Corona Virus Numbers???

Discussion in 'Hangar Talk' started by Sinistar, Mar 13, 2020.

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  1. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    Right now there is a lot talk about mortality rates but I've been wondering more about the infection rates. You see statements here (POA) and elsewhere that sooner or later we'll all get it. But in the short term of 5 months what is a realistic estimate? First some numbers as of today (best I can find).

    China: Population = 1.386 billion, 80,000 infected
    Italy: Population = 60 million, 18,000 infected
    USA: Population = 327 million, 2000 infected

    Regarding China: Lets say they really isolated things effectively w/r to their large population. Lets say they limited the exposure to just 200million of their total population (I'm being generous I think). That would mean within the smaller group that could have been infected just 0.04% of people were getting infected. That is just 4 people per 10,000 in about 5 months.

    Regarding Italy: Lets say they allowed their entire nation to be exposed which seems to be the case. That would be just 3 people per 10,000 have been getting infected. When time matched to the China exposure time their number might be 4 or 5 people per 10,000.

    Not lets take a leap here and say the actual number of infections is 10x what has been official tested and confirmed (for all countries). Then that already smal sample of people would have a higher rate of 4 per 1,000 people. And Italy would maybe be as high as 5 per thousand people.

    Maybe I am off on my ratio of actual infections to verified infections - no clue but 10x (an order of magnitude) seems to be a safe start.

    So that means here in the US, over the next 4-5 months if we reacted the way Italy did we might have 5 infections per 1000 people. Or that would be 1,500,000 total infections. If its 10:1 then we we would have 150,000 known infections be tallied up on the nice. Twice that of China after the same time exposure time!

    So something about the numbers and hysteria just does not add up??? Even with a 10x undereporting margin factored in it is showing us exceeding China's infection rate pretty significantly. Doesn't make sense?
     
  2. write-stuff

    write-stuff En-Route

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    So do nothing and let it play out? Not an experiment I'd want to participate in.
     
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  3. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

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    In the end that might be exactly what happens if there cannot be a vaccine for it.
     
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  4. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    Sorry, not trying to imply doing nothing. Actually, if we do what we are already planning - don't shake hands, cover coughs, self quarantine etc these will be our numbers. But it just doesn't seem like we will see 100% infection rate within another 3-4 months - hysteria. More like 3...5 people per 1000 with barely one of those being officially tested and reported.
     
  5. write-stuff

    write-stuff En-Route

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    Efforts at "social distancing" is not nothing, but agreed, it's not much either. We might get lucky with some new or repurposed anti-virals, but a vaccine is still a year away.
     
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  6. write-stuff

    write-stuff En-Route

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    Roger, Sinistar. But I don't think anyone is suggesting a 100% infection rate. In fact I haven't heard anyone suggest numbers like that.
     
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  7. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    Much of what is going on sounds like the plot of a Michael Crichton novel.
     
  8. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    Once in while you see things like "Eventually we will all have it". Or some people seem to think if just one case gets into the city we'll all turn into zombies. Add in TP supplies being wiped out and I get the sense there is a notable part of population that thinks it is a much higher infection rate that what it will really be.

    Says all this from me who just traveled to Boston for work and is now serving a self-imposed 5 day quarantine from work. Not complaining though as my company is taking it seriously and treating all of us darned good.
     
  9. 455 Bravo Uniform

    455 Bravo Uniform En-Route

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    Do not presume that the numbers which are the basis of your calcs are correct. Best we can go by, but for different reasons may be erroneous.
     
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  10. Rcmutz

    Rcmutz Line Up and Wait

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    China, which is run by a communist dictatorship and now is officially blaming the U.S is probably underestimating those infected.
     
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  11. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    I am sure they are wrong. Curious what do you think, dare to hazard a guess?
     
  12. Sluggo63

    Sluggo63 Line Up and Wait

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  13. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    By more than 10x?
     
  14. 455 Bravo Uniform

    455 Bravo Uniform En-Route

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    No, I don’t dare, wouldn’t know where to start. At least you have a method. I’m just saying that based on a country’s way of testing and divulging info, that the data may be wrong.
     
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  15. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    I get the exponential part...but China's numbers also followed that same curve and ended up where they are now. Which by the way has now has almost leveled off. So if we are following their same curve our rates will also level off roughly correlated to when theirs did. I would guess our curve to be worst case, more like Italy or Iran as the Chinese can force rapid policies and isolation.
     
  16. luvflyin

    luvflyin Final Approach

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    The Andromeda Strain. Stephen King dabbled with Virus's in The Stand. Some light reading if you have to hunker down and get bored.
     
  17. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    Here's China's latest trajectory (if we can trust their reporting)
    ChinaCorona.png
     
  18. Sinistar

    Sinistar En-Route

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    I liked the Andromeda Strain movie - guessing the book was even better?
     
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  19. asicer

    asicer En-Route

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    Judging by what we're seeing so far, I think you have the order reversed. First we turn into TP hoarding zombies, then we get COVID-19.
     
  20. write-stuff

    write-stuff En-Route

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    I vaguely remember seeing the movie. But I distinctly remember the book as being awesome. I believe that was the book the got him to give up on medicine.

    In terms of book vs. movie, my opinion is that Jurassic Park was massively better in book form.
     
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  21. Tantalum

    Tantalum Final Approach

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    No. I would also take China's reported figure with a modicum of caution
     
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  22. AggieMike88

    AggieMike88 Touchdown! Greaser!

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    The original "I don't know it all" of aviation.
    The movie is worth seeing.
     
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  23. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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  24. Sluggo63

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    Did you watch the clip? He addresses the level out. Basically two things will help the level out. One being quarantined since you can't spread it any more which is tied to the second thing. Once more and more of the population get infected, there are less "well" people to infect, so the curve levels out.

    China quarantined or otherwise put travel/movement restrictions on close to 750,000,000 people. I don't know if that's going to be possible here in the lnd of the free. I guess time will tell.
     
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  25. Sluggo63

    Sluggo63 Line Up and Wait

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    Lol. Come on man, you're smarter than that. Take the tin foil off and listen to the experts. This virus did not come from the Wuhan lab.

    Here you go. This guy is not a quack, nor is he a political shill. Here's what he has to say about the "manufactured virus."

     
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  26. JGoodish

    JGoodish Cleared for Takeoff

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    I am struck by the number of “experts”
    who are either outright or through implied messaging stating that the public should have a sense of panic about this virus. Pilots, as with other professionals in high-risk occupations, should know that panic is perhaps the worst response you can have to an emergency. Furthermore, it appears that much of the draconian response to date has been based on assumptions and projections rather than the realities of actual data, and many of those assumptions or projections appear to neglect the consideration of source context and applicability to our environment here in the U.S.

    Based on the data that exists at the moment, and even assuming it’s under-reporting (which I think is likely, especially for infection rate), I’m still having a problem understanding why I should be concerned about acquiring this virus. I don’t *want* to acquire it, but I don’t want to acquire any virus. However, the reported mortality rate is quite low, and the mortality rate is likely even lower if you consider the high likelihood that infections are being grossly undercounted. If, say, tens or hundreds of thousands of people in the country are infected but don’t know it, it seems that is a statement in itself about the risks of acquiring it. In addition, the virus appears to present the greatest risk to the same group who is always at greatest risk; if you are not in that group, it appears that you do not share that same risk.

    As Americans, we are supposed to be a nation of individuals, not a collective society. We are supposed to value our individual rights and freedoms that so many fought and died to protect. Yet, it seems that we will surrender them in an instant if we’re told that we’re all at risk of death. That might be understandable if the data showed that a majority or even plurality of the population was at risk of death, but that is not what the current data appear to show.

    With all of that being said, I don’t trust the integrity of China’s data at all, but at the same time I don’t think that China could continue to conceal mass casualties from this virus for very long. I may be underestimating China’s ability to make people “disappear,” but I suspect that it’s much harder to do on a large scale in modern China, especially when the subjects are infected with a highly-communicable disease.
     
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  27. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Well that’s about the coincidence of the century then

    Which experts BTW, the ones who have nothing to do with that lab, or the chinese state media talking about if their state virus lab is responsible for one of the worst pandemics in recent history?

    I mean china would never lie


    While Ebright refuted several of conspiracy theories regarding the WIV, he told BBC China that this did not represent the possibility of the virus being "completely ruled out" from entering the population due to a laboratory accident.”
     
  28. Sluggo63

    Sluggo63 Line Up and Wait

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    James: China can't be trusted.

    Also James: Here's this article from China to back up my claims.
     
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  29. JonH

    JonH Pre-takeoff checklist

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    It would be a crazy world if we knew the number of cases in real-time. We'd all be IoT devices, or whatever that would have been in 100 years. So close... almost made it. *cough cough*
     
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  30. Zeldman

    Zeldman Touchdown! Greaser!

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    I am afraid that with less and less folks traveling by airlines means less planes are flying, which means the chem-trails that are supposed to protect us are not being distributed as much....
     
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  31. Rgbeard

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    Mexico is holding at twelve cases, and zero in the state of Baja California.

    And now Mex is considering closing the border with the USA. Kinda fun to see the roles reversed.
     
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  32. Jim K

    Jim K Pre-takeoff checklist

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    Mexico only has 12 cases of Corona?! No wonder trump declared an emergency
     
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  33. tspear

    tspear Pattern Altitude PoA Supporter

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    The case fatality rate in China was running around 4%; South Korea about 0.5%, Italy 7%. This is using published numbers, last I looked.
    South Korea has about four times the hospital bed capacity as the USA. Italy and China have over double our hospital capacity.

    Ignorance is bliss. :)

    However. with that said. If we had reacted correctly or correct course enough; then you can expect people to say. We over reacted, see it was a whole lot of nothing burger.

    Tim
     
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  34. James331

    James331 Ejection Handle Pulled

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    Ether way you skin the car or eat the dog, it came from china, it came from a town in china that just happens to have the only level IV virus lab, and it just happened as china was having issues with their peasants getting all worked up again, and it happened right before the US election with a president less than friendly to china.

    I’ll give you some may well be, and likely is, just coincidence, but all of it...well if you believe that I bet salesmen love you.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2020
  35. Van Johnston

    Van Johnston Cleared for Takeoff

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    I recommend watching the 2011 movie Contagion also. Much more closely parallels what is going on now.
     
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  36. JGoodish

    JGoodish Cleared for Takeoff

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    I’m not exactly sure what your largely nonsensical reply was meant to suggest, but an argument that a bed-per-citizen stat will correlate to mortality rate makes assumptions of relevance that aren’t easy to validate in current infection/mortality data. With Italy and China in particular, there are other factors which are more easily substantiated with the data, such as overall respiratory health of the population, median population age, and systemic problems with the quality of health care provided (factors in both China and Italy).
     
  37. KSCessnaDriver

    KSCessnaDriver Pattern Altitude

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    Those numbers only mean something if every person who has COVID-19 is tested and diagnosed. Which is not happening, other than maybe in South Korea.
     
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  38. JGoodish

    JGoodish Cleared for Takeoff

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    Just to be clear regarding my posts: I am
    Not arguing that I’m right and the doomsayers are wrong, but when you start throwing out stats like “beds per person” without both explaining the relevance AND citing data which suggests that the stat is material to the argument, it ends up being another red herring.

    Last I saw, the WHO stats were showing that just over 80% of confirmed cases exhibited only mild symptoms. It’s probably a good risk to say that this number is higher based on unidentified cases. I would assume that there may be unidentified cases which are fatal also, but there doesn’t seem to be a run on hospitals at this point. So I’m trying to get a more solid basis for the hysteria.
     
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  39. Ryanb

    Ryanb Touchdown! Greaser! PoA Supporter

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    I hear the Modelo-virus is even stronger than the Corona virus. Not sure what it’s like with lime in it though.
     
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  40. Greg Bockelman

    Greg Bockelman Administrator Management Council Member

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    There IS no basis for the hysteria.

    This is just my opinion but I think this is a media manufactured “crisis”. If it weren’t for the media hyping it, I think it would be a ho hum event. And then the politicians are piling on.

    I am not much in to conspiracies, but...
     
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