Salty, hand flying in instrument conditions is a perishable skill, it deteriorates with time. Being good under a hood years ago with an instructor at your side does not mean you won't death spiral in while in actual now alone. It is a bad to even think of it as a back up plan to get out of the clouds. There are too many dead pilots who have not survived VFR into IMC.
Your post I responded to, specifically the sentence " I think that sufficiently breaks the "you're going to die in 3 minutes" fallacy." is a dangerous thought to have in your head as a VFR pilot, time and time again it's been proven wrong for pilots who have paid the ultimate price. But enough of that.
As to your original post, in your last sentence, you contradict yourself a little, you say, to paraphrase, a small to substantial delay is no problem, then say but if there is a chance of a delay you would rather not do it.
I think that chances are pretty good you would get up there and back without an issue if the weather cooperates, which you should be able to figure out as you get close to the date you want to go. I say if the weather looks good AND you can tolerate a delay if things don't go as planned, do it . If you need to be on a tight schedule and the weather is questionable for your timeframe, then don't do it. Avoid ice and freezing at all costs. Avoid VFR into IMC at all costs. It's as simple as that.
I'll also say this, get your IFR ticket. I'm in the process now and I'll tell you, I fully understand how and why people start and stop. It has been a humbling experience for me, but it has been great too. Things are clicking now and it is a great way to fly. It takes the VMC into IMC issue out of the picture (with limitations, by being proficient and on an IFR plan) and makes trips like yours more doable and less stressful. Flying into the clouds is a unique experience, it's tough to describe relying on your ability to read the instruments to keep the airplane under control, but it's pretty cool and well worth the effort.
