Winds Aloft

Tarheel Pilot

Tarheel Pilot

Line Up and Wait
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Tarheel Pilot
Ok, so I am planning a route from KJQF to KMEB, and I go to CSC DUATS to get the winds aloft and other weather, and I was just wondering how do I plan for the route when none of the reporting stations are anywhere near my route? Here is what I'm getting off of CSC DUATS right now.

Winds aloft forecast based on observations taken on the 23rd at 7:00am EST
(1200Z). Forecast valid on the 24th at 7:00am EST (1200Z), for use from
1:00am EST (0600Z) to 12:00 noon EST (1700Z). Temperatures are negative
above 24,000 feet.
FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000 5500
TRI 2827+09 2823+03 2834+00 2734-15 2839-24 294940 286949 298461
Bristol/Johnson/Kingsport TN [TRI]
GSP 2628 2819+10 3014+05 2920-01 2731-14 2940-23 295939 296649 307561 2720+11
Greer SC [GSP]
CAE 2620 2915+09 3310+05 3014+01 2831-13 2935-24 305539 306449 307361 2815+10
Columbia SC [CAE]
RDU 2734 2717+10 2811+05 2915-01 2927-12 2936-26 294141 317449 318761 2719+11
Raleigh/Durham NC [RDU]
FLO 2622 2914+09 3009+04 2618+01 2930-12 2832-25 315239 306749 317761 2815+10
Florence SC [FLO]
ILM 2521 2913+08 2712+06 2717+02 2925-13 2934-25 314640 318049 328561 2814+09
Wilmington NC [ILM]
TRI is to the west, GSP is to the southwest RDU is to the northeast, FLO is to the Southeast, and ILM is to the southeast. My route is 5,500 so really I'm just looking at the bolded winds aloft. Any help is appreciated.
 
Considering RDU and GSP are in agreement with each other and largely span your route, I'd go with those.

That doesn't mean they will be perfect but that's your best estimate given locations. CAE may indicate somewhat slower wind closer to your destination. Just retime yourself on your legs so you know what you're getting on performance.
 
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you are thinking too hard about it. those forecasts are usually wacked anyway. the winds across the area are going to be out of the west at 15-20 knots, so just use that. how bout 270@17 ??? dont spend so much time on the ground trying to figure out your ETA to the second that you dont have time to do the flight. take a swag at it (above value will get you pretty darn close) then recalculate the winds in flight, or at least your GS, so you can get an idea of what is ACTUALLY happening as you drone along. make a fuel go/no go decision based on that.

have fun flying!
 
I'd agree with Tony...those winds are all close enough that you could figure 270@17 and be pretty reasonable.

Your TC of 119 will result in about 85% of the wind being tailwind component, so for round numbers, 15 knots. If you're flying an 85-knot airplane you'll end up with 45 minutes, disregarding climb and descent speed differences. If you use the highest wind you see there (270 @ 20 knots), you'll have a 17 knot tailwind, resulting in 44 minutes and 36 seconds. If you use the lowest wind (280 @ 14 knots), you'll have a 13 knot tailwind, resulting in just under 46 minutes.

So the worst error between the best and worst information available is about a minute and 15 seconds on your time...well within anybody's standard, unless you're coordinating multiple elements in a precision bomb run. ;) If your airplane is faster than 85 knots TAS, that error only gets smaller.

In other words, don't get stuck in the details so deeply that you lose sight of the big picture. As Tony said, have fun flying.

Fly safe!

David
 
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You fudge it. They are never quite right. I would go with 275 at 15 and then once in the air you can recalculate what the real winds are.
 
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