Go or No Go?

MtPJimB

MtPJimB

Pre-takeoff checklist
Joined
Sep 29, 2010
Messages
252
Location
Eatonton, GA
Display Name
Display name:
RVFlyboy
I need to make a trip from 32GA (Lake Oconee, GA) to KLRO (Mount Pleasant, SC) today and come back Sunday. I can't come back on Sat or Mon - has to be Sun. Forecast for 32GA for Sun is 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms. I have a Garmin 430W and also ForeFlight with a Stratus 2 for ADS-B weather. I'm instrument rated, but not current/proficient. Driving is 4 hours. Fly or drive?
 
I just looked at the weather for SE texas and the stalled frontal boundary extends all the way to Florida. There is no High pressure to move it down. The daytime heating will interact with it and it will be sucky for then next few days possibly even Sunday and Monday
 
I live in Georgia and know your apprehension with this weather forecast. All summer this has been the forecast and we end up with 3K to 4K broken which is always a very full broken layer. You can usually get the flight in if you are willing to go early or at night.

My rule personally is,,, if in my planning I say I have to be somewhere then the flight is off. Drives my wife crazy. She will say we have to be back on a certain day and I immediately respond "then we are driving" .
 
tngarner said:
My rule personally is,,, if in my planning I say I have to be somewhere then the flight is off. Drives my wife crazy. She will say we have to be back on a certain day and I immediately respond "then we are driving" .
Click to expand...

Pretty much. "Time to spare? Go by air!"
 
MtPJimB said:
I need to make a trip from 32GA (Lake Oconee, GA) to KLRO (Mount Pleasant, SC) today and come back Sunday. I can't come back on Sat or Mon - has to be Sun. Forecast for 32GA for Sun is 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms. I have a Garmin 430W and also ForeFlight with a Stratus 2 for ADS-B weather. I'm instrument rated, but not current/proficient. Driving is 4 hours. Fly or drive?
Click to expand...

80% is as high as the weather guessers go. I would drive if I have to be back on Sunday, and I fly VFR in pretty crappy weather.
 
MtPJimB said:
I need to make a trip from 32GA (Lake Oconee, GA) to KLRO (Mount Pleasant, SC) today and come back Sunday. I can't come back on Sat or Mon - has to be Sun. Forecast for 32GA for Sun is 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms. I have a Garmin 430W and also ForeFlight with a Stratus 2 for ADS-B weather. I'm instrument rated, but not current/proficient. Driving is 4 hours. Fly or drive?
Click to expand...

Sounds like a road trip to me.
 
Sometimes it's helpful to take a look at the forecaster discussions.

http://classic.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=FFC&StateCode=GA&SafeCityName=Oconee

In this case, it's still not clear. They doesn't speak of IFR flight conditions, but convective activity is certainly on the table. I didn't see anything about 80% chance of thunderstorms.

Can you leave anytime on Sunday? Are you willing to rent a car if things aren't flyable by mid-day (assuming cars are available for rental)?
 
When I brought my airplane home, the forecast looked good. When I got my briefing before departure Lockmart told me that I would have no problem. When I got within 60 miles of home I ran into a big line of thunderstorms and had to set down. Things didn't clear until lunchtime the next day.

You can't count on a forecast.

"I have to get there today" is a significant cause of death amongst pilots.
 
MtPJimB said:
I need to make a trip from 32GA (Lake Oconee, GA) to KLRO (Mount Pleasant, SC) today and come back Sunday. I can't come back on Sat or Mon - has to be Sun. Forecast for 32GA for Sun is 80% chance of rain/thunderstorms. I have a Garmin 430W and also ForeFlight with a Stratus 2 for ADS-B weather. I'm instrument rated, but not current/proficient. Driving is 4 hours. Fly or drive?
Click to expand...

Drive. Fancy equipment does not move t-cells aside.:no:
 
I had already decided on driving, but wanted to also have some validation that my decision making was focused on the right things. It pretty much was exactly as many of you have posted.
 
Trying to guess what weather will be like more than 36 hours out is one of the hardest things GA pilots attempt to do well. Commercial airline pilots rarely have to look beyond their next flight, and they have dispatchers helping them to make go/no go decisions.

Don't beat yourself up if it turns out to have been ok to fly. You made a decision based on the information you had at the time.
 
There is an incontrovertible rule of aviation in play here.
Because you decided to drive, the weather will be flyable. If you had decided to fly, the weather would be horrible.

The general rule I've heard is that the chance of making a long trip is 90% if you can go IFR, 70% VFR. The problem is, you never know for sure for a given day. Forecasts are, in my view, only reliable starting about 24 hours beforehand.
Personally, I like to have a couple of days of leeway on both ends of the flight if I'm taking a long trip. And I'm comfortable flying pretty hard IFR.
 
Artimas said:
There is an incontrovertible rule of aviation in play here.
Because you decided to drive, the weather will be flyable. If you had decided to fly, the weather would be horrible.
Click to expand...
Actually, in this case, the rule was broken. The weather at my destination airport for where I would have needed to fly yesterday was solid IMC all day. Weather all along the route home was low ceilings, rain, and occasional thunderstorms. I was definitely glad to be driving, not flying.
 
I'd rather be down here wishing I were up there than up there wishing I were down here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top