Winter and Clouds. What am I missing?

J

JasonM

Pattern Altitude
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Display name:
JM
So today I went up and did some pattern work since the freezing level was 5000' and the cloud bases were overcast at 4000'. I noticed the temp at 3500' to be 2 deg C. The MEA's going anywhere are 6000 - 7000 the OROCA is 7200'. Here I am doing my thing in the pattern while one after the next, non FIKI airplanes are coming and going right into and out of the clouds.

I just recently got my IR and this had me wondering what I was missing. Icing AIRMETS at 5000', freezing level at 5000', +2 deg at 3500', overcast at 4000'. I scratched flying approaches in the clouds while everyone one else had all the fun. Is there some magical handshake I need to learn to get access to certain clouds in the winter?
 
I'm interested, too. Being in Georgia, freezing levels aren't as much of an issue, so I've got very limited experience. I would have agreed with JM's thinking.
 
Where were the tops? Perhaps they were just breaking through a layer.
 
Around here, if there is an icing airmet, FSS wont accept your IFR flight plan if you aren't FIKI.
 
Yep it was a little frosty today.

hwb9nb.jpg
 
My guess is that those pilots had done their due diligence and determined that they could punch through to on-top. Freezing level doesn't mean much when you are zooming along in crystal clear conditions on top, and they knew that there was good VFR beneath the clouds. What's not to like?

As an instructor in the Puget Sound area I had many opportunities to train pilots in the clouds in non-FIKI airplanes, and I did many hours of personal flying in the clouds without FIKI....and that was back in the 70s and 80s before we had the wealth of weather information that exists today.

Do yourself a favor. Go to www.avwxworkshops.com and order Scott Dennstaedt's "Ice is not Nice" CD course, or look at one of the many Fight Safety Foundation videos on the subject.

There is one rule about icing that you must remember, however, no matter what: Ice can surprise you, so always have an out.

Bob Gardner
 
Also look at the Skew-T. There may have been an inversion in there as well making it less "icy" in them thar clouds. IMHO the Skew-T is the best way to figure out what's going on in the clouds.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Around here, if there is an icing airmet, FSS wont accept your IFR flight plan if you aren't FIKI.
Click to expand...

They were accepting them yesterday.


dans2992 said:
Where were the tops? Perhaps they were just breaking through a layer.
Click to expand...

These was no PIREP's in the area indicating what they could be. I know one guy hopefully was as he announced climbing to 9000 when exiting the pattern.

If that was the case, how do you know if it is safe to climb through a layer in these conditions?

James331 said:
Yep it was a little frosty today.
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How long and what conditions where you in to accumulate that?

bobmrg said:
My guess is that those pilots had done their due diligence and determined that they could punch through to on-top. Freezing level doesn't mean much when you are zooming along in crystal clear conditions on top, and they knew that there was good VFR beneath the clouds. What's not to like?

As an instructor in the Puget Sound area I had many opportunities to train pilots in the clouds in non-FIKI airplanes, and I did many hours of personal flying in the clouds without FIKI....and that was back in the 70s and 80s before we had the wealth of weather information that exists today.

Do yourself a favor. Go to www.avwxworkshops.com and order Scott Dennstaedt's "Ice is not Nice" CD course, or look at one of the many Fight Safety Foundation videos on the subject.

There is one rule about icing that you must remember, however, no matter what: Ice can surprise you, so always have an out.

Bob Gardner
Click to expand...

There is obviously something I need to learn and be exposed to with regard to icing. I will check into that. At this point being new IFR, I have been trained to stay away from the clouds if the temps are +2 to -20. I feel after seeing what I did yesterday, that there must be some good exceptions.
 
vontresc said:
Also look at the Skew-T. There may have been an inversion in there as well making it less "icy" in them thar clouds. IMHO the Skew-T is the best way to figure out what's going on in the clouds.
Click to expand...

That is something I need to learn. I took a peek at one and it is very confusing to me.
 
Definitely spend some time learning the basics of the Skew-T to be able to predict the temps aloft. Inversions are incredibly common. Between the thickness of the layer and the temps, there are plenty of cases where it would be acceptable to continue the climb. Having an out is the key. You're on the right track, though, taking into account the MEA's, OROCA, etc.
 
JasonM said:
They were accepting them yesterday.
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I think the "around here" he was referring to was Colorado, where the tall mountains have a definite effect on the weather.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Around here, if there is an icing airmet, FSS wont accept your IFR flight plan if you aren't FIKI.
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I'm skeptical that icing airmets have gotten reliable enough to justify such heavy-handed governing, especially now that more accurate tools for ice forecasting have become available.

Another reason to keep DUATS.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Around here, if there is an icing airmet, FSS wont accept your IFR flight plan if you aren't FIKI.
Click to expand...

I don't think that they have that authority. However, I do not have any ready answers for a briefer who will not accept a flight plan. I think it is time for you to go to www.1800wxbrief.com, register, and take advantage of the many goodies offered at that site.

Bob Gardner
 
JasonM said:
That is something I need to learn. I took a peek at one and it is very confusing to me.
Click to expand...

If you have an ipad, I would recommend spending the $10 and get the SkewTLogPro program its pretty easy to read and in color ( Red=Temp Blue= Dewpoint)

I just put in my airports along the route and it gives me an idea (operative word is "Idea") of cloud tops and gaps both current and up to 3hr forcast.

Here is the link.
http://www.skewtlogpro.com/

I have had a few flights where this has helped quite a bit, and even allowing for me to anticipate something like tops at 4000 and another layer higher at 9-10,000 where I could file for 7000 and stay out of the clouds (or ice).

This is part of my ritual when picking an altitude to file, along with winds aloft, ect
 
Also the Noaa website now has HTML5 plots that will work on a non Java device (iOS)

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

The two tutorials referenced at the bottom of that page are a good place to start.
 
JasonM said:
How long and what conditions where you in to accumulate that
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Not long, there was moderate mixed ice all the way down to 3k, and intermittent tops around 7k, this was late last night.

I had the boots, windshield and probe heat, prop heat, inlet heat, etc, I was blowing a healthy amount of ice off all the way home.

The piece in my hand fell of my winglet, after shutdown I heard a "thunk" and saw that below the winglet (not booted or heated).

With the terrain, had that been in a non FIKI plane it would have been a very interesting flight.

As far as KNOWING the tops.... You won't, best case is you can take all the avalible info (especially PIREPS) and make a educated guess.

If everything has to be as advertised for your flight to be safe, don't go.

I had a very IMC flight in my 185 a while ago (there is a thread on it), I had more then a few outs, and based on more the a few reports, metars, TAFs etc.
I had it on good info that I would be climbing out of the clouds, not so much, best I got was between layers - IMC - between layers - IMC, between layers there was also plenty of water but no freezing.

Just be carefull in ice in non FIKI planes (and to a extent even in FIKI planes), with winter being here if you live in the north an IFR ticket can be of little good if its cold and you're expecting IMC or precip.
 
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Another product that I didn't see mentioned (apologies if I missed it) is the CIP/FIP from ADDS. This gives an assessment of current icing severities and probabilities of icing at various altitudes, as well as a forecast of same for something like 8 hours into the future. I use it along with the skew-Ts, forecast tops from the Area Forecast, and temps aloft (at surface and at 3, 6, 9, 12 etc. kft) from ADDS to make my decisions about flying in cold conditions.

Now I'm not a long-time IFR pilot, only having my rating for going on two years, so take the following with a grain of salt.

Last Friday it was only about 4C on the ground, but the CIP/FIP showed zero probability of icing below 9000 within 100 nm, and the temps aloft and skew T showed a strong inversion, with warmer temps at 6000 than on the ground. I launched and had a great IMC practice flight (and confirmed 9C at 6000, actually a bit warmer than forecast). This Monday there was a low (< 25%) chance of icing at 5000 starting about 25-30 nm north of here, but the freezing level was about 5000 and the skew-T indicated tops around 6000. With the going forecast of clouds scattering out playing out well from my own observations, and plenty of above freezing air below my altitudes, I launched again. This time it was closer, and I kept a nervous eye on the OAT and did indeed see 0C briefly in the clouds -- and right at the tops. I didn't see any ice. But again, if I had, I had outs both above and below and wouldn't have launched Monday without them.
 
Ive told this story before, but basically I was flying north to Boulder CO and got as far as Colorado Springs. I was VFR and north of Colorado Springs was IFR. It was wintertime. I landed in Co Spgs and waited. I called Flight Service and tried to file IFR and the guy wouldn't accept my flight plan because there was an airmet for icing and I didn't have deice. A King Air came in from the north and I talked to the pilot and he said not only wasn't there any ice, he said those clouds aren't the kind of clouds that get ice. He called in a pirep reporting negative ice. I filed and they accepted my flight plan, even though the icing airmet was still in effect. They saw the Pirep also. I filed and made the flight. No ice.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Ive told this story before, but basically I was flying north to Boulder CO and got as far as Colorado Springs. I was VFR and north of Colorado Springs was IFR. It was wintertime. I landed in Co Spgs and waited. I called Flight Service and tried to file IFR and the guy wouldn't accept my flight plan because there was an airmet for icing and I didn't have deice. A King Air came in from the north and I talked to the pilot and he said not only wasn't there any ice, he said those clouds aren't the kind of clouds that get ice. He called in a pirep reporting negative ice. I filed and they accepted my flight plan, even though the icing airmet was still in effect. They saw the Pirep also. I filed and made the flight. No ice.
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I'd say that FSS specialist overstepped his authority.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Ive told this story before, but basically I was flying north to Boulder CO and got as far as Colorado Springs. I was VFR and north of Colorado Springs was IFR. It was wintertime. I landed in Co Spgs and waited. I called Flight Service and tried to file IFR and the guy wouldn't accept my flight plan because there was an airmet for icing and I didn't have deice. A King Air came in from the north and I talked to the pilot and he said not only wasn't there any ice, he said those clouds aren't the kind of clouds that get ice. He called in a pirep reporting negative ice. I filed and they accepted my flight plan, even though the icing airmet was still in effect. They saw the Pirep also. I filed and made the flight. No ice.
Click to expand...

Didn't realize FSS had operational control over all aircraft.
 
coloradobluesky said:
Ive told this story before, but basically I was flying north to Boulder CO and got as far as Colorado Springs. I was VFR and north of Colorado Springs was IFR. It was wintertime. I landed in Co Spgs and waited. I called Flight Service and tried to file IFR and the guy wouldn't accept my flight plan because there was an airmet for icing and I didn't have deice. A King Air came in from the north and I talked to the pilot and he said not only wasn't there any ice, he said those clouds aren't the kind of clouds that get ice. He called in a pirep reporting negative ice. I filed and they accepted my flight plan, even though the icing airmet was still in effect. They saw the Pirep also. I filed and made the flight. No ice.
Click to expand...

peerlesscowboy said:
I'd say that FSS specialist overstepped his authority.
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BillTIZ said:
Total BS. They do not make the go-nogo call.
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James331 said:
Didn't realize FSS had operational control over all aircraft.
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Geez, you guys have it all wrong! :nonod: This FSS guy was just "stepping up" and intervening where he saw a potential safety hazard for a pilot.

There was a whole thread on this recently where several posters advocated that "stepping up" would have prevented a guy from crashing......maybe this FSS guy read the thread? :rolleyes:
 
RotorAndWing said:
Geez, you guys have it all wrong! :nonod: This FSS guy was just "stepping up" and intervening where he saw a potential safety hazard for a pilot.

There was a whole thread on this recently where several posters advocated that "stepping up" would have prevented a guy from crashing......maybe this FSS guy read the thread? :rolleyes:
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Ok, so this happened one time. I don't think that makes a trend...
 
RotorAndWing said:
Geez, you guys have it all wrong! :nonod: This FSS guy was just "stepping up" and intervening where he saw a potential safety hazard for a pilot.

There was a whole thread on this recently where several posters advocated that "stepping up" would have prevented a guy from crashing......maybe this FSS guy read the thread? :rolleyes:
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Yes, I'm sure that's what it was. But he still stepped over the limit of his authority.
 
OK, I get it. FIKI means Freeze (frost?) something de-ice. I'm thinking the inflatable boot? The acronym, however, is not to be found in my "Dictionary of Aeronautical Terms", Fifth edition.
Did I miss something in my SP training?
 
wasn't there someone that posted about not checking icing conditions so that it would still be legal to fly into a FIKI area?
 
Here in the Great Lakes ice machine it takes only one encounter (that you survive) to give you real religion. One inch per minute this time of year (and spring) happens.
A local on our field was out in a P210 with a CFI getting his insurance required pressurized training. They came across Lake Huron above the clouds. Did an instrument approach through the cloud layer that was almost a straight in.. Good thing they did not have to go missed or do a procedure turn. They hit the runway at full throttle with a negative climb rate. I helped chip the ice off the door to get them out. The plane was a cocoon.
The instructor (military pilot) was sharp and did not let the pilot use flaps and he kept the gear up until ~100 agl. They used every inch of a 5000 foot (dry) runway stopping.
 
Dr. O said:
Here in the Great Lakes ice machine it takes only one encounter (that you survive) to give you real religion. One inch per minute this time of year (and spring) happens.
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I scribbled this on a particularly bad weather day a couple of years ago …


It’s raining now with low ceilings, embedded CB’s are possible, freezing level is below the tops of the nearby hills, and then there’s this urgent PIREP from a Dash 8 on the airway between Seattle and Yakima:

FL120/TP DH8B/TA M20/IC SEV MX/RM A/C IN CLOUD 4 SECONDS-1/4 INCH ACCUMULATION
​
 
Pilawt said:
I scribbled this on a particularly bad weather day a couple of years ago …


It’s raining now with low ceilings, embedded CB’s are possible, freezing level is below the tops of the nearby hills, and then there’s this urgent PIREP from a Dash 8 on the airway between Seattle and Yakima:

FL120/TP DH8B/TA M20/IC SEV MX/RM A/C IN CLOUD 4 SECONDS-1/4 INCH ACCUMULATION
​
Click to expand...

:hairraise:
 
Dr. O said:
.
A local on our field was out in a P210 with a CFI getting his insurance required pressurized training.
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Don't you have to go up to FL250 for that?
 
James331 said:
Don't you have to go up to FL250 for that?
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I'm relying on memory here, but I used to fly with an old guy whose P-210 began to pressurize at 10K. 25k is the operating ceiling for the airplane, and to my mind going that high to show that you know how to operate the systems doesn't make sense.

I should note that I was grandfathered in to such things as tailwheel, high performance, high altitude, etc and did not have to jump through these hoops.

I'm sure that there are folks with current experience who will chime in.

Bob Gardner
 
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Being a relatively new IFR pilot, I tend to be extremely conservative when flying in the winter.

That being said, the last couple of days (while comfortably on the ground) I noticed some cloud situations that made me wonder if I could safely venture through them.

Given:
  • temps below freezing from the ground on up
  • base of layer about 3,000' AGL
  • layer about 1,000' thick

Would climbing through a layer like that ever cause icing issues, or am I just being a worry-wart? I would clear it in 1-2 minutes....
 
bcool said:
..............................

Given:
  • temps below freezing from the ground on up
  • base of layer about 3,000' AGL
  • layer about 1,000' thick
Would climbing through a layer like that ever cause icing issues, ............
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not likely
 
Not likely. Then again, neither is getting hit by lightning or having an engine failure, but they do happen.

If you evaluate SLD forecast and look at pireps, you can reduce the risk further.
 
As long as there isn't a temperature inversion aloft, it is less likely to happen. There always exists the possibility of super cooled precip, but again conditions need to exist for it to happen.
 
So would it be acceptable to climb through a cloud layer if there is no forecast risk of SLD and no temperature inversion and the temperatures stay below freezing from the surface on up? I assume that the answer is "maybe/sometimes".

What if you take off with a surface temp of -10c to -15c and it only gets colder as you climb?
 
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