Is this really the time to buy?

Tom-D

Tom-D

Taxi to Parking
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Tom-D
Or would you wait to see what the market does after the election?
 
Are you talking about taking advantage of small market dips to add to your portfolio or are you talking about major realignment of your investments? If it is the latter it is a bit late to get into the game right now, July 2010 was a good time for that. If it is the former then you can always play it but it is very tough to time the market. No one can safely predict the future, even the next 10 days.
 
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I don't think the election is going to affect the market that much, I mean we really have two duds to choose from and it's hard to get very passionate for this election... maybe if MaObama gets the boot it will increase prices a little.
 
At the risk of Spin Zoning this, this election is more about voting AGAINST someone than it is voting FOR someone for me.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
At the risk of Spin Zoning this, this election is more about voting AGAINST someone than it is voting FOR someone for me.
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Sigh... the past several have been that way for me. This one is no different, but that certainly won't keep me from voting. At least I can get fairly passionate about who I'm voting against.

On topic, though, I guess it depends on your risk outlook and -- more importantly -- what you're buying.
 
I assume you're talking about a plane. If so, it seems to me there's better places than a plane to stick investment money. If you have the money and the plane is worth it to you, then IMHO, it's time to buy.
 
Honestly, the last candidate I actually voted "for" was John Anderson.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
At the risk of Spin Zoning this, this election is more about voting AGAINST someone than it is voting FOR someone for me.
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I agree, but, That's not really where I wanted this to end up. I was hoping that some one had a feel as to what the AIRCRAFT Market will do after the election, If O wins will it keep going down, If R wins will the prices start to go up?

Are these high gas prices holding the prices down?
 
Tom-D said:
I agree, but, That's not really where I wanted this to end up. I was hoping that some one had a feel as to what the AIRCRAFT Market will do after the election, If O wins will it keep going down, If R wins will the prices start to go up?

Are these high gas prices holding the prices down?
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Yes.

Maybe.

Yes.
 
Here's my thoughts - keep in mind they are worth exactly what you are paying for them.....

I don't think that the overall aircraft market is going to change all that much. Prices have gotten pretty bloody low particularly on most older aircraft, and I kind of doubt they will go much lower regardless of who is elected. If the demand goes down, I suspect you will see more people sit on their planes or let them go to waste. So, just like now, if you want a good airplane, you need to pony up. If you want a 'project', then you can get a deal.

What I do think will be affected more by the election is the cost of operation. Hard to tell what will happen if Romney wins. We may see fuel prices go down. If the Big O gets re-elected, however, I am pretty sure that we will see cost of operating an airplane sky rocket. Fuel is going to keep climbing and inflation is going to kill everything. I think there will be plenty of folks still operating piston singles (probably flying fewer hours), but the twin owners will be experiencing much weeping and nashing of teeth.

I really wouldn't be too worried about buying 170 right now. I would be alot more cautious to buy something bigger that burns alot more fuel.
 
No way the aircraft market is going up. Buy within your recreational budget dont tell yourself any asset appreciation lies. And enjoy.
 
To not go hurling off into SZ material, I think the prices of EVERYTHING depend upon the underlying un-reported inflation that's truly happening. Prices of everything are climbing, and fuel isn't the only thing. But... everything you do, everything you buy, all of it, is adversely affected by high fuel prices.

What's odd is, there really isn't anything significant that's quantifiable holding those prices up there. Production is way up, demand is down, and the various fears about Wars to End All Wars are coming out of the same regions of the world they have my entire life... so I can't figure out what's supporting the high per-barrel pricing.

Production companies seem to be making the lion's share of the profits. The refineries are squeezed pretty hard at both ends. Being that's what area I worked in, ancient days ago, for an oil company -- Trading and Transportation groups, which were run together by that particular company -- I can't figure out why traders would be stuck buying crude at really inflated prices to feed their refineries. (In those companies that run their own refineries and are big enough.)

I also see multiple repeats of record profits... not just high profits, but the most profit the company has EVER made, happening quarter after quarter for the big all-inclusive oil companies.

Something is very broke in the system, and I'm not sure it can all be blamed on Commodities speculation. Some feedback loop is busted. I haven't figured out where yet.

Or... the other possibility... the dollar just really isn't worth what they want you to believe it's worth. That's a distinct possibility. Holes in that theory include that while I know there's ways to manipulate the "official" inflation numbers, I'm trying to figure out how the manipulation isn't being seen, nor talked about.

Very odd.
 
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ClimbnSink said:
No way the aircraft market is going up. Buy within your recreational budget dont tell yourself any asset appreciation lies. And enjoy.
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Do you believe our money is devalued faster than aircraft ?
Will 40k buy as good of an aircraft in 2 years that 40k will now ?
 
I think so, and probably better. Demand continues to drop through attrition in pilot ranks and higher prices for almost everything associated with airplanes while supply remains relatively constant.
Tom-D said:
Do you believe our money is devalued faster than aircraft ?
Will 40k buy as good of an aircraft in 2 years that 40k will now ?
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Tom-D said:
Do you believe our money is devalued faster than aircraft ?
Will 40k buy as good of an aircraft in 2 years that 40k will now ?
Click to expand...

Why wait? The bottom could drop out, but in two years you probably wont be any better at predicting the next two years. What is the personal value of not flying for two years? I think it is more of a personal value decision on ownership then rational market speculation. Would 40k in a boat, camper, or given to the kids make you happier?
 
ClimbnSink said:
Why wait? The bottom could drop out, but in two years you probably wont be any better at predicting the next two years. What is the personal value of not flying for two years? I think it is more of a personal value decision on ownership then rational market speculation. Would 40k in a boat, camper, or given to the kids make you happier?
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Agreed; while airplanes, especially older airplanes are not sound investment strategies, I wouldn't wait I don't think the economy, or President will appreciably change over the next couple of years.

Fuel prices will undoubtedly increase, but there's no stopping that. If you're buying a plane because you want to fly, it shouldn't make a difference. if you're on the fence because a change in the economy will break you then you probably be shouldn't put money in an airplae of any sort.

Mike-
 
A very timely question for me at this stage of my life. The chief breadwinner and She Who Must Be Obeyed, (SWMBO), has announced she will retire in two years if things in her practice continue as they currently are. Which puts me at a point of decision. I'm not getting any younger, and so I am looking at moving into a plane or planes,(a really nice one or two kinda nice ones for different missions), which will in all probability be the last one(s) I ever buy. These are my issues:

1.) I've never owned a new airplane, kinda would like to just once.
2.) Never owned a classic, kinda would like to just once.
3.) Wife wants a nice touring machine to see the US/Canada when she is not shopping for her dream vacation home in,(gulp), France.
4.) My budget is thankfully kinda flexible but in the low seven figures.
5.) No concern about resale value.....the kids will have to deal with that. :D
 
Threefingeredjack said:
1.) I've never owned a new airplane, kinda would like to just once.
2.) Never owned a classic, kinda would like to just once.
3.) Wife wants a nice touring machine to see the US/Canada when she is not shopping for her dream vacation home in,(gulp), France.
4.) My budget is thankfully kinda flexible but in the low seven figures.
5.) No concern about resale value.....the kids will have to deal with that. :D
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1) Do it.
2) Don't do it. LOL.
3) Yikes.
4) Pretty sure you can work with that. :)
5) Spend their inheritance, they can buy their own damn airplane. :)
 
Threefingeredjack said:
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3.) Wife wants a nice touring machine to see the US/Canada when she is not shopping for her dream vacation home in,(gulp), France.[snip]
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If you're going to France you definitely need a twin...:D

John
 
Threefingeredjack said:
Yes....but 777s, 787s, & A330s ARE twins. :D
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That's a 747-400 friend and driver's joke whenever we chat. He tells me to say hi to our friend who flies "the light twin". Said light twin is the 777. ;)

He also says to let him know he's still enjoying driving 18-wheelers for a living. :) :) :)
 
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