A question about ice in the north east

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Jim Keiths

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Jimmy K
Hi Everyone,

Im new here. I live in Ontario. I’ve been a pilot a long while now but only ever owned 1/3 of Cessna 150. I also have a lot of 172, 182 time and a little time in a da42 though I’m not multi rated. That da42 is available if I did decide to do that.

My kids are grown now and my wife and I are thinking to get something faster to be able to scoot down to Florida, Myrtle Beach, etc now and then during the winter. Just for a week or several days at a time.

Here is where the ice question comes in. Hopefully some people with experience flying in the north east can help. If we were to get a plane with no de-ice equipment, how often could we actually make the trip from Ontario down to southern USA. We get lots of bright sunny clear and cold days here but there seems to always be some icing forecast somewhere along the route.

I know someone with a really nice rv7 that is planning to sell. It would make for a fast trip, but I don’t know how many days would be actually flyable if any.

I don’t think fiki is in the budget.

Thank you for reading and any advice you have to offer.
 
A RV7 would be a good plane to make that trip economically. It, like any plane without de-ice, has no business in icing conditions though. I would happily use a RV7 for that trip, but I would stay out of visible moisture when the temps were at or below freezing. The easiest way I have found to do that in the winter is to fly VFR with the understanding that some days just aren't flyable given the planes capabilities.
 
dont get into moisture. thats about it. in upper midwest icing airmet is pretty much from Oct to May. if you stay VFR and avoid any visible moisture, doesnt matter where the icing level is - little over simplification. avoid freezing rain etc obviously.
 
Most weekends up in the NE I can fly. I'd say 80% of them. During the week, it's more like 60% because that's how the world works when you need to make a trip. I'd figure if you're in retirement and have a flexible schedule then icing won't stop you, it'll just tell you what days you can go.
 
Flying long distances VFR is an exercise in weather pattern analysis. I fly Lady Luscombe throughout the eastern U.S. during temperate months. Some years I never have a problem other years I spend multiple days stuck. Not so much flying in the winter because the heat knob in L^2 is purely a placebo. Stay on the back side of cold fronts and you should have clear skies and excellent visibilities. However, turbulence can be an issue with higher winds in winter than summer. If the heat on the RV-7 works well I'd say go for it and stay flexible.
 
I think it is a tough flight in a light airplane during the winter months. You're talking a thousand mile cross country. Looking at the current prog charts, there's a trough over the Great Lakes, so today is probably a no-go. Looking at forecasts for the next 2-3 days, that trough remains in place for much of the time, and there's a cold front in your way for part of the time. I think that's probably typical for the winter months. Sure, there will be days when you could make the flight, but I think we're talking one day out of three, and it won't be that easy. It'll be 3 horrible days, one OK day, two good days, then ten days of misery, etc. It isn't like you're guaranteed <say> two good days a week.

Winter flying like this is why airlines exist.
 
Thanks everyone this is very encouraging. I’m in the east near Montreal and Ottawa, Great Lakes don’t have too big an impact here.. Ceilings are 7000 here now. And clear just 150 miles south. Very interesting stuff. Thanks a lot
 
FORANE said:
A RV7 would be a good plane to make that trip economically. It, like any plane without de-ice, has no business in icing conditions though. I would happily use a RV7 for that trip, but I would stay out of visible moisture when the temps were at or below freezing. The easiest way I have found to do that in the winter is to fly VFR with the understanding that some days just aren't flyable given the planes capabilities.
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Even small planes that have FIKI don't really have any business in actual icing conditions, it's meerly a way to buy you time to get out. A plane without icing equipment ought not (and can't legally) even be in forecast icing conditions.
 
I’ve been flying a Maule and now an RV10 between Durham NC, Pittsburgh, NYC and occasionally elsewhere during the winter for years. The key is to spend as much time as possible in or near the Caribbean. But seriously, Ontario to the south is a bit more challenging.

With that said, flexibility is the key and flexibility has become signicantly easier to manage over the past 20+ years. Retirement helps but two things have made a real difference.

The first is just vast improvements in weather forecasting. For me it starts with TV weather forecasts (Accuweather?). Seven day forecasts have become sharper and more accurate. Two week outlooks are surprisingly useful. The aviation weather available through Foreflight is fantastic and I’m not talking about the icing forecasts as much as longer range cloud cover forecasts, daily and MOS(?() forecasts, and of course on the day flight, Pireps. I use the 7+ day forecasts to pick windows when flight may be possible. That allows me to schedule trips. Then the flexibility to move it a day or two, here and there, generally allows the trip to be made more or less as planned.

Then the weather reporting available in flight is a game changer on the day of the flight. Flying in VMC is an obvious requirement but not necessarily VFR. I fly exclusively IFR but winter often requires blue bird conditions for most of the flight.

But post frontal conditions are not necessarily the best conditions. Being able to fly in smooth air at 8,000 between a broken layer below and overcast above is some of the most comfortable flying around. Being willing to descend through a 1,000’ of broken cloud near the destination with winds light and variable sure beats getting bounced around for 3-4 hours at 5,000 and landing in 20G35. And it really helps to be able to get current reports from any and all airports along the route in flight!

The other thing that seems to have improved is just having warmer conditions on average. Fall breaks later, spring comes sooner and winters seem on average, milder. None of that changes anything on a given mission but it seems being non-FIKI has become slightly less disadvantageous over time. Just slightly.


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Good points there Bill. My old c150 doesn’t have any instruments from the 21st century but the rv7 is quite advanced with Xm weather and adsb in and out. Thank you for replying
 
I fly a fair bit in the winter. We're actually leaving for Florida on Tuesday (thankfully the forecast CAVU). Ontario is sure to be more challenging than illinois, but my experience has been that 80%+ of days are flyable. There's a lot of days where there's a thin ovc-bkn layer at 1000 agl, but it's clear above. There's really no danger of punching through that if you know what's above via pirep or skew-t. Don't construe this to mean be casual about ice. Do your homework and always have an out.

HERE weather patterns rarely sit around for too long, so being able to adjust your date a day or two greatly increases dispatch rate. This is where it's nice to own your own plane. In the midwest, I don't really feel limited by lack of fiki. The more complicated airspace and slightly harsher, wetter NE winters will certainly reduce your dispatch rate, but I still think you'd be able to go more often than not.
 
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Jim Keiths said:
Thanks everyone this is very encouraging. I’m in the east near Montreal and Ottawa, Great Lakes don’t have too big an impact here.. Ceilings are 7000 here now. And clear just 150 miles south. Very interesting stuff. Thanks a lot
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Great lakes may not influence you much up near Montreal, but they do down in NY. A lot of the winter weather here in the Hudson River valley is from west-nw, and it picks up a lot of moisture. So the river valley is beautifully green in the spring and summer, and we almost never have much of a drought, but it's wet in the winter. It's flyable here, of course, but there are weekends where you don't have the pattern because of the cloud ceiling.
 
The Great Lakes are ice machines. Those lake effect clouds are very juicy and can load you up in no time. I got a good lesson during an IPC where we were going up and down through a shallow (2000 foot) lake effect layer repeatedly. We picked up a load of ice each time through. It sublimed on top and melted down below. We eventually abandoned the IPC because of the icing. It was a good practical lesson. I tread carefully now for IFR around the lakes in cooler months, which can even include October and May.

IFR in the winter months is challenging near the Great Lakes, unless you can stay reliably below or above the moisture, or unless it is bone-chilling cold, or you can be flexible enough to pick a departure/return day with benign weather. I've done a few winter IFR trips, but they are often not compatible with a rigid schedule, and icing exposure is always a concern.
 
WannFly said:
dont get into moisture. thats about it. in upper midwest icing airmet is pretty much from Oct to May. if you stay VFR and avoid any visible moisture, doesnt matter where the icing level is - little over simplification. avoid freezing rain etc obviously.
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Not so obvious to me at least. Often the temps are inverted and the lower you go the colder, so you may be under a cloud in severe VFR and still pick up freezing rain. Happened to me in Michigan last year. Wasn't in a cloud, but still picked up a lot of ice VERY quickly.
 
If your objective is just getting to Florida, consider that you could keep your 150 share and use the RV7 money to buy an awful lot of airline tickets.

It’s almost certain that icing conditions will keep you on the ground somewhere along your route, if not on the way to Florida then on the return leg.
 
I haven’t looked at the recent prices of G3 Cirrus 22’s, but they have non-FIKI anti ice systems the are quite useful for getting out of un”known” or unexpected icing.

As far north as you are, the freezing level is often at the surface, so this won’t help you with the airmet’s, but it is comforting knowing you can get safely to the ground when your truly vfr plan over such a long distance turns against you, maybe cuz you need to get to the lav, or another pressing but not critical event.

I had pretty good luck here in NY when in a G3, but now fly a FIKI turbo precisely because of the issue…but this winter, the ice has occasionally been from low level to the FL’s. Sometimes you stay home.

TB
 
Generally for single engine piston aircraft, the ice potential is greatest when you have a lot of moisture and/or terrain to lift it. You don’t say where in Ontario you live, but a route from Ontario to the SE US is a long winter XC may present some issues.

The area around the Great Lakes from mid November - mid March enters nuclear winter. The high moisture in the area presents frequent IFR and Ice.

The second issue is the up slope effect caused by terrain extending along your route south of the Lakes that causes IFR, Ice conditions and requires higher en route altitudes.

The third issue moisture from the ocean of the east side of the terrain.

If your plan is we are flying down and coming back on a specific date you are setting yourself up for disappointment because the weather gods are going to have to be blessing you for a 1000 nm winter XC.

Keep in mind there are days in winter even the heavy metal doesn’t fly.
 
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