Yes, with proper survival and redundant 406 signaling devices, I have no issues. The decision to pull the chute or not would depend on sea state, and the delineator I would likely use is 15-18 kts surface wind on waters more than 2 miles leeward of shore. That's equivalent to 2-3' seas. Another gauge to use is whitecaps. If white caps are large and ubiquitous, I feel coming down on a chute will be best. If the waters are reasonably placid, I feel the energy can be better managed in a full stall, nose high, landing. It's all about having the smoothest, lowest G deceleration. I may even use 20° flaps to get the maximum stall speed reduction with the highest nose up attitude short of stall, because I want to drag the tail under water first if I can.
The issue with coming down on the chute into the water is that the gear is an integral part of the design that makes CAPS work, and the water doesn't allow it to crush and absorb energy and the plane 'belly flops' at 600fpm. That has caused a man spine damage, however ultimately, he still survived an incapacitation situation he likely would not have without CAPS; he just would have experienced less injury had he been over a field let's say.