Cessna P210 down near San Diego 11/15/2023

donjohnston

donjohnston

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Sounds like IMC, went missed, and ran out of fuel. Not much news yet.

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N1400 Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Track N1400 flight from Buchanan Fld to Torrey Pines
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A couple things that struck me (other than the low fuel state):

He never really got established on the localizer. The ADS-B shows this, but it was verified by the controller that he was south of course the entire time. He remained on a direct course to the airport after that and was converging with the localizer, but never got back on it before overflying the airport.

That was a lot of keying up the runway lights (PCL) on approach frequency. You’d have a much better time getting those on CTAF.

I’m not sure if he ran out of fuel and couldn’t expedite the climb, but once you hit 1100 on the missed (which he was at or near) it’s a climbing left turn on a 270 to 3000’.

I’m getting a behind the aircraft vibe from some of this.

The latest METAR for KMYF was issued around the beginning of his approach:

KMYF 160453Z 03004KT 3SM -RA BR BKN005 BKN012 OVC017 16/14 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP160 P0005 T01560139
 
Was this unforeseen weather, or did this pilot forget the 1-2-3 rule in addition to forgetting his plane's endurance profile?
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
1-2-3 rule?
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myecflight.com

IFR Alternates | What you should consider? | § 91.169

Whether you're going missed off an approach at your destination or just diverting early, you're not required to fly to your filed alternate. Filing an alternate on your IFR flight plan is for planning purposes only, and once you're airborne, you can change your alternate if you need to.
myecflight.com myecflight.com

1 hour before, 1 hour after, 2000 AGL and 3SM = Alternate required (and added to your fuel calcs)

Looks like they're calling it the 3-2-1 rule now.. so either I'm dyslexic or the pilot acronym fashions have moved past me :D
 
1-3-2 in TAF sequence :cool:

1 hour before and after, 3 SM vis, 2k ft cigs
 
Wait a minute... CCR to MYF is less than 400nm. How fast is a P210? I assumed high 100/low 200kt? How did that take 4 hours??
 
schmookeeg said:
Wait a minute... CCR to MYF is less than 400nm. How fast is a P210? I assumed high 100/low 200kt? How did that take 4 hours??
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The original flight plan was to French Valley, so Gibbs was likely an alternate. The plan basically followed the valley, over the Tehachapis direct to Palmdale, but in actuality he ended up heading toward and getting fairly close to Lake Hughes before cutting east, so that added miles. Looks like an attempted approach at French Valley before heading to Gibbs. FlightAware says 527nm flown.

He filed at 190kts true, but was getting about 140-160GS, so maybe strong southerlies aloft?
 
schmookeeg said:
Was this unforeseen weather, or did this pilot forget the 1-2-3 rule in addition to forgetting his plane's endurance profile?
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The weather around here was well known for a good week ahead of time! Seems like rusty or outright poor planning. Some people take 'sunny San Diego' for granted and get complacent with weather planning around here..

Flying Keys said:
The original flight plan was to French Valley, so Gibbs was likely an alternate. The plan basically followed the valley, over the Tehachapis direct to Palmdale, but in actuality he ended up heading toward and getting fairly close to Lake Hughes before cutting east, so that added miles. Looks like an attempted approach at French Valley before heading to Gibbs. FlightAware says 527nm flown.

He filed at 190kts true, but was getting about 140-160GS, so maybe strong southerlies aloft?
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The approach to F70 is pretty easy.. if you fumble that I doubt you'll have better luck (or better wx!) at MYF, CRQ, or SEE..
 
schmookeeg said:
Yeah if I can't get into French Valley, I'm running deeper into the desert, not down to the coast.

Shame. You'd think after a few hours with 50kt in the face, Bakersfield might have looked a good spot to sit and reconsider your choices.
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As he was leaving the Central Valley, everything in SoCal was crap with lots of heavy rain. Very low ceilings and 4-6 miles viz.

At the time of the approach into F70, everything from SDM to CNO was still solid IFR. Maybe some improvement to MVFR in the Empire, over to PSP, and back toward LAX, but nothing great. SD was not better. The best bet might at the time he went missed the first time may have been Thermal. The bulk of the heavy rain had moved off to within 20nm of the Colorado up to Vegas and moving NE.

An hour later (closer to the crash time) most everywhere was MVFR or better except San Diego, which was still solid IFR. It was real hit and miss with actual precip and instability moving through (versus the typical marine layer on the coast or tule fog inland this time of year).

BFL was 7sm or better and ceilings around 10k the whole time. I like your idea.
 
What’s the hourly range on a p210. Long time to be in a plane, dark and IMC. If never got on the LOC perhaps never really activated the approach?
 
benyflyguy said:
What’s the hourly range on a p210. Long time to be in a plane, dark and IMC. If never got on the LOC perhaps never really activated the approach?
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The model I've flown burned around 20 GPH at 190 kts, and had a 95 gallon fuel capacity.
 
benyflyguy said:
What’s the hourly range on a p210. Long time to be in a plane, dark and IMC. If never got on the LOC perhaps never really activated the approach?
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I agree, I’d be pretty tired after flying that long in that mess. ILS should be green needles so there’s nothing to activate there, procedure-wise, though he could have had it loaded as an overlay and left it in GPS mode.
 
My p210 is 90 gallon tank with 87 useable. Fuel burn at cruise is usually 17.5-18.5 gph. Can be easily leaned depending upon power setttings down to 15-16gph. Range is around 600nm. These are numbers for normal without tip tanks.
 
Anthem said:
My p210 is 90 gallon tank with 87 useable. Fuel burn at cruise is usually 17.5-18.5 gph. Can be easily leaned depending upon power setttings down to 15-16gph. Range is around 600nm. These are numbers for normal without tip tanks.
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I think we need to look at endurance more closely than range for this accident. Your figures allow for 4.7 to 5.4 hours endurance, given full usable fuel and proper leaning techniques (another variable is altitude flown).

This accident flight ran out of fuel right around the 4-hour mark. The flight plan estimated enroute was 2:10 plus the benefit of the doubt that he planned an alternate and a 45 minute reserve on top of that. So if he achieved your gph number range, that means he departed with anywhere from 60 to 75 gallons useable. Or he could have been full fuel, and wasn’t getting the ff numbers for whatever reason. Suffice it to say, we know his endurance was 4 hours because of the outcome. IIRC, tabs on a standard 210 are 64 gallons, correct? Kind of right in the range that would give you ~4 hours endurance.

But either way, a nasty headwind, a fairly low cruise altitude (resulting in a lower cruise TAS and/or higher fuel burn), some serious diversions around weather, two approaches, more diversion, and flying around at an even lower altitude shot that initial great circle max range right out from under him.
 
I think you should use the 18.5 gph as that’s rich of peak. Running lower LOP assumes gamis and he running lop during the flight. Many p210 owners don’t.
 
Juan Browne (Blancolirio) reported that the pilot had thousands of hours, yet his flying was abysmal. I have to wonder if the toxicology report will come up with CO or some other impairment.
 
News article update. article It will be interesting to see what the NTSB determines. A pilot friend heard him flying and thought someone is lost in the clouds then when the engine sound faded he thought that the flight was heading east for an approach, not out of fuel. Sad.
 
Kristin said:
Juan Browne (Blancolirio) reported that the pilot had thousands of hours, yet his flying was abysmal. I have to wonder if the toxicology report will come up with CO or some other impairment.
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If nothing else, yet another lesson that flight hours are not a sufficient proxy for proficiency. Alternatives abound, but that's a whole other thread.
(edit for typo)
 
Kristin said:
Juan Browne (Blancolirio) reported that the pilot had thousands of hours, yet his flying was abysmal.
Click to expand...

According to the pilot's website, he holds Airline Transport Pilot License from the US Federal Aviation Administration, with type rating certifications in various Corporate / Business Jets and a variety of large transport category aircraft including DC-3, DC-9, DC-10, B-727, B-737, and B-747 airliners. He also holds Flight Engineer (turbo Jet), Flight Instructor, and Instrument Flight Instructor certifications from the FAA.
 
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