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Discussion in 'Flight Following' started by Clip4, Mar 11, 2019.
In China and Indonesia. Has to be the plane and not improperly trained pilots.
Thinking this will be a s*#t storm
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Or is it the planes Boeing is completing in China?
There are billions of dollars worth of these planes in service; it will be interesting to see how quickly a move is made to ground them all.
All 737’s or just the MAX 8’s?
I’m assuming the latter.
Might want to edit the title than.
I suspect that a political dig is part of the China grounding.
It HAS to be? Just wondering what your proof is, and why haven't any US airlines grounded their aircraft if there is conclusive evidence it is an aircraft issue and not a crew issue?
I think that prior post was sarcastic.
The airlines haven't grounded the "MAX 8" anywhere. It's been the aviation authorities in China and Indonesia that have done so, and if it is deemed necessary, it will be the FAA to do so here.
Boeing's stock is crashing faster than the airplanes.
..this is the thing. I forewarn all snowflakes and the easily offended reading this whole post.. but as far as I know these planes are not FBW (in the sense that Airbus are).. IE, there's a physical connection from yoke to flight control surfaces. So.. if the plane starts trimming away on you, or stick pushing you.. then whatever happened to just FLY THE DAMN plane? Pull the CB, figure out what's happening, and get 'er done. Plus, I'm sorry, but you tend to see inane accidents coming from certain countries outside the US
-remember the turboprop where the pilots secured the wrong engine? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TransAsia_Airways_Flight_235
-Lion Air seems to have an issue keeping planes in the air in general.. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air check out that list of accidents and incidents
-Afriqiyah couldn't keep an A330 in the air because they didn't know how to fly a go around
-Korean Air couldn't land a 777 on a VFR day
**also, culturally, there's a desire among certain cultures to
A.) the pilots lack the Alpha personality to take charge.. instead rely on rote memorization. "gee, stick pusher says to pitch down, okay.. I'll do what it says"
B.) there is a lot of pride.. so ofcourse they're going to blame Boeing, or anyone else they can (like SFO because the ILS didn't work)
Just wait until they find out it's inept and incompetent pilots. Where are the crashes from Southwest, American, Air Canada, United? Those 4 carriers combined have 85 of them flying around.. Lion Air on the other hand has 14.. and Ethiopian has 5... so I mean.. two different airlines can't keep 19 of them in the air.. however 4 in the US haven't had issues cruising around the skies with 85 of them
I suspect it will recover as soon as the fault is determined and fixed regardless of whether it was Boeing or the pilots. Trying to divine value from short term stock prices is foolhardy. I
Yep. Buy me some Boeing. If it's pilot error, the stock will rebound. If it's the MCAS system, they will fix it and the stock will rebound.
This would be a good week to re-read “Airframe” by Michael Crichton.
Yeah, but part of designing and marketing a plane is not to make it so complex that it exceeds the standard of training for your customer airlines. The "old" 737's aren't crashing when flown by global air carriers. The new one is. Even if it's not the plane per se, it may have been a very poor design job by Boeing.
The US operators aren't crashing, nor is China, and they have about 200 of the type between them.
Good time to buy!
Ethiopian has a much better record than the Indonesian airlines. Two crashes in Indonesia I'd be more inclined to dismiss an engineering or interface ("what's it doing now?") problem.
I'm not sure I buy the statistical analysis that says "Ethiopian only operates 5 and US airlines operate 85". The large majority of the MAX fleet delivered is outside the US and we've had two accidents outside the US. You can split the classes to make either argument.
Interesting read on the Max MCAS. People seem to be pointing fingers at a system that trims the nose down if high AOA is reached. Forward and higher mounted engines from std 737 configuration tends to push the nose up.
Boeing's Price to Earnings ratio is listed as 22 before market open today. Not exactly a bargain basement valuation, and still plenty of downside.
NTSB official commented that the specific MCAS system and how to manage it is not listed in the training manual. It falls under run away trim malfunction. To override it, a simple flip of a switch located by each pilot turns the auto trim system off. Would like to hear if any of our PoA members are flying the Max8 or 9
UK is now involved:
Yes, it's all the way down to the all-time high it reached last month...
Actually it's down 15.56% (376.62) from the high reached last month (446.01).
That there, and it's not limited to other countries than ours. There are enough silly GA accidents that prove that flight training is often dumbed-down so the student can get the license. The GA accident rate is far better than it was 60 years ago, but it's still full of some real face-palm stuff.
I frequently found that students did not understand angle of attack, of all things. Their only AoA training was straight and level stall speed stuff. No in-depth theory, no real experience of stalls or spins out of various maneuvers.
The parallel to all of this can be seen on the highway when it gets slippery: drivers will not slow down. They trust the ABS and other "safety" devices. And they end up in a wreck.
"Out of an abundance of caution...." Sigh. I wish those words would disappear and be replace with science-based fact....
After reading the comments in a couple of frequent flyer groups that have lambasted Boeing and the airlines for even designing the plane, I concluded that every comment ever put on PoA has been rational by comparison.
Folks want 100% safety regardless of cost. But they're the first to complain that their flights have been canceled when aircraft are grounded.
American Airlines did no favors by making the MAX 8 one of the most uncomfortable planes in the air, adding fuel to the fire that's calling for grounding.
I mean it reached $376 sustained for the first time last month, and it's now back there.
That's essentially correct. It's runaway stabilizer. The trim doesn't work with a trim tab like in most GA planes.
There's no way to tell, from the cockpit, why the stabilizer is running away. Several systems can, and frequently do, operate the stab trim while you are hand-flying. Regardless of the cause, the procedure is the same. Disconnect A/P and A/T then flip the stabilizer trim cutout switches.
The Lion Air report isn't final but a good amount of information has been released. Judging by the currently released information, there was nothing wrong with the MCAS system on the accident airplane. The failure was in an AoA vane/sender which fed the MCAS, and other systems, bad data.
Very little data out on the Ethiopian accident. The flightstats data, which is questionable due to poor coverage in the area, indicates that the flight never reached an altitude where the flaps would normally be retracted (field elevation is 7,657') and the problem started almost immediately. MCAS is suppressed with the flaps extended. If that holds then this wasn't an MCAS event. The rapid changes in vertical speed almost immediately after liftoff, if correct, might indicate them trying to chase a bad airspeed indication (there are three separate IAS displays) either flying manually or on autoflight. Normal minimum autopilot engagement altitude is 800'. At my airline, we typically hand-fly well into the teens, if not the flight-levels, unless the ATC/Wx situation is unusually complex.
THIS!! also love when people don't slow down because their Lexus has "all wheel drive"..! I can forgive people for not knowing the difference in AWD vs true 4WD.. but do people really not know that sending power to all four wheels will NOT help you slow down.. and that cars have always (just about) had 4 wheel brakes?!
It actually amazes me we don't have more accidents in GA (to your point about poor training, no AoA understanding, etc.), and I chock that up to the mundane and forgiving characteristics of your typical PA28 and C172/C182. If everyone were flying Lancair, Mooney, Cirrus (assuming no transition course), Bonanza, etc., we'd see a lot more accidents
But the airlines, at least in the US, from the handful of commercial big iron pilots I know, the training seems to cover a healthy mix of stick and rudder and rote memorization.. enough to the point where both can almost supplement the other
Other cultures, or countries, don't seem to put as big a focus on stick and rudder.. and there's a high level of obedience to the process. Has no one on this forum really ever had to over ride a runaway trim? In my relatively low hour count (<1000) I've had three different issues with trim issues.. each time mind you on Pipers
1.) scariest: the yoke trim button got physically stuck when I trimmed down for cruise.. the trim wheel went full nose down. I had about 75 hrs.. so man forced it and flew an ugly approach and landed
-in hindsight yes I know I could have untoggled the elec trim switch.. but I was trying too hard to keep the plane somewhat level
2.) different Archer.. the manual trim wheel got stuck in the take off setting.. you physically could not spin the wheel.. didn't even leave the pattern
3.) same Archer as #2.. the trim wheel moved suspiciously freely, only to find out it was "slipping" internally and not actually trimming
Granted, an Archer is not a 180,000 lb airplane.. but you would think similar principles apply.. I mean the Gimli glider dude actually *slipped* a 767. And most big iron pilots will tell me that outside of taxiing most big jets really aren't that different to fly than small planes
**Is there a software issue that can put the pilot in a comprimising situation on the 737 MAX.. potentially, I grant you that. But should it be killing people?! No way!
I thought I read the pilot said he was returning because of a problem.
If there was some sort of bad airspeed indication, combined with a turn back to the airport, combined with essentially a single-pilot operation on that flight, combined with the extra stress of having a problem, that seems like a formula setting up for forgetting to "fly the airplane".
I wonder if there will be an expedited investigation since this has become such an international incident for Boeing and a lot of aviation administrations.
Germany, France, Australia, Singapore...
Here's a list of groundings (from the red board):
Pack ‘em in like sardines: 30” pitch, 200 passengers.
If that’s what airlines want to do, it’s hard to make passengers love the plane, or anything about the experience.
Just saying... although I am a bit skeptical
It's easy to tell the AWD/4WD vehicles in the Pacific Northwest ... you can see the transaxle when they're laying on their side in the ditch by the side of the road.
..heads up, I'm about to dork out.. but I'm actually happy you shared that.. below:
*there are many situations in which ABS is actually NOT your friend.. but typically this comes to finer surfaces.. like sugary sand, etc. In my experience, certain snow conditions also get better stopping power when you let the wheels lock up and DIG IN so to speak
I've experimented with this too.. in the FJ coming down a soft sugar sand hill you are basically not able to stop in 2WD since the ABS keeps the wheels turning and down you go.. however, if you lock your diffs and go to 4WD and pull the hand brake (which usually activate just rear axle) then I can come to fast and quick stop.. since the wheels dig in. Back in Boston in fresh or deep snow I found the same to be true there too. In fact, I've talked with some off roaders who have found ways to disable ABS (via toggle) for situations of sand, gravel, certain types of snow, etc.
In the video above, I believe that's what we're seeing.. with the 4WD system on we're effectively disabling the ABS by locking the wheels together and letting them dig in more. You can see on the video.. the car with all four tires locked stops faster than the car that has the ABS cycling
In general though.. short of tech gimmicks.. and especially in AWD (read, not 4WD) car like most lux SUVs.. the all wheel drive component will not help
Personally I loathe ABS.. it's a nanny state invention designed for incompetent drivers. If I could buy my cars without ABS I would.
There is no industry standard for those terms, so folks can use them as they will, if four wheels can be driven.
Funny feeling when you're on a snow covered road and there's a Range on its side in the ditch and yet you cruise by in your Toyota Celica no problem..