5 dead in Bakersfield crash of PA32

MAKG1 said:
He was NOT a CAP pilot.
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Interesting.... Other reports say he was...


According to his LinkedIn profile, Jason Price was an engineer at Genesis Solutions in Gilroy. On her Facebook page -- where there was a full-color photograph of the five family members -- Olga Price indicated she once attended the Blackford High School in San Jose. Jason led teams and served as a machinery technician in the U.S. Coast Guard in the late 1990s as a machinery technician and also offered disaster and humanitarian relief as a pilot with the Civil Air Patrol.
 
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hindsight2020 said:
What does that mean? BRS or go home?
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There's a good chance if they had one they would all still be alive.

+1 for BRS if you're going to load your entire legacy into a single engine plane.

We are all risk takers being pilots. We eat risk for breakfast. But we should not visit that upon the innocent. :nonod:
 
N801BH said:
Interesting.... Other reports say he was...


According to his LinkedIn profile, Jason Price was an engineer at Genesis Solutions in Gilroy. On her Facebook page -- where there was a full-color photograph of the five family members -- Olga Price indicated she once attended the Blackford High School in San Jose. Jason led teams and served as a machinery technician in the U.S. Coast Guard in the late 1990s as a machinery technician and also offered disaster and humanitarian relief as a pilot with the Civil Air Patrol.
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With no aircrew qualifications, that's gonna be a nice trick. I suspect he was a new member.

CAP members have the ability to look up other members' qualifications. Interestingly, that includes his verified statements about FAA ratings. He's ATP MEL, CFI SEL and MEL, and CFII, with current first class medical and flight review.

This is why I insist we don't know what happened. Rumor and conjecture are VERY OFTEN wrong, and do a disservice to all of us.
 
MAKG1 said:
With no aircrew qualifications, that's gonna be a nice trick. I suspect he was a new member.

CAP members have the ability to look up other members' qualifications. Interestingly, that includes his verified statements about FAA ratings. He's ATP MEL, CFI SEL and MEL, and CFII, with current first class medical and flight review.

This is why I insist we don't know what happened. Rumor and conjecture are VERY OFTEN wrong, and do a disservice to all of us.
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OK, how can someone be CFII and not show an instrument rating on the FAA database? Got zero to hero CFII in 10 days?

Edit: be sure you are looking up the right person, this one has a 'T' middle name (while your ratings match the 'D' guy).
 
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RotorDude said:
OK, how can someone be CFII and not show an instrument rating on the FAA database? Got zero to hero CFII in 10 days?

Edit: be sure you are looking up the right person, this one has a 'T' middle name.
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Easy. Looking it up in the airman database gets 10 hits. One of them has all the same qualifications claimed for CAP. Nine of them don't.

Now, let's stop ****ing on a dead guy's grave. Don't be stupid and treat conjecture as more than it is.

A CAP database entry means someone else has seen his certificate. It is not on the honor system. On the other hand, any idiot can read the wrong FAA database entry and draw stupid conclusions from that.
 
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RotorDude said:
OK, how can someone be CFII and not show an instrument rating on the FAA database? Got zero to hero CFII in 10 days?

Edit: be sure you are looking up the right person, this one has a 'T' middle name (while your ratings match the 'D' guy).
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If the person was an ATP the IR is assumed so it wouldn't show up on the FAA airman database as him "having" an IR.
 
MAKG1 said:
Easy. Looking it up in the airman database gets 10 hits. One of them has all the same qualifications claimed for CAP. Nine of them don't.

Now, let's stop ****ing on a dead guy's grave. Don't be stupid and treat conjecture as more than it is.

A CAP database entry means someone else has seen his certificate. It is not on the honor system.
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Sorry, not following.
The dead guy has a T middle name, class 3 medical and PPL only, not showing anything else.
The one you mention is clearly the D middle name guy, with ATP, CFII, first class medical, etc. Not sure how getting the details correct is disrespectful in any way.
 
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RotorDude said:
Sorry, not following.
The dead guy has a T middle name, class 3 medical and PPL only, not showing anything else.
The one you mention is clearly the D middle name guy, with ATP, CFII, first class medical, etc. Not sure how getting the details correct is disrespectful in any way.
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It's disrespectful to read the database incorrectly and draw "conclusions" that the accident was due to an inexperienced pilot getting in way over his head.

Note I wouldn't say such things if the statements had any basis in fact; then we might learn something. But they are just wrong and serve no purpose.

Someone assumed that they knew how to read a database. They were wrong.
 
MAKG1 said:
It's disrespectful to read the database incorrectly and draw "conclusions" that the accident was due to an inexperienced pilot getting in way over his head.

Note I wouldn't say such things if the statements had any basis in fact; then we might learn something. But they are just wrong and serve no purpose.

Someone assumed that they knew how to read a database. They were wrong.
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Sorry, still not following. Who assumed what?
The FAA database is very clear. The deceased pilot (T middle name) was a PPL with a third class medical, no other ratings shown. The one you mention with ATP, CFII and first class medical is not the deceased and is very likely the D middle name. It is slightly possible that the deceased got an instrument rating recently which is not yet in the FAA database, and I don't think anybody has discounted that possibility. Odds are against it, but it's there. But in any case, it's not the one you mention with all those ratings.
 
RotorDude said:
Sorry, still not following. Who assumed what?
The FAA database is very clear. The deceased pilot (T middle name) was a PPL with a third class medical, no other ratings shown. The one you mention with ATP, CFII and first class medical is not the deceased and is very likely the D middle name. It is slightly possible that the deceased got an instrument rating recently which is not yet in the FAA database, and I don't think anybody has discounted that possibility. Odds are against it, but it's there. But in any case, it's not the one you mention with all those ratings.
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You're correct. It turns out there were exactly two Jason Prices nationwide in CAP, and both were in California and had the same rank. CAP was very prompt about removing the deceased' records, so there is only one hit. But his CAPID doesn't match, so he's a different guy.

The statement about his lack of emergency services qualification came from an earlier query that included his son, a cadet airman.

The middle name has not been published to my knowledge.

So, I do owe an apology. Such speculation is only disrespectful if it's wrong, and that has not been determined yet. There is still a LOT that is unknown and we have no idea what role if any his inexperience played. Remember, we do not know (yet) he was in IMC, only that it was a factor ahead.
 
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MAKG1 said:
You're correct. It turns out there were exactly two Jason Prices nationwide in CAP, and both were in California and had the same rank. CAP was very prompt about removing the deceased' records, so there is only one hit. But his CAPID doesn't match, so he's a different guy.

The statement about his lack of emergency services qualification came from an earlier query that included his son, a cadet airman.

The middle name has not been published to my knowledge.

So, I do owe an apology. Such speculation is only disrespectful if it's wrong, and that has not been determined yet. There is still a LOT that is unknown and we have no idea what role if any his inexperience played. Remember, we do not know (yet) he was in IMC, only that it was a factor ahead.
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I am confused.....

What is the hurry in removing a deceased pilots records?:dunno::confused:
 
N801BH said:
I am confused.....

What is the hurry in removing a deceased pilots records?:dunno::confused:
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I didn't expect it to be that prompt either, but operations qualifications are used for assembling emergency teams. I guess it might be upsetting to call a deceased's family in the middle of the night to look for a missing aircraft.
 
MAKG1 said:
You're correct. It turns out there were exactly two Jason Prices nationwide in CAP, and both were in California and had the same rank. CAP was very prompt about removing the deceased' records, so there is only one hit. But his CAPID doesn't match, so he's a different guy.

The statement about his lack of emergency services qualification came from an earlier query that included his son, a cadet airman.

The middle name has not been published to my knowledge.

So, I do owe an apology. Such speculation is only disrespectful if it's wrong, and that has not been determined yet. There is still a LOT that is unknown and we have no idea what role if any his inexperience played. Remember, we do not know (yet) he was in IMC, only that it was a factor ahead.
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I don't think that it's speculation when we examine the facts. IMC, lack of an IFR rating, and a rapid decent from 17,500 shortly after accepting an IFR clearance along with a mayday call. There's not a lot of mysteries left with this one. Pretty classic VFR into IMC. I think we can stop discussing it at this point and just let it serve as a reminder to others what not to do.

http://www.aopa.org/AOPA-Live?watch={CCA30EA1-A94D-4E45-ABCD-3AD4074403E0}
 
Pbtx0 said:
I don't think that it's speculation when we examine the facts. IMC, lack of an IFR rating, and a rapid decent from 17,500 shortly after accepting an IFR clearance along with a mayday call. There's not a lot of mysteries left with this one. Pretty classic VFR into IMC. I think we can stop discussing it at this point and just let it serve as a reminder to others what not to do.

http://www.aopa.org/AOPA-Live?watch={CCA30EA1-A94D-4E45-ABCD-3AD4074403E0}
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That is one possible solution, but there are others, such as a mechanical problem with the aircraft or a medical problem. Those can be at least partially investigated.

Juxtaposition is not causation. You need something to establish causality before you can say we know what happened. It's quite possible the NTSB itself won't have the certainty you do.

We do not know that the pilot was in IMC at the time. We know that it was ahead. From what I know of the terrain and weather around there, he might have been in IMC, but it's much more likely it was east and south of him. He crashed in the valley (actually, rather close to its centerline), not in the foothills.
 
MAKG1 said:
That is one possible solution, but there are others, such as a mechanical problem with the aircraft or a medical problem. Those can be at least partially investigated.

Juxtaposition is not causation. You need something to establish causality before you can say we know what happened. It's quite possible the NTSB itself won't have the certainty you do.

We do not know that the pilot was in IMC at the time. We know that it was ahead. From what I know of the terrain and weather around there, he might have been in IMC, but it's much more likely it was east and south of him. He crashed in the valley (actually, rather close to its centerline), not in the foothills.
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Sure, we may never know. We can suspect some unusual things but lets apply Occam's Razor here.

We know that he was actively searching for clear air and had turned northbound in attempt to maintain VMC around the time he was being issued his clearance.

The FAA did a study in 1993 that placed student pilots in a simulator in IMC. All entered a spiral or oscillations within 20 to 240 second with 178 seconds being the average.

You know how many second elapsed from the completion of his clearance read back to his mayday call? 133 seconds.

Maybe he had a heart attack 133 seconds after he accepted his clearance.
Maybe he had a sudden failure of his control surfaces 133 seconds after he accepted his clearance.
Maybe he had spatial disorientation 133 seconds after he accept his clearance.

I know which one fits the picture perfectly and I doubt the NTSB is going to find much in the smoking hole in Bakersfield.
 
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Pbtx0 said:
Sure, we may never know. We can suspect some unusual things but lets apply Occam's Razor here.

We know that he was actively searching for clear air and had turned northbound in attempt to maintain VMC around the time he was being issued his clearance.

The FAA did a study in 1993 that placed student pilots in a simulator in IMC. All entered a spiral or oscillations within 20 to 240 second with 178 seconds being the average.

You know how many second elapsed from the completion of his clearance read back to his mayday call? 133 seconds.

Maybe he had a heart attack 133 seconds after he accepted his clearance.
Maybe he had a sudden failure of his control surfaces 133 seconds after he accepted his clearance.
Maybe he had spatial disorientation 133 seconds after he accept his clearance.

I know which one fits the picture perfectly and I doubt the NTSB is going to find much in the smoking hole in Bakersfield.
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My money is on this horse....:redface:
 
Pbtx0 said:
The FAA did a study in 1993 that placed student pilots in a simulator in IMC. All entered a spiral or oscillations within 20 to 240 second with 178 seconds being the average.
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The 178 second figure previously appeared in this study, which was published in 1954. It was conducted in an airplane, not a simulator, and there's about a forty year discrepancy in the dates, but the quoted results sound suspiciously similar. (See Table II and accompanying text on page 16.)

The 1954 study was funded by the AOPA Foundation and conducted by the University of Illinois. The people conducting the study were intentionally setting up conditions in which all of the subjects would enter an unsurvivable situation, so that they could measure the effectiveness of an emergency escape training syllabus. This was well before the FAA instituted the requirement for private pilot applicants to receive hood training. Consequently, all of the test subjects had zero instrument time. In addition, it was done partial panel, with the artificial horizon, directional gyro, and rate-of-climb indicator covered. For these reasons, the 178 second figure has little or no predictive value for most VFR-into-IMC incidents.
 
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With all those covered, I don't think you could keep it right-side up no matter how much training!
 
dans2992 said:
With all those covered, I don't think you could keep it right-side up no matter how much training!
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Their experimental training syllabus actually worked pretty well.
 
Oh, sorry, I thought I saw that the TC was covered too.
 
acrophile said:
I agree it's possible, given what little we know so far. But what makes it likely? Is there information to show that most pilots in his part of the country get little or no IMC experience during their instrument training? And even if so, it does not follow that most recently-rated pilots making a flight such as that, with their family aboard, have little or no IMC experience.

Many pilots reach their peak proficiency at the time of their checkride.
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The reason I say it's likely a new IFR rated pilot would have very little IMC experienced is based on the fact that the majority of IFR training is done in VFR conditions using a view limiting device, which is NOT the same thing. How much IMC you get depends on a lot of factors, but from reading a lot of threads on here and other boards as well as talking with a lot of instrument rated pilots and also getting my own IR the overwhelming majority seem to agree that it's quite unusual to have more than an hour or 2 of actual IMC during training.

As for ****ting on someones grave I don't think that any discussion about these topics is offensive. Even if it turns out that the person was identified incorrectly having a discussion about proficiency and decision making is not a bad thing and isn't meant to tear him down but to educate those who are still here. This is all basically a hypothetical discussion until the NTSB report comes out. Having a discussion about level of experience and how that might play into this type of crash is a positive thing IMHO. If you're taking offense to it, well that's just too bad, and maybe you're just a bit too sensitive.
 
The NTSB preliminary report is in.
Instrument meteorological conditions prevailed, and an instrument flight rules (IFR) flight plan had been filed. [...]

The pilot held a private pilot certificate with ratings for airplane single-engine land issued in July 2012. He did not hold an instrument rating. [...]

He documented 3.1 hours of simulated instrument time as part of his training for the private certificate in 2012, along with 0.8 hours of flight experience in actual instrument conditions during two IFR training flights in February 2014; these two flights were his only documented actual IFR experience. [...]

The controller asked multiple aircraft in the vicinity if they could see or contact N36402, however, they responded negative, with one pilot reporting that the area was enveloped in clouds.

The airplane had fragmented in flight, with the majority of the components coming to rest in an almond orchard, directly below the last radar target, about 9 miles southwest of Bakersfield.
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http://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief.aspx?ev_id=20151220X04641&key=1
 
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Thanks for posting acrophile. The entire prelim is interesting reading in terms of his discussions with ATC along the way. I wonder if he ever thought "perhaps right now is not a good time to fly to Vegas..."
 
Sam D said:
Thanks for posting acrophile. The entire prelim is interesting reading in terms of his discussions with ATC along the way. I wonder if he ever thought "perhaps right now is not a good time to fly to Vegas..."
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Clearly not. We reviewed the archival weather from that day. He crossed a cold front and very likely mountain wave. From what was available prior to the flight, particularly the satellite photos, there wasn't a safe way to get to Vegas in a light aircraft that afternoon.

There was some speculation the high speed was due to using an autopilot in alt hold during a strong updraft.
 
Palmpilot said:
The 178 second figure previously appeared in this study, which was published in 1954. It was conducted in an airplane, not a simulator, and there's about a forty year discrepancy in the dates, but the quoted results sound suspiciously similar. (See Table 11 and accompanying text on page 16.)

The 1954 study was funded by the AOPA Foundation and conducted by the University of Illinois. The people conducting the study were intentionally setting up conditions in which all of the subjects would enter an unsurvivable situation, so that they could measure the effectiveness of an emergency escape training syllabus. This was well before the FAA instituted the requirement for private pilot applicants to receive hood training. Consequently, all of the test subjects had zero instrument time. In addition, it was done partial panel, with the artificial horizon, directional gyro, and rate-of-climb indicator covered. For these reasons, the 178 second figure has little or no predictive value for most VFR-into-IMC incidents.
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Boy, you just bust my bubble good. I was thinking of that study when I entered legal VFR conditions that might as well have been IFR (mist and water with better than 5 miles of visibility and a ceiling higher than five thousand feet). I managed to keep the shiny side up for a good ten minutes until I recovered the horizon, and thought I was some sort of superman for not auguring in after 30 seconds. Silly me.
 
Without an instrument rating, yet "an instrument flight plan had been filed." Then accepted an IFR clearance and went IMC. If this is not a death wish, not sure what is. :mad2:
 
RotorDude said:
Without an instrument rating, yet "an instrument flight plan had been filed." Then accepted an IFR clearance and went IMC. If this is not a death wish, not sure what is.
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The most charitable interpretation is that he filed only as an emergency precaution, and accepted a clearance only when he found himself boxed in by clouds.

But that wouldn't explain why he failed to mention his predicament to ATC, so they could've helped him return to VMC rather than just continuing to his destination.

So it does appear that he decided to fly in IMC rather than abort the flight.
 
"It's got an autopilot. All I have to do is keep it programmed"


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
That would be a charitable interpretation indeed. Filing IFR when you have virtually no experience or training isn't an emergency precaution if you attempt to continue to your destination. It's a very very poor choice of action. I guess now we can all stop arguing about which pilot it was, and how much experience they had though.
 
Very sad news indeed. It sounds like the pilot either was not instrument rated or proficient and current. Icing and disorientation would lead to a crash.
 
:( Really makes one evaluate the situations we place our families in.
 
Blueangel said:
It sounds like the pilot either was not instrument rated or proficient and current.
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The NTSB report we've been discussing here has definitively resolved that question.
 
Blueangel said:
Very sad news indeed. It sounds like the pilot either was not instrument rated or proficient and current. Icing and disorientation would lead to a crash.
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There was one third hand report that said he was instrument rated. The preliminary report indicates he had only minimal instrument training beyond primary training. I suppose he could have done intensive IFR training in the two weeks between his logbook and the accident, but that doesn't seem very likely.

Note there is at least one obvious error in the report. The pilot apparently avoided clouds 40 minutes before departing.

A reminder: be respectful. This may have been totally preventable, but none of the victims deserved that.
 
MAKG1 said:
Note there is at least one obvious error in the report. The pilot apparently avoided clouds 40 minutes before departing.
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Sorry, I don't see what you're referring to here. Departure was 1435 PST. Is there some reference to an earlier time than that?
 
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