DFW to ATL.. Not Today

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Alexb2000

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Alexb2000
I was planning to fly KADS (Dallas-Addison) to KPDK (Atlanta) today. When I woke up at 0430 it looked very possible. My initial plan was to cross the storm system around Memphis at 190ish. Well as I got ready, I kept watching it. Tops are rising, from at 220 to 270 in the last hour above Memphis. Also there is a trapped low pressure area all the way across LA. Lots of high level CB's in LA so... I'm not going.

I hate being stopped by the weather, but it happens.

Would any of you piston flyers try it? If so how and where (just for conversation, I already made the call)?

Radar:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar
 
What's the plane equipped with? And how fast?

Never any harm in saying "no-go".

Given what I see in the raw model maps (and not a full-depth review of current conditions), I might have considered going up over Memphis if I could have gotten out early. I'd probably sit out midday, and look for a break south of Memphis later in the day/evening.

But that's based on having Nexrad, turbocharging, oxygen, and a stormscope. And instruments w/GPS and HSI/FD. I'd have a "plan B" prepped and briefed in case conditions were unsuitable as I got closer.
 
wsuffa said:
But that's based on having Nexrad, turbocharging, oxygen, and a stormscope. And instruments w/GPS and HSI/FD.
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I've got all the above, cruise is about 150-160. T206H.

My other problem was the 620 miles direct. Doable with reserves, but any deviation would require a fuel stop.

The trend over Memphis is getting worse as I mentioned and the system is moving N-NE so that will likely continue. I believe that route just closed out on me.
 
Your call was a good one. No way I'd have launched towards that, unless I really felt like getting a surprise visit to an unidentified southern hotel, for fun.

I used to fly KADS - KTLH frequently, and it's a bigger pain east bound than westbound, because when you're WB, you can ly to the leading edge of the system, land and wait out its passage, while eastbound, that jest don't work!
 
Good decision! I wouldn't have flown the 421 either.;)
 
SCCutler said:
I used to fly KADS - KTLH frequently, and it's a bigger pain east bound than westbound, because when you're WB, you can ly to the leading edge of the system, land and wait out its passage, while eastbound, that jest don't work!
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You're absolutely right E bound is much harder. Today even W bound I'm not sure that strategy would have worked. Looking at the surrounding high pressure it seems like the system is boxed in and still generating convection with the warmer temps.

Side note- My cargo flying buddy called me a big P (again). His suggestion was to hit it low, 8Kish, strap in, slow to Va, hand fly, and get a block. Bounce around for a couple of hundred miles and be done with it. I told him that's why they pay him the $20K a year, to take those kinds of risks.
 
Most days you can go. Occasionally there are some where you want to stay home. Flying the airlines is no different, other than that the plane you want to fly in is probably stuck on the ground in a blizzard in Chicago.

Alexb2000 said:
You're absolutely right E bound is much harder. Today even W bound I'm not sure that strategy would have worked. Looking at the surrounding high pressure it seems like the system is boxed in and still generating convection with the warmer temps.

Side note- My cargo flying buddy called me a big P (again). His suggestion was to hit it low, 8Kish, strap in, slow to Va, hand fly, and get a block. Bounce around for a couple of hundred miles and be done with it. I told him that's why they pay him the $20K a year, to take those kinds of risks.
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Alexb2000 said:
You're absolutely right E bound is much harder. Today even W bound I'm not sure that strategy would have worked. Looking at the surrounding high pressure it seems like the system is boxed in and still generating convection with the warmer temps.

Side note- My cargo flying buddy called me a big P (again). His suggestion was to hit it low, 8Kish, strap in, slow to Va, hand fly, and get a block. Bounce around for a couple of hundred miles and be done with it. I told him that's why they pay him the $20K a year, to take those kinds of risks.
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:yeahthat: at some point it comes down to can you do it vs should you do it?
I'm not a 20 something trying to show how tough I am, I don't mind a little weather, but I have the option of staying on the ground or buying a Delta ticket if I NEED to get somewhere.:D
 
N747JB said:
:yeahthat: at some point it comes down to can you do it vs should you do it?
I'm not a 20 something trying to show how tough I am, I don't mind a little weather, but I have the option of staying on the ground or buying a Delta ticket if I NEED to get somewhere.:D
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I'm a long ways from 20 something also. I sent my wife on American with the appropriate last minute price gouging. Now at least I can go to the POA dinner at KADS without issue and watch what I want on TV.

Lemons to Lemonade!
 
Alexb2000 said:
I'm a long ways from 20 something also. I sent my wife on American with the appropriate last minute price gouging. Now at least I can go to the POA dinner at KADS without issue and watch what I want on TV.

Lemons to Lemonade!
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That's right, better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than in the air wishing you were on the ground! :D
 
I had a very similar situation about two weeks ago heading from KSAT to KFXE. There was a nasty line of weather from the Gulf through eastern Texas into Louisiana, etc. Lots of yellow and some red. I thought I would be over it at FL270.

As I got close, I realized that it was continuing to build. I got clearance to FL280 but was still IMC. I was about half way through the line and it was relatively smooth. I requested a right turn of about 30 degrees, as that was the shortest route out of the weather. As I made the turn, the turbulence started to hit the aircraft. I slowed it way down and got out of the nasty stuff after about ten minutes. It was not horrible, but I was very happy that my wife and kids were not on the airplane.

I usually work hard to avoid this kind of weather, but in this case, with altitude above most of the heavy convection, XM weather, radar, and reports of relatively smooth transitions, I went through it. Even still, I was not comfortable in the turbulence and it barely registered on my G meter!

Abram
 
They're now saying that the Kansas-based PC-12 that broke up over Florida was probably because of delays in the XM system.

Abram said:
I had a very similar situation about two weeks ago heading from KSAT to KFXE. There was a nasty line of weather from the Gulf through eastern Texas into Louisiana, etc. Lots of yellow and some red. I thought I would be over it at FL270.

As I got close, I realized that it was continuing to build. I got clearance to FL280 but was still IMC. I was about half way through the line and it was relatively smooth. I requested a right turn of about 30 degrees, as that was the shortest route out of the weather. As I made the turn, the turbulence started to hit the aircraft. I slowed it way down and got out of the nasty stuff after about ten minutes. It was not horrible, but I was very happy that my wife and kids were not on the airplane.

I usually work hard to avoid this kind of weather, but in this case, with altitude above most of the heavy convection, XM weather, radar, and reports of relatively smooth transitions, I went through it. Even still, I was not comfortable in the turbulence and it barely registered on my G meter!

Abram
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Alexb2000 said:
I've got all the above, cruise is about 150-160. T206H.

My other problem was the 620 miles direct. Doable with reserves, but any deviation would require a fuel stop.
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That would have been a factor for me. A fuel stop in a 4 hour trip toward that mess would have been a show-stopper unless I could get out even earlier to compensate as it would add 30 minutes to the trip (reducing ability to beat the storm if done before MEM, and reducing reserves if made after MEM). I'd want extra reserves.

The trend over Memphis is getting worse as I mentioned and the system is moving N-NE so that will likely continue. I believe that route just closed out on me.
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I don't disagree, though the current Memphis weather is light rain/mist.

The models show that the system should dissipate a bit over the next few hours, at least in the area south of Memphis, but more precip moving east. The ADDS convective forecast shows that there is a fairly low potential for convective around Memphis over the next couple of hours, and the CIP Icing model shows no real icing at/below 9000'. MEM TAF shows VCTS after 2000z.

Taken together, I wouldn't launch now (knowing that it's 2 hours to Memphis from ADS), but I might have launched 3+ hours ago (assuming I didn't have a reluctant passenger on-board). I tend to watch the weather trends the night before so I know what to expect, and update them in the morning.

Good call on your part, I've certainly made conservative calls in the past that turned out to be too conservative or not conservative enough. I'm just looking at the logic I might have followed in your situation.
 
wsuffa said:
Good call on your part, I've certainly made conservative calls in the past that turned out to be too conservative or not conservative enough. I'm just looking at the logic I might have followed in your situation.
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Sometimes it's the other things in combination with the weather that work into the decision process. There was a seat on the 9:45 AA flight. I didn't feel comfortable enough with the distance and weather not to make a fuel stop just prior to the storm. That would have cost me 45 min and possibly allowed the weather to worsen. I like a lot of gas when crossing something like that and I was expecting ATL to be at least light IFR. My wife really needed to be in ATL this weekend for a very sick friend, so flying up to Memphis and turning around would have been bad for her (and me). Last factor, we planned to return on Saturday. The weather also looked questionable then, so that factored in as a potential PIA as well.

Mr. Murphy loves to mess with pilots. 300' ceilings around DFW have given way to clear skies and I'll be sitting around thinking about your comments.

I appreciate the feedback.
 
I would've given it a shot. Looks like you can pick your way through the north part.

But, I would never say someone else should if not comfortable with it.

Hopefully this won't screw up my connection tonight in Charlotte... Sigh.
 
I am VFR Only and even though I have a Turbo I do not try to pop over Tstorms.

However this is the type of system that I referred to in another thread this week where I would fly up to the back edge of the system, land, refuel, dinner and wait it out to see if it dissipates shortly after sunset. If it does I finish my trip Night VFR, if not I spend the night and head out early tomorrow morning before the Tstorms build again.

Leaving from Wichita, I might have headed towards Kennent, MO- the north end where it is thin/green (Tenn/KY) to see if it dissipated quicker and then if I got through later tonight finish my flight into Florida Night VFR.

It seems about half my flights to Florida go this way vs direct through in one shot. I don't mind the stop as I don't like flying more than 3 hrs in any one sorti.
 
Alexb2000 said:
Sometimes it's the other things in combination with the weather that work into the decision process. There was a seat on the 9:45 AA flight. I didn't feel comfortable enough with the distance and weather not to make a fuel stop just prior to the storm. That would have cost me 45 min and possibly allowed the weather to worsen. I like a lot of gas when crossing something like that and I was expecting ATL to be at least light IFR.
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As do I. Hence my comments about leaving earlier to compensate.
My wife really needed to be in ATL this weekend for a very sick friend, so flying up to Memphis and turning around would have been bad for her (and me).
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Oh, having a passenger on a must-go mission would have certainly factored in. I didn't have that info.

Another consideration (in that same light) is that Memphis is an airline hub - had you needed to terminate @ Memphis I'd be willing to bet that there would be seats on one of DL's hub-hub flights from Memphis.

Last factor, we planned to return on Saturday. The weather also looked questionable then, so that factored in as a potential PIA as well.

Mr. Murphy loves to mess with pilots. 300' ceilings around DFW have given way to clear skies and I'll be sitting around thinking about your comments.

I appreciate the feedback.
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Two tools you might want to learn from & compare to your experiences:

1) pretty much everything on the ADDS site, especially winds, convection, and icing.

2) The graphical forecast models that are available through WeatherUnderground and a couple of other sources (since their deal with TWC, I find that WU has made changes to the weather models mapping that make them harder to use for an experienced user, but I think most of the data is there).
 
wabower said:
They're now saying that the Kansas-based PC-12 that broke up over Florida was probably because of delays in the XM system.
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You can absolutely believe that exact incident was going through my mind as I was approaching the line. The radar gave me some confidence, but I agree that such conditions are to be avoided whenever possible in a small aircraft.

Abram
 
I think back to Scott Crossfield when situations like this come up. A more than competent pilot, all the data he needed, a good, safe, well equipped plane. All for naught.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
I would've given it a shot. Looks like you can pick your way through the north part.

But, I would never say someone else should if not comfortable with it.

Hopefully this won't screw up my connection tonight in Charlotte... Sigh.
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To keep this productive you would have left DFW knowing what we knew then? If so why?

I believe that's different from encountering the same thing in flight, in that circumstance I would have tried too, until my observations/information said otherwise.
 
Alexb2000 said:
To keep this productive you would have left DFW knowing what we knew then? If so why?
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Good question. My guess is probably, but since I didn't look at the weather first thing when you needed to make the decision, it's not known for certain.

Like Wayne, I've found the majority of times you can find a way through even bad weather. Perhaps some of that weather I flew through when I was still invincible and immortal, and therefore have learned what I can handle and what I don't want to.

That was a good-sized storm, so I'm not saying you should have gone or that I would have made the go decision in the morning with the information you had. But, with a naturally aspirated piston twin and on-board radar, I've done pretty well.

I believe that's different from encountering the same thing in flight, in that circumstance I would have tried too, until my observations/information said otherwise.
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Well, you need to make your decision based on the info you've got and your comfort level.
 
wabower said:
Just read it, complete with real radar returns as well as those he would have been watching. NTSB maybe?
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Thanks, I'll try to find that. It would be interesting to know if he was relying only on the XM, or was using the onboard radar as well. XM is nice for planning, but you should be using the real deal for avoidance.
 
What did it look like down low? When the weather goes to heck, I head for the deck.
 
Henning said:
What did it look like down low? When the weather goes to heck, I head for the deck.
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3-500'. I wasn't worried about getting in on an approach if needed, but I wouldn't have been doing any scud running.
 
Alexb2000 said:
3-500'. I wasn't worried about getting in on an approach if needed, but I wouldn't have been doing any scud running.
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3-500' I going, but I worked down there and lower for around 1500hrs on pipeline and Ag so I'm perfectly comfortable there, especially with 2 engines. I'm more comfortable down there than in a convective cloud.
 
Henning said:
3-500' I going, but I worked down there and lower for around 1500hrs on pipeline and Ag so I'm perfectly comfortable there, especially with 2 engines. I'm more comfortable down there than in a convective cloud.
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Yeeesh, its not like this trip was to extract a SEAL team from some hostile country. I had a good time at the POA diner last night, wife made it on American, just wasn't worth pushing the situation IMO; although several have said they would have gone.
 
Alexb2000 said:
Yeeesh, its not like this trip was to extract a SEAL team from some hostile country. I had a good time at the POA diner last night, wife made it on American, just wasn't worth pushing the situation IMO; although several have said they would have gone.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling you on canceling, just saying that with my background I'm good with that. There have been times when I was there and wished I wasn't but on pipeline contracts you have to get it done within a time window, often 3 days. If the last 2 days were crap, you go anyway. Having done it in 1/4 mile vis and ice fog bouncing along the right of way, 3-500' takes on a new perspective as that would be at least 200' over my normal patrol altitude of 100'.
 
Henning said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm not calling you on canceling, just saying that with my background I'm good with that. There have been times when I was there and wished I wasn't but on pipeline contracts you have to get it done within a time window, often 3 days. If the last 2 days were crap, you go anyway. Having done it in 1/4 mile vis and ice fog bouncing along the right of way, 3-500' takes on a new perspective as that would be at least 200' over my normal patrol altitude of 100'.
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I can feel my little boys shriveling up as we speak.
 
Tony_Scarpelli said:
I can feel my little boys shriveling up as we speak.
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It really wasn't too bad, on any given route there were only a few sections that were imminent death if the engine crapped out, most of the time you could land on the right of way or very close to it without getting too badly hurt. That's why I took the PA-12 over the 150, tail wheel and chrome moly = decent crash worthiness, add a 4 point Hooker Harness and a helmet and the chances of flying it into a survivable crash are pretty good. I was crashing stuff at high speed long before I started flying so it doesn't bother me a bunch as long as I can see my crash zone.
 
One of the most important things I've learned when flying friends and family, whatever you do, don't scare them. Pilots like proving what conditions they can handle, natural tendency, especially for men. The problem is ONE really rough flight, or really bad experience, and the passengers will never fly with you again. If that passenger happens to be your wife that doesn't say a word when you spend thousands on flying, well that really is a problem.

I can't count how many guys have stopped flying because their wives wouldn't fly with them anymore. Something to consider on these go-no-go's.
 
I would have gone and picked my way through with XM weather. The radar screen shot shows a nice open area to the south as an out.
 
Alexb2000 said:
One of the most important things I've learned when flying friends and family, whatever you do, don't scare them. Pilots like proving what conditions they can handle, natural tendency, especially for men. The problem is ONE really rough flight, or really bad experience, and the passengers will never fly with you again. If that passenger happens to be your wife that doesn't say a word when you spend thousands on flying, well that really is a problem.

I can't count how many guys have stopped flying because their wives wouldn't fly with them anymore. Something to consider on these go-no-go's.
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And that's exactly why I said that having a passenger would factor into my decision. Especially one that may be/come a reluctant flyer.
 
Geico266 said:
I would have gone and picked my way through with XM weather. The radar screen shot shows a nice open area to the south as an out.
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I'm not following, LA was a solid CB line top to bottom. South as in out in the gulf?
 
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