Winter weather flying help

J

JasonM

Pattern Altitude
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JM
This is my first year making decisions on my own during the winter months. I have been told not to worry about icing up as long as I am not flying in any visible precip or flying in the clouds and the temps are near freezing. I'm only VFR rated and flying a non FIKI airplane, so I am limited to staying out of the messy conditions anyhow.

What I am trying to understand is how I can make the go/no-go call based on percentages in the forecast. If an area is forecast to have a 30% chance of snow , should that scare me from flying?

Is there a magic number to avoid with a non-FIKI VFR dependant situation such as I find my self in. I am thinking it should be possible to dodge and weeve the precip if only 30%, but in reality I can only relate this to a rain shower.

I am flying a G1000 equipped 182 with XM weather.

Reason I ask is there are a few places I want to fly where the forecast looks great for 90% of the flight, but would require me to transition a 40 mile swath of 20-30% chance of snow.
 
I've flown in overcast day VFR conditions with >10SM visibility in Minnesota and picked up a little bit of clear ice on the wing/prop leading edges and antennas.

If you start picking up more than just a trace of ice, I would just land and reevaluate your situation.

Personally, I would be more worried about having your engine freeze up from being parked without a Tanis heater and cowl blankets than picking up ice in VFR.
 
Just continue to check the area forecasts, TAF, AIRMET's/SIGMET's, PIREPs and make the best decision. If your second guessing yourself don't go
 
JasonM said:
That would take all the fun out of flying. I need hills and things to watch out for. :)
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I have hills and things to watch out for....sometimes that's not so good...
 
JasonM said:
This is my first year making decisions on my own during the winter months. I have been told not to worry about icing up as long as I am not flying in any visible precip or flying in the clouds and the temps are near freezing. I'm only VFR rated and flying a non FIKI airplane, so I am limited to staying out of the messy conditions anyhow.

What I am trying to understand is how I can make the go/no-go call based on percentages in the forecast. If an area is forecast to have a 30% chance of snow , should that scare me from flying?

Is there a magic number to avoid with a non-FIKI VFR dependant situation such as I find my self in. I am thinking it should be possible to dodge and weeve the precip if only 30%, but in reality I can only relate this to a rain shower.

I am flying a G1000 equipped 182 with XM weather.

Reason I ask is there are a few places I want to fly where the forecast looks great for 90% of the flight, but would require me to transition a 40 mile swath of 20-30% chance of snow.
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Go and learn. Stay out of stuff you can't see the horizon through. Don't worry about flying through some snow. Have fun.
 
Just remember that's a 70 - 80% chance of nothin' out there! Don't scud run and always give yourself an out.
 
iflyvfr said:
Just remember that's a 70 - 80% chance of nothin' out there! Don't scud run and always give yourself an out.
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The end run around a show is always fun right up until the moment is isn't...
 
iflyvfr said:
Just remember that's a 70 - 80% chance of nothin' out there! Don't scud run and always give yourself an out.
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Clark1961 said:
The end run around a show is always fun right up until the moment is isn't...
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Weenies. Nothing wrong with scud running with 1500' under ya, and 500' above ya.

If you can't make it around the snow, look at your inflight weather or land and figure out another plan. ;)
 
Geico266 said:
Weenies. Nothing wrong with scud running with 1500' under ya, and 500' above ya.
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Yup, everybody calls me a weenie. I really liked the comment from Denver Approach one day "...is that guy still out there?" when storms were popping up all around. Of course the guys in Riverton prolly thought I was a weenie also for not departing in freezing fog. I just live with it.
 
Clark1961 said:
Yup, everybody calls me a weenie. I really liked the comment from Denver Approach one day "...is that guy still out there?" when storms were popping up all around. Of course the guys in Riverton prolly thought I was a weenie also for not departing in freezing fog. I just live with it.
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Clouds here have been 5,000' for 4 days. Perfect flying weather. Why is scud running bad if you are above FAA and personal mins? :dunno:
 
Geico266 said:
Clouds here have been 5,000' for 4 days. Perfect flying weather. Why is scud running bad if you are above FAA and personal mins? :dunno:
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I didn't say it was bad. I fly lower than ducks on occasion...and FAA minimums are pretty low over uninhabited areas. Gotta dodge them durn towers though.

I will say watch out for the door closing behind you and don't fly through anything you can't see through unless yer IFR and even then ya might not want to fly through it - see Crossfield, Scott, one each.
 
Geico266 said:
Clouds here have been 5,000' for 4 days. Perfect flying weather. Why is scud running bad if you are above FAA and personal mins? :dunno:
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I think because most of the time, you're neither. But I'm a weather weenie.
 
This RED LINE is similar to the route I want to take through this weather forecast. This shows the precip % and the sky cover.

I know the temps will be low enough that any precip will be snow.

Does this look like something to be concerned about? Is it more likely this would not cause any problems or is it more likely I will be turning around? I know this is limited data because we don't know the ceilings.

6f3yiw.jpg


20idgds.jpg
 
JasonM said:
This RED LINE is similar to the route I want to take through this weather forecast. This shows the precip % and the sky cover.
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I live 30 minutes south of your route of flight, if it's VFR you will be fine. It's so cold that snow probably wouldn't stick to your airplane right now. Yes, I have inadvertently flown through a little bit of snow at night in a Cessna 152. It remained VFR the whole time and all I could do was turn on the pitot heat. It was just some surprise flurries that lasted less than a minute.

Brainerd BRD is a good tech stop if you encounter mechanical troubles. Also has a restaurant on field (in the terminal, not the FBO building)

Aitkin AIT has a courtesy car to use.

If possible, you want to make a detour south to Granite Falls, GDB to visit the museum. There is also a courtesy car. The museum has limited winter hours, see their website. http://www.fagenfighterswwiimuseum.org/

Superior SUW has a restaurant on the field (The Upper Deck)

Duluth DLH has Monaco Air as their FBO, you can get a crew car there too.
 
There is an 80% chance the wx will change by Sat. Check again Sat AM, have on board wx, and use the NRST function. Have fun!
 
JasonM said:
This RED LINE is similar to the route I want to take through this weather forecast. This shows the precip % and the sky cover.

I know the temps will be low enough that any precip will be snow.

Does this look like something to be concerned about? Is it more likely this would not cause any problems or is it more likely I will be turning around? I know this is limited data because we don't know the ceilings.

6f3yiw.jpg


20idgds.jpg
Click to expand...

I don't believe that experimental pages are to be used for operational purposes.

Bob Gardner
 
Sky cover isn't the greatest issue and doesn't give you enough information. How high are the ceilings, how thick is the deck, and how much moisture is in it, that's what you need to know. If you have significant enough space below the clouds with decent visibility, you have an opportunity to go quite safely, however, if it's a thick, multi layered boundary, you have to consider how much moisture is there and at what level? Is there an inversion involved that will have warmer air above you? These are also questions that need to be answered as the answer leads to the potential of freezing rain or blinding snow. A light flurry of snow is not a great deterrent to me, but chance of heavy snow is unless I'm planning IFR, and then the conditions have to be such that I will not accumulate wet sticky snow. Any chance of freezing rain will keep me on the ground.

Personally, my 'go-no go' decision is always a 'go' until I get my Pre launch briefing.
 
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bobmrg said:
I don't believe that experimental pages are to be used for operational purposes.
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NWS forecast discussions may not be official for operational purposes either, but I find them extremely helpful for clarification on long-term forecasts and for areas with sparse TAFs.

I think the broader point is that it's simply too far out to know for sure.

FWIW, here's the NWS Aberdeen discussion:

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN APPEARS AS IF IT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM...BUT WITH PATTERN AMPLIFICATION/BUCKLING OF
THE FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. SO WHAT THIS MEANS IS THE
FORECAST NOW LOOKS PRETTY MUCH DRY EXCEPTING PERHAPS SUNDAY NIGHT
WHEN A CHUNK OF ENERGY AND A SFC FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS.
 
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