IF domestic travel is restricted...

bobmrg said:
Watch what is happening overseas...shutting down theaters, restaurants, bars, anywhere people congregate....and it is working (except in Italy, which got a late start). I think that Americans are going to have to give up some of the freedoms we cherish for a brief period of time until we get past this.

Bob Gardner[/Q
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455 Bravo Uniform said:
How do you mean? Like panic will cause collapse soon? Or panic will now subside from here?
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Thinking practically, there is only so much room in one's house to store toilet paper
 
midwestpa24 said:
I take the numbers out of China with a grain of salt for two reasons. One China has been trying to cover this up from the get go. I wouldn't be surprised to find out those numbers are seriously underreported. Secondly the outbreak slowed dramatically when China, a communist country, locked their citizens in their apartment complexes and banned anyone from going outside. That will obviously stop the spread.

In the US, it will be difficult if not nearly impossible to shut down 100%. People will outright refuse to self quarantine, as some already have.

That being said, the TP hoarding is ridiculous. The people buying up supplies and reselling at ridiculous prices should be prosecuted. I don't buy into the hype, but believe in being prepared. The virus gives me a little concern, for those who have other medical issues that will make it worse, and including myself. I had a similar viral pneumonia episode about 10 years ago. It left me quarantined in a hospital for over a week, and honestly wished I was dying. I don't want to relive that experience, and am at least curious if that makes me any more susceptible to this bug.
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Denying flag waving God fearing Americans the right to buy a commodity and sell it at a higher price smacks of communism. It's the stuff of free enterprise! God Bless the USA! On 2nd thought I'm heading to Costco now. Hope I can find some tp since I'm almost out;)
 
Archer Jack said:
Denying flag waving God fearing Americans the right to buy a commodity and sell it at a higher price smacks of communism. It's the stuff of free enterprise! God Bless the USA! On 2nd thought I'm heading to Costco now. Hope I can find some tp since I'm almost out;)
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I realize your response was tongue-in-cheek.

What was happening was effectively micro-monopolizing. I go out and buy up an entire product. There is now no competition, which is a core part of capitalism. I can now set the price as high as I can manage to get people to spend. In a crisis, or if you prefer "crisis", panic and fear increase how much people are willing to spend.
 
JOhnH said:
George Washington was my age when he died; 67.
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Exactly.

FormerHangie said:
Life expectancy less than 40 years.
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I fell an uncontrollable need to say this every time someone posts about historical "life expectancy."

It's not "life expectancy" but "average life expectancy." And the average life expectancy being so low was due to the high infant/child mortality. If you could make it through childhood back then, you were probably going to live to be a relatively old person. The kids dying was what brought the average life span down. It wasn't uncommon for parents to lose multiple children due to small pox, measles, polio, rubella, whooping cough, and even, yes, influenza. The world was a dangerous place to be a kid, but there wasn't a planet full of 40-somethings on their deathbeds. Sure, we have better end-of-life care nowadays, but that's not what brings the average life expectancy up to what it is today.
 
Sluggo63 said:
Exactly.


I fell an uncontrollable need to say this every time someone posts about historical "life expectancy."

It's not "life expectancy" but "average life expectancy." And the average life expectancy being so low was due to the high infant/child mortality. If you could make it through childhood back then, you were probably going to live to be a relatively old person. The kids dying was what brought the average life span down. It wasn't uncommon for parents to lose multiple children due to small pox, measles, polio, rubella, whooping cough, and even, yes, influenza. The world was a dangerous place to be a kid, but there wasn't a planet full of 40-somethings on their deathbeds. Sure, we have better end-of-life care nowadays, but that's not what brings the average life expectancy up to what it is today.
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In doing research into my family history, that's one thing that surprised me. Back in the 18th and 19th centuries, there were a lot of children who died either from disease or accidents. Not a big shock there. There were also a lot of old codgers lasting well into their 80s; that was something that did surprise me.
 
DaleB said:
In doing research into my family history, that's one thing that surprised me. Back in the 18th and 19th centuries, there were a lot of children who died either from disease or accidents. Not a big shock there. There were also a lot of old codgers lasting well into their 80s; that was something that did surprise me.
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Exactly. People lived a long time back then. But there was a lot of child deaths.

Looking at my Mom's side of the family, and age at death:
Grandfather: 82
Grandmother: 99
Aunt: 87 (still alive)
Mother: 60

The average age for their nuclear family is 82.

But... My mother also had 3 siblings that didn't make it past their second birthday.
Add in those aunts and uncles of mine and all of a sudden the average life expectancy goes from 82 down to 48.
 
midwestpa24 said:
I was simply quoting numbers from the CDC, the supposed material experts in this matter. You are refuting their numbers. I was just inquiring how you came up with your numbers?
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What numbers did I come up with?

If you are going to quote numbers from the CDC make sure you put them in context. The 1million number is used as a reference for one model only to establish an extreme limit. No one from CDC is saying that is a real possibility here.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
What numbers did I come up with?

If you are going to quote numbers from the CDC make sure you put them in context. The 1million number is used as a reference for one model only to establish an extreme limit. No one from CDC is saying that is a real possibility here.
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Sorry mixed you up with Morgan's response. He stated it wouldn't pass 20,000. I asked where his those numbers came from.

In my original post, I quoted the CDCs numbers of 200,000 to 1.2 million. That was a direct quote from the CDC, not much context to put it in. I never claimed to be a subject matter expert, was just quoting what the CDC had to say. I even included their quote that this was worst case, did nothing, scenario. Not sure how much clearer I could be.
 
Archer Jack said:
Denying flag waving God fearing Americans the right to buy a commodity and sell it at a higher price smacks of communism. It's the stuff of free enterprise! God Bless the USA! On 2nd thought I'm heading to Costco now. Hope I can find some tp since I'm almost out
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I mean... nothing stops pharmaceuticals from putting enormous mark ups on the drugs they sell.. somehow society allows and accepts that. Any attempt to reign in medical costs is met with pitchforks. However some guy buys up "purell futures" and attempts to sell them at a mark up and he's a social pariah. People don't realize the same is done with their pills. For the record, I don't agree AT ALL with what he did, or with what our medical industry does charging $700 for a $1 bag of saline (example).. but society accepts one thing and not the other

As far as the media is concerned, they're useless ungoverned trash. They not only add zero value, they actually serve a detrimental role. Luckily we have things like science, and in the age of technology most people (the ones who care enough) can get their hands on the facts of something, IE, looking at the CDC data themselves, finding first hand interviews, etc., but we're at a stage where the media has completely run amok. Free speech is important, as is freedom of the press, so it makes it very hard to reign something like a runaway media in though

Good news is, people are wisening up, places like CNN have deplorable viewerships and more and more people are cutting cable and getting their news from a diverse array, and the last election cycle really blew the door open on the echo chamber fake news charade that Facebook was pedaling

One (slow) step at a time. I have faith in our people.

Mind you, we also live in the age of hyperbole now.. "stock loses X points" doesn't carry the same vigor as "stock plunges XX points in panic nosedive" .. one is a fact, the other asserts motive and emotion designed to change how the audience consumes that fact
 
midwestpa24 said:
Sorry mixed you up with Morgan's response. He stated it wouldn't pass 20,000. I asked where his those numbers came from.

In my original post, I quoted the CDCs numbers of 200,000 to 1.2 million. That was a direct quote from the CDC, not much context to put it in. I never claimed to be a subject matter expert, was just quoting what the CDC had to say. I even included their quote that this was worst case, did nothing, scenario. Not sure how much clearer I could be.
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Well since we have done something we know the deaths will be less than 200,000 - 1.2 million. Glad we agree on that point.

there will not be millions of deaths.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Well since we have done something we know the deaths will be less than 200,000 - 1.2 million. Glad we agree on that point.

there will not be millions of deaths.
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We can hope. Measures have been taken to try to reduce those numbers. It remains to be seen if those measures have the expected effect.

One thing I have seen today, they say it appears smokers and vapers may be more susceptible to this virus, as their lungs already have some level of damage. A lot of the younger generation is sticking to the numbers that say they aren't going to get sick and die, but I wonder if those numbers in foreign countries take into account the differences in lifestyles.
 
Luigi said:
Well, the governor of Colorado ordered all Co ski areas to close for at least a week last night.
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Left Telluride Saturday after a great week of skiing ... am POSITIVE they didn't see this one coming ...

Groundpounder said:
At least that is my hope. I'm in Mexico on a trip, going home Saturday.
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I literally live on the border (can see Mexico from my house). Mexico actually is threatening to lock THEIR border from us:eek: If you need to go "illegal alien style", the area between KDNA and Columbus NM only has a single strand of barbed wire as our "border wall"... just saying ... other low watched area is near Lajitas Texas. Just get a serious anglo accent and state,"Yo tengo Corona! Quien es el Jefon aqui?".
 
Tantalum said:
Mind you, we also live in the age of hyperbole now.. "stock loses X points" doesn't carry the same vigor as "stock plunges XX points in panic nosedive" .. one is a fact, the other asserts motive and emotion designed to change how the audience consumes that fact
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I've had fun drinking beer with you man, but I'm gonna call you out on this. While I don't disagree with your point, of everyone on PoA you're the king of hyperbolic language. ;)
 
midwestpa24 said:
We can hope. Measures have been taken to try to reduce those numbers. It remains to be seen if those measures have the expected effect.

One thing I have seen today, they say it appears smokers and vapers may be more susceptible to this virus, as their lungs already have some level of damage. A lot of the younger generation is sticking to the numbers that say they aren't going to get sick and die, but I wonder if those numbers in foreign countries take into account the differences in lifestyles.
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Ok. Whatever
 
kayoh190 said:
I've had fun drinking beer with you man, but I'm gonna call you out on this. While I don't disagree with your point, of everyone on PoA you're the king of hyperbolic language. ;)
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Yeah I've had my fair amount of "Skyhawks are raging piles of trash" comments.. but I feel like it's one thing to play around online and another when it comes to the world and real life "plus Skyhawks are terrible"

I don't walk into a meeting at work and say "our patheting revenue took a disgraceful nosedive in the trash last quarter" .. I use a more eloquent "revenue was 5 pts below forecast, largely due to unexpected market headeinds"

But maybe that's what I've been doing wrong my whole life, I should be more serious here and do hyperbole in real life?

"Cleared for the VOR? What a pathetic approach! Are you freaking kidding me??" <- curious how ATC would react
 
dreyna14 said:
According to their fee schedule, LAX landing fees only apply for air carriers. Unless, of course, I missed something (likely).
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I clearly recall two landings at KMIA whe a dude in a golf kart showed up shortly after I shut down and handed me a $120.00 bill.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Gut. China, with all of its issues, only had about 80k fatalities. If even double that number, statistically a non-event. Every day on average about 3800 people die in the United States from various causes. I am just not buying into the fear and mania promulgated by the media. And I’m disappointed and ashamed of my fellow citizens who perpetuate it. I am disappointed and ashamed of my fellow citizen buying up boxes of toilet paper and other items based on fear. I have had several first hand accounts from people that contradict the media scary reporting. The media is exaggerating and outright lying to sell product.
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But what would you say if this was an Ebola outbreak? If only 100 people died from Ebola in NYC, who cares? Tomorrow it is 400, but still lower than the normal death rate so who cares? You have to look at the future and use predictions, some are right, some are not, but do you want to risk a new virus that sticks around every year and kills 100,000+ more people?
 
I’d be much less concerned about an ebola break out. As you have to have direct contact with a persons bodily fluids to contract it. You have to work at getting ebola. Pick another disease for your example. Maybe some mosquito born hemorrhagic fever?

Personally, I am much more worried about developing Alzheimer’s or dementia. Aside from the long lingering death it has a huge societal impact both financially and personally. I think you’re worried about the wrong thing.But don’t let me stop you.

Matthew Rogers said:
But what would you say if this was an Ebola outbreak? If only 100 people died from Ebola in NYC, who cares? Tomorrow it is 400, but still lower than the normal death rate so who cares? You have to look at the future and use predictions, some are right, some are not, but do you want to risk a new virus that sticks around every year and kills 100,000+ more people?
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Matthew Rogers said:
But what would you say if this was an Ebola outbreak? If only 100 people died from Ebola in NYC, who cares? Tomorrow it is 400, but still lower than the normal death rate so who cares? You have to look at the future and use predictions, some are right, some are not, but do you want to risk a new virus that sticks around every year and kills 100,000+ more people?
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Ebola forecasts were quite pessimistic, compared to reality.
https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-017-0811-y

Not sure the same won't be true this time. Data collection and data integrity is terrible in the early stages of an outbreak, and the forecasts based on that early data cannot accurately predict a dynamic future where precautions begin, diagnosis and treatment improve, more minor and non-lethal cases get added to the database, etc.
 
Morgan3820 said:
I’d be much less concerned about an ebola break out. As you have to have direct contact with a persons bodily fluids to contract it. You have to work at getting ebola. Pick another disease for your example. Maybe some mosquito born hemorrhagic fever?

Personally, I am much more worried about developing Alzheimer’s or dementia. Aside from the long lingering death it has a huge societal impact both financially and personally. I think you’re worried about the wrong thing.But don’t let me stop you.
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Actually not since I live with my 4 year old and my 70 year old father who is in current chemotherapy treatments for pancreatic cancer. If anyone is at risk for corona, my dad fits the bill. Living with someone who has a 10-20% chance of death if infected (using average case fatality with a fudge factor for the active chemo treatments and lowered immune system) because of a virus that I could pick up from a door handle is not a great situation.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
Actually not since I live with my 4 year old and my 70 year old father who is in current chemotherapy treatments for pancreatic cancer. If anyone is at risk for corona, my dad fits the bill. Living with someone who has a 10-20% chance of death if infected (using average case fatality with a fudge factor for the active chemo treatments and lowered immune system) because of a virus that I could pick up from a door handle is not a great situation.
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I agree with your personal concerns. I would be concerned as well. But I think that we could have helped your father without panic buying, tanking the economy and generally shutting down society.
 
Certainly the panic buying should be stopped, but we did stock up on food as we are generally staying home for two months until his treatments are finished and his risk level decreases. There is no way that we can ensure that we don’t bring the virus home with us if we go out more than is absolutely necessary. If one of us falls ill, he will get infected in the 5 day “infected but asymptomatic” period.

My workshop building on the property and I randomly have lots of work (especially since I can’t bring in outside workers right now to help), my wife can luckily work from home, school is cancelled. So other than a weekly trip to the private Airpark to fly for an hour (rarely see another person there anyway and easy enough to keep 100’ away) and a trip every two weeks to the grocery store with disposable gloves and mask, we are home for the long haul.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
Certainly the panic buying should be stopped, but we did stock up on food as we are generally staying home for two months until his treatments are finished and his risk level decreases. There is no way that we can ensure that we don’t bring the virus home with us if we go out more than is absolutely necessary. If one of us falls ill, he will get infected in the 5 day “infected but asymptomatic” period.

My workshop building on the property and I randomly have lots of work (especially since I can’t bring in outside workers right now to help), my wife can luckily work from home, school is cancelled. So other than a weekly trip to the private Airpark to fly for an hour (rarely see another person there anyway and easy enough to keep 100’ away) and a trip every two weeks to the grocery store with disposable gloves and mask, we are home for the long haul.
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I am so glad that things are working out for you. Where as my daughter’s long anticipated summer study abroad is toast. She lost her job at school because it has shut down for the semester. My plans to retire from a job that I hate have been postponed indefinitely because of the stock market and my 401k has been destroyed. So glad things are working out for you...
 
Morgan3820 said:
I am so glad that things are working out for you. Where as my daughter’s long anticipated summer study abroad is toast. She lost her job at school because it has shut down for the semester. My plans to retire from a job that I hate have been postponed indefinitely because of the stock market and my 401k has been destroyed. So glad things are working out for you...
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How does my post even sound like I am bragging? We (5 of us) are not leaving our property more than once a week for anything all because my father has cancer. Yep, definitely in a situation to be envied by all. I’ll trade your postponed retirement and daughters lost job for pancreatic cancer any day. Take the cancer, you can have it.
 
Don’t wish that on anyone, personally. On an individual level it is a crisis. I have lost friends to cancer.
However, right or wrong, this reaction to the Corona virus is being widely perceived by the younger generations as a complete, huge overreaction by the baby boomer generation. A generation that they already have hard feelings for as they feel that the Boomers are a whiny, self centered group that have left them with a big mess. Millions of these younger people have just lost their job and what little stability they have struggled to accumulate and are placing the blame firmly on the Boomers. Now, They care even less for the Boomer generation.
 
401(k) in the crapper? Mine, too. Guess we both should have planned better, right? Yeah, I'll freely admit it. I knew the bull market was overdue for a bust, as anyone who ever reads anything should have known too. I let greed and inertia triumph over reason and experience... I saw this same stupid thing happen in 2008, and failed to act in time then (despite numerous warnings) as well. Ah, well. I haven't actually lost anything unless and until I sell. The only "loss" is in the current valuation, which will eventually recover and carry on as if nothing had happened. Sucks that I won't be able to bid this job adieu this year, though, like I had kind of hoped. As my late father told me many times...

"Too soon old, too late smart."

On the bright side, the IRA into which I rolled my last job's 401(k) has done better. I siphoned off some into bonds, and some into income producing real estate -- assuming, of course, anyone survives to rent the house. And I've bumped up my 401(k) contribution as much as I can bear, now that there's a fire sale going on.
 
Any suggestions which bonds to invest in?
 
murphey said:
Any suggestions which bonds to invest in?
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The bond market is squirrelly as heck right now. It’s ridiculously volatile. Not making any sense. Probably because everyone is going straight to cash instead.

Consider what bonds actually represent. Not a lot of confidence that they will be paid, depending on how long the shutdowns last and how deep and broad (or not) the bailouts will be.
 
Sluggo63 said:
Exactly.
I fell an uncontrollable need to say this every time someone posts about historical "life expectancy."
It's not "life expectancy" but "average life expectancy." And the average life expectancy being so low was due to the high infant/child mortality. If you could make it through childhood back then, you were probably going to live to be a relatively old person. The kids dying was what brought the average life span down. It wasn't uncommon for parents to lose multiple children due to small pox, measles, polio, rubella, whooping cough, and even, yes, influenza. The world was a dangerous place to be a kid, but there wasn't a planet full of 40-somethings on their deathbeds. Sure, we have better end-of-life care nowadays, but that's not what brings the average life expectancy up to what it is today.
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It still means that you probably wouldn't be here now if things hadn't changed. Many of us wouldn't. Things got better and improved the outlook for most people.

Industrial accidents killed a lot of people too, especially men. That has changed as well.
 
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