in order not to get hypothermia, its why you hear about these boaters floating on a cooler for 4 days in the gulf of Mexico.
Click to expand...

cold+temp+chart.jpeg
 
When flying over water, including to/from Airventure over Lake Michigan, I wear a Mustang Anti-Exposure Work Suit. Normally used for boating, try West Marine, +/-$700. In the pocket I have a 406Mhz locator beacon. If I end up in the water I'll survive the water for an indefinite period if the water is 50 F or warmer. The locator beacon should help with a rescue sooner than later. The suit has other benefits, I wear it in the winter to stay warm, whether I am flying over water or not, it is a floating snow suit. When the weather is warm, I put it on my legs but slip my arms and torso out of the upper part, and if needed I could get back into it easily in a matter of seconds without leaving the left seat. It is large enough that it fits over my street clothes in winter or summer. The other concerns of flying over water are still valid, visibility and horizon and such. The suit and locator beacon don't solve all problems, but provide safer options. Regarding comfort, once I'm flying I forget it is even on. I agree with Kent, from making the Lake Michigan crossing four times, there are not enough boats around to provide any level of comfort regarding a quick water rescue. Rafts have their plusses and minuses, debatable in another thread, I'm comfortable over water at least 50 F with the suit and a locator beacon.
 
Eric Detmer said:
When flying over water, including to/from Airventure over Lake Michigan, I wear a Mustang Anti-Exposure Work Suit. Normally used for boating, try West Marine, +/-$700. In the pocket I have a 406Mhz locator beacon. If I end up in the water I'll survive the water for an indefinite period if the water is 50 F or warmer. The locator beacon should help with a rescue sooner than later. The suit has other benefits, I wear it in the winter to stay warm, whether I am flying over water or not, it is a floating snow suit. When the weather is warm, I put it on my legs but slip my arms and torso out of the upper part, and if needed I could get back into it easily in a matter of seconds without leaving the left seat. It is large enough that it fits over my street clothes in winter or summer. The other concerns of flying over water are still valid, visibility and horizon and such. The suit and locator beacon don't solve all problems, but provide safer options. Regarding comfort, once I'm flying I forget it is even on. I agree with Kent, from making the Lake Michigan crossing four times, there are not enough boats around to provide any level of comfort regarding a quick water rescue. Rafts have their plusses and minuses, debatable in another thread, I'm comfortable over water at least 50 F with the suit and a locator beacon.
Click to expand...


What do you wear for survival over mountains and forest? A zorb?
 
On my trip to OSH, from BED I flew over the lake out and back. Out I stopped just before the lake, fueled up, then went over at 6,500. Visibility was about 8 to 10. I saw exactly zero boats on the trip. On the way back I got a little smarter, climbed to 13,500 and found the narrowest part for my crossing near OSH. I figured I had about a 10 to 15 mile "dead" zone where I would not make a shore up there. At 200 mph that was about 3 minutes of flying. Undecided about this year so far, but I think I might circumnavigate. Again I saw zero boats on my second crossing.
 
Shepherd said:
Has anyone done it?
Recommended? Not recommended?

It would shorten my flight by a couple of hours.
Or my life by x years?

Thanks
Click to expand...
Just going around 6903 and Minnow wouldn't add that much time. It's pretty much just a 40x45 mile box. Dog legging around it vs going through should be measured in minutes, not hours. What is your starting point?
 
I fly it all the time...but only in July, August, and September, and only above 10,000 feet (I usually do it at 16-17k). That lake looks MUCH bigger when you are over it...as in, "for quite awhile, you won't see either side if you're below 10k" bigger.
I've never found the restricted area or the MOA hot.
 
172andyou said:
The point is that it's pretty survivable in the summer. Here's a map of the surface temps in July 2020. There can be a fair bit of variability, sure. Look at the upwelling of cool water localized to the south east on 7/18 as an example. Rafts are a good idea. I'm just chafing at the idea that Lake Michigan in mid-summer is the instant hypothermia that some have claimed/implied. Probably 80% of that map is showing temps that are survivable "indefinitely" according to hypothermia charts, even without a raft.

XS5WP5QH4NEVHPY3FWOJ6LJOZ4.gif
Click to expand...
wow ! this is great information. Seems like flying over is a very real possibility.
 
If you decide to cross Lake Michigan, may I suggest flight following to insure you have someone listening if you need to call for help.
 
Justin M said:
If you decide to cross Lake Michigan, may I suggest flight following to insure you have someone listening if you need to call for help.
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For me, thats the pax in the right seat.
 
I have crossed the lake many times last trip I followed the shore route. Flight following usually dumps you half way across the lake when heading to OSH. Crossing the lake is not for the faint of heart.
 
Over the years I have flown my Bonanza over Lake Michigan more than 200 times, mostly between Muskegon and Manitowoc, but also quite a few times between Kalamazoo directly to Milwaukee. The southern route is much longer over water, and if you are IFR, Chicago makes you descend to 4,000 halfway across to stay below O'Hare and Midway traffic.

I always wore an inflatable flotation device and had a six-person raft. I don't recall ever doing it VFR. There used to be a Lake Crossing service for VFR flights, but I don't know if that still exists.

I have never seen Minnow or R6903 active.
 
I’ve had a recurring nightmare that I get there, sit in hotel waiting all week for the smoke to clear, and go home

someone tell me Oshkosh is protected by wind patterns, a previously unseen mountain, a giant smoke eater, and nightly (drizzle?) rain which clears the air
 
Randomskylane said:
I’ve had a recurring nightmare that I get there, sit in hotel waiting all week for the smoke to clear, and go home

someone tell me Oshkosh is protected by wind patterns, a previously unseen mountain, a giant smoke eater, and nightly (drizzle?) rain which clears the air
Click to expand...

The smoke has been gone for the past two weeks or so.
 
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