Would you go up in this?

[azure]

Tomorrow looks to be my last chance to extend my IFR currency solo before it expires at the end of the month. I need to shoot at least two approaches. For the morning they're forecasting widespread rain without convection, freezing levels 8-10 kft, pulling away in the afternoon, with ceilings rising from around 700 feet. The fly in that ointment is that it's all courtesy of a strengthening storm that is forecast to bring very strong winds as low as 3000 MSL, on the order of 50-60 kts, strengthening to 60-80 kts up around 6000. Here is the TAF for KMPV:

KMPV 232112Z 2321/2418 18006KT P6SM OVC035
FM241000 16010KT 5SM -RA OVC018
FM241300 17010KT 2SM RA BR OVC007
FM241700 17006KT 4SM BR OVC015

I thought it was strange that there is no mention of WS in the TAF, though the G-AIRMET page on ADDS does show a very large area of LLWS expanding in this direction as of 09Z.

I'd like to get in some more actual prior to getting together with a CFII, but those winds at altitude give me pause. Moderate to severe turbulence in IMC is not my idea of a fun time, and I would expect it based on my experience around Michigan and orographic effects in the mountains here I would expect to make it much worse. What do you think?

 

[James331]

Would I, sure. By that's me.

There is the old saying, if you have to ask

 

[wsuffa]

What time do you plan to go?

 

[azure]

What time do you plan to go?

Either 15Z-ish, or after 19Z.

 

[JimNtexas]

Is there a flight school with a trainer approved for IFR currency? It might be better to use them than to be up there wishing you were down here.

 

[somorris]

That doesn't sound like fun to me either. With the terrain where you are living now, it will likely be a wild ride. Not worth it just to maintain currency in my thinking.

 

[azure]

Is there a flight school with a trainer approved for IFR currency? It might be better to use them than to be up there wishing you were down here.

There is no flight school here anymore period. The local FBO had to lay off their only CFI a while back. He's the guy I plan to get together with.

I'm not fond of using trainers (I assume you mean PCATDs or "sim"s) for IFR proficiency anyway, since my own avionics suite is very different from any sim I know of and IME proficiency with the buttonology is a huge part of being competent in actual IFR.

 

[azure]

That doesn't sound like fun to me either. With the terrain where you are living now, it will likely be a wild ride. Not worth it just to maintain currency in my thinking.

Yep, that's exactly what I'm thinking. I'll wait to see how the weather actually develops tomorrow, but it will probably be a no-go, unless the low ceilings stick around after the main brunt of the winds has moved off in the afternoon.

 

[ClimbnSink]

Bummer I read the title and was expecting a picture of some sort of deathtrap flying machine. Good luck on all the wx/currency stuff. There is a CFI/everything pilot named Guy Rouille iirc up there is or was the state director of aviation or some such. Might be a dpe as well don't know if he teaches anyway he is a nice guy and has local knowledge.

 

[NoHeat]

LLWS can be dangerous, and on top of that you are likely to be a bit rusty if you are like me, when I'm close to becoming noncurrent for IFR. I would wait until the WX is safe and go up with a safety pilot.

 

[Henning]

Nobody likes doing an IPC in the sim, but sometimes it's the best way to deal with it.

 

[warthog1984]

Truly?

Grab 2 approaches in the sim for currency, then go up next week for your real refresher when you've not trying to outsmart a storm front.

 

[azure]

Truly?

Grab 2 approaches in the sim for currency, then go up next week for your real refresher when you've not trying to outsmart a storm front.

Like I said, there is no sim. It will just have to be under the hood.

This one is a clear no-go - there are areas with winds forecast over 80 kts at 3000 feet. The only reason we aren't going to get that kind of wind at the terminals is a strong low-level inversion preventing mixing. The forecast discussion says that the summits will be seeing some really wild winds. Wouldn't want to be on Mt. Washington today... or even Camel's Hump.

 

[azure]

LLWS can be dangerous, and on top of that you are likely to be a bit rusty if you are like me, when I'm close to becoming noncurrent for IFR. I would wait until the WX is safe and go up with a safety pilot.

I did 4 approaches last month and early this month, that's why I only need two. Unfortunately I can't count the one I did last weekend coming back from BTV, because although I did run into IMC along the way, none of it was on the approach. It was at night though, so a definite help in keeping rust at bay.

 

[Richard]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KMPV [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]241232Z AUTO 17012G18KT 4SM RA OVC015 08/ A2970 RMK AO2 P0013 T0083[/FONT]

I would go. RWY 17 has several IAPs.

If it were all cream and butter what is the use of it? Go get some real world flying.

Of course I am somewhat of a cowboy. If it is milque toast you want then wait for a sunny pretend-IFR day.

 

[Ted]

I'd go up. We were thinking of flying to Newfoundland today or tomorrow to take advantage of the 60ish kt winds on the tail.

 

[Richard]

I'd go up. We were thinking of flying to Newfoundland today or tomorrow to take advantage of the 60ish kt winds on the tail.

Once, I looked back at a 3 yr span of flying and found I had headwinds about 80% of the time, no matter the direction of flight.

I want to hear the post-flight description of your flight to Newfieland. Yes, I am envious.

 

[Ted]

Once, I looked back at a 3 yr span of flying and found I had headwinds about 80% of the time, no matter the direction of flight.

I want to hear the post-flight description of your flight to Newfieland. Yes, I am envious.

Doubt if we'll actually go. Last trip we had tailwinds both ways, which was a miracle. Correct placement of low pressure systems made that possible.

 

[frfly172]

It looks like you have made the decision not to go. If I had doubts about the flight I wouldn't go ,get an IPC later from a CFI.

 

[azure]

It looks like you have made the decision not to go. If I had doubts about the flight I wouldn't go ,get an IPC later from a CFI.

For now. I have a (short) dentist appointment at 1830Z, then I'll re-evaluate the wx. It looks, though, as if the ceilings are already coming up. It's even VFR most places nearby.

I checked my logbook and actually I need only one approach to extend my currency to end of next month. Two and I'll be legal through April.

 

[Henning]

For now. I have a (short) dentist appointment at 1830Z, then I'll re-evaluate the wx. It looks, though, as if the ceilings are already coming up. It's even VFR most places nearby.

I checked my logbook and actually I need only one approach to extend my currency to end of next month. Two and I'll be legal through April.

I don't know, if I am pushing currency that tight, as in flying IFR that little, I'm more comfortable doing regular IPCs.

 

[wsuffa]

Either 15Z-ish, or after 19Z.

Based solely on the TAF without knowledge of local conditions or the winds aloft, I'd go.

However, with the wind at altitude that you mention, given the mountains nearby, I'd stay on the ground because it won't be a fun ride. My guess is that the altitudes on the approaches are high enough to put you in those winds at altitude.

I don't know, if I am pushing currency that tight, as in flying IFR that little, I'm more comfortable doing regular IPCs.

I prefer to do them through IPCs, though if I'm flying a lot of approaches during a 6-month period, I might extend that out.

 

[Henning]

Based solely on the TAF without knowledge of local conditions or the winds aloft, I'd go.

However, with the wind at altitude that you mention, given the mountains nearby, I'd stay on the ground because it won't be a fun ride. My guess is that the altitudes on the approaches are high enough to put you in those winds at altitude.



I prefer to do them through IPCs, though if I'm flying a lot of approaches during a 6-month period, I might extend that out.

If I was flying enough that I had no questions with currency, then I'm flying enough that I'm staying solidly in the game mentally. My first 2 years out in SoCal I flew a lot of IMC 5-10 minutes at a time getting through the marine layer, but I was getting enough time and procedures in that I stayed sharp, plus I was young. Now a days, not so much. Besides, my IPCs are always a good excuse to get together with Av and visit.

 

[azure]

I don't know, if I am pushing currency that tight, as in flying IFR that little, I'm more comfortable doing regular IPCs.

I plan to do an IPC anyway, or at least go up with a CFII to make sure I'm not getting into any bad habits. My BFR is due anyway before end of January. But it's unlikely I'll be able to do it before Xmas break, and in these surroundings, especially if flying at night, I like to file when I can do so without worries about ice.

I'm less concerned about proficiency than legality at this point because I did a refresher late last month, 4 approaches in all in actual, plus holds. I was very much on my game last weekend too, flying over the mountains from BTV in pitch black, and joining the approach. Just that, once on the FAC, I was back in civilization with plenty of lights on the ground.

 

[Henning]

I plan to do an IPC anyway, or at least go up with a CFII to make sure I'm not getting into any bad habits. My BFR is due anyway before end of January. But it's unlikely I'll be able to do it before Xmas break, and in these surroundings, especially if flying at night, I like to file when I can do so without worries about ice.

I'm less concerned about proficiency than legality at this point because I did a refresher late last month, 4 approaches in all in actual, plus holds. I was very much on my game last weekend too, flying over the mountains from BTV in pitch black, and joining the approach. Just that, once on the FAC, I was back in civilization with plenty of lights on the ground.

Then just grab someone when the weather breaks and do what you need under the hood. It's winter, ice is not something I like to play in without deice gear, I got my warning.

 

[azure]

However, with the wind at altitude that you mention, given the mountains nearby, I'd stay on the ground because it won't be a fun ride. My guess is that the altitudes on the approaches are high enough to put you in those winds at altitude.

The Worcester range, which I would have to fly right over to get to the IAF for the RNAV 17, is sitting in the low level jet with 60 kt winds (forecast) swirling around the summits.

 

[EdFred]

From the sounds of it Liz, even *I* wouldn't go up in it to fly approaches.

 

[azure]

From the sounds of it Liz, even *I* wouldn't go up in it to fly approaches.

No, you'd just post about not doing it with a user name that turns every thread you post in into a scroll fest just to pi$$ people like me off, right?

Turns out the weather turned VFR before I even set foot in the dentist's office. I mentioned what I had been thinking about doing, and she had never met a woman private pilot before so we got to talking. I showed her a couple of cellphone pics of Mt. Washington from above. 'Twas a fun conversation. But I stayed on the ground today, which I suspect was a wise move anyway given that there weren't a lot of pireps from bugsmasher pilots in these parts today, other than a Cirrus going into Nashua this morning and a Mooney landing at KOWD, both well south of here. Even the big iron were reporting moderate turbulence pretty much everywhere. An Embraer 170 reported +- 12 kts LLWS at Burlington an hour ago. Definitely a good day to stay home unless you have a really good reason to fly.

 

[beestforwardspeed]

Too bad I don't live a bit closer as I would have been glad to act as a safety blanket for you on a day like this

I personally WOULD have gone, esp if the airport had an ILS, but I am rather bullish on flying in hardcore IFR, as long as there isn't any ice or embedded t-storms close by. I certainly would understand why most GA pilots would not have wanted to.

Looking at the skew-t you will notice the winds were in the 40-50 kt range at around 3-4K, but notice how they were out of the S and SW.

What this means it that they are blowing more parallel to the ridge lines which in turn would mean much less mountain wave that if they had been out of the W or NW perpendicular to the ridges.

Also, due to the very stable low level air, the strong winds will have a difficult time mixing to the surface, hence why the sfc winds are a lot less than just a few thousand feet up.

Ironically, I was much more on-edge when I took this boat trip than I would have been flying in the weather we had today, but then again I'm a lot more confident of an airman than a seaman




https://vimeo.com/106638814

 

[azure]

Too bad I don't live a bit closer as I would have been glad to act as a safety blanket for you on a day like this

I personally WOULD have gone, esp if the airport had an ILS, but I am rather bullish on flying in hardcore IFR, as long as there isn't any ice or embedded t-storms close by. I certainly would understand why most GA pilots would not have wanted to.

Looking at the skew-t you will notice the winds were in the 40-50 kt range at around 3-4K, but notice how they were out of the S and SW.

What this means it that they are blowing more parallel to the ridge lines which in turn would mean much less mountain wave that if they had been out of the W or NW perpendicular to the ridges.

And this is why I need to take a mountain flying course! I was actually wondering if the wind direction might make conditions today a little less wild than I feared, but didn't have the solid knowledge to back up the idea.

Also, due to the very stable low level air, the strong winds will have a difficult time mixing to the surface, hence why the sfc winds are a lot less than just a few thousand feet up.

Yes, this fact I was well aware of, and mentioned in one of my first posts in the thread. It's the reason for the widespread LLWS warnings. Of course when the surface is 3000 msl as it is over the Worcester range, the air doesn't have to mix down, and that's why I was concerned about turbulence. If you'd posted in the morning, I might have had a harder time talking myself out of going. As it was, if I hadn't been at the airport by about 0900, it would have been a waste of time since the clouds started coming up by 1000, and it was VFR nearly everywhere but the NEK by noon. I wasn't about to travel anywhere to shoot approaches today because I had to be in Montpelier at 1330.

And Wednesday back comes the snow... I guess I'll have to recover my currency under the hood.

Nice video btw... gives me cabin fever just watching it. And it was 60+ dF here today!