How Long Cheap Oil ?

Art VanDelay

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So oil people enlighten me - how long will these prices last ? Some talking head on one of the financial networks was prognosticating $35.00/Barrel oil shortly. A year ago it was circa $92.00/Barrel, today it went down a little to $46.08.
 
Don't know. Sounds like OPEC ain't scared to ride it to a mighty low number. If we were willing, we could tell them to suck it and set our own prices. Cheap gasoline rocks, but I personally feel like somewhere around $50-$60/bbl works out best for all of us.

We've kind of ****ed off the OPEC folks with our shale oil boom. They don't want us being anywhere near capable of being able to meet our own oil needs, and they sure as heck don't want us to become a net exporter. Sounds like they seek to put our producers out of business. With all of our rules and regs, taxes, high wages, and mostly because most of our new shale oil comes from more expensive horizontal wells, most of our producers will start stacking out rigs wayyyy before the Middle Eastern producers even flinch. The horizontal wells we're drilling cost somewhere around 3-5 times more to complete than a conventional vertical well bore. About $15 million a pop. But they are generally quite a bit higher yield than conventional wells.

However, I smell something fishy going on in regards to the oil prices. Haven't quite put my finger on it yet, but I have my suspicions. I'll leave it at that.

I'm sure Henning is typing up a theory as I type this post.
 
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The only things preventing KSA from being Syria is KSA's market share in the oil market and the US military camped there. KSA needs to keep the money flowing into their astronomical welfare system. The US middle class supports the entire Saudi population in a high degree of comfort up to opulence, and they complain about food stamps in the US.
 
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Makes me wonder what's going on in all those countries that need it to be above $75/Barrel ? And how they'll react if it stays low long term ?
 
Makes me wonder what's going on in all those countries that need it to be above $75/Barrel ? And how they'll react if it stays low long term ?

Venezuela is like crap, and there are a lot of speculators sitting on a lot of expensive oil they are paying a lot to store on tankers. This is the fastest way KSA can bring down Israel, they can make the financial sector eat themselves.
 
So oil people enlighten me - how long will these prices last ? Some talking head on one of the financial networks was prognosticating $35.00/Barrel oil shortly. A year ago it was circa $92.00/Barrel, today it went down a little to $46.08.

The current futures market shows sub $50 oil for the next 12 months. Of course a year ago it showed $90+ (or so, I'm primarily in gas not oil) oil for the next 12 months...

It gets really complicated when you look at hedged positions and required cash flows for the OPEC countries. In 08 we (peanut gallery) speculated that OPEC hedged everything and then flooded the market/allowed the price collapse. The word was that the hedge market was large enough to allow that to happen. The end result was world economic disruption while the oil producers laugh all the way to the bank.

This go around could be the same deal. All the producers hedge to one degree or another so no producers are hurting for cash as long as people keep buying at any price. In a year or so when the hedges expire then folks will look at cutting production to restore market prices and maintain cash flow in the exporting countries.

US shale production is a red herring - it's swing production. Folks talk about US energy independence but if you actually dig into the numbers we are a long way from that. Yes, US shale production does have an impact on market balance but that's about it. In time worldwide shale/unconventional production will likely impact OPEC and they may be trying to stop that game, dunno. The writing is on the wall for OPEC that they will eventually lose their dominance. It's inevitable and part of the depleting resource game. I think OPEC realizes that they are late "middle game" and are adjusting. FWIW, the big exporters run planning models that are pretty sophisticated. They hire some of the same people the US hires so same source code, different flag.
 
based on what a few of the talking heads are saying....oil could seek a $60/barrel target and be there for a while. $45/barrel is the break even price point for the US shale guys....so.

This is a big win for the US economy.....

It wouldn't surprise me to see sub $40/barrel prices until things shake out. :yes:
 
Just need to get rid of the truck and get a prius while oil is cheap. Oh wait I need a bigger truck.:lol:
 
Makes me wonder what's going on in all those countries that need it to be above $75/Barrel ? And how they'll react if it stays low long term ?

The big bear is being starved. Russia is heavily dependent on oil sales to fund it's economy. KSA and the US have grown a bit tired of Putin so now the best way to control him is to cut off funds (reduced oil revenue) The USA and KSA can weather the downturn, Russia cannot.

Putin is now retaliating by cutting gas supplies to Europe.

Stay tuned.
 
Putin is now retaliating by cutting gas supplies to Europe.

Great strategy. Revenues are down, so let's cut them further.

Don't we have big NG reserves? At some point it will be economical for us to ship NG to Europe.
 
Great strategy. Revenues are down, so let's cut them further.

Don't we have big NG reserves? At some point it will be economical for us to ship NG to Europe.

I think the Russians really don't care about the cost when it comes to getting their way. Stalin was a great leader in that respect. :yikes:

People talk about shipping NG and it is done on a small scale. So far it just isn't particularly interesting in an economic sense. The US regulatory environment isn't particularly friendly to building the facilities for export. Some folks have talked about exporting gas to Mexico and then putting it on ships there.

It'd be great if we could build a pipeline to Europe but those underwater compressor stations are a real pain in the ass to build and maintain.
 
$45/barrel is the break even price point for the US shale guys..

I thought that figure was closer to $60...$65 / bbl (for new, not existing), Clark?

What I've been wondering is if the current, and projected future, oil price makes the whole Keystone XL Pipeline debate moot. I suspect the tar sands break even is in the $70...$75 range. Again, Clark?
 
It will start back up after the gov. Increases the taxes on oil. Or the day after I buy a twin.
 
I thought that figure was closer to $60...$65 / bbl (for new, not existing), Clark?

What I've been wondering is if the current, and projected future, oil price makes the whole Keystone XL Pipeline debate moot. I suspect the tar sands break even is in the $70...$75 range. Again, Clark?

I haven't worked oil production in years so my numbers are a bit dated. On the Bakken stuff I worked the project was self funding at $75/bbl, drilling and completion costs were in the rough neighborhood of 10-15 $/bbl. Land costs were all over the place but they were approaching the drilling and completion costs. Lifting costs aren't bad early in the life of the well but move towards $10/bbl pretty quickly. Transportation was/is expensive and was equal to lifting costs. Of course the completion costs have gone up as drilling moved out of the "sweet spots." That said, the costs haven't doubled.

All the sunk costs won't impact today's production since the lifting and transport costs are still covered. As drilling stops, and it will at $40 oil, production is going to drop like a rock. We'll lose half our Bakken production in a year.

It's been 10 years since I worked for a company with heavy oil sand production. Back then the costs were in the 20 to 30 $/bbl range. Those projects were marginally economic in the early years of this century. An interesting side note (for oil geeks) is the size of those projects and their capital requirements helped force reform in oil company valuation. Of course the deepwater Gulf of Mexico projects were also a factor in those political struggles.
 

Yep, what happens when 'investing' becomes 'speculation' and bets are placed from misinterpreted 'charts'. Doesn't particularly matter which view one takes of it, the results will be the same. In this case it's not the economic down turn that is forcing the price drop, but rather the price drop that will force economic down turn.

The result will be the same regardless because we are coming into an economic end game here. There are no interest rates left to cut, there is no more mineral that can be jacked up, there just is no more that can be thrown in to keep the Ponzi scheme rolling. All the Fed has left is half of everything they created during QE sitting in their 'vault' back on deposit from the banks they issued it to (of course there is an extra interest and handling fee on that for keeping the money out of the economy), the question is, what will this cash reserve be worth and what will its implementation mean to the economy as a whole?
 
I haven't worked oil production in years so my numbers are a bit dated. On the Bakken stuff I worked the project was self funding at $75/bbl, drilling and completion costs were in the rough neighborhood of 10-15 $/bbl. Land costs were all over the place but they were approaching the drilling and completion costs. Lifting costs aren't bad early in the life of the well but move towards $10/bbl pretty quickly. Transportation was/is expensive and was equal to lifting costs. Of course the completion costs have gone up as drilling moved out of the "sweet spots." That said, the costs haven't doubled.

All the sunk costs won't impact today's production since the lifting and transport costs are still covered. As drilling stops, and it will at $40 oil, production is going to drop like a rock. We'll lose half our Bakken production in a year.

It's been 10 years since I worked for a company with heavy oil sand production. Back then the costs were in the 20 to 30 $/bbl range. Those projects were marginally economic in the early years of this century. An interesting side note (for oil geeks) is the size of those projects and their capital requirements helped force reform in oil company valuation. Of course the deepwater Gulf of Mexico projects were also a factor in those political struggles.


Can't speak for everyone, but some of the producers have been saying they're okay down to around $40-$45 down here in the SCOOP (South Central Oklahoma Oil Province), aka Woodford Shale. In fact, one of the major players has recently committed to sticking with their original drilling plans for the foreseeable future, however, some are also ramping down their Bakken operations to put more eggs in the Woodford Shale basket. It sounds like it's a little cheaper to operate down here. I'm surprised, considering the $15 million+ well bores.

I'm in Gas Processing, not in drilling or production, so I'm certainly no expert. We are getting the majority of our new gas from the SCOOP wells though, so I do have a great interest in what's going on. My company has been building new processing facilities to accommodate all the new gas.
It's been a nice little boom around here, and there will be a nice little bust to follow., as always. I just hope it's several years down the road.
 
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