(de)value of missing logs?

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onwards

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onwards
Question to you experienced owners and pilots:

Say I found a plane I am interested in, it passes a comprehensive prebuy inspection/annual just fine, and flies "straight and true".

The plane misses the first 1000 hours of its logs, but has since logged another 3000, with two engine overhauls. It was registered in a different country and imported here twenty years ago without those initial logs. It is all properly documented.

What value reduction would you assign to the missing first logs? think in terms of percentage of the purchase price. Is 20% a sufficient hit? (that is, $10K off $50K for a comparable plane).
 
Interesting question. My non-owner and inexperienced pilot opinion would be that, since it's got 3000 logged hours and a clean bill of health from the pre-buy inspection, a minimal discount for the lack of logs. Maybe 5%, if that. As a buyer I'd want a larger discount, and as a seller I'd want less. :)
 
If the logs are missing you might want to order the airplane information CD from the FAA. Doing that would have saved my brother-in-law a world of hurt when he bought his plane.
 
Old Geek said:
If the logs are missing you might want to order the airplane information CD from the FAA. Doing that would have saved my brother-in-law a world of hurt when he bought his plane.
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Can you elaborate further, please?
 
onwards said:
Question to you experienced owners and pilots:

Say I found a plane I am interested in, it passes a comprehensive prebuy inspection/annual just fine, and flies "straight and true".

The plane misses the first 1000 hours of its logs, but has since logged another 3000, with two engine overhauls. It was registered in a different country and imported here twenty years ago without those initial logs. It is all properly documented.

What value reduction would you assign to the missing first logs? think in terms of percentage of the purchase price. Is 20% a sufficient hit? (that is, $10K off $50K for a comparable plane).
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Unless this is a rare collector plane where the provenance matters, I wouldn't assign any hit at all. That's less useless weight you have to carry or store. There is nothing significant to the value of your average 172 or PA 28 though.
 
Henning said:
Unless this is a rare collector plane where the provenance matters, I wouldn't assign any hit at all. That's less useless weight you have to carry or store. There is nothing significant to the value of your average 172 or PA 28 though.
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It's a Cherokee 6.

I found out more about its history. Early in life it was used in a criminal operation, discovered and confiscated by a foreign govt and then eventually resold in the US, where it went through all the formal procedures of getting it - not sure what the right term is, but US-worthy? I have run all the online inquiries I could against various tools (like the FAA online ones and so on) and it all seems to check out. Documentation of all of this is available, too, the only thing missing are those logbooks for the first 1000 hours (when it was used to run drugs over there, basically). I'm not too surprised the folks who used it then didn't keep logbooks, to be honest.

I presume the title search done by the bank who will finance the purchase will bring up any funkiness around that, but maybe I'm wrong.

So, seeing as none of this worries me per se - heck, I like the bit of colorful history - and the plane is properly registered here, has a clean title, passes inspection and is otherwise in good condition - and I aim to keep it for about five years or so before upgrading to something bigger and better (well, faster) - is 20% off what AOPA vref says it should be worth reasonable?
 
onwards said:
It's a Cherokee 6.

I found out more about its history. Early in life it was used in a criminal operation, discovered and confiscated by a foreign govt and then eventually resold in the US, where it went through all the formal procedures of getting it - not sure what the right term is, but US-worthy? I have run all the online inquiries I could against various tools (like the FAA online ones and so on) and it all seems to check out. Documentation of all of this is available, too, the only thing missing are those logbooks for the first 1000 hours (when it was used to run drugs over there, basically). I'm not too surprised the folks who used it then didn't keep logbooks, to be honest.

I presume the title search done by the bank who will finance the purchase will bring up any funkiness around that, but maybe I'm wrong.

So, seeing as none of this worries me per se - heck, I like the bit of colorful history - and the plane is properly registered here, has a clean title, passes inspection and is otherwise in good condition - and I aim to keep it for about five years or so before upgrading to something bigger and better (well, faster) - is 20% off what AOPA vref says it should be worth reasonable?
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I don't know? What's Vref say its worth compared to the plane without the deduct? Let me put it this way, if I could use it as a 20% bargaining chip, that's cool, but I wouldn't walk away and buy a lesser condition aircraft with full logs for the same money instead. In the course of 5 years a bit of condition difference can cost you a lot more than the 20%, besides, 10% would be more appropriate. Again, I wouldn't walk if he didn't want to bust at all because it has no cost or effect on my operation of the aircraft, and that is why I buy aircraft, to operate them, not to bank resale value.
 
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If its prior criminal history involved smuggling, I imagine that CBP, ICE & DEA already
know about it ... and that the buyer will run a somewhat higher risk of LE encounters.

Yeah, it was a different owner/country. Yeah, it was a different tail number. Unless
S/N has changed, expect increased [cough] random/ad-hoc scrutiny.
 
Henning said:
I don't know? What's Vref say its worth compared to the plane without the deduct? Let me put it this way, if I could use it as a 20% bargaining chip, that's cool, but I wouldn't walk away and buy a lesser condition aircraft with full logs for the same money instead. In the course of 5 years a bit of condition difference can cost you a lot more than the 20%, besides, 10% would be more appropriate. Again, I wouldn't walk if he didn't want to bust at all because it has no cost or effect on my operation of the aircraft, and that is why I buy aircraft, to operate them, not to bank resale value.
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Thanks Henning, that's pretty helpful, because if I understand what you're saying, it really isn't that big a deal. I already HAVE the 20% baked in, it's more along the lines of whether it should be sufficient. Since I never bought a plane before, I don't know what to look for.

Resale value does matter, of course, but only to a degree. Just like in any other transaction of a motor vehicle, I don't expect to recoup what I pay, but I also don't want to be stuck with something that cannot be resold, just because I'm the only one who would consider buying it in the first place on account of being inexperienced. Hence my questions.

Next up - finding a local mechanic to do the prebuy.
 
rainsux said:
If its prior criminal history involved smuggling, I imagine that CBP, ICE & DEA already
know about it ... and that the buyer will run a somewhat higher risk of LE encounters.

Yeah, it was a different owner/country. Yeah, it was a different tail number. Unless
S/N has changed, expect increased [cough] random/ad-hoc scrutiny.
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Thank you. What does that mean, though? in practice?
 
If this is the 6 from Mexico, it's got doubler "diamond" patches on the wings, usually from stress from turb or operating off of rough strips. Not saying it's a bad deal, just do a real good inspection by someone with good eyes.
 
The fact that you're asking answers your own question. Any future buyers from you will ask that question, and it will devalue what you can get. If you like the plane and can get a good discount, go for it. But anyone who says says it's not worth less without ALL logs is wrong.
 
RichNY said:
If this is the 6 from Mexico, it's got doubler "diamond" patches on the wings, usually from stress from turb or operating off of rough strips. Not saying it's a bad deal, just do a real good inspection by someone with good eyes.
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Yes, it's that one. Sent you a PM.

As to the diamond patches - I did a bit of research on Cherokees when I started looking for sixes, and this came up as a pretty common issue on them, something to do with the design of the wing. From what I could gather, diamond patches are a way to fix a problem in a good way without having to reskin the wing, which is a lot more expensive, and thus occurs quite frequently. Am I wrong?
 
onwards said:
Yes, it's that one. Sent you a PM.

As to the diamond patches - I did a bit of research on Cherokees when I started looking for sixes, and this came up as a pretty common issue on them, something to do with the design of the wing. From what I could gather, diamond patches are a way to fix a problem in a good way without having to reskin the wing, which is a lot more expensive, and thus occurs quite frequently. Am I wrong?
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Nope, you are correct. Not saying that it's a 'non-issue' to be dismissed, but it isn't any sort of definitive sign of abuse or neglect. You'll find many sixes with them in all ranges of condition.
 
Old Geek said:
If the logs are missing you might want to order the airplane information CD from the FAA. Doing that would have saved my brother-in-law a world of hurt when he bought his plane.
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what would the CD tell you when the aircraft was out of country for the first 1000 hours?
 
Onwards,

Are you trying to step on every possible land mine while trying to buy your first plane? :eek:
 
rpadula said:
Onwards,

Are you trying to step on every possible land mine while trying to buy your first plane? :eek:
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Pretty much. One thing I have found repeatedly is that by making choices that are a bit off-center, I get much better results. I just try to minimize the effects of the occasional setback.

In this case, I am trying to find out if a certain buffer is sufficient to overcome such potential setbacks. If this is the case, then it puts me in a win-win kinda situation; worst that happens, I lose the buffer.
 
onwards said:
Pretty much. One thing I have found repeatedly is that by making choices that are a bit off-center, I get much better results. I just try to minimize the effects of the occasional setback.
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The results here of not following herd mentality are not quite the same...:rofl::rofl::rofl:

If the airframe is in good condition and you have a good deal with regards to engine time and avionics I don't see any problem here. If you have 20% built into the deal on top of today's market, I'd think you have more than enough to cover any realistic down line loss.
 
When I was in the market for my first plane there were some with incomplete logs that caught my eye, too. Not a deal breaker by itself, but certainly a negative.

Like you, I intend to upgrade in 5-ish years (basically, when my house is paid off). So buying something that is easily re-sold was a priority. Certain things cause potential buyers, not all of whom are as informed as we are, to immediately turn away. These include very high TTAF, incomplete logs, damage history, beyond TBO engine hours, corrosion, poor paint and poor interior.

As such, I was willing to buy a plane with any ONE of these conditions, but not with multiple big hits to it. There was a 177RG at the field where I trained for sale - needed a new interior but otherwise not bad. That is, until the owner "couldn't find" all of the logs. Scratch that.

I ended up buying a nice 182 that needed a paint job. Now the paint is done and as far as I am concerned it is the perfect plane, at least for this phase of my flying. Further, when the time comes to sell it I am certain that it'll move fairly quickly if I price it right. Lots of "very cheap" planes sit around for months because they scare off so many potential buyers with their rap sheet.

If you buy a cheap plane with multiple items from the "hit list" above then you should really only expect to get part-out/scrap value when you're done with it. If you do somehow sell instead it'll probably take a lot longer than you intend. When you happen upon the right "bigger, better plane" you may not have a lot of time to get your funds together.

Just some thoughts.
 
A lot of cheap planes sit around for decades because they are pieces of s-t, that's why they are cheap, because you can't afford to own a cheap plane unless you are an IA or have one in your pocket.
 
Morne said:
When I was in the market for my first plane there were some with incomplete logs that caught my eye, too. Not a deal breaker by itself, but certainly a negative.

Like you, I intend to upgrade in 5-ish years (basically, when my house is paid off). So buying something that is easily re-sold was a priority. Certain things cause potential buyers, not all of whom are as informed as we are, to immediately turn away. These include very high TTAF, incomplete logs, damage history, beyond TBO engine hours, corrosion, poor paint and poor interior.

As such, I was willing to buy a plane with any ONE of these conditions, but not with multiple big hits to it. There was a 177RG at the field where I trained for sale - needed a new interior but otherwise not bad. That is, until the owner "couldn't find" all of the logs. Scratch that.

I ended up buying a nice 182 that needed a paint job. Now the paint is done and as far as I am concerned it is the perfect plane, at least for this phase of my flying. Further, when the time comes to sell it I am certain that it'll move fairly quickly if I price it right. Lots of "very cheap" planes sit around for months because they scare off so many potential buyers with their rap sheet.

If you buy a cheap plane with multiple items from the "hit list" above then you should really only expect to get part-out/scrap value when you're done with it. If you do somehow sell instead it'll probably take a lot longer than you intend. When you happen upon the right "bigger, better plane" you may not have a lot of time to get your funds together.

Just some thoughts.
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Very good point. The only thing my plane had going against it when I bought it was the panel. The airframe, especially the augmentors, had just received a 2 year very expensive IRAN on a low time (3300hr) airframe by a meticulous craftsman with deep pockets, had new "0" time props without ADs, had 50hrs on one engine and 250 on the other (on engines I like). The paint and interior are in vintage excellent condition, no corrosion and an excellent price tag.
 
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Wiithout the logs, how do you know the first 1,000 hours isn't the first 10,000 hours?
 
Old Geek said:
If the logs are missing you might want to order the airplane information CD from the FAA. Doing that would have saved my brother-in-law a world of hurt when he bought his plane.
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Won't help in this case, since the missing logs are from when the plane was registered in another country.

In any event, the missing logs are mostly old news. If you get a good discount off the "normal" price (20% sounds like a reasonable number), and it's been through the conformity inspection to get re-registered here and then enough annuals to have flown 3000 hour since, a good pre-purchase inspection of the aircraft should be enough. Just remember that whatever discount you negotiate now is likely to be expected when you sell it, too. But if it's a nice enough airplane, that shouldn't be a show-stopper on either end of your ownership.
 
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wabower said:
Wiithout the logs, how do you know the first 1,000 hours isn't the first 10,000 hours?
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I don't. I'm trying to quantify my risk here; seems like it's about the size of the discount I would have to offer the next buyer, which is what I was hoping to hear. What I DID not want to hear was "you run the risk of losing the plane completely" or "you might get sued by the federal government just because" or whatever. $10-$20K is a risk I can handle. The entire plane, not so much. Anything beyond would be ruinous.
 
onwards said:
I don't. I'm trying to quantify my risk here; seems like it's about the size of the discount I would have to offer the next buyer, which is what I was hoping to hear. What I DID not want to hear was "you run the risk of losing the plane completely" or "you might get sued by the federal government just because" or whatever. $10-$20K is a risk I can handle. The entire plane, not so much. Anything beyond would be ruinous.
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What's your sense of value loss? You seem to have a pretty good handle on the issues. If an identical airplane were sitting next to it with full documentation, how much would that be worth to you?
 
wabower said:
What's your sense of value loss? You seem to have a pretty good handle on the issues. If an identical airplane were sitting next to it with full documentation, how much would that be worth to you?
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I can answer that, because I have made such an offer too (still being considered). About $12K more. But it's more because I like a couple things about the other plane that aren't available on this one (such as working AC - that sounds sooooo nice) than about the missing logs.
 
onwards said:
Thank you. What does that mean, though? in practice?
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It means that you are at increased risk of being greeted by LE upon landing. Sometimes it is low-key. Sometimes you may get the full John and Martha greeting ( guns, cuffs, etc).

Once an airframe is on the list, it never seems to be dropped. An acquaintance bought an A36 with a smuggling history, unknown to him at the time. Inspite of having a security clearance an being qualified by NASA to fly their vertically launched gliders, LE had a seemingly perpetual interest (in the A36, not the rocket-launched gliders).
 
rainsux said:
It means that you are at increased risk of being greeted by LE upon landing. Sometimes it is low-key. Sometimes you may get the full John and Martha greeting ( guns, cuffs, etc).

Once an airframe is on the list, it never seems to be dropped. An acquaintance bought an A36 with a smuggling history, unknown to him at the time. Inspite of having a security clearance an being qualified by NASA to fly their vertically launched gliders, LE had a seemingly perpetual interest (in the A36, not the rocket-launched gliders).
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Interesting. I mean, sounds like it could be fun for once or twice, but could get old after that. How often does your friend get stopped? yes, this WOULD be a deal killer.

So from what I understand, the drug op took place within Mexico borders back in the 1970's, not inside the US. Would this apply as well?
 
Henning said:
That is the key question isn't it?
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And hence, the price/value reduction question. From everything I know to this point I am fairly comfortable with the 1000 hours being the right number, but there is of course no proving it.
 
wabower said:
Wiithout the logs, how do you know the first 1,000 hours isn't the first 10,000 hours?
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He could estimate worst case; there are only so many hours in a year. Even for a drug-running plane, only so many hours it is likely able to fly in a year. So one should be able to put a realistic estimate on the upper range. Some Google searching suggests that 600 hours/year may be a reasonable upper limit. Likely less.

How many years was it being used for illegal activity?
 
Henning said:
That is the key question isn't it?
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What dummy do you know that can't tell a 10,000 hour aircraft from a 4000 hour aircraft, with out looking at the logs?
 
rainsux said:
It means that you are at increased risk of being greeted by LE upon landing. Sometimes it is low-key. Sometimes you may get the full John and Martha greeting ( guns, cuffs, etc).

Once an airframe is on the list, it never seems to be dropped. An acquaintance bought an A36 with a smuggling history, unknown to him at the time. Inspite of having a security clearance an being qualified by NASA to fly their vertically launched gliders, LE had a seemingly perpetual interest (in the A36, not the rocket-launched gliders).
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When we traded our 182 to Van Bortel back in 1992, we kept our N number, they put a number on it that was right for the period of production. Long story short, the new owners were flying in Texas, when they landed, all he'll broke loose. Black helicopter, police cars, machine guns the whole bit! :hairraise: it seems the number they picked, one that had never been used, was being used by smugglers!:eek: needless to say they changed the N number in short
order!:D
 
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