Chip Sylverne
Final Approach
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- Jun 17, 2006
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Quit with the negative waves, man.
It's not the right analogy. Both of those actually.
a) Yes, the U.S. has $3.5 trillion in physical cash instruments, but inflation doesn't just affect cash - it affects any cash-convertibles. E.g. the Russel 3000 alone is $25.6 trillion. Even if there was a way to only devalue only the cash, it creates arbitrage opportunities for computers to pick up that $1 for 97c on the dollar, which pushes up the index in line with inflation, which in turn sucks the injected cash back up again.
The whole 'market cap' of U.S cash-convertables is $135 trillion. That's what you're diluting against - not just the $3.5 trillion in actual cash.
b) A 2-for-1 split is not a diluting event - it's a nominal event - everybody owns the same % of the company before and after. It's the equivalent of exchanging dollars into cents (a 100-to-1 split). Instead, the equivalent of inflation when it comes to company stock, is a secondary offering. In a secondary the company prints more shares which it keep for itself (or sell it immediately to raise cash), which in turn causes the %'s ownership to drop for each of the other shareholders, and thus the share price to drop. If the shareholders don't like this, they vote the board out and get another one.
I'm starting to spot an interesting trend here:
a) Most people are fine with how the private sector raises money
b) Most people just voted and say they want government to run more like the private sector
c) Most people are against having the government raise money the exact same way that the private sector would...
Mmm....
Firstly, the $3.5 trillion dilution is not a one time event, as I understand yourscheme it's annual, and of course as inflation increases so does the cost of government, so expect the annual injection of cash to rise every year.
Second, though you're correct a split does not change a company's market cap, the number of shares does increase, which is why the per share price drops. The percentage ownership in this case is not material, only the exchange value of the dollar, which is diluted, thus prices and wages will have to rise accordingly.