Too Damn Many Crashes This Weekend

F

FlyingElvii

Line Up and Wait
Joined
Jun 24, 2016
Messages
798
Display Name
Display name:
flyingElvii
And it is not over yet.
Be careful out there, folks.

Bainbridge Island:
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/plane-crashes-into-eagle-harbor-off-bainbridge-island/757902236

RV-6 at Petaluma:
http://www.ktvu.com/news/two-dead-in-plane-crash-outside-petaluma-airport

Omaha:
http://www.omaha.com/news/metro/kil...cle_5c5c889f-1faa-54e2-915e-fc304f7d9350.html

Cirrus at Houston Exec
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/ne...ashes-at-houston-executive-airport/ar-AAxU79n

Cessna at Hampshire, Ill:
http://www.dailyherald.com/news/20180527/plane-strikes-power-line-crashes-in-hampshire

AGCat(??) in Butler County, Mo:
http://www.kfvs12.com/story/38288207/small-plane-crashes-in-butler-county-mo

Beech Staggerwing (!!!) in Las Vegas, NM:
http://abc30.com/faa-and-ntsb-investigate-plane-crash-involving-pilot-heading-to-fresno/3525998/

Falmouth, Ky:
http://www.fox19.com/story/38288411...er-single-engine-plane-crashes-in-ky-hayfield

Not all of them:
There are not enough of us around to sustain this kind of a rate, IMHO...
 
First holiday weekend of good weather for summer. Happens most years. Many not quite this many though.
 
Yep, good weather and a holiday produce predictable results. Same can be said for motorcycle wrecks. Pulled a few off “The Dragon” last week.
 
How many is not too many?

Be careful driving to the airport BTW.
https://jalopnik.com/youre-more-likely-to-die-in-a-car-crash-on-memorial-day-1795291829
sn48ce8efskehj15i1hh.png
 
From The Killing Zone: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
 
sorry....but this is a typical holiday weekend. This day....a few years ago....my friend survived a fatal mid-air collision while squawking with Potomac Approach. The two very experienced pilots in the other aircraft were not so fortunate.
 
Challenged said:
From The Killing Zone: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
Click to expand...

So what?
 
James331 said:
So what?
Click to expand...
Was being contentious and pointing out that none of the analysis I've seen seems to indicate that driving is more dangerous than GA https://blog.aopa.org/aopa/2009/02/27/its-safer-than-driving-a-car-not/

At the end of the day, I just want to understand the risk inherent in GA as best as I can. I own a plane and put myself, my wife and 4 year old in it after all, and they're relying on me in my role as PIC. It's certainly a role that I take seriously, even though aviation is a very enjoyable activity for me.
 
Last edited:
paflyer said:
Good thing it's not 11 times, I'd give it up!
Click to expand...
You joke, but at some point it would be too risky for me to participate. I don't know what that number is, but if the chance of dying was 50% every time I went up, I wouldn't fly.
 
Let's think about this another way: imagine you were given the opportunity to make love to Kate Upton, but there was a 50% chance of dying while doing so. Would you do it? Okay, bad example
 
Challenged said:
Let's think about this another way: imagine you were given the opportunity to make love to Kate Upton, but there was a 50% chance of dying while doing so. Would you do it? Okay, bad example
Click to expand...

Probably would have a 50 % chance of dying once her husband found out. ;)
 
On Memorial Day, a thought for those guys who flew heavys with the 8th in WWII. Their odds of completing 25 missions was less that 50% early in the war and they went anyway.

Salute
 
maj75 said:
On Memorial Day, a thought for those guys who flew heavys with the 8th in WWII. Their odds of completing 25 missions was less that 50% early in the war and they went anyway.

Salute
Click to expand...

Have to factor in the fatal rate during training, also. You only got to fly missions if you survived training, and numbers on training fatals for WWII are almost as high as KIA numbers at certain training facilities.

They also get a salute from me, but I don’t fool myself into thinking they really had a choice of whether to go or not. Societal pressure and other factors made that all but a given back then. My grandfather passed still wishing he could have served, because he was one of the few from his small town who couldn’t, due to a shattered and fused ankle from an baseball accident in high school.

His best friend for life was one of the Normandy glider pilots and ironically also shattered an ankle landing the glider, which after reading about the overall fiasco of glider ops may have been one of the better outcomes on D-Day that he could have had. He was sent home and also had his ankle fused and sat out the rest of the war.

The flying bug had bit and he flew a number of years after the war in old Cubs and Taylorcrafts but never did it professionally. His flying skills came in handy when the coyotes got too populous apparently and he had a number of stories of being a bit too low while someone was picking them off with a rifle in the venerable old Cub.

We had a number of conversations about flying and he shared some very wise words with me as a green Private Pilot many moons ago. Not surprisingly most of them centered on the timeless concept of “never stop flying the airplane until the crashing is over with”, and “if you don’t have to fly low, don’t...”

Gus married his nurse like any good South Dakota farm boy turned Purple Heart earner and he would visit grandpa’s house so he and grandpa could say they were headed to get car parts at the store so they could go sit at the local diner and Gus could have a plate of sausage and ham and fried potatoes that his wonderful nurse wife wouldn’t let him eat in his older years. Hahaha.

I went with them a couple of times and ran in and got the auto parts on the way back home. Funny how those auto parts trips took four hours. :)

The girls knew, of course. Nobody said a word. :)

RIP to both grandpa and Gus. They both appeared to have some fun during their time they had here. None of them wanted to be called heroes. They just wanted to survive and go home. Nothing changes about that in any war then, or since.
 
On my way to the airport on Thursday I had to come to a complete stop coming out of a double yellow corner. Why? Because had I not, the fat c-word driving the f-word minivan felt it necessary to pass while cresting a hill and going into the corner I was coming out of would have slammed into me head on with a closing speed of around 120mph and I would have probably been dead. That was a 20m trip to the airport. I flew around 570nm without coming anywhere close to having any sort of issue. So don't give me the 10.9 times more likely story.
.
 
Challenged said:
From The Killing Zone: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
Click to expand...
OK, "The Killing Zone". Yea. no agenda or sensationalism here.

"10.9" Three significant digits. NFW can you get a number with three significant digits from any kind of accident data.
The FAA doesn't even know how many people are flying airplanes. And they are just guessing how many hours/miles that unknown number of pilots are flying. Not much different for automobiles. A number pulled from a warm dark place compared to another number pulled from some other warm dark place does not give you three significant digits.
 
I'd just like to see more pilots acknowledge the risk involved, I think it makes it safer for all of us. I'd be more comfortable sharing the pattern with someone who respected the risks involved with GA than someone who didn't even pause to reflect on the possibility of a mid air.
 
Challenged said:
I'd just like to see more pilots acknowledge the risk involved, I think it makes it safer for all of us. I'd be more comfortable sharing the pattern with someone who respected the risks involved with GA than someone who didn't even pause to reflect on the possibility of a mid air.
Click to expand...
The majority of fatalities are from stupid pilot tricks - generally the pilot that's flying the plane. Whereas on the road I have to worry about 100 million other idiots and their stupid driver tricks from a distsnce of less that a car length. In the air I GENERALLY have to worry about myself doing something stupid.

SPT include but are not limited to:
Lack of recurrent training (can be done solo)
Flying into conditions they shouldn't and pushing their luck.
Trying to make it to $0.50 cheaper fuel.
Not REALLY knowing the plane they are in.
"Hey y'all watch this."
"Foreflight tells me everything, I dont have to look outside."
 
Last edited:
I agree Ed. Honestly, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade here, but I feel like it's coming across that way. I just think that having an attitude of: "This is a risky endeavor, I need to have my ducks in a row today." is a safer attitude to have than: "Whew, glad that drive is over, now the safe part starts.../fires up the engine and flys off into the thunderstorm".
 
Last edited:
Challenged said:
You joke, but at some point it would be too risky for me to participate. I don't know what that number is, but if the chance of dying was 50% every time I went up, I wouldn't fly.
Click to expand...

Why worry.
No one gets out of here alive, so what difference does it make if it's in a car or a plane, or a doctor prescribing the wrong pill? (look at THAT statistic)
 
I'll probably worry less once my 4 year old can take care of himself.
 
That Cirrus crash at Houston, reminded me of a lady High school teacher i had, it was a single pilot on board, but the report was" "someone" lost control of the airplane after take off", just struck me as strange way to put it
 
Just think of all those GA flights this weekend that DIDN'T end in tragedy...including mine.
 
I guess it's not really a black and white issue, but the nobody lives forever and I flew yesterday and didn't die attitudes seem like they would be at odds with a mentality that's conducive to maximizing safety. Maybe I'm just jealous that some of you can partake in GA without any concerns about safety, it's certainly something that I think about a good bit.
 
Challenged said:
.....imagine you were given the opportunity to make love to Kate Upton, but there was a 50% chance of dying while doing so. Would you do it?....
Click to expand...


I wouldn’t die if I killed her first!


AFTER the sex.....jeez people, I have morals!
 
....and another, thankfully no injuries :
Another one just ended up in the water attempting takeoff at KCDK....? Downwind takeoff?
 
Challenged said:
I'd just like to see more pilots acknowledge the risk involved, I think it makes it safer for all of us. I'd be more comfortable sharing the pattern with someone who respected the risks involved with GA than someone who didn't even pause to reflect on the possibility of a mid air.
Click to expand...
Why do you need to see "other" pilots acknowledge the risk involved? I bet you're a smart guy, but with a common smart guy failing - not realizing other people might be smart, as well. I can't give hard evidence, but I intuitively believe almost every pilot I know understands GA risks are greater than driving risks.

I think most every pilot you encounter in the pattern is aware that mid-airs are possible. You haven't discovered something new. If you want to be more comfortable in the pattern, then fly on weekdays, or other times when the pattern is empty. GA flying isn't safe - but the risks fall within my tolerance, as does SEL at night and single pilot IFR. But like other pilots who do the same, I understand and accept the higher level of risks.

I just don't believe any significant percentage of GA guys are boring through the sky in a state self delusion. . .I'd be happy with 100% of all accidents being pilot error - we'd know the airplanes aren't breaking and ATC isn't killing us, and the rest would be in our hands. Conversely, I'd hate to see 10% of fatals being pilot error - which I think would result from extreme automation, and the concomitant sucking of joy from the act of avating.
 
Challenged said:
I guess it's not really a black and white issue, but the nobody lives forever and I flew yesterday and didn't die attitudes seem like they would be at odds with a mentality that's conducive to maximizing safety. Maybe I'm just jealous that some of you can partake in GA without any concerns about safety, it's certainly something that I think about a good bit.
Click to expand...

As Socrates said, “The I examined life is not worth living.” (Which was his defense as he was put to death, but hey, it’s a good quote.)

I think all pilots think about safety. If you don’t, you don’t last too long as a pilot.

That said, one can’t dwell on it too much, either. Look at the largest killers of pilots and don’t do that stuff.

My CFI has lasted a long time in this game. He has a folder where he printed out all of the accidents for his aircraft types he owns for his school, and then he categorized those.

That gave him enough information to avoid and also teach to avoid doing very specific things in those aircraft.

Avoiding that stuff avoids well over 90% of accidents in those types, not just fatals. Somewhere north of 99% even.

The data is out there for almost anything anyone flies nowadays... read it and apply it and you’ll very likely have a long and happy time in aviation.

And if you don’t, some jackass can say that annoying line at your funeral, “He died doing what he loved.” And you can be ****ed in the afterlife about it, since nobody loves crashing. :)
 
Challenged said:
From The Killing Zone: "...a person is 10.9 times more likely to be involved in a fatal general aviation aircraft accident than in a fatal car accident."
Click to expand...


This varies dramatically with where one drives.

I drive on I-4 in Orlando. I’m much safer in the air.
 
Really, I think we'd all be a lot happier if you guys would just go ahead and agree with me.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top