It's that time of year again...

azure

azure

Final Approach
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azure
Was planning to fly down to Block Island this morning because of the beautiful, early fall forecast down there. 67 and sunny, with light winds by afternoon. Here, was expecting to have to depart IFR, no biggie, right? And there is an inversion right at 3000 ft with warmer air above, so no chance of icing, right? Well a quick look at the skew-T for MPV shows that between 2000 and 3000 the temperature is right around 0C, and the T/DP curves join there. Perfect scenario for icing. Easy decision: no go. :(

I guess it's that time of year again. Funny, I've never thought ice would be an issue this early in the season, except at much higher altitudes. I guess the weather gods have their own plans. Damn.
 
Trees should be popping soon. Enjoy the scenery, the flying can get hosed pretty easy. Got skis or snowshoes to pass the winter I hope.
 
Yeah cross-country skies, ready to go. Because of the steepness of the hills I don't think cross country would be too much fun though. I'm thinking of getting snowshoes, just not sure where to buy. In Michigan it would have been easy: REI. Like most big national chains, REI does not exist in VT.
 
The Sugarbush airport in Warren turns into a xc ski place. Flat, might get boring, but is a pretty place. There is a LL Bean store in West Lebanon(NH), Dick's Sporting goods in Rutland. Those are the only big chains I can think of.
 
First frost warning for Monday am ,time to head south to Fla.
 
Meanwhile in Massachusetts/Southern NH, not much moisture at all:

skew-t_dry_KASH_scaled.png


As we come up on my second season with my instrument rating I'm wondering once again how much I will be left frustrated by lack of deice capability in my Cardinal.
 
Meanwhile, it remains sunny here in western Oregon and still getting into the 90s. Crews have been battling fires for the last couple months.
 
been in the triple digits here lately.. ready to turn off the a/c
 
the actual wx in New England yesterday was gorgeous I hear- kind of hard to get ice when there are no clouds . . . . You need to stop looking at the plots and diagrams and look out the window. I would not have hesitated to go based on that skew-t = the two never meet - they stay 5F apart at their closest points. Even so - if you somehow get a layer before the mixing starts with sun up - you just stay under it but at 2-3k you can climb through that to VFR on top long before you ice up with stratus - and if somehow get ice- you simply descend and let it melt 1500AGL . . ..

You had little chance of actual ice, no cumulus, 3000 of above freezing temps below you, an inversion layer and its warmer on top. . . . I'm not seeing the no-go here.
 
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Liz, the worst icing I've ever gotten was in NH about this time of year. Mid-September into Halloween and April are usually when it gets the most interesting.

Good call.
 
cmathis said:
The haze seems to have been horrible this year, not sure why but worse than normal it seemed.
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rbridges said:
the pop up thunderstorms have been crazy this year.
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You guys were both right...haze and storms both very bad this year. I bet there were only about half the normal VFR flyable days this summer compared to usual.
 
comanchepilot said:
the actual wx in New England yesterday was gorgeous I hear- kind of hard to get ice when there are no clouds . . . . You need to stop looking at the plots and diagrams and look out the window.
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Joe -- are you really giving that much credence to hearsay? :rofl:

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Seriously though, what makes you think I didn't look out the window? There was a MVFR stratus deck over eastern VT for most of the day. Sure, it was clear and sunny down in MA -- but I'd have to get there first, and I don't know the terrain well enough here yet to launch VFR under an MVFR ceiling. No, it was not a terribly thick layer, but there was a lot of low-level moisture trapped under the inversion and it was at, or below freezing. With very little room below the clouds in a lot of places, and anyway with low altitude radar coverage so poor that I would have been completely on my own if got iced up and couldn't climb above, I didn't see any outs in that scenario.
I would not have hesitated to go based on that skew-t = the two never meet - they stay 5F apart at their closest points.
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Not sure what skew-t you were looking at. The one that Dan posted was apparently from KASH or thereabouts -- about 100 nm south of me. I'm based at KMPV.
 
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