Do you expect Avgas prices to spike because of hurricane Harvey?

GBSoren

GBSoren

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GBSoren
I see they are predicting a spike in gas prices because of Harvey shutting down the refineries in Houston. How likely is it that it'll also affect Avgas?
 
The real question is are we talking $.50 a gallon or less, $2/gallon, worse, or somewhere in between?
 
No reason for it to happen, but it might, nonetheless.
 
SCCutler said:
No reason for it to happen, but it might, nonetheless.
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12 refineries in temporary shut-down. And a whole lot of pipelines that need inspections. And a lot of trucks are going to have to roll to cover localized shortages.

It ain't gonna be cheap.
 
GBSoren said:
I see they are predicting a spike in gas prices because of Harvey shutting down the refineries in Houston. How likely is it that it'll also affect Avgas?
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In theory, really should not have an effect in most of the country.
Avgas is made in small batches spread around just a few refiners in the country. I believe only one of them is located in TX.
Second, all avgas is trucked or sent via rails or boat. None goes in the pipelines, cannot mix 100LL with regular gas.

So avgas in summary should be reasonably insulated from this specific incident. Combined with current above average storage reserves for regular auto fuel; with one week left in the summer peak driving season. I would postulate minimal supply constraints for avgas, and likely minimal constraints in most of the country for regular auto fuel also. So prices should be reasonably stable; except where someone wants to take advantage....

Tim
 
It's a safe bet that it will go up. Any excuse to up the prices.

It's kind of like asking what the chances are the Trump will tweet.
 
tspear said:
In theory, really should not have an effect in most of the country.
Avgas is made in small batches spread around just a few refiners in the country. I believe only one of them is located in TX.
Second, all avgas is trucked or sent via rails or boat. None goes in the pipelines, cannot mix 100LL with regular gas.

So avgas in summary should be reasonably insulated from this specific incident. Combined with current above average storage reserves for regular auto fuel; with one week left in the summer peak driving season. I would postulate minimal supply constraints for avgas, and likely minimal constraints in most of the country for regular auto fuel also. So prices should be reasonably stable; except where someone wants to take advantage....

Tim
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And I have some land I'd love to chat about with you. Right in the middle of Yuma, AZ.
 
murphey said:
And I have some land I'd love to chat about with you. Right in the middle of Yuma, AZ.
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I said in theory. :D
Such as "
In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not."

Tim
 
Clip4 said:
Fake news. There is no storm. Just a reason to raise fuel prices.
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Either way, I thought I'd stock up.

gas-cans.jpg


Those are decent gas cans, by the way. They're the only ones with EPA-compliant nozzles I've found that you can actually pour from without the fuel spilling all over the place. They also have a second handle on the side facing the bumper of the car that makes them very convenient to pour from.

Rich
 
Premium unleaded is $3.49 a gallon where I am. After Harvey, it went up $0.40 a gallon. Odd since we have a California specific formulation made here in California and crude oil production wouldn't affect supplies overnight. :rolleyes: Could it be... greed? Hmmmo_O
 
If it makes aircraft pricing on six-banger airplanes dip down, bring it on. :D
 
Hell, even as mogas prices have been going down the last few months, avgas has been going up, at least at my home drome, from $4.39 to $4.77.
 
RJM62 said:
Those are decent gas cans, by the way. They're the only ones with EPA-compliant nozzles I've found that you can actually pour from without the fuel spilling all over the place.
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Those exist?? I thought it was a requirement that when you fuel things up you're suppose to dump half the fuel over the thing that you're busy filling up.

Don't know if I'll get used to this newfangled way. Maybe I can just pour some fuel in a cup and dump it out all over my lawnmower to stay with the spirit of the EPA design. :eek:
 
rtk11 said:
Premium unleaded is $3.49 a gallon where I am. After Harvey, it went up $0.40 a gallon. Odd since we have a California specific formulation made here in California and crude oil production wouldn't affect supplies overnight. :rolleyes: Could it be... greed? Hmmmo_O
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It is a commodity market and folks will buy product wherever it is available. In other words a shortage in on part of the country will put pressure on the supply in other parts of the country because the product can be transported long distance via rail and pipeline.
 
Here in Michigan in just one day went up $0.30 and more expected.
 
Clark1961 said:
It is a commodity market and folks will buy product wherever it is available. In other words a shortage in on part of the country will put pressure on the supply in other parts of the country because the product can be transported long distance via rail and pipeline.
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It's impractical to transport a meaningful amount of gasoline from the west coast to the Gulf on short notice. There's not all that much unused capacity when the economy is healthy.
 
FormerHangie said:
It's impractical to transport a meaningful amount of gasoline from the west coast to the Gulf on short notice. There's not all that much unused capacity when the economy is healthy.
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Which is why the price is going up, because impractical as it sounds, they WILL transport it... and those costs will be covered by everyone...
 
denverpilot said:
Which is why the price is going up, because impractical as it sounds, they WILL transport it... and those costs will be covered by everyone...
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I think you'll find that if this drags on for a while, you'll see shipments from Europe, not from the West coast.The only practical way to move a substantial amount of gasoline in an on demand situation is by ship. Pull up a pipeline map of the U. S., the capacity from the west coast to the gulf is limited, as is the supply of unused railroad tank cars, as well as the train capacity to move them and the means to unload them.
 
FormerHangie said:
I think you'll find that if this drags on for a while, you'll see shipments from Europe, not from the West coast.The only practical way to move a substantial amount of gasoline in an on demand situation is by ship. Pull up a pipeline map of the U. S., the capacity from the west coast to the gulf is limited, as is the supply of unused railroad tank cars, as well as the train capacity to move them and the means to unload them.
Click to expand...

Could be. Still raises prices. I'm sure the traders are also all having all sorts of extra headaches seeing who and where they can buy from. And of course they'll buy stuff and then realize there's no tankage to put it in... well that's what they constantly did back when I played in that game.

They will earn their keep for a while with this one. Few less golf games, perhaps. :)

Always was fun in ops meetings... "Hey, that's a nice price on that... you realize why they were selling it that cheap is their tanks are full and so are ours... and half of them are down for maintenance. Where you going to put it all? Want to give them a ring and see how fast they want to deliver all that?"

Of course software was going to fix all that... chuckle... (It never did, no matter what new software they tried... because... people... and stuff breaking... and... stuff. But SAP was the new hotness after I left. Probably didn't work any better than the stuff on the mainframe. Just told them they screwed up faster when they ran the weekly reports... hahaha... didn't have to wait an hour for the report "batch" to run...)
 
deonb said:
Those exist?? I thought it was a requirement that when you fuel things up you're suppose to dump half the fuel over the thing that you're busy filling up.

Don't know if I'll get used to this newfangled way. Maybe I can just pour some fuel in a cup and dump it out all over my lawnmower to stay with the spirit of the EPA design. :eek:
Click to expand...

I get your facetiousness, but that aside, those gas cans are excellent. The nozzle doesn't open up until you push the buttons, but once you do, the fuel flows with gusto. It also stops immediately when you release the buttons. I carry them on the carrier for safety's sake, but they also seal very well. The air intake is through the nozzle so they don't need a vent hole.

Also, because of the second handle molded into the back, it's convenient regardless of the orientation of the fill hole. Whether it's a car, lawn mower, snow blower, ultralight, or whatever, I no longer spill a drop of gas. I never used one to fuel a certificated airplane, but I'm sure it would work great because of the second handle and the fact that you can turn it so the nozzle faces straight down without any fuel dripping out until you press the buttons.

I don't usually get excited about things like gas cans, but these ones really are that good. No one I've recommended them too has been disappointed. Available at True Value, Tractor Supply, and probably a bazillion other places.

Rich
 
FormerHangie said:
The only practical way to move a substantial amount of gasoline in an on demand situation is by ship.
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So what do you do if the port facilities to unload the product is damaged? What do you do if you can unload the product and all the distribution infrastructure is damaged? Where ya gonna go then? :dunno:
 
azblackbird said:
So what do you do if the port facilities to unload the product is damaged? What do you do if you can unload the product and all the distribution infrastructure is damaged? Where ya gonna go then? :dunno:
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In that case, you're not. I don't think that's the case here.

After Katrina, some of the ports in the Northeast received European gasoline shipments to make up for the shortfall that was caused by the closure of the Colonial pipeline. It helped the supply in the Northeast, didn't do anything for those of us in the Carolinas or Georgia.
 
RJM62 said:
I get your facetiousness, but that aside, those gas cans are excellent. The nozzle doesn't open up until you push the buttons, but once you do, the fuel flows with gusto. It also stops immediately when you release the buttons. I carry them on the carrier for safety's sake, but they also seal very well. The air intake is through the nozzle so they don't need a vent hole.

Also, because of the second handle molded into the back, it's convenient regardless of the orientation of the fill hole. Whether it's a car, lawn mower, snow blower, ultralight, or whatever, I no longer spill a drop of gas. I never used one to fuel a certificated airplane, but I'm sure it would work great because of the second handle and the fact that you can turn it so the nozzle faces straight down without any fuel dripping out until you press the buttons.

I don't usually get excited about things like gas cans, but these ones really are that good. No one I've recommended them too has been disappointed. Available at True Value, Tractor Supply, and probably a bazillion other places.

Rich
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Thanks for the pirep Rich. I always spill a little gas when adding gas to my generator. Then after hurricane season ends, I spill a LOT of gas trying to use it in my truck so it doesn't sit up until next season. These will come in real handy several times a year for me.

edit:
After a little research, I found they cost around $25 for a 2.5 gallon can and about $30 for a 5 gallon can. I would pay that if I am sure they work as advertised, but the first review I saw wasn't too complimentary.

Of course, depending on where I buy it, I might be able to take it back if it leaks.
And I wonder if that child proofing ratchet can be removed. That looks like a PITA.
 
Last edited:
I'll have to try one of those, so far I've yet to get a modern gas can that doesn't leak everywhere, barely flow, or (usually) both.
 
rtk11 said:
Premium unleaded is $3.49 a gallon where I am. After Harvey, it went up $0.40 a gallon. Odd since we have a California specific formulation made here in California and crude oil production wouldn't affect supplies overnight. :rolleyes: Could it be... greed? Hmmmo_O
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It's called "futures".
 
My understanding is that gasoline is refined "locally" or at least regionally. So why have the auto gas prices shot up 50c in the last few days in Philadelphia? is gasoline being piped elsewhere to make up for storm damage shortages, or are the distributors greedy bastages taking advantage?
 
Shortages & price spikes here
Only high test avlbl in my town (500sm from corpus)
 
Mogas already up 40 cents per gallon since Tuesday. 4 cents between 9 AM and noon today. I saw a couple of stations with regular at $3.00 per gallon, average seems to be between $2.59 and $2.65.

San Antonio, however, seems to be put of gas and panic/hoarding going on. 500 of 600-odd stations were completely out of gas by noon today. People were filling anything that could hold gas, including "household buckets". At the rate things are going, we'll be over $3.00 by early next week.

And Rick Perry had the nerve to simply tell people not to go joyriding.
 
JOhnH said:
Thanks for the pirep Rich. I always spill a little gas when adding gas to my generator. Then after hurricane season ends, I spill a LOT of gas trying to use it in my truck so it doesn't sit up until next season. These will come in real handy several times a year for me.

edit:
After a little research, I found they cost around $25 for a 2.5 gallon can and about $30 for a 5 gallon can. I would pay that if I am sure they work as advertised, but the first review I saw wasn't too complimentary.

Of course, depending on where I buy it, I might be able to take it back if it leaks.
And I wonder if that child proofing ratchet can be removed. That looks like a PITA.
Click to expand...

That review was from six years ago. The design of the collar must have changed since then because the ones I have don't have the offensive little tabs the reviewer complained about. They also don't leak at all.

By the way, the nozzles are available without the cans if you already have cans that you like.

Rich
 
cowman said:
I'll have to try one of those, so far I've yet to get a modern gas can that doesn't leak everywhere, barely flow, or (usually) both.
Click to expand...

The flow rate from the No-Spill cans is very strong. But it's also variable depending on how much you push the button, so it's controllable.

Rich
 
paflyer said:
My understanding is that gasoline is refined "locally" or at least regionally. So why have the auto gas prices shot up 50c in the last few days in Philadelphia? is gasoline being piped elsewhere to make up for storm damage shortages, or are the distributors greedy bastages taking advantage?
Click to expand...

Colonial had to shut down two pipelines serving the East Coast. One carried primarily Mogas and the other primarily Avgas. They should be going back online within a few days, hopefully.

Rich
 
RJM62 said:
Colonial had to shut down two pipelines serving the East Coast. One carried primarily Mogas and the other primarily Avgas. They should be going back online within a few days, hopefully.

Rich
Click to expand...
Avgas or aviation fuel?
 
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