Would you Go?

spiderweb

spiderweb

Final Approach
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Feb 22, 2005
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Display name:
Ben
Friday, I can leave any time after 12 noon.

KFDK-KFRG

C172/G G1000 w/ stormscope and wx uplink.

IFR.

Return has some flexibility. I can leave KFRG any time after 12 noon on Sunday, or all day Monday.

So, Go no-Go? :)
 
Still a little early w/ the forecasts, but what I see on the NAM and GFS models wouldn't discourage me. I think the earlier you could get out on Friday the better - and you've got a lot of flexibility coming back.

Remember that I have a turbocharged aircraft so I can go higher.

What's your risk tolerance for the "shark" route off-shore? If you're willing, that would open some options that a strict inland route might not have.
 
EdFred said:
This is a joke, right?
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No. I am really looking for the more experienced to offer their opinion. I've flown many times near convective weather, but I am interested to get different views on this.
 
wsuffa said:
What's your risk tolerance for the "shark" route off-shore? If you're willing, that would open some options that a strict inland route might not have.
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I was thinking about that. I would feel fine, as long as my aircraft is feeling fine, too!
 
EdFred said:
This is a joke, right?
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The other concern is passenger comfort in unstable air. The last time I flew with my wife was a bumpy summer day. I had to divert and land, and she threw up seconds after the prop stopped.
 
A go/no-go being made 48 hours in advance? Since when do the weather guys get it right 6 hours in advance, let alone 48.
 
EdFred said:
A go/no-go being made 48 hours in advance? Since when do the weather guys get it right 6 hours in advance, let alone 48.
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I was thinking the same thing. I'm pretty green, but I generally don't make that decision until the night before...more often the morning of. Hoping that'll change as I become a little more comfortable. Just my 1 1/2 cents
 
Earlier is better given that the flaming ball of gas in the sky dumps a lot of energy into the atmosphere making for a bumpy ride in the afternoons and early evenings.

The XM can give you some good looks at what's going on 50 miles ahead so you can land and wait if you need to. Unless you have lightning detection onboard (real-time) you must have the discipline to ignore the XM WX close to you - the data is too old to be of tactical use. The Mark 1 Mod 0 eyeball is your best tactical weapon if you don't have 'spherics. Be willing to manuever laterally and vertically to maintain VFR even when on an IFR plan.

Oh, and don't be afraid to tell ATC what you need, and say "unable" if they want you to go somewhere you don't think it's safe to go.
 
spiderweb said:
I was thinking about that. I would feel fine, as long as my aircraft is feeling fine, too!
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I've done the shark route (V308) at 17,000 without a problem, other than being given a lower altitude near MANTA to clear arrivals into JFK. That goes pretty far east for you, I'd look a V44 as an alternate.
 
wsuffa said:
I've done the shark route (V308) at 17,000 without a problem, other than being given a lower altitude near MANTA to clear arrivals into JFK. That goes pretty far east for you, I'd look a V44 as an alternate.
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My guess is he's not going to be pushing the flight levels in his 172. :wink2: In terms of routing, V1/16 is something he might get, which keeps the over-water time to a minimum. I don't have anything to offer in terms of experience, except that I've already learned to be cautious flying up the coast on a summer afternoon. The only trouble I ever had with thunderstorms was in fairly quiet airspace, so I had plenty of help from ATC - New York controllers are great, but they won't necessarily have much time to spare for you.
 
brentee said:
I was thinking the same thing. I'm pretty green, but I generally don't make that decision until the night before...more often the morning of. Hoping that'll change as I become a little more comfortable. Just my 1 1/2 cents
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Guys.

Of course I am not making my decision now. I am just interested in how seasoned IFR pilots predict these things.

I should have said, "Do you think this will be a Go or No-Go?"
 
spiderweb said:
"Do you think this will be a Go or No-Go?"
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It's a maybe. ;)

Surface guesses on either side of Friday noon:

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So, that tells us... Nothing useful, at this point. It might suck, or it might not.

The only other tool that ever seems to be worth a crap this far out is USAirNet. Right now, for KFDK at 2:00 PM local on Friday they're calling for 6SM HZ, broken ceiling >12,000 feet, 12% chance of precip and 19% chance of TSRA. Also, 3-knot winds and mid-90's temps... Go high and keep your wife cool and comfy. Hopefully the clouds will keep the thermals from getting too strong.

Anyway, at 5 PM (the next forecast time) they're calling for P6SM, clear below 12,000 but 50% chance of precip and 63% chance of TSRA, with relatively high chances for both for the remainder of Friday and Saturday (they only forecast 72 hours out, so nothing for your return yet).

At KFRG Friday, much nicer temps, vis and clouds OK but steadily increasing chance of precip and TSRA throughout the day. 17% and 18% respectively at 11 AM and 2 PM, up to 29% and 44% at 5 PM and 8 PM.

En route, it looks like Wings (KLOM) is about halfway, and also calling for good weather at 2 PM with 10%/16% chances, and at 5 and 8 it's calling for 40%/55%.

So, at this point I would say "Go, but go as early as possible."
 

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I'd go, but I'd go VFR underneath. This time of year the ceilings will be high enough and this type of weather typically has good vis underneath.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
So, at this point I would say "Go, but go as early as possible."
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And today, it still looks like a probable go, but definitely go right away at noon.

Later tonight, a lot more products will be available. Tomorrow morning, a look at the radar will probably tell you exactly what you need to know.
 
Too early to tell. But my guess would be yes.

If you're concerned about passenger comfort with turbulence, though, that would be a maybe. A 172 on a really hot summer day with storm probability? Hmm...

You'd be better off going first thing in the morning before it gets hot.
 
Thanks for all this!

flyingcheesehead said:
It's a maybe. ;)

Surface guesses on either side of Friday noon:

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So, that tells us... Nothing useful, at this point. It might suck, or it might not.

The only other tool that ever seems to be worth a crap this far out is USAirNet. Right now, for KFDK at 2:00 PM local on Friday they're calling for 6SM HZ, broken ceiling >12,000 feet, 12% chance of precip and 19% chance of TSRA. Also, 3-knot winds and mid-90's temps... Go high and keep your wife cool and comfy. Hopefully the clouds will keep the thermals from getting too strong.

Anyway, at 5 PM (the next forecast time) they're calling for P6SM, clear below 12,000 but 50% chance of precip and 63% chance of TSRA, with relatively high chances for both for the remainder of Friday and Saturday (they only forecast 72 hours out, so nothing for your return yet).

At KFRG Friday, much nicer temps, vis and clouds OK but steadily increasing chance of precip and TSRA throughout the day. 17% and 18% respectively at 11 AM and 2 PM, up to 29% and 44% at 5 PM and 8 PM.

En route, it looks like Wings (KLOM) is about halfway, and also calling for good weather at 2 PM with 10%/16% chances, and at 5 and 8 it's calling for 40%/55%.

So, at this point I would say "Go, but go as early as possible."
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scottd said:
Looks like the main convective threat will develop in a line west of Martinsburg (closer to Petersburg) tomorrow around 1830Z - 19Z where the cap will erode first. Given the rather weak winds aloft any cells that do develop won't be moving quickly. I anticipate that this convection will build east into the DC/Balt metro area by 21Z to 22Z.

Along the first half of your route, boundary layer depth will be about 6,500 feet or so by mid to late afternoon. To stay out of the haze layer and bumps, I'd look at flying at 7,000 or higher although the depth of the boundary layer will decrease as you head to the northeast.
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Thanks for this. There's no way I could have predicted boundary layers like that!
 
I wish there were more weather related posts like this. Good to see how you guys think.
 
I shall be getting an early start to take the plane to HGR tomorrow. Hopefully things will go well (and fast) and I can return pretty quickly. If not, it's a rental car ride back... sigh.
 
Looking at updated versions of the products I previously posted, it looks like the chances of precip and TSRA at Wings and Farmingdale have been lowered significantly, with the higher chances pushed off until later at night. Frederick is still looking good at 2 and not so good at 5.

With more products becoming available - FA's say VFR or MVFR (we're still looking at Outlook for that far out). The Airmet for IFR says conditions will be ending through the morning. A few of the TAF's mid-route (Wilmington, Philly northeast, Trenton) are calling for BKN050CB at 1800Z/2 PM EDT, but Philly Int'l is kind of between them and not calling for any CB's.

Still looks like a "Go, but go as early as you can". I would have a few routes in mind, check the radar and pick the one that looks most likely, and stay up-to-date with the XM weather to be a bit more sure of what's going on en route.
 
Still looks like a Go to me! I hope you're in the air, Ben, have a safe flight!

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AOPA Flight Safety Foundation has a flight risk evaluation tool you might try.
 
Thanks everyone! I'm here. Follow up question soon!
 
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