General Avation dead? I say NO!

SixPapaCharlie said:
Come to Texas. It is alive and well here.
Our GA airports are saturated. Waiting list for hangar space is never ending and young (age 25-35 ish) students are buzzing around like mosquitos.
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Yes. I've always thought the best barometer is available hangar space. Is there hangar space available ANYWHERE in the country today?:hairraise:
 
MarkZ said:
It's not dying, but with prices for aircraft, and prices for equipment so astronomically high it isn't growing as healthy as it could.
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Any industry that has healthy growth always includes all walks of life not just the one percenters.
Between the rising cost of buying an Aircraft and fuel, aviation is quickly slipping out of the reach for the general public.
15 years ago most general aviation airports in Florida were extremely vibrant and thriving, today many of those same airports are no longer accessible either financially or because TSA has fenced them in like some sort of federal prison.

JMTCW
 
Clip4 said:
And what percentage of the attendees did you see with grey hair?
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Lots. But I started greying in my 30's. Now in my mid 40's I went to sun n fun for the first time this year and attended with my brother who has been going for over 20 years. He says snf if a mere shell of what it used to be. I wasn't terribly impressed, but I had a lot of fun.

Certified ga is dying but experimental is booming. In 10-15 yes when all the boomers will be getting out of their hobbies the cost of certified used aircraft will plummet more than they have already. But I can only hope that the 180 and super cub prices come down out of the stratosphere.

If you think ga might be dead wait till you see Oshkosh. SunNFun is a small fraction of that show. You are going to wet your pants.
 
Datadriver said:
Yes. I've always thought the best barometer is available hangar space. Is there hangar space available ANYWHERE in the country today?:hairraise:
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I rented my hangar at KBVS a year ago and got my choice of six empty ones also got two Mo. free rent to move in. Now their is a waiting list for the hangars, things are getting better. Still not back to landing at my local twr airport hearing your number six behind a cessna to land, those days are gone.:cheerswine:
 
I wouldn't exactly say experimental is booming. Outside of Vans, who's actually making money on kits these days?
 
Statistics on traffic depend on aircraft either filing or calling ATC.
I suspect the rising percentage of GA flights being in experimental or LSA is contributing to the drop in "reported" GA traffic since they are less likely to need, or want, to talk to ATC.
Other sources for measuring GA activity are calls to FSS briefers. I almost never talk to them any more. I stream everything I need to know off the web.
Many, like me, only talk to ATC if they are forced into it. And yes, I fly cross country. I fly a 2400 mile round trip annually and use unicom at the uncontrolled airports where I get fuel - no ATC, no flight plans. It works out most of the time. Once in a while the weather just goes sour and I'm forced to use the system.
 
dans2992 said:
This is just an off the cuff estimate, but I'd guess that > 50% of my High School graduating class is making at least six figures.
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In some parts of the country (low) six figures isn't much. In the Silicon valley you get a choice of horrible housing, expensive housing or long commutes. Add to that some of the most expensive flying in the country and you're not going to get many new pilots. When I was looking for jobs here in Southern California it was a bit of a challenge finding a location where I could afford to fly and not have a horrible commute or a tiny apartment. I ended up going for the shorter commute but the less-nice neighbourhood just so I'd have time and money for flying.
 
ClimbnSink said:
What was the age group of all those raging at sun n fun? The golf industry is scared all their customers are dying and there are no younger ones lining up. Maybe golf courses will get turned back into airports...

There is a level of economic cynicism among the under 50 crowd, even the ones doing well, that I suspect will keep many of the classic expensive past times from flourishing.
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Count me as one of the cynics in his 40s.

The "classic expensive pastimes" were affordable during a massive growth period in the country. GDP rose 0.1% this quarter. A tenth of a percent.

Meanwhile the country's personal and governmental debt load continues to climb.

I wouldn't call it pessimism as much as realism.

As far as golf goes, it's dull. Shooting ranges are doing well. ;)
 
soyAnarchisto said:
If you think ga might be dead wait till you see Oshkosh. SunNFun is a small fraction of that show. You are going to wet your pants.
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Oshkosh is grand. Sadly if GA were healthy there'd be ten of them scattered throughout the country, not just one that hasn't grown significantly larger since the late 70s or early 80s.
 
denverpilot said:
Oshkosh is grand. Sadly if GA were healthy there'd be ten of them scattered throughout the country, not just one that hasn't grown significantly larger since the late 70s or early 80s.
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Was there actually events like Sun and Fun and Osh across the country? I'm just getting into GA so I have no idea!
 
i don't think mass "state fair"-like events like oshkosh are particularly significant as gauges of the health of general aviation. I'm holding on (by my teeth at times) to the avocation and I don't frequent those events (I hate crowds).

The scarcity and price bloat of hangaring costs in urban settings can be also taken to mean that there isn't enough demand to expand therefore the few players that exist create bidding wars amongst each other for the few spots available. That's not indicative of a populous participation level at a macro level.
 
Hanger prices in the SE are cheap. Paid $125 for my first hanger. $150 for the second (brand new). Currently paying $225 but it's a double wide and can fit two planes in it.
 
GA is not dead around here on Long Island! GA is keeping KISP alive and well and good luck not waiting 20 minutes to take off out of KFRG on a weekend.

Believe me, if GA does die, I won't go to the funeral-- I'll be flying. ;)
 
FloridaPilot said:
Was there actually events like Sun and Fun and Osh across the country? I'm just getting into GA so I have no idea!
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There still are. I just think they'd be bigger by now if things were "booming". Copperstate is close. Reno too, if it survives.
 
Bill Watson said:
That's why I stopped going.... Didn't want to mess up the demographic.
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Haha, I can relate to that so I've probably only been to a handful, or maybe less. Even in the old days flying as a hobby seemed to be populated by the older (meaning over 50) set. I think that even back then people had to wait until they had more money and/or grown children who didn't make as many demands on their time.
 
I guess it's a good thing I started turning white in my late 30s. I'll always fit right in. :)
 
jspilot said:
GA is not dead around here on Long Island! GA is keeping KISP alive and well and good luck not waiting 20 minutes to take off out of KFRG on a weekend.

Believe me, if GA does die, I won't go to the funeral-- I'll be flying. ;)
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Reading your post made me think about all of the fun I had at Robert Moses and Mako Shark fishing out of Montauk. (I'm from NY)
 
Norman said:
You must have been in first class. The last SWA 737 I was in was a sardine can personified. :eek:
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First Class on SWA!!! No such thing. But I've flown a lot of international B-class and some domestic 1st... All good. But 10-15 years ago when Econ seat pitch was being 'optimized'', things sucked for 6 footers. SWA, not bad at all, and great morale. Very pleasant.
Dr. O said:
Statistics on traffic depend on aircraft either filing or calling ATC.
I suspect the rising percentage of GA flights being in experimental or LSA is contributing to the drop in "reported" GA traffic since they are less likely to need, or want, to talk to ATC.
Other sources for measuring GA activity are calls to FSS briefers. I almost never talk to them any more. I stream everything I need to know off the web.
Many, like me, only talk to ATC if they are forced into it. And yes, I fly cross country. I fly a 2400 mile round trip annually and use unicom at the uncontrolled airports where I get fuel - no ATC, no flight plans. It works out most of the time. Once in a while the weather just goes sour and I'm forced to use the system.
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I'm flying an ex homebuilt but fly in the system almost 100%... Why wouldn't one exercise a 'free' resource to the max? It's a privilege, just like driving down an interstate. Just takes training.
 
Cub crafters. Not a lot I money but the waiting list to get a carbon cub is approaching 6 months - for a plane that costs 200 grand.

Velocity173 said:
I wouldn't exactly say experimental is booming. Outside of Vans, who's actually making money on kits these days?
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The Lancair Evolution seems to be popular amongst those that can afford it.
 
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