Go vs. No-Go, did I make the right call?

[Morne]

Recognizing that just because I made a "Go" call and made it in one piece is NOT proof that I was right...

Also recognizing that whatever reasons I had at the time a lot more can be learned in retrospect and the input of others with more experience/knowledge...

I submit myself and my ADM to the hivemind for judgement.

Yesterday (5/21/12) I had to fly my 182 from BJJ to VJI (2 hours en route) and back for some business. While I wanted to come back my wife was very sure to tell me not to push it and that if I ended up staying a night away that was fine (she is a good wife for a pilot). The forecast for the morning flight down at 9am EDT was clear. The forecast for that evening was less enticing, with scattered storms and the ever-dreaded "CB" in the TAFs.

A few pics from the way down:

Why I was using oxygen:

After my business was conducted I started looking at the weather again for a possible return home. Everything I could find showed that there were storms both west and east of my route, but nothing in the way. There was sort of an "alley" for me to go through. Even the storm movement was slow, around 10 knots, and thus the 50-ish mile corridor had plenty of life to it.

Further factoring into the decision was that the conditions were VFR, and by a lot, the whole way. Vis of 10 miles, ceiling over 6000' and nothing else nasty reported.

My strikefinder could earn its pay. Because to be bluntly honest, I don't like the idea of flying anywhere even remotely close to a thunderstorm. Yes, I was a tad nervous, but I saw no reason to "No Go" despite my best attempts at finding one. Heck, even the briefer commented on the "lane" of clear weather along my route from VJI to BJJ. So, aloft I went.

Pics of the trip back:

ETA - My departure time was right around 5:30pm EDT for the 2 hours flying home. If any of the weather gurus want to look up the weather from 5:30-7:30 (2130-2330Z) and analyze the conditions along the route with their cool tools I would be grateful.

 

[Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe]

Looks like it was OK to me.

 

[Sac Arrow]

You can see all that stuff and fly around it. I don't see the dilemma.

 

[rottydaddy]

I think that as long as you had the vis indicated by the photos, and the elbow room indicated by the photos, and some alternates along the route, your decision was very sound.

 

[airguy]

Agreed. I'm looking at the photos in the context of Go/No-Go and wondering why the question was asked, I wouldn't hesitate to go long XC in that.

 

[dell30rb]

Nice pics. Looks like a great day for flying...

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Looks fine. Might have been iffy if you were in the clouds and unable to see and avoid the weather visually, but...

You're right that making it in one piece doesn't necessarily mean the "go" decision was good, but unless you scared the heck out of yourself it probably was.

What happened that's causing you to question it?

 

[steingar]

Stuff was way scattered yesterday. Yeah, something could have gotten in the way, but you had plenty of room to turn around or land and get out of it. No worries says me.

 

[N747JB]

From what you have posted, I think Go was the right call. By the way anytime you make a No-Go decision it's also right. It's better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground.
I have cancelled a few flights, that in hindsight were doable, and I have also made a few flights that in hindsight, I wish I hadn't.

 

[Geico266]

VFR all the way.

 

[Morne]

Agreed. I'm looking at the photos in the context of Go/No-Go and wondering why the question was asked, I wouldn't hesitate to go long XC in that.

I am a low time pilot, 150 hours, and am trying to err on the side of caution. I ask the question because sometimes somebody knows more than me and I can learn from it.

BTW, Indy center was BUSY last night authorizing deviations. Maybe listening to all that radio chatter while I was on flight following psyched me out and made me question my call.

 

[N747JB]

I am a low time pilot, 150 hours, and am trying to err on the side of caution. I ask the question because sometimes somebody knows more than me and I can learn from it.

BTW, Indy center was BUSY last night authorizing deviations. Maybe listening to all that radio chatter while I was on flight following psyched me out and made me question my call.

Don't ever be embarrassed to ask a question, sure you will occasionally get smart a$$ replies, but most pilots like to help newer pilots out ans answer their questions.

 

[Threefingeredjack]

Ya done good pilgrim.

 

[airguy]

BTW, Indy center was BUSY last night authorizing deviations. Maybe listening to all that radio chatter while I was on flight following psyched me out and made me question my call.

Don't let that spook you unneccesarily - the ones requesting deviations are on IFR flight plans and locked into a particular routing, if they have weather between them and their next checkpoint, they have to ask before deviating. As a VFR pilot staring out the windshield with your Mark I eyeballs (to borrow from another active thread) all you would need to do is turn left or right 10 degrees or whatever to be clear.

Consider one good lone thunderstorm in an otherwise clear patch of sky - that happens to sit right in the line of a commonly used high-altitude jet route. Every aircraft on the route will be requesting a deviation to go around and the frequency will sound pretty busy just due to the volume of traffic on the route and the speed with which they transit the airspace - but by itself it doesn't really mean the weather is bad other than that one storm. Now move that storm 20 miles to the side and the frequency is clear. Is the weather any different?

 

[Cruiser]

I would break this out into two parts.
1. the weather decision
2. the pilot decision

the weather decision is based on meteorological data, which is important that you continue to learn.
the pilot decision is based on your ability to suppress the urge to continue when the weather data says otherwise.
It sounds at though you are well equipped to handle making both of these decisions. Just remember final Go/NoGo decision will always be yours no matter what others think.

 

[Flying h4x0r]

Looks like it was a nice flight. How come you climbed all the way to 12.5k?

 

[Morne]

Looks like it was a nice flight. How come you climbed all the way to 12.5k?

Wanted an excuse to try my new oxygen system (SkyOx).

On the return I stayed at 5500' to keep under clouds.

 

[dell30rb]

you could have climbed higher than that! I bet your 182 with just you on board will make 14500 ok

 

[Morne]

you could have climbed higher than that! I bet your 182 with just you on board will make 14500 ok

Baby steps. First time with oxygen I wanted to be at the edge of where I wouldn't need it so that my out was close by.

 

[andybean]

You sound like a level headed individual! I agree with the others in that go was the right decision. But keep the caution hat on. Better to to error on the side of conservative.
Three Greens.
Andy

 

[Clark1961]

Baby steps. First time with oxygen I wanted to be at the edge of where I wouldn't need it so that my out was close by.

Many of the choices you've made sound good. They sound good to me 'cause I like to take small steps in figuring out what I'm comfortable flying in and around.

We all learn the "rules" for flying then we have to learn how to apply the "rules" to our flying...

 

[Alexb2000]

Did you have a pulse oximeter also?

 

[Ghery]

Well, I'll jump in and join the unanimous chorus saying you did fine. The weather information supported a "go" and your pictures show that the weather guessers didn't mislead you. Glad you had a good trip. I wish my employer would let me do the same.

 

[Morne]

Did you have a pulse oximeter also?

Yes, but I couldn't find it! I put the cannula on and started the oxygen flowing prior to engine start. I figured one less thing to mess with during my climb. But I HATE wearing the finger pulse oximeter until I have trimmed for cruise as it gets in the way of manipulating the controls. So I thought to myself, "I'll just leave it in the glove box until I hit cruise altitude." Of course, I did not verify that it was actually in the glove box. As I am climbing I am finishing off my Monster energy drink (lo-carb, because I need the 182's extra horsepower) and stuff the can into the pocket by my left leg. Not until after I cannot locate the oximeter in the glove box do I think to look in that very pocket, but by then the empty can had shoved it so far back that I couldn't find it! Once I was on the ground and shut down I dove deep in there and retrieved the bloody thing, but by then it didn't matter since I had to stay low on the way home.

Oh well, live and learn. I think I'm going to make a custom checklist that adds things like:
-Oxygen cylinder securely strapped in plane?
-Oxygen gauge shows sufficient pressure?
-SkyOx 4-port regulator attached to cylinder?
-Cannula for each occupant onboard?
-Finger pulse oximeter onboard and accessible to pilot?

 

[Alexb2000]

Yes, but I couldn't find it! I put the cannula on and started the oxygen flowing prior to engine start. I figured one less thing to mess with during my climb. But I HATE wearing the finger pulse oximeter until I have trimmed for cruise as it gets in the way of manipulating the controls. So I thought to myself, "I'll just leave it in the glove box until I hit cruise altitude." Of course, I did not verify that it was actually in the glove box. As I am climbing I am finishing off my Monster energy drink (lo-carb, because I need the 182's extra horsepower) and stuff the can into the pocket by my left leg. Not until after I cannot locate the oximeter in the glove box do I think to look in that very pocket, but by then the empty can had shoved it so far back that I couldn't find it! Once I was on the ground and shut down I dove deep in there and retrieved the bloody thing, but by then it didn't matter since I had to stay low on the way home.

Oh well, live and learn. I think I'm going to make a custom checklist that adds things like:
-Oxygen cylinder securely strapped in plane?
-Oxygen gauge shows sufficient pressure?
-SkyOx 4-port regulator attached to cylinder?
-Cannula for each occupant onboard?
-Finger pulse oximeter onboard and accessible to pilot?

Good deal. I don't wear mine all the time I just check every once in awhile mainly to make sure I have enough flow to keep my saturation above 90. When I fly in the upper teens or especially twenties I am much more diligent. I also find them really useful to test passengers to see if they need O2.

For what they cost I am surprised that everyone doesn't fly with one.

 

[gismo]

WRT the decision to undertake the return flight, unless you had to dodge several TRW on your way out of the airport's terminal area initiating the flight didn't compromise safety in any way. More important safety wise is your willingness to change to plan B (land, turn around, etc) before things get dicey. IMO too many pilots agonize over the decision to launch then stubbornly continue to follow the initial plan until continuing further is clearly impossible (which is usually way to late to change plans).

 

[Morne]

WRT the decision to undertake the return flight, unless you had to dodge several TRW on your way out of the airport's terminal area initiating the flight didn't compromise safety in any way. More important safety wise is your willingness to change to plan B (land, turn around, etc) before things get dicey. IMO too many pilots agonize over the decision to launch then stubbornly continue to follow the initial plan until continuing further is clearly impossible (which is usually way to late to change plans).

...and while this trip didn't demonstrate that, because I was flying from an area of iffy weather into progressively better weather, it is something I have dealt with before.

There is certainly a time to punt and say, "Well, we've gotten just as far as we can today." On my big XC last year (OH to CA and back) I did just that coming home. Ended up leaving my plane in MO for a week before I could go back and fly her home.

 

[Ted]

Not seeing a problem. We were flying yesterday as well. We were IFR and did have to ask for a number of deviations, but it all depends on what your line is. About 80% of the time it seems that the Red Sea parts, and I don't even have to deviate 5 degrees. Other times, minor deviations are needed.

You stayed VFR, looks good.

 

[Jaybird180]

In the OP you stated a level at 6,000 but the charts show terrain on your route at 4,600. In the mountanous region, were there any concerns for the up/down drafts associated with mountain flying? I've heard the mantra of staying 2k above terrain when in the mountains.

Also, would there have been any issue with flying through the virga instead of around?

 

[Ted]

In the OP you stated a level at 6,000 but the charts show terrain on your route at 4,600. In the mountanous region, were there any concerns for the up/down drafts associated with mountain flying? I've heard the mantra of staying 2k above terrain when in the mountains.

Not having experience with the "real" mountains (think Colorado and western), I've mostly gotten exposure to the eastern "baby mountains." I have experienced mountain waves, and since I normally fly IFR have my 2k above terrain. I've had one time in a PA-28-180 where I could only maintain altitude at Vy and full power, and in the Aztec I once lost 30 mph IAS to maintain level.

I'd say that 1500 ft clearance is sufficient around the baby mountains of this area in most areas, including days like yesterday.

Also, would there have been any issue with flying through the virga instead of around?

Visibility can very quickly deteriorate to zero when flying in rain, which puts you in effective IMC. If flying VFR, best to avoid.

 

[Ted]

I'd also like to comment on something in the OP: realizing that just because you made a trip and survived doesn't make it a good go/no-go decision is very important. The criteria has to do with more than whether or not you and the plane were reusable. In this case, I'd say it was an appropriate go decision, but I certainly have made go decisions that should have been no-go. Fortunately, the plane and pilot have always been reusable afterwards.

 

[dell30rb]

I've had one time in a PA-28-180 where I could only maintain altitude at Vy and full power


.

One day I climbed to 8500 in the winter, going west across the appalachians, I was at Vy, full power and was losing 500fpm at one point.. quite a sickening feeling. I got all the way to 7500 feet before going back up again. I was 400lb under gross in a PA-28-161, and it was a cold day. The winds aloft were 50kts when I eventually made it up to 12,500 and crossed above the mountain wave. I had a 60kt groundspeed for about an hour.

 

[Ted]

One day I climbed to 8500 in the winter, going west across the appalachians, I was at Vy, full power and was losing 500fpm at one point.. quite a sickening feeling. I got all the way to 7500 feet before going back up again. I was 400lb under gross in a PA-28-161, and it was a cold day. The winds aloft were 50kts when I eventually made it up to 12,500 and crossed above the mountain wave. I had a 60kt groundspeed for about an hour.

There's definitely a big difference in what you're flying, which needs to be considered. The 181 would've likely kept you level (or at least closer to it).

You also point out that there were 50 kt winds aloft - which over the mountains I'd expect to make for some more significant waves. That's pretty uncommon to see at lower altitudes around here, and I don't think I've ever had them that strong when going over the mountains.

 

[dell30rb]

There's definitely a big difference in what you're flying, which needs to be considered. The 181 would've likely kept you level (or at least closer to it).

You also point out that there were 50 kt winds aloft - which over the mountains I'd expect to make for some more significant waves. That's pretty uncommon to see at lower altitudes around here, and I don't think I've ever had them that strong when going over the mountains.

Right, it was the day after a cold winter front had passed. CAVU with some seriously strong and bitter winds. The headwinds were manageable at lower altitudes, though the 3hr trip took about 4.5 with the added fuel stop. The vis was unlimited and I was treated to some pretty spectacular views! Obviously not a factor for the OP's flying here.. just thought i'd share a war story haha

 

[Morne]

In the OP you stated a level at 6,000 but the charts show terrain on your route at 4,600. In the mountanous region, were there any concerns for the up/down drafts associated with mountain flying? I've heard the mantra of staying 2k above terrain when in the mountains.

Also, would there have been any issue with flying through the virga instead of around?

Winds were very calm all day Monday, even aloft. Since I had decided to stay at 5500' I used a pass through the ridge just north and east of VJI to get clear.

On the way south in the morning I crossed the highest point of the ridge, right over the VOR almost, at about 2000' AGL. I got some downdraft on the back side of it, but since I was descending towards VJI anyway it was not problematic.

I have flown down there on windier days and generally detour to the west, where the ground is lower and gentler, to get in and out of the valley. Monday that was not an option when departing, as there were storms closer to the west than I wanted to be.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

you could have climbed higher than that! I bet your 182 with just you on board will make 14500 ok

I bet it'd do much better than that. I've had a 182 about 300 under gross up to 17,500, and it was still doing 500 fpm at 15,300 (and I have photos to prove it! )