As of 6/3/21, current used small aircraft market.

tawood

tawood

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Tim
Haven't posted here in a few years (been busy with a new business after retiring from my old job). Just sold my '66 Piper Cherokee, and the market really is INSANE, so I thought I'd share my experience.
First a little background. I bought the plane 5 years ago, and I paid a premium because it was low hours on airframe / engine, and a very clean, well-taken-care-of aircraft. When I bough it, it was the highest priced Cherokee 140 I had ever come across (well, except for Van Bortel Cherokees!). After seeing it, I didn't even try to undercut the price...some might of said I overpaid. This was the 6th plane I've owned in my 25 years of flying, so I'm not a stranger to the buy/sell process.
My girlfriend Kristine and I put hundreds of hours on the plane in the 5 years we had it, flying it all over the country and me getting my instrument rating. I didn't really upgrade anything on it other than normal maintenance and added a SkyBeacon. Never really had problems either, other than once having a carb issue that resulted in a new carb (my most expensive repair). It was IFR certified but with the only gps an old non-updateable VFR gps. Upon putting it up for sale, engine was halfway to TBO, paint had a couple of new minor scratches but otherwise good, and tires were ok.
I listed it at 150% more than I paid 5 years ago (which seemed way too high to me), and as I listed it, it was the second highest priced Cherokee (140/150/160) on trade-a-plane. I hit "enter" on my computer to complete the listing at 10pm at night, and immediately my phone started ringing--no joke! I mean IMMMEDIATELY! I received 3 phone calls OVERNIGHT after I went to bed! The first call I answered, in the morning (7am), was a gentleman in Kentucky who said, "I'll wire you the money right now, sight unseen." He came and got it two days later. No pre-buy, no viewing in person before hand, nothing. Total time I spent on the sale with him was maybe 30 minutes tops before I handed him the keys.
In the 3 days the ad was active, I received well over 200 calls/emails/messages. I got offers to wire me 150% over ASKING PRICE, sight unseen, if I'd just end the original sale and sell to them instead!
Its been about a month now since I sold it. Money was good, has been in my bank account since putting the plane for sale, and the buyer was a very nice guy from a couple of states away. Those that know me know I worked many years as a financial crimes detective, so I did my due diligence with the way this plane was sold, on both the money and the buyer. All is good.
If my sale sounds awesome there is a downside...a major downside: I sold only to upgrade. Now I get to enter this crazy market as a buyer. Speaking of which, my hangar neighbor mentioned Oliver and Martina might be selling their Mooney... @German guy @Skywalker if there's any truth to that I may be interested.
Kristine REALLY likes having a plane, but I'm trying to get her to wait things out a bit. This can't last forever or even much longer for that matter (although right before posting, I searched and found a thread from a year ago here where numerous posters were saying the prices were about to crash any second). Guess we'll see...
 
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Planes, houses, etc. Inflation here and there, a lot more in certain areas.

My plan was to buy in a few years when I retire. If prices keep going up I have no idea how I'm going to do that.

Unfortunately, I have a gut feeling that prices are not going to drop back down. Something about owners willing and able to let their planes rot on the tarmac until they are scrap metal rather than sell at a loss, etc. Not rational, but I keep reading stories that lead me to that.
 
Planes, houses, boats, everything is nuts right now. I sold a boat last month for the same price I paid for it new 10 years ago. Same experience as you, sold it in less than a day, no haggling or due diligence. Now I have an engine fund for my plane.

Impossible to know whether the market corrects or not. Like Yogi Berra said, predictions are hard, especially about the future.

My wife and I have a long-term goal of getting a ski condo out west. Personal timing is right, but the market is terrible. Prices have doubled in the last 3 years. My gut tells me that is too high and they got to come down. But my gut also tells me I can win at roulette.
 
Unusual things are going on in the economy right now, and I don't think anyone knows exactly where things will end up. As an owner, I hope the prices stay high and the demand like it is now. :)
 
Appreciate the feedback. I got into ownership four years ago and I think I could sell my aircraft for 150% of what I paid for it and what I have put into it. I have been considering an avionics upgrade and even though that's considered a bad ROI I think I could invest in it and still come out ahead.
 
idahoflier said:
Appreciate the feedback. I got into ownership four years ago and I think I could sell my aircraft for 150% of what I paid for it and what I have put into it. I have been considering an avionics upgrade and even though that's considered a bad ROI I think I could invest in it and still come out ahead.
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I agree. I've always been told/always believed that you never get your money out of upgrades, but I don't think that's true right now. Since I do nearly 100% of my flying cross country, I had an AP on my "must have" list, but now I'm looking at planes that don't have one, and I'll just put one in...price would be about the same.
 
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I could get a whole lot more for my plane if I sold her now, but I ain't fixin ta do that.
 
I sold my plane 3 weeks ago, and sold it for a price I would never had thought I would get. My plan is to wait until the market implodes and getting something then. But it is hard to stay off TAP. Looking at something simple now and keep it tied out, but even those are going for stupid money.
 
2 years ago I had the opportunity to buy a M20E with a garmin 750 for 50k. No known issues, but I never got to a prebuy step. Today, you couldn't touch that for less than 80k.

Why? Because I still haven't learned not to listen to the wife about these things. She convinced me the '85 Porsche 911 with the whale tale was overpriced at 25k about 15 years ago. I wonder what she thinks of it at 150k?

Sigh.
 
charheep said:
I sold my plane 3 weeks ago, and sold it for a price I would never had thought I would get. My plan is to wait until the market implodes and getting something then. But it is hard to stay off TAP. Looking at something simple now and keep it tied out, but even those are going for stupid money.
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I'm considering buying something silly and small just for local use for awhile to wait out the price adjustment, like a little homebuilt twoholer. At least I still have my hangar to put it in, and if the prices drop, a small plane price won't drop too bad.
 
Retracts are selling at a discount vs fixed gear now. If you’ll sell before you hit 60 or 70 the discount might offset the boost in insurance and maintenance.
 
Hi Tim,

Gerry told me that you spoke with him. What a small aviation world! :)

tawood said:
[...] Speaking of which, my hangar neighbor mentioned Oliver and Martina might be selling their Mooney... [...]
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Yes, we want to sell her next year. We had the engine overhauled and a Garmin GTX345 ADS-B transponder installed only 3 years ago and were thinking of trying $70k - $80k (maybe a bit optimistic).
Add 150% and we might consider selling her this year already. :cool::D

Oliver
 
tawood said:
I agree. I've always been told/always believed that you never get your money out of upgrades, but I don't think that's true right now. Since I do nearly 100% of my flying cross country, I had an AP on my "must have" list, but now I'm looking at planes that don't have one, and I'll just put one in...price would be about the same.
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Agree. The conventional wisdom is changing regarding upgrades has changed. New buyers are expecting quality upgrades and willing to pay for it to eliminate the hassle and down time of having the work performed.
 
German guy said:
Hi Tim,

Gerry told me that you spoke with him. What a small aviation world! :)



Yes, we want to sell her next year. We had the engine overhauled and a Garmin GTX345 ADS-B transponder installed only 3 years ago and were thinking of trying $70k - $80k (maybe a bit optimistic).
Add 150% and we might consider selling her this year already. :cool::D

Oliver
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$80k? I’ll take it! I’ll throw in $20k more as a “price adjustment”! Lol
 
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Juliet Hotel said:
My prediction: Airplane prices won't go down. Instead the price of everything else will come up to meet them, i.e. soon everything is going to cost 150% than it did 5 years ago.
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But wages aren’t going up that fast, and buyers for $75k 50-year-old+ trainers can’t go on forever.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
My prediction: Airplane prices won't go down. Instead the price of everything else will come up to meet them, i.e. soon everything is going to cost 150% than it did 5 years ago.
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Yep. Most Millenials/Gen Zers will never even own a home, much less an airplane. Flying as a hobby will die with the boomers.
 
tawood said:
But wages aren’t going up that fast, and buyers for $75k 50-year-old+ trainers can’t go on forever.
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Don’t need forever to cause pain - just a healthy increase in buyers. Doesn’t take much.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
My prediction: Airplane prices won't go down. Instead the price of everything else will come up to meet them, i.e. soon everything is going to cost 150% than it did 5 years ago.
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I pushed "Liked" this post. The only way current used prices go down in the foreseeable years unless new aircraft manufacturers reduce prices and increase supply.
 
A well maintained, oft flown well equipped retract or fixed gear will sell easily with multiple offers if properly marketed.

If you have a 1970's vintage airplane with 1970's vintage avionics, flown 10 hours a year, and bare bones ADSB its gonna be a dog. . . .

It's 2021 - people expect a 2 axis AP, HSI or digital equivalent, and a screen GPS. . . .
 
Juliet Hotel said:
My prediction: Airplane prices won't go down. Instead the price of everything else will come up to meet them, i.e. soon everything is going to cost 150% than it did 5 years ago.
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Wait a minute. Are you saying having people stay home from work and sending checks to pretty much everyone whether they have a job or not is going to result in inflation? Inconceivable.
 
comanchepilot said:
A well maintained, oft flown well equipped retract or fixed gear will sell easily with multiple offers if properly marketed.

If you have a 1970's vintage airplane with 1970's vintage avionics, flown 10 hours a year, and bare bones ADSB its gonna be a dog. . . .

It's 2021 - people expect a 2 axis AP, HSI or digital equivalent, and a screen GPS. . . .
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Did you read my original post? My plane I just sold at a premium much more closely resembles your second paragraph than your first…An exact fit other than the “10 hours a year”
 
Good time to think about increasing hull coverage boys n girls! I upped mine, still probably low...
 
tawood said:
Did you read my original post? My plane I just sold at a premium much more closely resembles your second paragraph than your first…An exact fit other than the “10 hours a year”
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obviously doesn't apply to your airplane Tim . . . .
 
comanchepilot said:
obviously doesn't apply to your airplane Tim . . . .
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Yeah, I just don’t think it applies to much out there right now. Under a “normal” market yes, you’re spot on, but this market isn’t normal (if there even is such a thing).
 
tawood said:
Haven't posted here in a few years (been busy with a new business after retiring from my old job). Just sold my '66 Piper Cherokee, and the market really is INSANE, so I thought I'd share my experience.
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From the shoe on the other foot...

I recently made a full price offer to a guy, but said I needed to see the last three annual entries, and talk to the mechanic that worked on the plane to see how a few of the AD's were addressed. This was on a Saturday. Sunday afternoon the owner calls me to say he has three other offers on the plane one as high as $5K over the asking and will take it sight unseen. Told me if I wanted to plane I had to pony up.. no thanks - schmuck!

Friend of mine that owns a 172N tells me he gets at least one letter a week from a broker asking if he wants to sell his plane. The most recent was if the plane has under X hours air-frame and Y hours engine he would get $135K for the plane and he has customers lined up ready to buy. Considering he is into it for half of that the offer was tempting. But as I reminded him, what are you going to get after you just finished sorting everything out, rebuilt engine and nice IFR avionics - its your baby, why would you sell it? Enter Gorden Gecko!!!

Another acquaintance was contacted by a broker through a Facebook group and sold his plane for $25K over what he thought it was worth. It was coming up for an annual, mid to high time engine, crappy paint, no ADS-B, one nav-comm, and some pesky ADs were becoming due.. oye!!!

Lastly a friend sold his 152 to pay for the new avionics in his 182 - sweeeeet!!!!!!!! Overall the plane was average, but was going to need some luv in short order. Third call and it was a done full price deal, all the buyer asked is that he fly it to northern CA. The place we flew it too was breaking them down, putting them in containers, and shipping to exotic ports unknown.

It is a crazy market out there..
 
Last month I sold my '78 172N with antique avionics and over-mid-time 180 hp engine for a price over double what I had it insured for just two years ago. For just a little more I got into a Cherokee Six 300 of similar vintage, with a fresh firewall-forward overhaul and excellent IFR avionics. The seller hadn't gotten around to the cosmetics, so I'll attend to that and get the paint and interior I want.
 
Pilawt said:
Last month I sold my '78 172N with antique avionics and over-mid-time 180 hp engine for a price over double what I had it insured for just two years ago. For just a little more I got into a Cherokee Six 300 of similar vintage, with a fresh firewall-forward overhaul and excellent IFR avionics. The seller hadn't gotten around to the cosmetics, so I'll attend to that and get the paint and interior I want.
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So...you're not keeping the sheets?
 
That explains why I am getting so many people wanting to buy my C-140.

The original plan was to buy it and sell it for 25% more than I paid. That won't be difficult at all.

I'd like to actually get to fly it before I let it go, so that's going to be my priority for a while.

Speaking of Trade-A-Plane, I saw a nice 1984 Schweitzer 300C for a very reasonable price and it made me do math in my head... That's dangerous!
 
Frothy for sure, but nothing lasts forever. It's also facts not in evidence that "prices won't come down". I got my plane at the price I did as a result of a 35% dip in price from the high funded by the HELOC frenzy of the mid 2000s. That was about a 5 year arc peak to valley... but it happened, it's not imagined.

This notion that these aircraft prices won't fluctuate down because demographics or replacement fleet potato, is just rationalization to emotionally guard against the idea they are in fact buying at the top of a market.
 
The 2008 crash that dropped the prices of houses was with over extended mortgages with people who couldn’t afford the payments and shouldn’t have been given the loans. When easy lending stopped the demand dropped and thus prices.

Today we have inflation and pent up demand. I don’t see a problem with new plane owners in mass default on their loans and people not being able to still get a loan. Demand will not evaporate.

What I have is a hunch - and that is prices aren’t going to go back to what they were last year.
 
WDD said:
What I have is a hunch - and that is prices aren’t going to go back to what they were last year.
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Ok, well here's mine: Wages are not keeping up with inflation; the median is keeping cost of living parity on cheap borrowed liquidity. This interest rate policy will forcibly end since wages are not being allowed to inflate (a feature as far as the capital class is concerned, not a bug).

As such, the discretionary purchases will immediately become fodder for shedding, as they always do in "loaner"ship USA. What you will then have in the 2-5 year ownership span is increasing pressure on legacy support for these cans (already being betrayed by OEMs, see BE-35 , 210 carrythrough, PA-28 wing spar, et al) and substantive insurance increases post 737-Max/Kobe-Bryant/underwriter-exodus, and stingy underwriting for people who cannot finance either of the two said expenditure categories. Womp womp here come the sad faces post honey-moon phase.

That will sour the extended holding of said conveyance (5 year horizon, ime) and dumped they go into a market where no such pent up demand will exist. They will struggle to recoup their purchase price, bigly.

It doesn't have to be no-doc loans or a foreclosure crisis for it to be irrational exuberance all the same....Easy lending IS happening, and americans are waaaaaay to price elastic when it comes to the borrowing rate. Much way too elastic for their own good.

You're right, nobody has a crystall ball. You buy with the expectations of things never coming down, I'll hold and see them on the way down. We'll see who's comment ages better. Cheers!
 
hindsight2020 said:
Ok, well here's mine: Wages are not keeping up with inflation; the median is keeping cost of living parity on cheap borrowed liquidity. This interest rate policy will forcibly end since wages are not being allowed to inflate (a feature as far as the capital class is concerned, not a bug).

As such, the discretionary purchases will immediately become fodder for shedding, as they always do in "loaner"ship USA. What you will then have in the 2-5 year ownership span is increasing pressure on legacy support for these cans (already being betrayed by OEMs, see BE-35 , 210 carrythrough, PA-28 wing spar, et al) and substantive insurance increases post 737-Max/Kobe-Bryant/underwriter-exodus, and stingy underwriting for people who cannot finance either of the two said expenditure categories. Womp womp here come the sad faces post honey-moon phase.

That will sour the extended holding of said conveyance (5 year horizon, ime) and dumped they go into a market where no such pent up demand will exist. They will struggle to recoup their purchase price, bigly.

It doesn't have to be no-doc loans or a foreclosure crisis for it to be irrational exuberance all the same....Easy lending IS happening, and americans are waaaaaay to price elastic when it comes to the borrowing rate. Much way too elastic for their own good.

You're right, nobody has a crystall ball. You buy with the expectations of things never coming down, I'll hold and see them on the way down. We'll see who's comment ages better. Cheers!
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I hope so, I would like a new truck and I am not paying today's prices, not by half. I sold 2/3'rds of my Arrow to lessen the exposure there. My house is where I live, not an investment. If my house drops in value, so does everything else.
 
DavidWhite said:
Yep. Most Millenials/Gen Zers will never even own a home, much less an airplane.....
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seems like all they have to do after they're done taking out a loan for a college they can't afford and have the gov't wipe their student loan debt, is buy a house they can't afford then cry like little beeyotches until the gov't wipes their mortgage debt. apparently you aren't paying attention to how it's done these days.

EDIT: NOT a boomer.
 
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