Right now there is a lot talk about mortality rates but I've been wondering more about the infection rates. You see statements here (POA) and elsewhere that sooner or later we'll all get it. But in the short term of 5 months what is a realistic estimate? First some numbers as of today (best I can find). China: Population = 1.386 billion, 80,000 infected Italy: Population = 60 million, 18,000 infected USA: Population = 327 million, 2000 infected Regarding China: Lets say they really isolated things effectively w/r to their large population. Lets say they limited the exposure to just 200million of their total population (I'm being generous I think). That would mean within the smaller group that could have been infected just 0.04% of people were getting infected. That is just 4 people per 10,000 in about 5 months. Regarding Italy: Lets say they allowed their entire nation to be exposed which seems to be the case. That would be just 3 people per 10,000 have been getting infected. When time matched to the China exposure time their number might be 4 or 5 people per 10,000. Not lets take a leap here and say the actual number of infections is 10x what has been official tested and confirmed (for all countries). Then that already smal sample of people would have a higher rate of 4 per 1,000 people. And Italy would maybe be as high as 5 per thousand people. Maybe I am off on my ratio of actual infections to verified infections - no clue but 10x (an order of magnitude) seems to be a safe start. So that means here in the US, over the next 4-5 months if we reacted the way Italy did we might have 5 infections per 1000 people. Or that would be 1,500,000 total infections. If its 10:1 then we we would have 150,000 known infections be tallied up on the nice. Twice that of China after the same time exposure time! So something about the numbers and hysteria just does not add up??? Even with a 10x undereporting margin factored in it is showing us exceeding China's infection rate pretty significantly. Doesn't make sense?