WX classroom time

[jdwatson]

Greetings !

I'm sitting in my office watching the approach of the cold front inch it's way across the east coast. So, I got to thinking about how this is a great near wintertime weather system. Look at the attached prog-charts, how would you plan to go from RDU to POU (or elsewhere) ?

Wintertime weather gives me fits. The fear of any icing is untamed in me.

 

[EdFred]

I'd be scud runnin'.
Airmet Zulu to 15000 with OVC at 4000 BKN at 2500 S of here.

 

[gismo]

Greetings !

I'm sitting in my office watching the approach of the cold front inch it's way across the east coast. So, I got to thinking about how this is a great near wintertime weather system. Look at the attached prog-charts, how would you plan to go from RDU to POU (or elsewhere) ?

Wintertime weather gives me fits. The fear of any icing is untamed in me.

I'd probably wait a day or two if I could. On the backside of that front is bound to be some serious headwinds chances are it would be quite bumpy and slow. It looks to me that around Wed afternoon or Thurs morning you'd be well behind the front yet well ahead of the big low coming in behind.

 

[Richard]

I agree exactly with Lance. I had to look up POU to see where it was but I see the intended route roughly parallels the frontal wx. While scudding may be an option it doesn't leave much for Plan B. Also, aren't there mountains and associated wx paralleling the route?

Waiting a couple days is you only viable option otherwise you'll be suckered no matter which way you go.

Can you find a sim with real time wx?

 

[jdwatson]

Richard,
If my SIM machine was up and running I would do it. I would stay east of the front and fly as fast as I could to KPOU (Poughkeepsie, NY). I'd trade some bumps and low ceilings for possible icing. Of course, easy for me since I'm sitting at a desk.

The front is getting close to KRDU (Raleigh, NC), the gusts and bands of rain have gone from warm & gentle to gusty and forceful. In our T206H, POU is 4 hours with favorable winds. My one and only trip there in a 172RG, I stopped at KFDK (Frederick, MD). The prog-charts from this morning would had me shooting the ILS at both FDK and POU, but the winds were tame.

Now is a different story:

• KFDK 292220Z AUTO 15014KT 10SM -RA BKN030 OVC035 18/14 A2974 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND SW
• KPOU 292153Z AUTO 14011G18KT 10SM BKN023 OVC029 17/13 A3000 RMK AO2 RAB26E41 SLP157 P0000 T01670128 TSNO
• KRDU 292151Z 17019G28KT 10SM -RA FEW006 BKN013 OVC020 19/18 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 17032/2118 SLP089 RAE12 P0001 T01940178 VISNO RWY 23R $

Leaving this morning would have been doable... now, I'll wait 2 days.

 

[Richard]

...fly as fast as I could to KPOU (Poughkeepsie, NY).

racing the wx on a north/south track is always more iffier than on a east/west track.

I'd trade some bumps and low ceilings for possible icing. Of course, easy for me since I'm sitting at a desk.

Heck yeah it's easier behind a desk. It sure beats getting half way and getting a bad go decision rubbed in you face as you watch your life flash before your eyes.

The front is getting close to KRDU (Raleigh, NC), the gusts and bands of rain have gone from warm & gentle to gusty and forceful.

The wx at RDU would matter only on take off, after that it doesn't matter except to portend the crap you're in for as you progress on your flight.

In our T206H, POU is 4 hours with favorable winds. My one and only trip there in a 172RG, I stopped at KFDK (Frederick, MD). The prog-charts from this morning would had me shooting the ILS at both FDK and POU, but the winds were tame.

4 hours in a 206and with favorable winds? According ta Airnav it's a 414 nm flight. And what if the wx was worse than forecast or the line starts to move faster than predicted? It's already pretty iffy. You're already east of the line as you head north. Your destination goes blo mins and FZ begins to lower. You better have floats on that 206, otherwise you are SOL. My luck there would be a fast moving unforecast artic blast coming in with an occluded line to the south and I'd lose the race to my destination.

Now is a different story:

• KFDK 292220Z AUTO 15014KT 10SM -RA BKN030 OVC035 18/14 A2974 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND SW
• KPOU 292153Z AUTO 14011G18KT 10SM BKN023 OVC029 17/13 A3000 RMK AO2 RAB26E41 SLP157 P0000 T01670128 TSNO
• KRDU 292151Z 17019G28KT 10SM -RA FEW006 BKN013 OVC020 19/18 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 17032/2118 SLP089 RAE12 P0001 T01940178 VISNO RWY 23R $

Leaving this morning would have been doable... now, I'll wait 2 days.

It looks like embedded cells to the north. You'd be busier than a one armed paper hanger with tall ceilings.

 

[Bones]

.....Never Get In A Hurry.......

 

[jdwatson]

Hurry ? Not in your typical GA aircraft.

For me, I've been using the weather changes as planning exercises while I'm not flying. It's always interesting to me to hear how other pilots analyze the risk/reward & etc.