How can this happen?

N521MA

N521MA

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Feb 13, 2013
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FlyBoy
Okay, you can ***** slap me later, but I still want a legit explanation, not just "things happen".

Per NTSB reports, there are ton of people that have unfortunate flights and leave our world, hopefully for a better place; I can understand that and it does happen everyday for whatever the reasons are. What I am personally struggling with is to understand how this stuff happens to a CFI(I) with ton of other ratings and most importantly I am talking specifically a person that doesn't just have multiple ratings and flies occasionally, but actually flies for 8 to 12 hours almost everyday. Furthermore, we are not going into HP planes or covering IMC condition - simple daily trainers like Warriors and 172s at CAVU conditions, no students on flight, CFI flying solo and still manages to get wiped out.

How is this even possible? What chance does the rest of our community have? I don't want to sound paranoid or scared, which I am in a way, but at the same time I am very active when it comes to activity. I do extreme skiing, ride all kinds of Motorcycles, drive insanely fast cars but also very focused on controlling and managing my risk as I am not suicidal and prefer to see another day ;)

button line, when I get on the motorcycle - I know there are two types of riders 1. Those that have been down 2. Those that will go down. I happen to joined the #1 crowd few times already and trust me its no fun to be put back together... But we're talking motorcycles .... it is something I expect and knew this will happen sooner or later. Now... When I see CFII crash and burn because he flew into terrain (of every kind) - what chance do we, as weekend warrior have to see another day??? Yes I know CFII are not Gods and human too that do make errors as all of us, but given their experience and mine, for example, from a risk factor prospective I should not be even on a ramp standing next to an airplane, forget flying it ....

Perhaps there is no explanation. We do what we love and pray to God that he lets us do it once more. Perhaps you have a different opinion.
 
First, there is nothing at all inevitable about motorcycle crashes. Keep good situational awareness and keep off unmaneuverable bikes and you can ride crash free in to a ripe old age. A quarter century for me. Not that it can't happen, but it isn't necessarily going to.

Murphy can bite anyone at any time. Any of us can make a mistake in judgement. Any of us can wind up at the bottom of a smoking crater. That's why they call it dangerous.
 
**** happens, stuff breaks. If you want absolute safety I would reccomend World of Warcraft. Not to say small airplanes aren't safe, because I think they are - just saying something bad can happen to anyone.
 
Only the riders who have been down say that "only two kinds of riders" stuff. I dropped my first bike in a parking lot once -- it's not smart to ride on ice. As Steingar said, crashing your motorcycle is not inevitable.

I've never heard of someone just flying along, minding their own business, not doing anything that would get them killed and suddenly flying into terrain. I have yet to read an NTSB report and not think one of two things:


  1. Gee, poor guy. If the mechanic hadn't screwed up that annual, the wing wouldn't have snapped off in flight.
  2. Gee, if the pilot hadn't done that series of things that got him killed, he'd still be around to enjoy flying. He really should have known better.
simple daily trainers like Warriors and 172s at CAVU conditions, no students on flight, CFI flying solo and still manages to get wiped out.
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Then my bet would be that he (or possibly the mechanic) did something he knew was dumb, or failed to do something he knew he should have. There's always a reason.


I include the mechanic thing because I remember one accident report where the A&P failed to properly service & lube the strut attach bolt on a 172. It corroded through and a wing snapped off in flight. Not the pilot's fault; that's not an item you'd reasonably expect to check on preflight. But it's not like it's a common occurrence, either.


There is a legitimate explanation for every single crash, and that explanation is known for most of them. If you read them, you learn about a lot of things you should always do, and a lot of things not to ever do.
 
Explaining the inexplicable has always been difficult.
 
I think the only time when I am actually giggling while reading NTSB reports when the final verdict says - the pilot was stoned out of his mind! :D

All other accidents (pilot/mechanical) make me think and scratch my head especially on the way to the airport.

As for the stoned pilots - at least they had a nice roller-coaster before the lights went out.

Sorry for the sarcasm....
 
You can try to have control over a situation as much as you want, sometimes the situation wins. Your looking at flying, but look around in your daily life activities and see how many people die doing things they do daily. Me I choose to live my life and don't worry about "what if".
 
Suggest you read Fate is the Hunter if you haven't already.

It may not answer your questions but may give you some insight/perspective on the issue that seems to bother you.
 
N521MA said:
Okay, you can ***** slap me later, but I still want a legit explanation, not just "things happen".
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Since you are asking the general public, I am more than happy to try to explain, but cannot do so until you provide specific details about the accident event or events that concern you.

Otherwise your vague angst about bad things happening to allegedly experienced pilots deserves an equally vague "things happen" response.
 
N521MA said:
Okay --

button line, when I get on the motorcycle - I know there are two types of riders 1. Those that have been down 2. Those that will go down.
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There is an equivalent saying for pilots:

For those flying bent leg craft:
1. Those that have landed gear Up
2. Those that will


((no, I haven't yet --- come close many a time, but no pink balloon so far ))

And the one where the Arrow kept popping the breaker to the hydraulic pump doesn't count
 
Odin needs good pilots to deliver mead in Valhalla.
 
DavidWhite said:
**** happens, stuff breaks. If you want absolute safety I would reccomend World of Warcraft. Not to say small airplanes aren't safe, because I think they are - just saying something bad can happen to anyone.
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Can't even recommend WoW, don't you remember those Koreans that died playing it a few days straight? :)
 
I wonder the same thing every time an experienced pilot buys the farm.

Sparky Imeson, Steve Fossett, Scott Crossfield.

The common factor seems to be they were bitten by the same things on Doc Bruce's list that gets many lesser pilots. Why? I do not know.
 
All of these have a plausible explanation.

Mason said:
I wonder the same thing every time an experienced pilot buys the farm.

Sparky Imeson, Steve Fossett, Scott Crossfield.

The common factor seems to be they were bitten by the same things on Doc Bruce's list that gets many lesser pilots. Why? I do not know.
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wsuffa said:
Then there was this: http://www.avherald.com/h?article=455c0bcf/0000&opt=0
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What can I say ..... Russians :D
(I grew up in Moscow until I was 12. I know first hand how things "used to be done" over there.
Trying to finder a sober driver between Dec. 31 and Jan 10 is like finding a needle in a haystack.

Almost 23 years later ... They are still the same. Nothing will change those people!!!! ROLF
 
Mason said:
The common factor seems to be they were bitten by the same things on Doc Bruce's list that gets many lesser pilots. Why? I do not know.
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They were human, just like you and me.
 
Just take a tour of your local rehab and then decide if the risks are worth the ride. I rode for years and enjoyed every minute of it till I moved to the city.

I even have motorcycle accident survivors approach me in public, one of which slurred baldy and I assumed he had a stroke to end up the way he was, until he told me his story.... was a motorcycle accident 30 yeas ago.


I have much more control over my own destiny in an airplane that on a busy street riding.
 
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How can what happen? We're not mind readers. Which accident are you talking about?
 
bnt83 said:
Just take a tour of your local rehab and then decide if the risks are worth the ride. I rode for years and enjoyed every minute of it till I moved to the city.

I even have motorcycle accident survivors approach me in public, one of which slurred baldy and I assumed he had a stroke to end up the way he was, until he told me his story.... was a motorcycle accident 30 yeas ago.
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Like I said, 25 years and counting. And if I crack up hard and wind up broken, I think the ride was well worth it. I am not one to sit in the basement and play at life on a video screen.
 
Just like in every other profession, there are instructors and some no so good instructors -- just like there are good doctors and some no good doctors, good lawyers and some not so good lawyers...

I personally know of a CFI who ran out of gas 5 miles fro their destination. I also know of a doctor who did surgery on a family member incorrectly resulting in another physician fixing the problem.

Just because you have an accreditation, degree, experience or certificate in a particular field, doesn't mean you are good at it.




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Marauder said:
Just like in every other profession, there are instructors and some no so good instructors -- just like there are good doctors and some no good doctors, good lawyers and some not so good lawyers...

I personally know of a CFI who ran out of gas 5 miles fro their destination. I also know of a doctor who did surgery on a family member incorrectly resulting in another physician fixing the problem.

Just because you have an accreditation, degree, experience or certificate in a particular field, doesn't mean you are good at it.




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That is all well and good, but doesn't answer why the credentialed and competent often die. I guess we can just call it pilot error say they really weren't that good afterall and fly away immortal until proven otherwise
 
ClimbnSink said:
That is all well and good, but doesn't answer why the credentialed and competent often die. I guess we can just call it pilot error say they really weren't that good afterall and fly away immortal until proven otherwise
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There is no one answer to that question.

Sometimes even the best make simple errors.

Sometimes something happens that is beyond the pilots control and there is nothing they can do.

While most accidents may be attributed to pilot error, not ALL accidents are. Accidents like Alaska 261 and Chalk 101 come to mind as ones where the pilots found themselves in no win situations.
 
ClimbnSink said:
That is all well and good, but doesn't answer why the credentialed and competent often die. I guess we can just call it pilot error say they really weren't that good afterall and fly away immortal until proven otherwise
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You're assuming they were competent. There are a number of pilots who have a 1,000 hours of PIC -- who got it by flying 1 hour at at time VMC in their local area. Are they competent? Throw that same pilot into an hour of cross country in the mountains with lenticular clouds on either side of them and see how competent they are then.

What we do has an inherent risk that can be mitigated to some level by training, experience, good judgment, maintaining equipment and some luck. You can stack all the variables in your favor and still get stung. That is the allure and challenge of aviation.



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You are in denial.
Marauder said:
You're assuming they were competent. There are a number of pilots who have a 1,000 hours of PIC -- who got it by flying 1 hour at at time VMC in their local area. Are they competent? Throw that same pilot into an hour of cross country in the mountains with lenticular clouds on either side of them and see how competent they are then.

What we do has an inherent risk that can be mitigated to some level by training, experience, good judgment, maintaining equipment and some luck. You can stack all the variables in your favor and still get stung. That is the allure and challenge of aviation.



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ClimbnSink said:
You are in denial.
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Denial of what? That you can't understand what we do is risky and people with all of the credentials on their certificates die?


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ClimbnSink said:
My take is the OP wants help boosting his risk denial.
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Its all over NTSB reports! I didn't think I need to specify specific accidents. These type of accidents happen ever monthly.....

There is no denial. Risk is a risk, I do accept that but we all strive to get more hours, more experience, more ratings and at the end of the day you pull up NTSB report and see a pilot that went down with 10,000 hours under the belt. Almost want to say - So much for experience .....

Just sad stuff
 
steingar said:
First, there is nothing at all inevitable about motorcycle crashes. Keep good situational awareness and keep off unmaneuverable bikes and you can ride crash free in to a ripe old age. A quarter century for me. Not that it can't happen, but it isn't necessarily going to.

Murphy can bite anyone at any time. Any of us can make a mistake in judgement. Any of us can wind up at the bottom of a smoking crater. That's why they call it dangerous.
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Been riding for close to half a century without any trouble from other vehicles (knock on wood). The secret? Be loud and fast. Let them know you are there and get out in front. LOL
 
alfadog said:
Been riding for close to half a century without any trouble from other vehicles (knock on wood). The secret? Be loud and fast. Let them know you are there and get out in front. LOL
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You've got time on me, though my solution is quite different. I've been telling riders the same thing for quite a few years. Assume you are invisible to the vast majority of the motorists around you except for a very few who will see and actively try and murder you.

Ride on.
 
alfadog said:
Been riding for close to half a century without any trouble from other vehicles (knock on wood). The secret? Be loud and fast. Let them know you are there and get out in front. LOL
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I am with you 500%! I've managed to keep the shiny side up for last 5 years; even was offered an instructor job at MSF; I am be doing something right... however I could not say the same thing back in '07. More importantly, I went down on a sprinkle of sand coming downhill, to a stop sign in a blind turn. If you ride, no need to explain what happened next....

I mainly ride Ultras and GoldWings. Both great bikes, both will not save your butt in this situation. Sand, oil and wet leafs don't care how loud and fast you are. Almost like loosing a wing, gravity WILL take over. Happy riding!
 
I dropped bikes in my youth from being too fast or too foolish but other vehicles are not my problem (knock). I learned in NYC and live in Miami so it is not lack of traffic, it is knowing where I want to be in relation to that traffic.

edit: If your point is that there is inherent danger in riding (i.e that is 50%, not 500%). Yes, there is. I am totally alert 100% of the time while riding. Much more than I am in the cruise portion of flight or while driving in general.
 
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Marauder said:
What we do has an inherent risk that can be mitigated to some level by training, experience, good judgment, maintaining equipment and some luck. You can stack all the variables in your favor and still get stung. That is the allure and challenge of aviation.
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That's the bottom line, isn't it? I see no denial there.

The "How Safe is Flying, Really?" thread and all the "near miss" and "dumbest thing" threads clearly show chain-of-event buildups to near disasters. One can learn a lot there. Patterns emerge.

We live in a complex, non-linear, dynamic system. Mistakes will be made.

I struggle constantly with feeling "safe" about flying with my husband, and about him flying. When one clearly sees how many things can go horribly wrong despite meticulous preparation and training, it's impossible not to be afraid.

Some say we must always have some fear when we fly, that it keeps us safer. For me, the fear is not counterbalanced by enjoyment. There is no "allure" for me, other than being with my husband. The risk/payoff equation is different for everyone.
 
Becky said:
That's the bottom line, isn't it? I see no denial there.

The "How Safe is Flying, Really?" thread and all the "near miss" and "dumbest thing" threads clearly show chain-of-event buildups to near disasters. One can learn a lot there. Patterns emerge.

We live in a complex, non-linear, dynamic system. Mistakes will be made.

I struggle constantly with feeling "safe" about flying with my husband, and about him flying. When one clearly sees how many things can go horribly wrong despite meticulous preparation and training, it's impossible not to be afraid.

Some say we must always have some fear when we fly, that it keeps us safer. For me, the fear is not counterbalanced by enjoyment. There is no "allure" for me, other than being with my husband. The risk/payoff equation is different for everyone.
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Absolutely. We all vary in how risk-averse we are and what level of risk we accept for what level of reward. For some, the overcoming of risk is part of the reward itself. I have many friends that will not fly in small airplanes. Another pilot friend cancelled his flight on Sat because the wind was over 15 kt. Did not matter to him that it was straight down the runway, he set his personal risk limit at that point and I have to respect him for that.
 
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