Malaysian Airliner missing?

[redtail]

Amazing that Malaysia did not search the Captain's house until a few hours ago. No word yet on what they found there. He seems to be the one on board who would best know how to turn off the ACARS and transponder, and then navigate in a peculiar way to evade radar.

That flight simulator in his home might be one of the best chances of figuring out if the captain was the culprit.

If he saved a file with a record of practicing diverting this flight as it approached Vietnamese ATC airspace, then he was the culprit for sure, and maybe the file will show where he practiced taking the plane after the initial diversion.

I have a whole bunch of saved .sit (situation) files in X-Plane. Engine out, Icing, control failures, thunderstorms, impossible turn, etc.

Sorry but I fail to see why a 30year veteran with 18000 hours would need to practice such a diversion on MSFS/X-Plane and then save such a devious plan on his home simulator.

 

[dans2992]

How in the world can an airplane fly across a country's airspace without a transponder and NOT raise suspicion? Civilian? military? some type of radar should have picked this up and at least caused a concern and tracked it. Even without the knowledge of a missing airliner, an unknown airplane in your airspace is cause for concern.

Radar in 3rd world countries is not up to US standards.

Even in Mexico, I think you could cross the border southbound _with_ a transponder on, and not be noticed or investigated.

 

[Norman]

So, we're back to hijacking just being a theory?

At this point everything is theory, but I'm sure it will be solved by post 777.

 

[Lindberg]

Based on being the loudest skeptic of foul play the only logical conclusion is Lindberg store the 777. Give it back man, not cool, not cool at all.

Sorry, I used my black hole generator to suck it through to the outer nebulas. It's a one-way trip.

 

[olasek]

This should nicely narrow search area if those two red lines are not too thick:

 

[wsuffa]

It could well have gotten to Somalia. Or Syria. Possibly in the air for 7-1/2 hours.

Other speculation: http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2uht6

 

[N801BH]

No matter how this all turns out....

The landscape and security surrounding aviation will most definately change in the near future...

 

[NoHeat]

I have a whole bunch of saved .sit (situation) files in X-Plane. Engine out, Icing, control failures, thunderstorms, impossible turn, etc.

Sorry but I fail to see why a 30year veteran with 18000 hours would need to practice such a diversion on MSFS/X-Plane and then save such a devious plan on his home simulator.

Needs? No, he doesn't need to practice a flight on a simulator. You are entirely correct.

But why does he have the impressive home simulator, then? It is not because of any need at all. But presumably he uses it occasionally, anyway. And he is an obvious suspect for the crime because he could fly the plane, navigate, turn off the transponder, and everything.

So if you were the police investigating this crime, and you were asked to search his house, would you just say, nah, I'm going to bother to see what's there?

 

[ClimbnSink]

Needs? No, he doesn't need to practice a flight on a simulator. You are entirely correct.

But why does he have the impressive home simulator, then? It is not because of any need at all. But presumably he uses it occasionally, anyway. And he is an obvious suspect for the crime because he could fly the plane, navigate, turn off the transponder, and everything.

So if you were the police investigating this crime, and you were asked to search his house, would you just say, nah, I'm going to bother to see what's there?

Perhaps the next leg to be flown is on the guys home sim...

 

[redtail]

Needs? No, he doesn't need to practice a flight on a simulator. You are entirely correct.

But why does he have the impressive home simulator, then? It is not because of any need at all. But presumably he uses it occasionally, anyway. And he is an obvious suspect for the crime because he could fly the plane, navigate, turn off the transponder, and everything.

So if you were the police investigating this crime, and you were asked to search his house, would you just say, nah, I'm going to bother to see what's there?

No, I'd leave no stone unturned.

All I'm saying is, I doubt they'll find any "saved practice flights" that would indicate he was practicing to steal the real plane and land it in Kazakhstan, unless they save such flights themselves in order to use him as a scapegoat!

We need answers... NOW and someone to blame because we can't except the fact that we have no answers. We can't except that this could be nothing but a catastrophic failure of an advanced machine, which ended in tragedy.

Now they're calling the final transmission (alright goodnight) a game changer. Hell I say good night, good day, Thank you, etc. on most flights.


One more thing. As someone who has been into PCs and flight simulators for many years, I can tell you. A big part of the "impressive home simulator" hobby is building and tweaking the system as much if not more than actually flying it.

 

[Dav8or]

A triple seven is so far above what is needed to deliver a nuclear weapon that the thought is ludicrous. I have worked in the defense industry and had the clearances, but all you need is an internet search to tell you that a Toyota pickup truck would be an entirely adequate delivery vehicle as, probably, would a 182.

There is the little matter of how to detonate a stolen weapon, too. You don't just hit it on the nose with a hammer. Making your own weapon also pushes the limits of feasibility.

As far as a dirty bomb is concerned, you again don't need a triple seven. To make a big dirty bomb the main problem is probably obtaining a large quantity of radioactive material without turning yourself into a crispy critter in the process, not coming up with a delivery mechanism.

But all that is just logical analysis. Logic may not apply here.

I have no theory on the situation, but was interested to hear about the airplane staying on airways and tracking to waypoints on its way to the west. Even if a bad guy had the expertise or could force the pilots to program the FMS, why would he want to fly this way?

You're missing a few points. Why a 777 and not a pick up, or 182? Speed and range. Also you're assuming they are trying to transport a stolen modern nuke. What if they built it themselves from scratch using 1940's tech? How big were the first atom bombs? I recall they needed a B-29 in those days.

 

[Fearless Tower]

We need answers... NOW and someone to blame because we can't except the fact that we have no answers. We can't except that this could be nothing but a catastrophic failure of an advanced machine, which ended in tragedy.

You're right. We need to have a blamestorming session!

http://www.tvspots.tv/video/53353/DIRECTV--BLAMESTORMING

 

[Art VanDelay]

A fire in the electronics bay wouldn't have allowed the flight to go another 4-5 hours, IMO.

It very easily could have considering that bay is right beneath the cockpit floor and the crew was overcome by smoke as the aircraft continued on in heading select mode.

 

[Midpoint]

This is just a thought but if they disappeared this plane. Could they potentially do the same to another 777 between ATC contacts and replace it with MH370 changing the transponder to look like whatever flight it replaced. Then they'd have a nice easy ride into whatever city they are targeting. I dunno if this is even possible, it's just a thought I had.

 

[weilke]

It very easily could have considering that bay is right beneath the cockpit floor and the crew was overcome by smoke as the aircraft continued on in heading select mode.

It would also be compatible with the zoom climb and then oddball low cruise altitude.

I wouldn't make too much out of the course the plane took, the world is full of GPS checkpoints, a plane flying a random course is going to hit some of them.

I hope they find the plane at some point. Lots of ground water to cover.

 

[us AAirways]

It very easily could have considering that bay is right beneath the cockpit floor and the crew was overcome by smoke as the aircraft continued on in heading select mode.

Can the pilots get into the bay and put out a fire?

Isn't fl450 the coffin corner? A few knots either way and they lose control of the plane? Makes me think it was an experienced pilot (i.e one of the crew) to continue on for five hrs??

 

[N747JB]

It very easily could have considering that bay is right beneath the cockpit floor and the crew was overcome by smoke as the aircraft continued on in heading select mode.

If there was enough smoke to overcome the crew, it would seem that they would have time to call in a mayday, put on masks and smoke goggles, or something. it would seem with a cockpit or avionics bay fire, the plane would come down in less than 4 hours. No avionics=no autopilot.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

An airplane. That might or might not have been this airplane.

According to the prime minister's briefing that was posted here, they have used some additional data to verify that it was MH370.

 

[Art VanDelay]

Can the pilots get into the bay and put out a fire?

Isn't fl450 the coffin corner? A few knots either way and they lose control of the plane? Makes me think it was an experienced pilot (i.e one of the crew) to continue on for five hrs??

We had a hatch in the floor right in front of the 1L boarding door with a ladder that goes down into that compartment. It's quite a big area you can almost stand up in some parts. Problem is if there was a fire in there as soon as you open the hatch you very well might be flooding the whole forward portion of the pax cabin with fumes and smoke.

As I said in an earlier post max altitude for the triple 7 is 43,100 and you can't climb to it till you've burned off a good bit of fuel.

 

[Midpoint]

It could well have gotten to Somalia. Or Syria. Possibly in the air for 7-1/2 hours.

Other speculation: http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2uht6

From that speculation, if true I don't see how it could be anyone other than the flight crew. Also just heard on CNN that the ASCARs was turned off first, then the last call "alright goodnight" was made then transponder shut off. Mean they heard from "someone" after that system was shut down.

Check this out!
Following up on this theory(http://www.reddit.com/r/news/comments/20dopw/comprehensive_timeline_malaysia_airlines_flight/cg2l4ne), I went back to FlightRadar24 to see if there were any flights near when the last contact with MH370 was at 0215 and heading NW.
What I found is there was a Singapore Airlines Flight (SQ68) which had departed SIN and was bound for BCN. I got the flight track data from FlightAware and plotted it on Google Earth.
Here's what I found:
MH370 & SQ68 Link Up
It looks like if MH370 turned after lost contact at 0130 and followed the track back over Malaysia and along the way points previously discussed, it would be in the position shown at 0215, which is 200NM NW of Penang.
This position is only about 30NM behind the 0215 position of SQ68 which is also a 777.
If MH370 followed SQ68 along its path NW over India (as I had speculated it did previously), after 5 hours, SQ68 is indeed over Pakistan.
Across Bay of Bengal
Across India to Pakistan
Five hours from last known 0215 position
So, by closely following SQ68 at a similar altitude and speed, it's likely that any Indian radar operator would not notice or question two closely placed primary radar returns as long as he had the expected squawk from SQ68.

 

[Matthew]

Since it seems like it was under control by someone in the cockpit, here are a couple scenarios:

1) One, or both, of the flight crew was in on this. Just too many coincidences with the timing of the xponder signal loss, course change between ATC handoffs, no comms, ...

2) Someone broke into the cockpit at just the right time and turned off the xponder, then took over.

3) Something happened, electrically, that killed the xponder at just the right time. Flight crew was disoriented, whatever, and kept flying on some course (CO? Hypoxia?)

If #1, it could have landed safely. Pax could have been told there was a weather diversion or whatever. Or the crew might have just taken their time, thinking about it, before dumping it in the ocean. If they did land safely, it would have to be somewhere with no cell service. Even if all pax were killed, at the first sign of trouble someone would have turned on their cell and a network somewhere might have seen it when it got in range - maybe. It probably crashed.

If #2, it might have landed safely. The pax would have had to be subdued somehow, maybe with a bomb threat. On a US flight, pax probably would have fought back, they have before. Since it flew 5-7 hrs, that's not likely, unless the pax regained control and flew it around until it ran out of gas. Even if the pax hadn't fought back, the hijackers might have crashed it in the ocean or while trying to land. It probably crashed.

If #3, it probably crashed.

My guess: it probably crashed. But, it's just a guess. Maybe we'll find out someday.

 

[Lindberg]

You're missing a few points. Why a 777 and not a pick up, or 182? Speed and range. Also you're assuming they are trying to transport a stolen modern nuke. What if they built it themselves from scratch using 1940's tech? How big were the first atom bombs? I recall they needed a B-29 in those days.

They were about 10,000 lbs., killed a few 100k people, and were very complicated. It'd be far easier and likely more effective to park a few dozen fertilizer bombs outside of a few big shopping malls. We want to believe all these fantasies about sophisticated terrorists and brilliant plots because the reality that terrorism is easy and we're all vulnerable is unpleasant. Even if this was terrorism, the most likely plan was a 9/11-type crash somewhere.

 

[Art VanDelay]

If there was enough smoke to overcome the crew, it would seem that they would have time to call in a mayday, put on masks and smoke goggles, or something. it would seem with a cockpit or avionics bay fire, the plane would come down in less than 4 hours. No avionics=no autopilot.

Not if the fire took out the comm radio which is right down there next to the transponder. I'm sure they could have got masks and googles on but I've heard of electrical fires where the smoke was so thick you couldn't even see the EFIS panel. The supplemental oxygen only last for so long - especially when you're gulping it down as in an emergency.

My theory is not as sexy as all the other conspiracy theories so I can see why it meets with resistance.

 

[nddons]

Not if the fire took out the comm radio which is right down there next to the transponder. I'm sure they could have got masks and googles on but I've heard of electrical fires where the smoke was so thick you couldn't even see the EFIS panel. The supplemental oxygen only last for so long - especially when you're gulping it down as in an emergency.

My theory is not as sexy as all the other conspiracy theories so I can see why it meets with resistance.

We're all ghost writers for a new Tom Clancy novel, Bart. You're being a killjoy.

 

[Lindberg]

According to the prime minister's briefing that was posted here, they have used some additional data to verify that it was MH370.

 

[Lindberg]

Not if the fire took out the comm radio which is right down there next to the transponder. I'm sure they could have got masks and googles on but I've heard of electrical fires where the smoke was so thick you couldn't even see the EFIS panel. The supplemental oxygen only last for so long - especially when you're gulping it down as in an emergency.

What if the flight crew was asleep? It wouldn't be the first time it happened. And their last transmission was "good night".... The folks in the back might not have known anything was wrong until it was way too late.

My theory is not as sexy as all the other conspiracy theories so I can see why it meets with resistance.

It'd be sexier if you said the fire could have been started by aliens.

 

[Fearless Tower]

I knew it. I speculated a couple pages back that Baghdad Bob took a job with the Malaysian govt

 

[Art VanDelay]

Baghdad Bob - love that guy ! Why doesn't Oprah do a "Where Are They Now" special on him ?

 

[redtail]

Not if the fire took out the comm radio which is right down there next to the transponder. I'm sure they could have got masks and googles on but I've heard of electrical fires where the smoke was so thick you couldn't even see the EFIS panel. The supplemental oxygen only last for so long - especially when you're gulping it down as in an emergency.

My theory is not as sexy as all the other conspiracy theories so I can see why it meets with resistance.

Thank you!

 

[tinerj]

If you cannot figure out what happened blame the pilot.

 

[Sac Arrow]

I think I've figured it out.

Do a geographic IP trace on Henning's posts beginning 6 hours after the plane disappeared and there is where you will find it.

 

[Sleepingsquirrel]

A triple seven is so far above what is needed to deliver a nuclear weapon that the thought is ludicrous. I have worked in the defense industry and had the clearances, but all you need is an internet search to tell you that a Toyota pickup truck would be an entirely adequate delivery vehicle as, probably, would a 182.

There is the little matter of how to detonate a stolen weapon, too. You don't just hit it on the nose with a hammer. Making your own weapon also pushes the limits of feasibility.

As far as a dirty bomb is concerned, you again don't need a triple seven. To make a big dirty bomb the main problem is probably obtaining a large quantity of radioactive material without turning yourself into a crispy critter in the process, not coming up with a delivery mechanism.

But all that is just logical analysis. Logic may not apply here.

I have no theory on the situation, but was interested to hear about the airplane staying on airways and tracking to waypoints on its way to the west. Even if a bad guy had the expertise or could force the pilots to program the FMS, why would he want to fly this way?

Not withstanding any level of sophistication, how about a 777 daisy cutter?

 

[Sac Arrow]

If Jihad Holdings LLC buys a 727 does everyone involved get sick and die? Fall down the stairs? Perish in suspicious house fires? I don't subscribe competence to gov'ts, but some things are obvious. Post 9/11 they were out looking up Pawnee glider tugs, no doubt the airplane market is watched.

The 911 hijackers had no intention of landing the planes someplace and returning them back to service.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

It very easily could have considering that bay is right beneath the cockpit floor and the crew was overcome by smoke as the aircraft continued on in heading select mode.

So how would a fire in the avionics bay strong enough to knock out the radios and transponder and disable the crew not also take out the autopilot?

 

[redtail]

So how would a fire in the avionics bay strong enough to knock out the radios and transponder and disable the crew not also take out the autopilot?

Maybe it did but not at the same time. Different electrical buses.

 

[Silvaire]

This should nicely narrow search area if those two red lines are not too thick:

It would seem unlikely they could have been on the northern arc without somebody seeing them, there are an awful lot of borders there.

The southern arc makes more sense regarding the complete disappearance of a widebody airliner.

 

[Art VanDelay]

So how would a fire in the avionics bay strong enough to knock out the radios and transponder and disable the crew not also take out the autopilot?

Any fireman will tell you the nature and course of an electrical fire is not something that can be accurately forecast. Some systems are catastrophically affected while others are relatively unscathed.

 

[redtail]

Any fireman will tell you the nature and course of an electrical fire is not something that can be accurately forecast. Some systems are catastrophically affected while others are relatively unscathed.

Although not the same as an airliner, during Hurricane Sandy we lost all six 13KV feeders from two different suppliers (CON-ED & PSE&G), supplying high voltage buses and tie breakers!
Water destroyed substations which lead to a fairly rapid loss of power in just a matter of minutes.

Systems started shutting down but not all at once. We can run the facility on just one feeder at a reduced capacity. But with the loss of all six, all of our redundancy was gone that quick!

Electricity doesn't like fire or water

 

[Art VanDelay]

It would seem unlikely they could have been on the northern arc without somebody seeing them, there are an awful lot of borders there.

The southern arc makes more sense regarding the complete disappearance of a widebody airliner.

EXACTLY !!! I don't want think that we spent all those billions of dollars on stealth technology only to find out that something the size and radar cross section of a Boeing 777 could penetrate a border by merely turning off it's transponder. CNN is nuts to even suggest this but then again it makes for great intrigue !

 

[ClimbnSink]

EXACTLY !!! I don't want think that we spent all those billions of dollars on stealth technology only to find out that something the size and radar cross section of a Boeing 777 could penetrate a border by merely turning off it's transponder. CNN is nuts to even suggest this but then again it makes for great intrigue !

On the other hand in the middle of the Cold War you can land a 172 in Red Square. Could be embarrassing depending on where they find it.