Riddles and Brainteasers
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Skylane81E
Final Approach
Switch, see mythbusters for test data.
numl0ck
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I understand what you're saying, but the math for this problem says otherwise. You are far more likely to get the prize if you switch doors. This has been proven over and over again (and even Mythbusters did it).
alfadog
Final Approach
I understand what you're saying, but the math for this problem says otherwise. You are far more likely to get the prize if you switch doors. This has been proven over and over again (and even Mythbusters did it).
Not if you picked right the first time. Then your odds of getting the prize drop to zero if you switch. The gambler (or anyone else for that matter) might well think he picked right the first time and it is not about math.
What if you were betting your life? What if you made the initial choice under the threat of death and based your selection on whatever intuition, gut feeling, prayer, or god's blessing you think you had coming. Would you be so quick to change based on "probability". It ain't always about math. The question is not which option has a statistically higher chance of success, it is about what you would do in your ONE chance, not some hypothetical sufficiently large sample of events. People are not wrong for sticking with their original instinct
Sorry to get all deep and sh*t.
Skylane81E
Final Approach
Not if you picked right the first time. Then your odds of getting the prize drop to zero if you switch. The gambler (or anyone else for that matter) might well think he picked right the first time and it is not about math.
What if you were betting your life? What if you made the initial choice under the threat of death and based your selection on whatever intuition, gut feeling, prayer, or god's blessing you think you had coming. Would you be so quick to change based on "probability". It ain't always about math. The question is not which option has a statistically higher chance of success, it is about what you would do in your ONE chance, not some hypothetical sufficiently large sample of events. People are not wrong for sticking with their original instinct
Sorry to get all deep and sh*t.
And that is why people don't switch, also explored in the mythbusters segment, thing is you never had any clue what door hid what. It ain't a game of skill but chance.
I didn't say bad gamblers don't do that lol, that's how those casinos exist.
I'm talking about the pros who make a living at it. Remember, 80/20 rule applies to everything. I'm just saying don't rule out people using odds, they are the ones that win. MIT got busted out of all casinos for life over their ability to factor odds instantly in their heads.
Not if you picked right the first time. Then your odds of getting the prize drop to zero if you switch. The gambler (or anyone else for that matter) might well think he picked right the first time and it is not about math.
What if you were betting your life? What if you made the initial choice under the threat of death and based your selection on whatever intuition, gut feeling, prayer, or god's blessing you think you had coming. Would you be so quick to change based on "probability". It ain't always about math. The question is not which option has a statistically higher chance of success, it is about what you would do in your ONE chance, not some hypothetical sufficiently large sample of events. People are not wrong for sticking with their original instinct
Sorry to get all deep and sh*t.
Factoring in luck, lol, you made my day. Believing you have skill at picking a door. Really?
The Monty Hall Problem is strictly mechanical, switch you win 2/3's of the time, don't you lose 2/3's of the time. Your cognitive and behavioral biases will never help you here. Never ever.
If you play when the house has an advantage then your lifetime (win)lose will be a function of monies risked and time spent playing. It is easily modeled and the best way to lock in a lose equal to the house advantage is frequent play. The error around that is why individuals think they are having a good run (or bad) yet the house (having many more samples) consistently yields a constant rate. The ability to confuse stochastic error with skill is what keeps casinos operating.
alfadog
Final Approach
Meh, you believe what you want to believe and I will believe what I want to believe. Math and science describe only a small portion of human experience. They are a subset that some think is a superset.
I don't think math nor science is in anyway complete, but I'll wager if you run the experiment in any unbiased way you'll find that people who choose not to switch will win 1/3 of the time. You will also find that this occurs regardless of their reason (luck, inspiration, faith, or conviction) for not switching.
If you find differently, and there is not an error, it will be one of the greatest finding in human history. A finding, btw, that has been sought by many in many different ways without success.
alfadog
Final Approach
I am not talking about a study or a survey or an experiment. I am talking about one occurrence. See my prior post re betting your life. Personally, I do not run by life by statistics. I would rather run it by magic or inspiration or what have you. Like I said, you believe what you like and I will believe what I like.
You may or may not enjoy this lecture.
Live by the foma that make you brave and kind and healthy and happy.
-Book of Bokonon 1:5
Feel free to let them know if they don't pick the winning door you will shoot them, then count the bodies.
Anyway, your position is spiritual and untestable - the very epitome of a belief - and I encourage all to believe what they will...
alfadog
Final Approach
Again, you insist on a statistical sampling when the question is what would you do in your one occurrence, "If you are the contestant, what should you do?" :wink2:
The question is as simple as "do you prefer a 1/3 chance or a 2/3 chance" - so you are the contestant, what should you do?
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alfadog
Final Approach
Again, believe what you like.
Captain
Final Approach
Two sharpshooters are to compete in a contest on who is the quicker shot. It is a single shot rifle, and assume that their firing speed is constant regardless of how many shots they fire.
Timing begins with the first shot.
Person A fires 5 shots in 5 seconds.
Person B fires 10 shots in 10 seconds.
Who is the quicker shot?
Timing begins with the first shot.
Person A fires 5 shots in 5 seconds.
Person B fires 10 shots in 10 seconds.
Who is the quicker shot?
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
Person B
Skylane81E
Final Approach
I use my skill and intuition to fully understand the question being asked of me, pick a door, then switch.
Skylane81E
Final Approach
Agreed, he reloads faster.
A shoots 4 shots over a period of 5 seconds (starts with first shot) for a rate of 1.25 seconds per shot
B shoots 9 shots over a period of 10 seconds for a rate of 1.11 seconds per shot
So, B is faster
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Captain
Final Approach
I should have added, "prove your answer"
Skylane81E
Final Approach
Gun is already loaded at first shot so shooter a fires 5 shots and reloads 4 times, shooter b fires 10 shots and reloads 9 times. 9/10 > 4/5
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
Too Late!
clock starts @ first shot (I saw this on the discovery channel- so it must be correct
).A: 4 shots/5 sec = 0.8 shots/sec
B: 9 shots/10 seconds = 0.9 shots/sec
0.9> 0.8
Speaking of lateToo Late!
clock starts @ first shot (I saw this on the discovery channel- so it must be correct
A: 4 shots/5 sec = 0.8 shots/sec
B: 9 shots/10 seconds = 0.9 shots/sec
0.9> 0.8
Captain
Final Approach
Too Late!
clock starts @ first shot (I saw this on the discovery channel- so it must be correct
A: 4 shots/5 sec = 0.8 shots/sec
B: 9 shots/10 seconds = 0.9 shots/sec
0.9> 0.8
There ya go...you get a:
Correct!
Captain
Final Approach
Post 300
Sorry FlyerQ. I missed your post. You sir, are:
Correcter! (correcter than just saying 'b')
Cap'n Jack
Final Approach
Two motorcycles are on a single lane road 25 miles apart, facing each other. At the sound of a starting gun they ride towards each other, one at 20 mph, the other at 30 mph.
The instant the gun sounds a fly is startled off the helmet of the slower rider and heads toward the faster at 40 mph. The instant he reaches the faster rider he reverses course, heading towards the slower rider. This ping ponging continues until all 3 eventually collide.
How far does the fly travel?
The instant the gun sounds a fly is startled off the helmet of the slower rider and heads toward the faster at 40 mph. The instant he reaches the faster rider he reverses course, heading towards the slower rider. This ping ponging continues until all 3 eventually collide.
How far does the fly travel?
upstateny
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20 miles
Correct
There are 100 taxi lights lined up in a row. Each bulb has its own switch. There are 100 pilots lined up in a nearby hanger. Each bulb and each pilot is number consecutively 1 to 100. The first pilot leaves the hanger and turns on every bulb. Once done, the second pilot leaves the hanger and throws every other switch (2, 4, 6, ..). Then the third pilots throws every third switch (3, 6, 9). This continues until all pilots have gone.
Is bulb 64 lit or dark at the end? How about bulb 83? Why.
Is bulb 64 lit or dark at the end? How about bulb 83? Why.
upstateny
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Fly riddle solution
The simple answer is not to worry about the "ping ponging" the fly does.
The motorcycles have a closing rate of 50mph, so they will cover the 25 miles in half an hour. (The slower one will have traveled 10 miles, the faster one, 15.) In half an hour at 40mph, the fly will cover 20 miles.
The simple answer is not to worry about the "ping ponging" the fly does.
The motorcycles have a closing rate of 50mph, so they will cover the 25 miles in half an hour. (The slower one will have traveled 10 miles, the faster one, 15.) In half an hour at 40mph, the fly will cover 20 miles.
Thanks, that is the observation that lets you get past the distraction of integrating over an ever shrinking ping pong trip...
upstateny
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As people ponder I'll share you are correct
