"Frankenstorm"

dell30rb

dell30rb

Final Approach
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Ren
In reference to Hurricane Sandy

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
 
Impressive -- both the storm and the creativity of the bureaucrat who wrote the update.

-Rich
 
Well I wouldn't necessarily put a NOAA forecaster in the same category as a government agency rat but okay
 
dell30rb said:
In reference to Hurricane Sandy

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see what transpires.....FWIW, I'm currently underway off the VaCapes and while cautious, Navy METOC seems to feel that NOAA is over-reacting a wee bit.
 
If the models are correct this could very well be a 1000 year storm for NYC. . . .

930mb, 70-80kt sustained for 12-15 hours - a stalled storm right over NY Harbor according to the models. You'd prob see 50 million without power at some point, massive flooding in Brooklyn and on Long Island, the 4/22 runway at JFK under water. This is the horrible scenario many have worried about.

Now - given all that fear mongering - you are talking about a deep deep storm transitioning from warm core to cold core backing northwest in late October . . . its just not very likely. If there is a combination of factors that can cause it - these are they . ..
 
Fearless Tower said:
It will be interesting to see what transpires.....FWIW, I'm currently underway off the VaCapes and while cautious, Navy METOC seems to feel that NOAA is over-reacting a wee bit.
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NOAA is over - reacting because if they under-react and this ends up being the 1000 year storm they'll get savaged - plus - there is not much west of Groton for the Navy to worry about til they get to Oceana.

This could be a big one and if I were in the USN as a pilot or weather weenie I'd probably think it is going to go out to sea as well.

Let us know if you can while underway what the actual weather offshore is . . . will tell us landlubbers if the model huggers are right or wrong -
 
Yeah let me know... I was thinking about fishing in the Chesapeake this Saturday and Sunday but it now looks like I'll be doing storm prep up there instead
 
Threefingeredjack said:
SO..who's up for some "interesting" flying??? :D
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I am suppose to fly from KHEF to KACY for the weekend. Getting to Atlantic City on Friday night shouldn't be a problem, but getting back home on Sunday might be interesting. Will probably end up coming back on Saturday night instead.
 
There should be ALOT of aircraft evacs . . . . hangars will be in danger with 75kt sustained.
 
The Mother of all Nor'Easters is heading for New England. Daughter and Son-in-law are securing all and stocking supplies.
 
comanchepilot said:
If the models are correct this could very well be a 1000 year storm for NYC. . . .

930mb, 70-80kt sustained for 12-15 hours - a stalled storm right over NY Harbor according to the models. You'd prob see 50 million without power at some point, massive flooding in Brooklyn and on Long Island, the 4/22 runway at JFK under water. This is the horrible scenario many have worried about.

Now - given all that fear mongering - you are talking about a deep deep storm transitioning from warm core to cold core backing northwest in late October . . . its just not very likely. If there is a combination of factors that can cause it - these are they . ..
Click to expand...

In other words, any normal day between October and April in the Aleutian Islands :dunno: Of course the vast population impacted is rough. When I was stationed in Alaska we used to chuckle over the breathless coverage of 90kt winds on the East Coast. A couple tours up there gives a guy more "hurricane" hours than most "Hurricane Hunters".
 
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Threefingeredjack said:
SO..who's up for some "interesting" flying??? :D
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Working on the turbine Caribou.

:D

The more the media can hype this storm the more soap they sell, and then they'll have to hire more people at NOAA to keep us "safe" from the danger. :rolleyes:
 
The biggest issue will be the rainfall and surge flooding. A cat 1 storm just can't do that much wind damage. The big issue will be if it scoots on through, or moves slowly and dumps rain
 
dell30rb said:
The biggest issue will be the rainfall and surge flooding. A cat 1 storm just can't do that much wind damage. The big issue will be if it scoots on through, or moves slowly and dumps rain
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Well they are even talking snow as there will be cold air pumped in from the north. Don't know where they are predicting snow or how much, as they probably don't know enough yet. If we do get snow, it will be heavy, and wet, and with a lot of leaves still on the trees here we can expect a lot of power lines down, and a lot of outages. That's my worst fear.
 
Threefingeredjack said:
In other words, any normal day between October and April in the Aleutian Islands :dunno: Of course the vast population impacted is rough. When I was stationed in Alaska we used to chuckle over the breathless coverage of 90kt winds on the East Coast. A couple tours up there gives a guy more "hurricane" hours than most "Hurricane Hunters".
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Yeah, but up there you only rocks to get pushed around . . . . down in the cities you have power lines and 800' buildings and crap getting blown around.

I live literally in the shadow of the San Gabriel mountains - and every year we have these Santa Ana winds blowing hard out of the norheast and we generally see almost nothing because we are literally in the lee of 8 and 10k peaks - and their associated ranges. Draw a 45 degree line from the peaks to the valley basin and you reach a point about 1.5 south of my house - go down there and its windy as heck, here its a light breeze if that.
 
comanchepilot said:
Yeah, but up there you only rocks to get pushed around . . . . down in the cities you have power lines and 800' buildings and crap getting blown around.

I live literally in the shadow of the San Gabriel mountains - and every year we have these Santa Ana winds blowing hard out of the norheast and we generally see almost nothing because we are literally in the lee of 8 and 10k peaks - and their associated ranges. Draw a 45 degree line from the peaks to the valley basin and you reach a point about 1.5 south of my house - go down there and its windy as heck, here its a light breeze if that.
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Yeah that much energy pushing into a population center with the resultant downed powerlines and flooding will be nasty. And getting put back together in time for the election might be an issue.
 
Well guess who isn't pulling into home port today.......this guy.

I HATE hurricanes!
 
Fearless Tower said:
Well guess who isn't pulling into home port today.......this guy.

I HATE hurricanes!
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Hey dude have fun. Tighten everything up, run 45degrees into the sea and sing 99 bottles of beer. Isn't that standard navy procedure for hurricanes?

I'll be up there too at our place on the Chesapeake right below the va/md border. Looks like we are in for a ride. At least you don't have to worry about trees falling on you or your sailboat
 
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Looks like the NASCAR races in Martinsville Va will get washed out too.:sad:.. I need V-8 therapy and it's snowin here and rainin there.... I guess I can just lite the beast off while it's in the hangar to hear the music and smell the 100LL.:):)
 
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I went out earlier in search of a generator (unsuccessfully -- I think every generator within a 50-mile radius has already been sold), but I did pick up a few other things.

Interestingly (but maybe not surprisingly), some of the most crowded parking lots I passed belonged to liquor stores. I'm okay in that department, having recently stocked up on some good, cheap red.

I basically wanted the generator only so I could keep working if the power goes out for an extended time. As for the rest, I can get by without electricity for quite a while if need be. I have about 40 years worth of wilderness camping and several survival schools under my belt, so cooking over a camp stove and using the ravine latrine would be more of a minor inconvenience than anything else.

I may try to get an inverter, though, in which case I can park the car outside my office and run an extension cord through the window to my UPS. Run the car long enough to charge the UPS and the laptop battery, then run off the laptop battery with the UPS powering only the modem and router. Doing it that way, I probably can go between 8 and 10 hours between re-charging the UPS if I disconnect everything else. I know I've gotten better than six hours out of it without shedding load at all in the past.

But that may be silly, anyway. If the power goes out, chances are that the Internet will be out, as well. So I dunno. We'll see. I'm a SUNY alum, so I can always run up to the state college and use their 'Net if need be.

-Rich
 
RJM62 said:
Interestingly (but maybe not surprisingly), some of the most crowded parking lots I passed belonged to liquor stores. I'm okay in that department, having recently stocked up on some good, cheap red.
Click to expand...

Sounds like that plus some bean dip and Fritos, and we gots ourselves a PARTY! ;)
 
dell30rb said:
Hey dude have fun. Tighten everything up, run 45degrees into the sea and sing 99 bottles of beer. Isn't that standard navy procedure for hurricanes?
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This is not your average hurricane.

The problem is......it is going to be worse out here than in Norfolk. There is no way for us to outrun the storm surge of this thing and it is going to eventually merge with another weather system to the northeast. The few of us out to sea right now (they wisely cancelled the sortie plans for the rest of the fleet) are going to get the crap beat out of us.

I'll keep ya'll posted.....assuming we can maintain connectivity!
 
It looks like it has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. Stay safe Fearless!
 
Back up to hurricane but the high altitude low backing up and the reverse oritened "U" jet centered over EVV for Tuesday noon- if this turns out, it'll be a baddy.
 

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dell30rb said:
The biggest issue will be the rainfall and surge flooding. A cat 1 storm just can't do that much wind damage. The big issue will be if it scoots on through, or moves slowly and dumps rain
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Except it's not *just* a hurricane. It'll be running up against a cold front that will make the winds worse.

The big question is where and when it'll come ashore. The models more than 48 hours out are still not in full agreement.
 
N801BH said:
Looks like the NASCAR races in Martinsville Va will get washed out too.:sad:.. I need V-8 therapy and it's snowin here and rainin there.... I guess I can just lite the beast off while it's in the hangar to hear the music and smell the 100LL.:):)
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You run 100LL? Did you square face end mill the bottoms of the valve guides to roll up the lead?
 
Henning said:
You run 100LL? Did you square face end mill the bottoms of the valve guides to roll up the lead?
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I run 75% auto fuel and the other 25% is 100LL for storage and octane purposes... I don't need to profile the ends of the exhaust guides as I run 1650f+ egts and that cleanses that area... The intake guides are not an issues because I am watercooled and lead coking there does not happen... You aircooled guys with 375 -400+ CHTs will have issues though..:yes:
 
When we have a power outage we retreat to the motor home, fire up the gen-set and watch TV off the sat dish.

If it is a prolonged period we back feed the house thru the gen-tran panel.
 
wsuffa said:
The big question is where and when it'll come ashore. The models more than 48 hours out are still not in full agreement.
Click to expand...
True....latest word this morning was that landfall would be Jersey, maybe a little bit of Del.
 
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