Dodging weather? Consider the lag.

Good video. I've watched a few of those on youtube and really enjoy them. Great looks at some GA accidents.

There is another one where a TBM flies into icing conditions and within two minutes the plane stops flying. Scary!
 
Yup. Hearing "at 6k feet, the main spar snapped and the left wing separated form the aircraft" is enough to make me think twice about flying anywhere near this type of weather. He and his family likely had a couple minutes to think about what was happening :(
 
Yeah, the NTSB came out with a "be careful about NEXRAD" thing last year after a couple of accidents.

As I like to say, NEXRAD is strategic, not tactical.
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
Yup. Hearing "at 6k feet, the main spar snapped and the left wing separated form the aircraft" is enough to make me think twice about flying anywhere near this type of weather. He and his family likely had a couple minutes to think about what was happening :(
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I just watched this one last night and had the same reaction. I can't even imagine...
 
We need a good buffer, from storms & wake turbulence. An extra 3 minutes matters not at all.
 
Next rad is a good planning tool. Let's you know direction weather should be heading.always give a time delay before using it for avoidance.
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
Yup. Hearing "at 6k feet, the main spar snapped and the left wing separated form the aircraft" is enough to make me think twice about flying anywhere near this type of weather. He and his family likely had a couple minutes to think about what was happening :(
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In that scenario wouldn't a ballistic parachute likely of saved them?
 
thehulk06 said:
In that scenario wouldn't a ballistic parachute likely of saved them?
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That's a great question. Obviously a chute is better than no chute when the wings come off but I wonder about what affect the storm would have on the plane in a storm.

Anyone know what happens to a plane coming down under the chute in a storm?

Roll of the dice I guess?
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
That's a great question. Obviously a chute is better than no chute when the wings come off but I wonder about what affect the storm would have on the plane in a storm.

Anyone know what happens to a plane coming down under the chute in a storm?

Roll of the dice I guess?
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I think wind effects are going to play a part, but I don't know if things like turbulence and proximity to convective weather are more or less severe to a parachute compared to a flying airplane.

I'd sure like to have the chance to find out in that circumstance!
 
bullwinkle said:
I think wind effects are going to play a part, but I don't know if things like turbulence and proximity to convective weather are more or less severe to a parachute compared to a flying airplane.

I'd sure like to have the chance to find out in that circumstance!
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I am not trying to make light of anything but a strange funny thought I had was that if I were in a plane where the wing had just come off or in a plane parachuting down I would probably still be trying to steer it out of reflex.
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
I am not trying to make light of anything but a strange funny thought I had was that if I were in a plane where the wing had just come off or in a plane parachuting down I would probably still be trying to steer it out of reflex.
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Cirrus pilots have left the engine on to help maneuver somewhat.
 
Also remember besides the delay, NEXRAD detects precipitation (well, dust, sand, and anything physical in the air, but...) but should be combined with satellite imagery for a "big picture" look at things. NEXRAD by itself does not tell the entire story.
 
I use XM weather as much as anyone, but you have to be aware of the lag, I actually figure about a 10 minute lag and I'm usually not disappointed.;)
Very sad to listen to the recording, but it's good that we all learn from someone's tragic mistake. :dunno:
Night flying around thunderstorms in a piston single isn't my idea of a fun evening, it can be done safely, but the risks do go up if you aren't willing to land and wait an hour or so for the front to pass. :mad2:
 
Poor bastard. I feel for his family they had to pay the price for this mistake he made. He definitely had an attitude though if you listen to the recording.
 
How do you not check your attitude and double up on making better decisions when you have your kids in the plane?
 
Different situation but I just watched this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTzbY5e1CBE

Watching these and listening to the actions taken(or rather not taken) at different points you just want to throw up your hands and yell "COME ON!" but I guess it's not so straightforward when actually in the situation or these things wouldn't happen?
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
I am not trying to make light of anything but a strange funny thought I had was that if I were in a plane where the wing had just come off or in a plane parachuting down I would probably still be trying to steer it out of reflex.
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Well if you're in a thunderstorm you can ride the updrafts for quite a while.
 
Cavorter said:
Poor bastard. I feel for his family they had to pay the price for this mistake he made. He definitely had an attitude though if you listen to the recording.
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He didn't have an attitude. He just didn't take the help that was offered because he thought he had more information available to him.

But then, it's hearsay and that's only my opinion on it.
 
Yeah, I didn't hear an "attitude" in his voice. Even the first controller admitted that he was "hesitant to talk about the weather because it could change by the time he got to it", which to me didn't completely jibe with the way he described that conversation to his oncoming relief during shift change.

I think the pilot would have been fine if he'd flown farther south, and maybe started that diversion a little earlier. But from the data he thought he had, he thought he was okay. There was never a situation, until it was too late, where the controller suggested one thing and the pilot did something else because of his "attitude".
 
I was flying south out of Atlanta a couple years ago and I was showing a pretty good size area of heavy precip on my NEXRAD about 50 miles ahead. I asked for deviations and the controller suggested a heading that was directly towards the area I was showing. He said, "Trust me, it will be gone when you get there." ;) And it was. :D It was moving fast to the east and I tucked right in behind it without a bump. :D
Jim_R said:
Yeah, I didn't hear an "attitude" in his voice. Even the first controller admitted that he was "hesitant to talk about the weather because it could change by the time he got to it", which to me didn't completely jibe with the way he described that conversation to his oncoming relief during shift change.

I think the pilot would have been fine if he'd flown farther south, and maybe started that diversion a little earlier. But from the data he thought he had, he thought he was okay. There was never a situation, until it was too late, where the controller suggested one thing and the pilot did something else because of his "attitude".
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I'm pretty sure the AOPA videos do not use the actual voice recordings, but they use the transcripts and a voice actor. The simulator footage, though, can sometimes be really creepy. It looks just real enough, and it pretty much shows that physics doesn't have emotions and doesn't care how many of your kids are on board. I watch these a lot, knowing that the pilots involved probably aren't too much different from the rest of us - their screw-ups just happened to cost them way more.
 
sourdough44 said:
We need a good buffer, from storms & wake turbulence. An extra 3 minutes matters not at all.
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90% of storms are moving. Get on the back side and life is good. Never fly into the red areas, or areas that are yellow and turning red. That is when the lag will get you.
 
Jim_R said:
Yeah, I didn't hear an "attitude" in his voice. Even the first controller admitted that he was "hesitant to talk about the weather because it could change by the time he got to it", which to me didn't completely jibe with the way he described that conversation to his oncoming relief during shift change.

I think the pilot would have been fine if he'd flown farther south, and maybe started that diversion a little earlier. But from the data he thought he had, he thought he was okay. There was never a situation, until it was too late, where the controller suggested one thing and the pilot did something else because of his "attitude".
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Well I disagree. He was continually driving the situation and pushing the envelope because he didn't want to be late. The controller was the one trying to get him to deviate more or to consider the weather up ahead more. His comment that he would "play it by ear" was indicative of his attitude. Even the controller when talking on the landline to the next controller referred to this.

I don't know about the rest of you but in my case the situation tends to be reversed. I am the one asking the controller for a wider deviation around weather versus what the controller thinks I should be doing.

Maybe this was a voice actor. His voice sounded smug and overly self-confident to me.
 
We sure beat this topic to death. Reality in a non-radar aircraft is that a pilot will use NEXRAD to avoid weather. You don't have to predict the lag with expert precision if you follow the basic rules. Storms don't move that fast across the ground, give them at least 20 miles (depending), consider the direction of travel, and you should be fine. Crossing a front is more complicated and should be done very carefully without relying on NEXRAD. Bottom line is pilots need training for weather flying and many get none. Until this becomes a mandatory part of the
IFR ciriculum it will continue to happen.
 
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