Current Aircraft Market Prices

AnthonyS1

AnthonyS1

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AnthonyS1
While my partner and I are narrowing the search for an F33 I couldn't help but notice a few topics and posts talking about how we are currently at "the top" of the market for aircraft pricing. I'm guessing that means that right now isnt really a buyer's market. With the stock market making huge declines in the last month or so and possibly staying low for a while, does that mean we could see aircraft prices start to come down and it turn into a bit of a seller's market??? What is the major determining factor that drives the price of aircraft?? Would it make sense to wait a couple months before putting in offers??
 
Is the market not named for whom it favors?
Ie low prices = buyer's market?
In any case, if you have the cash and want an airplane, who can wait? I couldn't!
 
AnthonyS1 said:
Hmm well that's interesting. Hopefully there will still even be a market for these things if we decide to sell in 10 years.
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Considering how few new airplanes are made each year, I'd say that a market should exist then.
 
AnthonyS1 said:
While my partner and I are narrowing the search for an F33 I couldn't help but notice a few topics and posts talking about how we are currently at "the top" of the market for aircraft pricing. I'm guessing that means that right now isnt really a buyer's market. With the stock market making huge declines in the last month or so and possibly staying low for a while, does that mean we could see aircraft prices start to come down and it turn into a bit of a seller's market??? What is the major determining factor that drives the price of aircraft?? Would it make sense to wait a couple months before putting in offers??
Click to expand...

It's not really the stock market that drives light GA airplane prices. Airplanes for pleasure are a discretionary expenditure. Disposable income, perceived future income security and the expected ongoing cost to operate tend to be greater drivers of the market price for used planes. The one exception is anything suitable for ab-initio and commercial training (e.g 172s, Seminoles, etc.) has been driven upward by that increasing commercially driven demand.

The chart in post #2 is instructive. Bonanza prices started falling as fuel prices started becoming onerous, then fell off a cliff during the 08/09 financial crisis. Here's a chart of crude oil during that decade. I am not sure we will ever see crude oil sustainably below $40 again.

upload_2018-12-24_18-15-31.png



AnthonyS1 said:
Hmm well that's interesting. Hopefully there will still even be a market for these things if we decide to sell in 10 years.
Click to expand...

There's ALWAYS a market...at some price. But be careful what you expect. We already have examples of older airplanes that are worth more parted out than as flying specimens.
 
GRG55 said:
It's not really the stock market that drives light GA airplane prices. Airplanes for pleasure are a discretionary expenditure. Disposable income, perceived future income security and the expected ongoing cost to operate tend to be greater drivers of the market price for used planes. The one exception is anything suitable for ab-initio and commercial training (e.g 172s, Seminoles, etc.) has been driven upward by that increasing commercially driven demand.

The chart in post #2 is instructive. Bonanza prices started falling as fuel prices started becoming onerous, then fell off a cliff during the 08/09 financial crisis. Here's a chart of crude oil during that decade. I am not sure we will ever see crude oil sustainably below $40 again.

View attachment 70226





There's ALWAYS a market...at some price. But be careful what you expect. We already have examples of older airplanes that are worth more parted out than as flying specimens.
Click to expand...
There are examples of twins which are not even worth the raw metal prices, let alone as parts.
Considering the number of planes, the number of owners and general trend of the market this is the long term trend.

Sent from my SM-J737T using Tapatalk
 
tspear said:
There are examples of twins which are not even worth the raw metal prices, let alone as parts.
Considering the number of planes, the number of owners and general trend of the market this is the long term trend.
Click to expand...

:yeahthat:

Personal aviation is going up market; that trend is also unlikely to change and will certainly play heavily into the future value of certain types of older and aging private aircraft.

Thirty years ago my home airport had three flight schools (Cessna, Piper and Grumman) and the vast majority of the students were ab-initio private pilot candidates. There wasn't a single jet based there and the only turbines were commercial helicopters.

Today there are still three flight schools but the overwhelming majority (90+% at our FTU) of the students are pursuing commercial status leading to professional careers. The main runway has been lengthened, there are a number of private, personal jets flown by the owners (Citations & Phenoms), all manner of private turboprops (Meridians, TBMs and one PC-12) and the number of active Cirrus and pressurized Malibu piston singles now handily outnumbers the declining Bonanza movements. In 2018 alone three friends of mine, each of whom owned Comanches, sold their planes and stopped flying completely. The old, small T-hangars have been torn down and replaced with 50 ft to 65 ft wide bays deep enough to house the expensive aluminum and plastic.

We are fortunate to still be able to pursue this avocation, but between the costs and the regulations I think we are in the final chapters of it.
 
GRG55 said:
There's ALWAYS a market...at some price. But be careful what you expect. We already have examples of older airplanes that are worth more parted out than as flying specimens.
Click to expand...
I think that fit's just about anything. "sum of parts worth more than the whole."
 
GRG55 said:
:yeahthat:

Personal aviation is going up market; that trend is also unlikely to change and will certainly play heavily into the future value of certain types of older and aging private aircraft.

Thirty years ago my home airport had three flight schools (Cessna, Piper and Grumman) and the vast majority of the students were ab-initio private pilot candidates. There wasn't a single jet based there and the only turbines were commercial helicopters.

Today there are still three flight schools but the overwhelming majority (90+% at our FTU) of the students are pursuing commercial status leading to professional careers. The main runway has been lengthened, there are a number of private, personal jets flown by the owners (Citations & Phenoms), all manner of private turboprops (Meridians, TBMs and one PC-12) and the number of active Cirrus and pressurized Malibu piston singles now handily outnumbers the declining Bonanza movements. In 2018 alone three friends of mine, each of whom owned Comanches, sold their planes and stopped flying completely. The old, small T-hangars have been torn down and replaced with 50 ft to 65 ft wide bays deep enough to house the expensive aluminum and plastic.

We are fortunate to still be able to pursue this avocation, but between the costs and the regulations I think we are in the final chapters of it.
Click to expand...

This last paragraph is very sad. I really hope that's not the case. It would really be a shame for aviation to become financially completely out of reach for middle/ upper middle class people.
 
Not sure who got into aviation with the idea of I hope I can make my money back. I got into aviation because I always wanted to and I had a bunch of disposable income that I could afford to lose.

At anytime anyone of us airplane owners can be hit with a $30-50k bill without warning. For some that is more than their plane is worth. For almost all of us that would put us so far upside down we would never recover what we spent when we sell.

Best advice I was given when I decided to pursue it was to only do it with money you could afford to burn for warmth if needed.
 
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