Down for the count

brien23

brien23

Pattern Altitude
Joined
May 31, 2005
Messages
1,624
Location
Oak Harbor
Display Name
Brien
Home Airfield
76S
Just when things were looking up aircraft prices, training, and sales. Stock market all week down today -500 bad news abounds, are the good times over. For those holding out for top dollar on their planes did they miss the only chance they had for a long time to come. I just sold my PA-32 300 not quite what I wanted but now I am glad I took what I got.
 
brien23 said:
Just when things were looking up aircraft prices, training, and sales. Stock market all week down today -500 bad news abounds, are the good times over. For those holding out for top dollar on their planes did they miss the only chance they had for a long time to come. I just sold my PA-32 300 not quite what I wanted but now I am glad I took what I got.
Click to expand...

What good times? The wage economy has always been lackluster since 2001 for the median.

Frankly, I don't see a connection. Transportation conveyances are always a function of access to consumer credit. Americans as a collective are generally cash poor by default. No credit, their lives freeze. Credit, they consume with abandon. We mimic the behavior of oil workers really. Idiotic, but that's how we are. Stock market doesn't do much to that velocity of money amongst the great unwashed.
 
Well... It is back to Oct 2014 levels. OMG!! I think the only people hurt here are the ones who assumed the FED was going to levitate forever and margined themselves up to buy the dips.


Call me when it breaks the pre-2008 peak around 14k. Then things start to get interesting.
 
Good times?

I have long-established business clients who are falling months behind in their payments for the same reason: They just don't have the money. We're talking payments of as little as $297.00 in some cases. Two-thirds of my clients are past-due this month, in fact. I had to build a grace period into my billing software to give them some wiggle room before they got robotically suspended.

The last "good times" I remember were in the late 1990s to the early 2000s. Since then, the percentage of my clients who can't pay their bills on time has grown from almost none back then, to about one-third in a good month to two-thirds in a bad month nowadays. Other clients have needed annual bills split to quarterlies, or quarterlies split to monthlies, because they couldn't come up with the cash.

I don't remember the last month when everyone paid on time. I think it was probably some time around 2004. This month I have more AR on the street than I've collected.

Please let me know when the "good times" arrive.

Rich
 
A correction that has been coming for a long time. Not sure you can connect it to the price of used airplanes.
 
Greece has Found that Socialism doesn't work when you Run out of Other Peoples Money.
 
It would not be fun to watch the Dow slip back to 6,500 or so - it's happened from the 14,000 level before.

But if one is patient and just keeps investing, the market has always rebounded eventually. And dollar cost averaging can make purchases made on the way down and back up look pretty good.

Long term, it seems to work better than trying to time markets.
 
Until there's suddenly no longer a massive incentive to lower personal taxation via retirement investment vehicles, handed to us by our government, mega cash will continue to flow into the stock market. Most long term investors have their payments into the market on autopilot.
 
FastEddieB said:
It would not be fun to watch the Dow slip back to 6,500 or so - it's happened from the 14,000 level before.

But if one is patient and just keeps investing, the market has always rebounded eventually. And dollar cost averaging can make purchases made on the way down and back up look pretty good.

Long term, it seems to work better than trying to time markets.
Click to expand...

Yeah. The problem is if "long term" coincides with your expected retirement date (see 1906-1924, 1937-1950, 1966-1982).

1966-1982... 16 years, not counting inflation just to get back to even.
 

Attachments

  • djia.gif
    djia.gif
    141 KB · Views: 46
denverpilot said:
Until there's suddenly no longer a massive incentive to lower personal taxation via retirement investment vehicles, handed to us by our government, mega cash will continue to flow into the stock market. Most long term investors have their payments into the market on autopilot.
Click to expand...

Like when all the millions of boomers go from paying in to collecting? Isn't that about..... Now?
 
hindsight2020 said:
What good times?
Click to expand...

RJM62 said:
Good times?
Click to expand...

Texas is booming. We are having our best year ever, and not by just a little. Like, double digit percentages better than last year -- and last year rocked.

Apparently, much to my surprise, despite everything The One has done, our economy is robust enough to recover.

Oh, and Texas is a great place to do business. :)
 
Are your customers usually from within Texas or out of state? I would have figured things would be a bit subdued due to oil prices and whatnot in TX.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
dans2992 said:
Are your customers usually from within Texas or out of state? I would have figured things would be a bit subdued due to oil prices and whatnot in TX.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Almost 100% Texas. If you look at a map of Texas, Port Aransas is about as far away from any state border as possible. It takes forever to drive here from out of state.

In Winter, we get a huge number of "Winter Texans" from the snowbelt, but they come for several months at a time and don't pay diddly squat. Just enough for us to keep the lights on.

I was worried about the oil prices putting a hitch in our giddy-up, but it hasn't happened. We have been absolutely blown away by the business this summer.
 
James_Dean said:
Like when all the millions of boomers go from paying in to collecting? Isn't that about..... Now?
Click to expand...


I used to think so. But...

Devaluation of the currency and longer life expectancy means the Boomers are mostly still "all in" and it'll take a couple of decades for them to scale out. It's not an overnight thing and their offspring are also now contributing with a better economy.
 
FastEddieB said:
It would not be fun to watch the Dow slip back to 6,500 or so - it's happened from the 14,000 level before.

But if one is patient and just keeps investing, the market has always rebounded eventually. And dollar cost averaging can make purchases made on the way down and back up look pretty good.

Long term, it seems to work better than trying to time markets.
Click to expand...

When the currency and the market collapse due to the FED's printing and ZIRP there will be no rebound.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Texas is booming. We are having our best year ever, and not by just a little. Like, double digit percentages better than last year -- and last year rocked.

Apparently, much to my surprise, despite everything The One has done, our economy is robust enough to recover.

Oh, and Texas is a great place to do business. :)
Click to expand...

My clients in Texas do tend be pretty good payers. As a group, they're probably the best. They usually pay in 1 to 5 days after receiving the bill. I've only been stiffed on a bill once by a Texan.

Californians are the worst, bar none. I've never gotten an on-time payment from a company in California. Never, not once, not ever. I don't know why.

Rich
 
CharlieTango said:
When the currency and the market collapse due to the FED's printing and ZIRP there will be no rebound.
Click to expand...


Every crash has a rebound. Even the Great Depression did. It's a matter of if you can fiscally survive the timeframe it takes, not whether it'll bounce back.
 
Meh, ... its all much ado about nothing. If and when financial armageddon does occur, non of us will give 2 farts about the market or the value of our 401k. Because, we'll have more important things to think about; like clean water and edible food.

Until then, I'm still up for the year (although a lot less so since Friday).
 
CharlieTango said:
When the currency and the market collapse due to the FED's printing and ZIRP there will be no rebound.
Click to expand...

Been hearing "the sky is falling" since at least the mid-70's.

Maybe it really is this time. Who knows?

But anyone who's been out of the market through that time span has missed some pretty significant gains.

But no one's eggs should be entirely in any one basket regardless.
 
FastEddieB said:
Been hearing "the sky is falling" since at least the mid-70's.

Maybe it really is this time. Who knows?

But anyone who's been out of the market through that time span has missed some pretty significant gains.

But no one's eggs should be entirely in any one basket regardless.
Click to expand...

You missed my point, the QEforever and ZIRP can't go on forever and won't. Can they print us past the point of no return? Have they?

I didn't say the sky is falling today, remains to be seen at this point.
 
Bottom line - we are going to see a depression. The Fed can't even meet its inflation rate of 2 percent...

Great day today. Markets opened up limit-down and I closed all my shorts. First time I've closed out 11 positions at an open... first time for everything.

Now what a perfect day in Florida to go fly!!
 
Zeldman said:
Probably more due to the fact that China is manufacturing Buicks now.
Click to expand...

That's gotta be it! ;)

As for the airplane market, down here in the low end of the plane buying public, I'm wondering if it will have an affect. These are pretty much discretionary purchases, and I would think that some folks getting out of the market would have ready cash looking for a home. Hard to say that things could get much worse.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top