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Final Approach
I was playing with the numbers this morning after seeing that the next day I'm scheduled to go (Thursday) is also forecast to be a snow day (okay, just flurries, but the forecast discussion talks about "abundant boundary layer moisture", meaning IFR or at best MVFR ceilings). After that, the next chance for precip also happens to be the next day that the DPE is available, Sunday.
So starting next week, since the DPE does not do checkrides at night, my only chances are weekends. Thanks to the weather, the DPE's schedule is backed up so bad that his availability is about 2 days out of 7, picked essentially at random. Flyable days are occurring at a rate of about 2 out of 7, we'll assume those are at random too (though so far there is a 100% negative correlation with the DPE's availability). That means my chances of being able to go on any Saturday or Sunday are 4/49 or about 1 chance in 12. There are only 7 more weekends between next Monday and the expiration date of my oral. So the probability that I won't get it done is ~ (11/12)^14 = 30%. That's a 70% chance that I will, which is good -- of course, that all assumes that something else doesn't stand in the way, like a mechanical issue with the plane, or work, or one of us coming down with a virus.
Everything considered though, I'd like better odds than 70%. I wonder how the FAA arrived at 60 days for the time limit on the oral. Seems like in some parts of the country (e.g. Alaska), that might be WAY too short.
So starting next week, since the DPE does not do checkrides at night, my only chances are weekends. Thanks to the weather, the DPE's schedule is backed up so bad that his availability is about 2 days out of 7, picked essentially at random. Flyable days are occurring at a rate of about 2 out of 7, we'll assume those are at random too (though so far there is a 100% negative correlation with the DPE's availability). That means my chances of being able to go on any Saturday or Sunday are 4/49 or about 1 chance in 12. There are only 7 more weekends between next Monday and the expiration date of my oral. So the probability that I won't get it done is ~ (11/12)^14 = 30%. That's a 70% chance that I will, which is good -- of course, that all assumes that something else doesn't stand in the way, like a mechanical issue with the plane, or work, or one of us coming down with a virus.
Everything considered though, I'd like better odds than 70%. I wonder how the FAA arrived at 60 days for the time limit on the oral. Seems like in some parts of the country (e.g. Alaska), that might be WAY too short.
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