Depreciation on a 182

WDD said:
You are right. Nothing is guaranteed. It’s a high probability estimate.
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Yeah, and 2020 was definitely not a 10% return on my portfolio. Nor were a number of other years over the past 20
 
If I had 300k to spend on a 180, I'd get something older for under 200k and pour some money into it. paint, interior, avionics and engine. Find something that doesn't need 1 or 2 of those for a bit higher price or all for a lower price. Get avionics with a reasonable upgrade path like GTNXXX and G500xi. Does everything a G1000 does and can be upgraded for reasonable $$. You'll be out roughly the same as your "depreciation" on the newer one and have exactly what you want. If you sell in a cycle like we are in now, you might get 50% of your incremental $$ on improvements back.
 
EdFred said:
Yeah, and 2020 was definitely not a 10% return on my portfolio. Nor were a number of other years over the past 20
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The S&P returned about 15% in 2020, so I thought it was a pretty good year. But you're correct that nothing is guaranteed. The worst return over 10 years on the S&P is negative 3% per year.
 
My dad bought a Turbo 182 new from the factory in 2005 (G1000). He paid $335K compare that to what you see those selling for now. Also - maybe get a bit frustrated that Textron has jacked the price of a 182 into the stratosphere when all the costs of development and tooling have already been paid for. Now they are in a situation where they make less planes so each one costs more and that problem gets worse every year.
-Rant over-

I do agree with the posters that recommend a slightly older 182 that has been thoroughly upgraded with modern panel and interior. Even better with an engine upgrade. The G3X and GFC500 combination I have in my plane is equal to or (probably is) better than a G1000 and it has a clear, manageable upgrade path. G1000 planes are expensive and sometimes not possible to upgrade because the entire G1000 system is a package designed to work together. Look at the hassle and cost that G1000 owners went through with ADS-B.
 
If you are looking at single year returns then you shouldn't be in the stock market. Play craps instead.

Average annual return on S&P 500 for last:

5 years - 14.5%
10 years - 11.8%
15 years - 7.9%
20 years - 6.3%
25 years - 7.6%
30 years - 8.2%
35 years - 8.4%
40 years - 8.9%

Buuut ...

Average annual return from 2001 to 2011: 1.1%
Average annual return from 1999 to 2009: -4.4%
 
EdFred said:
Yeah, and 2020 was definitely not a 10% return on my portfolio. Nor were a number of other years over the past 20
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Depends on your risk comfort level. Vanguard 500 index fund over a few years is up and down - but if you hold, it was above 10% on average.
 
Ed Haywood said:
If you are looking at single year returns then you shouldn't be in the stock market. Play craps instead.

Average annual return on S&P 500 for last:

5 years - 14.5%
10 years - 11.8%
15 years - 7.9%
20 years - 6.3%
25 years - 7.6%
30 years - 8.2%
35 years - 8.4%
40 years - 8.9%

Buuut ...

Average annual return from 2001 to 2011: 1.1%
Average annual return from 1999 to 2009: -4.4%
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Yep. Packaging two downturns - tech bubble and real estate crash - can drop your average. But I held a didn’t sell off - and from 99 to today it gave me a nice return.

If you need year to year positive you’re not getting a guaranteed 10%.
 
JEB said:
My dad bought a Turbo 182 new from the factory in 2005 (G1000). He paid $335K compare that to what you see those selling for now. Also - maybe get a bit frustrated that Textron has jacked the price of a 182 into the stratosphere when all the costs of development and tooling have already been paid for. Now they are in a situation where they make less planes so each one costs more and that problem gets worse every year.
-Rant over-
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Perfect - this is the point I was trying to make but with a good real-world example. On one hand, I think it is totally justified to consider the potential for major depreciation expense on newer airframes (and - LOL - I would consider a 17 year old 2004 182 “newer”). BUT, 17 years ago 182s were a hell of a lot less expensive than new 2021 182s are now. I’d bet that same 2004 T182 is still in the $300k+ range! So the real-world depreciation that the 2004 182 has experienced is actually effectively zero or could even be positive, accounting for more airframe and engine hours.

So, I definitely think you’re right to consider it and while I would personally expect a major depreciation hit for a “newish” 182, in the case of a 2004 182 bought new, there essentially hasn’t been any depreciation at all.
 
...and I can think of one person that bought a restart 206 brand new (not sure what year) in the $300k range IIRC, and I don’t think there is hardly a single restart 206 on the market for less than that, regardless of year or options. Shoot, even the “legacy” 206s are starting to push that kind of pricing, hence why I haven’t bought one (ask me how I know!!).
 
Older Cessnas have been helped by there still being the types sold new — at prices the manufacturer can afford to sell them at today — which has gone up dramatically.

It helps highlight the older ones as “value” aircraft in comparison, when well maintained.

“If a new one is over half a million bucks...”

Drove the prices right up.
 
These prices are one of the reasons that I ended up buying a 1971 Beechcraft A36 and then bringing it into the future.
For less than a G1000 182, I have a 1359# UL, cruise speeds between 172 and 185 (LOP VS ROP), a modern glass panel that looks like a Garmin advertisement and an airframe that’s certified in the Utility category and the plane is MUCH nicer to fly. It just didn’t make sense for me to look at the G1000 options. Here’s the kicker - if I wanted to sell it, I could get back all of my investment.
 
JEB said:
These prices are one of the reasons that I ended up buying a 1971 Beechcraft A36 and then bringing it into the future.
For less than a G1000 182, I have a 1359# UL, cruise speeds between 172 and 185 (LOP VS ROP), a modern glass panel that looks like a Garmin advertisement and an airframe that’s certified in the Utility category and the plane is MUCH nicer to fly. It just didn’t make sense for me to look at the G1000 options. Here’s the kicker - if I wanted to sell it, I could get back all of my investment.
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Pictures of the panel or it didn't happen ...
 
You win. That is a vey impressive panel! Dual G3X, back up G5, GTN 650, GTR 200 Nav/Com, GFC 500 AP? Probably also a GTX 345? I assume you drive most things through the G3X? Not familiar with that audio panel.
 
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WDD said:
You win. That is a vey impressive panel! Dual G3X, back up G5, GTN 650, GTR 200 Nav/Com, GFC 500 AP? Probably also a GTX 345? I assume you drive most things through the G3X? Not familiar with that audio panel.
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Thanks.
Yes, that’s a GTX-345. The audio panel is a PS Engineering PMA450. The 2nd radio is a GNC255.
 
JEB said:
These prices are one of the reasons that I ended up buying a 1971 Beechcraft A36 and then bringing it into the future.
For less than a G1000 182, I have a 1359# UL, cruise speeds between 172 and 185 (LOP VS ROP), a modern glass panel that looks like a Garmin advertisement and an airframe that’s certified in the Utility category and the plane is MUCH nicer to fly. It just didn’t make sense for me to look at the G1000 options. Here’s the kicker - if I wanted to sell it, I could get back all of my investment.
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That's a very nice Bonanza, but for someone like myself, with recently acquired IR, and only 140 hours, it's a bit too much of an airplane. I'm looking for a solid IFR platform to build hours on and take on weekend trips with my two older kids. I don't think Bonanza is a good first airplane, and I don't even want to ask for an insurance quote on a high-performance complex aircraft with my level of limited experience.
 
That's maybe the nicest retrofit I have ever seen. Nothing legacy left. Mind giving an idea of cost?
 
Jeb, who did that panel work for you?
 
Ed Haywood said:
That's maybe the nicest retrofit I have ever seen. Nothing legacy left. Mind giving an idea of cost?
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It's more than just the equipment. There isn't an original wire in my plane. All lighting changed to LED. Breaker panels fully refreshed. Everything covered in leather, new one piece panel, new glare shield. Anything chrome was re-chromed, all the plastic was replaced or refreshed with new paint and placards. 75K total.

WDD said:
Jeb, who did that panel work for you?
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The shop that did it was in Conroe Texas - they since folded. My understanding is that the owner was taking deposits and then using the money to finish earlier jobs. When he folded, he left a bunch of planes wide open - full on electrical spaghetti - in his hangar. It's a total shame. He and his team did super high quality work, but something happened behind the scenes... I love what they did for me, but I hate that they took 5 months and they left a bunch of owners in bad shape when things fell apart. Only reason I'm giving this detail is so that others can understand how important it is to really - REALLY research a shop you're spending this kind of cash and leaving your baby with.
 
Gordon Freeman said:
That's a very nice Bonanza, but for someone like myself, with recently acquired IR, and only 140 hours, it's a bit too much of an airplane. I'm looking for a solid IFR platform to build hours on and take on weekend trips with my two older kids. I don't think Bonanza is a good first airplane, and I don't even want to ask for an insurance quote on a high-performance complex aircraft with my level of limited experience.
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I understand and you're wise to be thinking about where you are in your ability level.

I was flying mostly Cessnas, including a 182RG - and sometimes renting an SR20 when I bought my plane. I had done a few hours of SR22 transition training. In my opinion (and that's all this is), the SR22 was a harder plane to adapt to. The Bonanza is fast, but it can be managed easily. The only thing that might affect your insurance is RG time and time in type. When I had 100 hours in type, insurance dropped further. The insurance agent told me that the biggest influences on price are hull value and whether or not a pilot has an IFR rating. It might not hurt to at least ask an agent what pricing would look like for you. You might be surprised. A Bonanza will probably have a lower hull value than a G1000 182 - so much so that any increase in cost for being a retract is offset by the lower hull value.

If you check BeechTalk.com You can find mentors in your area that would be willing to speak with you in detail and might even take you flying - I would in a heartbeat if you were in the Southern California area.
 
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