Would You Make this Flight?

S

SkyBound

Filing Flight Plan
Joined
Oct 18, 2017
Messages
8
Display Name
Display name:
SkyBound
Hello all! Just looking for some advice on making a flight from KSPG-KMAC-KSPG. Leaving Friday, returning Sunday.

A little background: I'm a PPL (no instrument) with about 250 hours and the flight will be done in a G1000 C172.

Right now I'm on the fence about making the flight that I've been looking forward to for quite some time (I know I know, why Macon???). The flight up looks to be good VFR with only some brisk winds on departure. I'm struggling with the return leg though and I'm not sure if my desire to make the flight is clouding my judgement.

It looks like a front is moving through the area early next week and its bringing both rain and low clouds that may start to trickle in Sunday morning. My fear is that I'm going to predict the weather wrong Sunday morning and be stuck in Macon. Since its not the typical afternoon storm that I could wait out, its a front that might keep me down for 2 days or more.

Anyway, I wont get too much into all the different resources I've gone over, but just curious if anyone has some advice or things I should look at and weigh heavily over other things.

Thanks!
 
Saturday and Sunday from the National Weather Service.

48-Hour Period Starting:



My reading of the above:

Winds not a problem.
Temperature dewpoint spread close to zero on Sunday morning. Be prepared to have a cup of coffee before launching.
Substantial clouds during the day Sunday. Plan on staying under them BUT this weather tool does not indicate the altitude of the cloud bases - this could be a problem.
Minor rain showers during the day Sunday. See comment about cloud bases.
Get down by 8pm - thunderstorm potential after that.

-Skip
 
Skip, what weather site is are the above tapes from?
 
Skip Miller said:
Saturday and Sunday from the National Weather Service.

48-Hour Period Starting:



My reading of the above:

Winds not a problem.
Temperature dewpoint spread close to zero on Sunday morning. Be prepared to have a cup of coffee before launching.
Substantial clouds during the day Sunday. Plan on staying under them BUT this weather tool does not indicate the altitude of the cloud bases - this could be a problem.
Minor rain showers during the day Sunday. See comment about cloud bases.
Get down by 8pm - thunderstorm potential after that.

-Skip
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response. I checked a few other areas along the route, primarily Gainesville which looks to be the highest activity area for developing storms. Looks like probably more than I'd want to deal with:

Plotter.php


In regards to ceiling height I've been checking this as well but the Sunday images haven't really come out yet. But as you mentioned the temp and dewpoint doesn't give me too much hope:

capture1.png
 
Any chance you can bring a CFII with you? Weather doesn't look too nasty other than some clouds. Might be a good time to log some actual if you fly early Sunday.

Later Sunday should be okay in terms of CIGS but I suspect you'll have some pop-up T-Storms out ahead of the front. It would be a bumpy ride after the CIGS lift for sure but should be flyable.
 
My uneducated 2 cents- if you are on some sort of timeline (ie. you wouldn't be ok waiting a day or more to head home) and the fact you don't have your IR is a recipe for trouble.

I have been there- the desire to get going is just too great.

Better to make alternative plans now. Believe me I know how disappointing it is. A similar situation I had years ago caused me to scare myself, take my biggest hiatus from flying, and swear to myself I will never use an airplane to get anywhere on any type of schedule without getting my IR. Even after getting my IR there is still plenty of times when I have to wait things out, but at least gives me some more options.

So if you can wait a day or 2 without missing work or screwing up your life, then definitely do it. You may get home on time, you may not. Otherwise drive.

"Time to spare, go by air"
 
Last edited:
labbadabba said:
Any chance you can bring a CFII with you? Weather doesn't look too nasty other than some clouds. Might be a good time to log some actual if you fly early Sunday.

Later Sunday should be okay in terms of CIGS but I suspect you'll have some pop-up T-Storms out ahead of the front. It would be a bumpy ride after the CIGS lift for sure but should be flyable.
Click to expand...

I wish! I'm actually trying to knock out my instrument rating, and this would be a great time to get some actual. Unfortunately my primary instructor is out of town himself and everyone else has students through the weekend.

neilw2 said:
My uneducated 2 cents- if you are on some sort of timeline (ie. you wouldn't be ok waiting a day or more to head home) and the fact you don't have your IR is a recipe for trouble.

I have been there- the desire to get going is just too great.

Better to make alternative plans now. Believe me I know how disappointing it is. A similar situation I had caused me to scare myself, take my biggest hiatus from flying, and swear to myself I will never use an airplane to get anywhere on any type of schedule without getting my IR. Even after getting my IR there is still plenty of times when I have to wait things out, but at least gives me some more options.

So if you can wait a day or 2 without missing work or screwing up your life, then definitely do it. You may get home on time, you may not. Otherwise drive.

"Time to spare, go by air"
Click to expand...

Yea that's exactly what I'm feeling right now. The good thing is I figured there was a high chance of this happening so I arranged to ride up with some friends a month or so ago. So on the bright side Friday morning (not that much will probably change), I can check the weather one last time and if it doesn't look good I can always hop in the car with them.

Unfortunately though I'll be renting the plane, so I'm sure I'd ruffle some feathers if I got stuck for a couple days as its a popular plane in the training fleet. If it were just an afternoon shower and I could just finish later in the day or early next morning I think it would be doable. But the fact that it looks like the clouds/precip will linger for a few days has me thinking that wont be an option.
 
See if you can find a CFI in Macon for Sunday and include a one way ticket or rental car back for him/her? Probably getting late though.
 
Not sure how much advance notice you need to give the rental place and your friends that you intend to ride with but you might consider waiting a day and making a final decision, or even better yet make a decision on Friday morning. The closer you are to the time of your departure when you make a go/no-go decision the more accurate the forecast should be.

On the surface, I'd say the return trip appears doable but there is potential for things not to go well. Be willing to sit and wait for things to improve.
 
I would not. I have definitely had the same predicament and anytime you're on a time line and weather is an iffy variable then I don't think it's worth the potential risk and inconvenience of getting stuck somewhere, especially if you do not have an instrument rating. You don't want to end up in some scenario. Always would rather be on the ground and wish you were in the air than the other way around

neilw2 said:
My uneducated 2 cents- if you are on some sort of timeline (ie. you wouldn't be ok waiting a day or more to head home) and the fact you don't have your IR is a recipe for trouble.

I have been there- the desire to get going is just too great.

Better to make alternative plans now.
Click to expand...
Agree
 
The cold front doesn't seem anywhere near Florida or Jah-jah on Sunday. Cold fronts cause trouble on the spot, not too far in advance. The winds might start picking up but the front itself won't cause any low ceilings until it hits, at which point you might be looking at CB. Though cold fronts don't usually have low ceilings for that reason.
Anyway, I would wait a day or two for a slightly better forecast before committing.
And even if you see a green ceiling on the MOS graph, that's not the end of the world, that is still a nice VFR day. Remember, VFR does not necessarily translate into SKC. OVC050 is also VFR. :)
Hoping that the weather works out for you and you have a nice trip!
 
Skip Miller said:
Saturday and Sunday from the National Weather Service.
<cool multi-day charts>
My reading of the above:
-Skip
Click to expand...

I've poked around at the National Weather Service site and Aviation Weather and can't find the charts you posted. Can you provide a URL to get me to the site? Those charts are great!

Thank you.

Doug
 
forecast.weather.gov

Enter zip code or city in the local forecast search box. Select tabular format from the options.
 
N659HB said:
forecast.weather.gov

Enter zip code or city in the local forecast search box. Select tabular format from the options.
Click to expand...

Found it. I used the following process: Forecast dropdown, select 000Local, enter zip in forecast, drop to the lower right side of the page and find the 'Hourly Weather Forecast' chart, then click the image to get to the chart.

I couldn't find anything that looked like 'options' but your pointer got me where I needed to go. Thank you so very much!
 
This summer my wife & I needed to be in Lewisburg, PA to attend a graveside service - same distance as your proposed trip. It would have been a perfect trip to take the plane: up Saturday morning, back Sunday. Like you I saw the weather picture didn't favor it and come decision time, a look out the window that morning convinced me today was not the day to fly. As we drove the 6 1/2 hours, I kept looking up at the low, sloppy wet deck thinking (and thanking) God I'm glad I have a big yellow streak.
 
iflyvfr said:
This summer my wife & I needed to be in Lewisburg, PA to attend a graveside service - same distance as your proposed trip. It would have been a perfect trip to take the plane: up Saturday morning, back Sunday. Like you I saw the weather picture didn't favor it and come decision time, a look out the window that morning convinced me today was not the day to fly. As we drove the 6 1/2 hours, I kept looking up at the low, sloppy wet deck thinking (and thanking) God I'm glad I have a big yellow streak.
Click to expand...
Made a similar decision on a return trip once. Hearing the tornado warnings on the radio as I drove home were somewhat satisfying. Sorta made up for the times I canceled flights in what turned out to be good weather...
 
In general, if I feel the need to second guess myself I don't make the flight. We don't HAVE to fly.
 
Sunday is not looking good for VFR (although I find these charts are usually conservatively wrong when looking past day 2):

upload_2017-10-19_10-20-13.png
 
tawood said:
Sunday is not looking good for VFR (although I find these charts are usually conservatively wrong when looking past day 2):

View attachment 57221
Click to expand...

I saw that this morning too, doesn't look too good. Although it seems like the rain chances and generic hourly weather forecasts are improving slightly. Gonna make my final no go decision tomorrow morning. As if now its not looking likely and I got a seat waiting for me in a car, so no pressure.
 
tawood said:
Sunday is not looking good for VFR (although I find these charts are usually conservatively wrong when looking past day 2):

View attachment 57221
Click to expand...
Morning is not looking great for VFR, agreed.
However, as on any standard day, the deck will start lifting as the day progresses. The MOS CIG forecast for noon and afternoon shows that trend nicely.
If you are comfortable flying under a 3000ft ceiling, it's not a problem. However, the MOS VIS forecast isn't out yet for Sunday daytime (only 6am) so if it was me flying, I'd wait for that to come out to help with my decision. I'd take a 2,000' ceiling with unlimited visibility over a 10,000' ceiling with 3mi visibility.
 
Skip Miller said:
Saturday and Sunday from the National Weather Service.

48-Hour Period Starting:

Plan on staying under them BUT this weather tool does not indicate the altitude of the cloud bases - this could be a problem.
Minor rain showers during the day Sunday. See comment about cloud bases.
Get down by 8pm - thunderstorm potential after that.

-Skip
Click to expand...
Assuming the written test is accurate, and stable conditions, bases can be calculated with...(not trying to be snarky with the response, just cut and paste from google...)

Find the difference between the surface temperature and the dew point. This value is known as the "spread". Divide the spread by 4.4 (if temperatures are in °F) or 2.5 (if temperatures are in °C), then multiply by 1000. This will give you cloud base in feet above ground level.
 
I won't comment on the decision part of it. This thread is already loaded with good advice there.

I'll only toss out another source that I use for looking at the weather. To me it's graphically easy to look at quickly. I'm not sure of the source of the data but I have found it to be pretty reliable. It's updated regularly throughout each day.

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
 
arkvet said:
I won't comment on the decision part of it. This thread is already loaded with good advice there.

I'll only toss out another source that I use for looking at the weather. To me it's graphically easy to look at quickly. I'm not sure of the source of the data but I have found it to be pretty reliable. It's updated regularly throughout each day.

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
Click to expand...
Looks like the data source is the National Weather Service...which would make it RUC data I believe.
 
Yeah great thread. My attitude is, if there's any question at all about the return trip, I ask myself if I'm willing to rent a car home (or train, or some other form) and fetch the airplane later. If the answer is no, I don't go.
 
George Mohr said:
Yeah great thread. My attitude is, if there's any question at all about the return trip, I ask myself if I'm willing to rent a car home (or train, or some other form) and fetch the airplane later. If the answer is no, I don't go.
Click to expand...

That's a great way to look at it. If you feel you have to get back and theres no other option I wouldn't risk it. Such is life being a lowly renter where you might be charged for time lost if you keep the plane past your allotted slot. Makes the get-there-itis feeling just a little stronger.
 
So, end up going?
 
GeorgeC said:
So, end up going?
Click to expand...

Nope! I wasn't entirely confident in the weather forecast and any "back up" plans we're too difficult and costly to rely on. In the end it worked out great though. Met some awesome people who want me to take them up for rides in a couple weeks.

I haven't done a weather briefing today but looking out the car window in lower GA, ceilings look about 2000ft broken. I think I would've been able to squeeze through and get on top, but it looks to be building. So not as bad as I thought it'd be, but certainly not the best weather.

2UU7ybP.jpg

IUY7k
 
Last edited:
SkyBound said:
Nope! I wasn't entirely confident in the weather forecast and any "back up" plans we're too difficult and costly to rely on. In the end it worked out great though. Met some awesome people who want me to take them up for rides in a couple weeks.

I haven't done a weather briefing today but looking out the car window in lower GA, ceilings look about 2000ft broken. I think I would've been able to squeeze through and get on top, but it looks to be building. So not as bad as I thought it'd be, but certainly not the best weather.
2UU7ybP.jpg

IUY7k
Click to expand...

SkyBound sits in the car looking at the clouds and thinks, maybe I should spring for that instrument rating afterall...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top