What does a "normal" market look like?

It's not about the EAB being viable at X price, it's about the [proverbial] PA-32 not being economically viable at any price. That was the point I got out of it anyways.
 
Morgan3820 said:
But it would be great for people like me who have money in the bank saved and not using my house as an investment but as a place to live. I could finally get a return on the money that I have stashed away rather than watching inflation erode its value.

And first time buyers would benefit by not having to have as much cash to put down. Need to think past the first level.
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There are way fewer potential buyers than there are total homeowners, so while higher interest rates and lower asset prices would benefit you, a drop in housing prices would crush everyone who owns a home. Accordingly, government policy is way more attuned to floating this thing along as long as they can.

I’m a pretty huge pessimist and think our inflationary run is/will be a disaster, but I also wouldn’t hold my breathe for materially lower home prices: too many political incentives for continuing to float that boat.
 
AA5Bman said:
There are way fewer potential buyers than there are total homeowners, so while higher interest rates and lower asset prices would benefit you, a drop in housing prices would crush everyone who owns a home. Accordingly, government policy is way more attuned to floating this thing along as long as they can.

I’m a pretty huge pessimist and think our inflationary run is/will be a disaster, but I also wouldn’t hold my breathe for materially lower home prices: too many political incentives for continuing to float that boat.
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Falling home prices only affects those who are trying/ intending to sell their homes. Otherwise, it means next to nothing for most homeowners. I suppose it might give those old folks who decide to reverse mortgage their home, but that's generally a poor idea as well.
 
AA5Bman said:
There are way fewer potential buyers than there are total homeowners, so while higher interest rates and lower asset prices would benefit you, a drop in housing prices would crush everyone who owns a home. Accordingly, government policy is way more attuned to floating this thing along as long as they can.

I’m a pretty huge pessimist and think our inflationary run is/will be a disaster, but I also wouldn’t hold my breathe for materially lower home prices: too many political incentives for continuing to float that boat.
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The Bank of Canada's approach (under both Conservative and Liberal governments) has been to try to keep letting air out of the housing bubble slowly and cautiously rather than encouraging it to inflate. I don't know if it will work this time, but it did in 2008 when we dodged a lot (not all) of the global financial crisis.
 
This economy we have right now is smoke and mirrors. Inflation is here and much higher than the gov wants to admit. At some point the bubble is going to burst, and when it does it is going to be ugly, very ugly.
Homes in my part of the world were selling for as much as 60% less than prior to the crash in '08, homes were selling for less than the cost to build, not including the land. I wasn't in the airplane market then, but I know of guys that sold pretty nice planes for less than they had put into the panel. One in particular was an early model 182, it was very clean, very straight, the guy had just dumped a bunch of money on a panel and interior, he sold it for $35k. He happened to be a builder that I framed homes for. I also heard of a Columbia 400 with very low time selling for around $150k after the crash.
I for one expect the airplane market to tank at some point in the next couple of years. I intend to pick up a fast single, for a great price.
 
Wagondriver said:
I for one expect the airplane market to tank at some point in the next couple of years. I intend to pick up a fast single, for a great price.
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Define tank.

I think aircraft prices are fairly stable in comparison to the stock market. At best I can’t see more than a 10% drop for quality aircraft. Hangar queens and derelicts will always be available for those trying to be cheap.
 
AA5Bman said:
There are way fewer potential buyers than there are total homeowners, so while higher interest rates and lower asset prices would benefit you, a drop in housing prices would crush everyone who owns a home. Accordingly, government policy is way more attuned to floating this thing along as long as they can.

I’m a pretty huge pessimist and think our inflationary run is/will be a disaster, but I also wouldn’t hold my breathe for materially lower home prices: too many political incentives for continuing to float that boat.
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And with high inflation, the cost of houses rise. I thought it was strictly low mortgage rates pushing the real estate, but I’m seeing cash offers on $200-300,000 houses that we are remodeling.
 
N747JB said:
And with high inflation, the cost of houses rise. I thought it was strictly low mortgage rates pushing the real estate, but I’m seeing cash offers on $200-300,000 houses that we are remodeling.
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Where do you find houses that cheap in 2021 (at least within an hour's commute of a city of any size)?
 
David Megginson said:
If people are coming in from more affluent areas of the country, no wonder they're putting down cash. That's barely a downpayment for a house in Toronto, and not close to that for the Bay Area, NY, etc

A tiny cottage (cabin) on a lake, even without running water, goes for more than US $300K in Eastern Ontario.
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Can't speak to Ontario, but citing NYC or Bay Area for real estate prices is like bringing up Lamborghini in a discussion of car prices. So far outside the norm as to be of very limited relevance.

The median home sale price in the US in Q2 2021 was $375K. A year prior it was $320K.
 
David Megginson said:
If people are coming in from more affluent areas of the country, no wonder they're putting down cash. That's barely a downpayment for a house in Toronto, and not close to that for the Bay Area, NY, etc

A tiny cottage (cabin) on a lake, even without running water, goes for more than US $300K in Eastern Ontario.
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If paying cash, then how do low interest rates make any difference? I see this as well heeled, city denizens fleeing to the country as they realize that city living is becoming less attractive. I see it everyday. The problem is that it really messes things up for the locals. Only the realtors benefit. The newcomers are refugees.
 
Morgan3820 said:
If paying cash, then how do low interest rates make any difference? I see this as well heeled, city denizens fleeing to the country as they realize that city living is becoming less attractive. I see it everyday. The problem is that it really messes things up for the locals. Only the realtors benefit. The newcomers are refugees.
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I'd think of the people moving into less-prosperous areas and snapping up homes less as refugees than as profiteers. They had homes worth >$1m (often) in well-off areas, but that wealth was hard to access and vulnerable to a future housing crash.

By selling there and buying in a have-not area, they can pocket hundreds of thousands in the price difference, and that money is safe when the housing market crashes.

Unfortunately, they drive up prices in the depressed areas, so that locals can no longer afford to buy, but that's all a chain reaction from the high house prices in wealthy areas, where low interest rates have inflated the bubble.
 
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David Megginson said:
I'd think of the people moving into less-prosperous areas and snapping up homes less as refugees than as profiteers. They had homes worth >$1m (often) in well-off areas, but that wealth was hard to access and vulnerable to a future housing crash.

By selling there and buying in a have-not area, they can pocket hundreds of thousands in the price difference, and that money is safe when the housing market crashes.

Unfortunately, they drive up prices in the depressed areas, so that locals can no longer afford to buy, but that's all a chain reaction from the high house prices in wealthy areas, where low interest rates have inflated the bubble.
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No kidding
 
And to bring this back to the original topic, the hundreds of thousands of extra dollars middle-aged and retired people have in the bank from selling their homes in hot markets, moving, and rebuying in slower ones are available to bid up the price on used airplanes.
 
David Megginson said:
Where do you find houses that cheap in 2021 (at least within an hour's commute of a city of any size)?
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Actually we are just west of Atlanta, bought a few there and 3 south west of Atlanta. These aren’t move in ready, by any stretch of the imagination. The key is buy them before they get listed. One we are starting on today hasn’t been occupied for 4-5 years! The owner left the utilities on, and they checked on it weekly. It’s completely full of junk, not like a hoarder, but he moved in with his kids and all his stuff is still there. We’ve got a dumpster being delivered today and will probably fill it by tomorrow.
 
David Megginson said:
…By selling there and buying in a have-not area, they can pocket hundreds of thousands in the price difference, and that money is safe when the housing market crashes…
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That is exactly what is happening here except people are bringing bay area remote salaries with them so they have no problem driving up prices competing with each other and not with locals.

Those increased values trickle over to everyone else’s assessed value and, by extension the property tax. In four years, my assessed value went from $209K to $389K and that’s with me challenging the assessment each year. The house across the street sold last May to a DINK west coast couple who paid $452K who felt they got it for a steal at $16K over list and no bidding war. That home sold new for $316K in 2015.

The median local income is $52K (2019 dollars) and something like 18% of the pop made less than $26K. SAT is the poorest city of 1M+ pop in the US, so you can imagine the impact this has, especially when investors are paying inflated prices on what will turn into a rental property.
 
N747JB said:
Actually we are just west of Atlanta, bought a few there and 3 south west of Atlanta. These aren’t move in ready, by any stretch of the imagination. The key is buy them before they get listed. One we are starting on today hasn’t been occupied for 4-5 years! The owner left the utilities on, and they checked on it weekly. It’s completely full of junk, not like a hoarder, but he moved in with his kids and all his stuff is still there. We’ve got a dumpster being delivered today and will probably fill it by tomorrow.
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I can see how that would be tempting to people coming from hotter property markets. In my urban neighbourhood in Ottawa, ON (not one of North America's hottest markets by an means) you'd be lucky to get a teardown for CA $800K/US $650K, and there would probably be a bidding war.
 
TCABM said:
That is exactly what is happening here except people are bringing bay area remote salaries with them so they have no problem driving up prices competing with each other and not with locals.

Those increased values trickle over to everyone else’s assessed value and, by extension the property tax. In four years, my assessed value went from $209K to $389K and that’s with me challenging the assessment each year. The house across the street sold last May to a DINK west coast couple who paid $452K who felt they got it for a steal at $16K over list and no bidding war. That home sold new for $316K in 2015.

The median local income is $52K (2019 dollars) and something like 18% of the pop made less than $26K. SAT is the poorest city of 1M+ pop in the US, so you can imagine the impact this has, especially when investors are paying inflated prices on what will turn into a rental property.
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I wonder if they'll also start bidding up the price of airplane hangars, marina slips, etc and push them out of reach for locals as well.
 
Morgan3820 said:
…The newcomers are refugees.
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You can say that again. Except here, they perceive themselves to be saviors of the backward rednecks. If I see one more social media comment complaining about the lack of a Trader Joe’s being unacceptable, I’m going to lose my mind. Thing is, there is exactly one in Town. Their selection is way smaller than most of the grocery stores and aren’t price competitive, either. Same goes for the one Whole Foods.
 
David Megginson said:
I'd think of the people moving into less-prosperous areas and snapping up homes less as refugees than as profiteers. They had homes worth >$1m (often) in well-off areas, but that wealth was hard to access and vulnerable to a future housing crash.

By selling there and buying in a have-not area, they can pocket hundreds of thousands in the price difference, and that money is safe when the housing market crashes.

Unfortunately, they drive up prices in the depressed areas, so that locals can no longer afford to buy, but that's all a chain reaction from the high house prices in wealthy areas, where low interest rates have inflated the bubble.
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Which is why interest rates need to return to historical normal.
 
TCABM said:
You can say that again. Except here, they perceive themselves to be saviors of the backward rednecks. If I see one more social media comment complaining about the lack of a Trader Joe’s being unacceptable, I’m going to lose my mind. Thing is, there is exactly one in Town. Their selection is way smaller than most of the grocery stores and aren’t price competitive, either. Same goes for the one Whole Foods.
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you have a Trader Joe’s? I am two hours away from the nearest Trader Joe’s and happy for it. I went a few times when I was up in the big city. For a while there it was kind of an exciting novelty for the wife but even she doesn’t really care to go anymore. Same with Costco. We bought a membership last year. It’s two hours away. I have been back twice. I don’t think we’re going to renew our membership. I was thinking about taking them up on their one year refund. And then going out to dinner with the proceeds but my wife decided that that’s cheating.
 
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TCABM said:
You can say that again. Except here, they perceive themselves to be saviors of the backward rednecks. If I see one more social media comment complaining about the lack of a Trader Joe’s being unacceptable, I’m going to lose my mind. Thing is, there is exactly one in Town. Their selection is way smaller than most of the grocery stores and aren’t price competitive, either. Same goes for the one Whole Foods.
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If they're looking for Trader Joe's etc, it sounds like they might be more suburbanites than urbanites. Supermarkets are a last resort when you live in a walkable urban neighbourhood with local shops. Suburbanites are also more likely to flee, because they spend much of their lives stuck in cars commuting in and out of the actual city (rather than walking/cycling to work).

But I agree with the sentiment. We hear a lot of the same frustration here about people moving from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) into small towns and cities, driving up property prices, and generally acting clueless about life outside the 416 and 905 area codes. One person I heard interviewed on the radio had moved from the GTA (population 6 million) to outside Sharbot Lake (population 1,400). They said it was pretty and people seemed friendly, but it was harder than they'd expected because there was nothing close to them — they always had to drive — and they couldn't just order Uber Eats when they were tired.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Which is why interest rates need to return to historical normal.
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The high house prices are good for older people, who might have lost their decent working-class jobs 10-20 years ago and be just scraping by on low-wage jobs with little/nothing in retirement savings — that's a common situation in the Canadian Maritime provinces, for example — because the windfall from selling their houses to affluent come-from-away types gives them a second chance at a dignified retirement. Those same high prices not so good for local younger people who want to buy their first house.

Flip it, and you flip the groups who benefit or are hurt. It's a no-win situation, but I do agree we (both Canada and the U.S.) would be better off on average with slightly higher interest rates and lower house prices.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Can't speak to Ontario, but citing NYC or Bay Area for real estate prices is like bringing up Lamborghini in a discussion of car prices. So far outside the norm as to be of very limited relevance.

The median home sale price in the US in Q2 2021 was $375K. A year prior it was $320K.
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Yikes! The median home price in Canada is CA $720K (US $570K). There must be a lot more economic disparity in the U.S. But you do have to consider population distribution rather than geography — an awfully big percentage of the U.S. population lives in states like NY, CT, NJ, CA, etc. with hot property markets.
 
Morgan3820 said:
you have a Trader Joe’s? I am two hours away from the nearest Trader Joe’s and happy for it. I went a few times when I was up in the big city. For a while there it was kind of an exciting novelty for the wife but even she doesn’t really care to go anymore. Same with Costco. We bought a membership last year. It’s two hours away. I have been back twice. I don’t think we’re going to renew our membership. I was thinking about taking them up on their one year refund. And then going out to dinner with the proceeds but my wife decided that that’s cheating.
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San Antonio has a Trader Joe’s—two now that I look it up. Been there once or twice but didn’t care for it.

We’re in the county just inside the next county over. Our county has seen 54% pop growth (now 49K) across the county over the last decade. Boerne, our county seat, more than doubled from 10K to 21K in the same time. We went from solidly rural to suburban sprawl in leas than 10 years.

Bexar county, where SAT is the seat, grew by 250K to just over 2M in the same time frame.
 
TCABM said:
San Antonio has a Trader Joe’s—two now that I look it up. Been there once or twice but didn’t care for it.

We’re in the county just inside the next county over. Our county has seen 54% pop growth (now 49K) across the county over the last decade. Boerne, our county seat, more than doubled from 10K to 21K in the same time. We went from solidly rural to suburban sprawl in leas than 10 years.

Bexar county, where SAT is the seat, grew by 250K to just over 2M in the same time frame.
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re my earlier question, has that population growth (and the arrival of people with lots of money to spend) affected the cost of buying/renting hangars, etc? Are they driving up the cost of flying like they've driven up the cost of real estate?
 
David Megginson said:
There must be a lot more economic disparity in the U.S.
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Not really. It is just a relatively affordable economy. As an example, I live in Tampa FL, in a very nice suburban area with good schools and a 30 minute commute to downtown. Within one hour of beaches, boat ramps, world class fishing, Disney, and pro sports teams that were in the World Series, Super Bowl, and Stanley Cup last year. I have a 4 bedroom house with 3 car garage and swimming pool in a nice gated community built in the last 20 years. Until recently, comparable homes in my neighborhood ranged in the mid-300's.

Now they are in the low to mid 400's, which sounds like a shocking increase, until you consider that 20 years ago when I bought, they were in the low 200's. Taking a long term historical view, doubling of prices over 20 years is not unreasonable. All the Canadians buying second homes here seem to agree. It's not an accident that the Lightning won the Stanley Cup last year.

If you listen to the media, the US is a terrible place. In reality, our economy does a pretty good job of allocating resources and meeting demand. We have our issues, but just about anyone with a steady job can afford to buy a reasonable house.
 
David Megginson said:
re my earlier question, has that population growth (and the arrival of people with lots of money to spend) affected the cost of buying/renting hangars, etc? Are they driving up the cost of flying like they've driven up the cost of real estate?
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SAT area is a weird flying market. 5C1 (10-mins drive)hangar prices are at the link. They seem pretty stable, but there’s room to grow still.

https://boernestageairfield.com/hangar-rentals/

BAZ has a waitlist about 30 people long and no idea what their pricing is.

SSF doesn’t seem to be able to give a hangar away.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Not really. It is just a relatively affordable economy. As an example, I live in Tampa FL, in a very nice suburban area with good schools and a 30 minute commute to downtown. Within one hour of beaches, boat ramps, world class fishing, Disney, and pro sports teams that were in the World Series, Super Bowl, and Stanley Cup last year. I have a 4 bedroom house with 3 car garage and swimming pool in a nice gated community built in the last 20 years. Until recently, comparable homes in my neighborhood ranged in the mid-300's.

Now they are in the low to mid 400's, which sounds like a shocking increase, until you consider that 20 years ago when I bought, they were in the low 200's. Taking a long term historical view, doubling of prices over 20 years is not unreasonable. All the Canadians buying second homes here seem to agree. It's not an accident that the Lightning won the Stanley Cup last year.

If you listen to the media, the US is a terrible place. In reality, our economy does a pretty good job of allocating resources and meeting demand. We have our issues, but just about anyone with a steady job can afford to buy a reasonable house.
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Same in Tulsa/OKC/KC/etc. I have a 17-minute commute (about 9 miles) each way. Our home was purchased in early-2010 after the economy had pretty much taken out many of the jobs/housing crunch. Today it's worth double what I paid for it. However, even today it's not a $300K house and there are still plenty of good entry-level homes available for just about any person/family who doesn't have crap for credit ratings. I believe my suburbs' median home price is something like $250K with a median $/sq ft of around $125/sq ft. Nothing too outrageous there, in my estimation. We didn't get hit nearly as hard in OK as other coastal states during the '08 Crash and housing bubbles. There's a price to pay for living in San Fran, Seattle, or NYC for those that like that scene. Luckily for me, there isn't much about those cities that appeals to my wife and I so we benefit from being poor, un-edumacated Okies. :)
 
Ed Haywood said:
Not really. It is just a relatively affordable economy. As an example, I live in Tampa FL, in a very nice suburban area with good schools and a 30 minute commute to downtown. Within one hour of beaches, boat ramps, world class fishing, Disney, and pro sports teams that were in the World Series, Super Bowl, and Stanley Cup last year. I have a 4 bedroom house with 3 car garage and swimming pool in a nice gated community built in the last 20 years. Until recently, comparable homes in my neighborhood ranged in the mid-300's.

Now they are in the low to mid 400's, which sounds like a shocking increase, until you consider that 20 years ago when I bought, they were in the low 200's. Taking a long term historical view, doubling of prices over 20 years is not unreasonable. All the Canadians buying second homes here seem to agree. It's not an accident that the Lightning won the Stanley Cup last year.

If you listen to the media, the US is a terrible place. In reality, our economy does a pretty good job of allocating resources and meeting demand. We have our issues, but just about anyone with a steady job can afford to buy a reasonable house.
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I meant disparity when you consider the distance between the national mean and the cost of single-family dwellings in (e.g.) the Bay area or NY/NJ/CT. I agree that the U.S. economy as a whole is doing great, but the economic variation from region to region must be pretty stark.
 
David Megginson said:
I meant disparity when you consider the distance between the national mean and the cost of single-family dwellings in (e.g.) the Bay area or NY/NJ/CT.
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Of course there is when comparing national mean to specific locality. IIRC, the average income in the bay area is something like 3x the national average. But that’s not the inly factor is housing prices. Not much land to build on in either of those places…limited supply…local restrictions may also play a factor.

Edge cases to averages.
 
TCABM said:
Of course there is when comparing national mean to specific locality. IIRC, the average income in the bay area is something like 3x the national average. But that’s not the inly factor is housing prices. Not much land to build on in either of those places…limited supply…local restrictions may also play a factor.

Edge cases to averages.
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Except that California alone has over 10% of the U.S. population, and when you add in other rich states, you're looking at big chunk of the American people living around the hot property markets, even if they occupy only a small portion of the U.S. geographically.
 
David Megginson said:
Except that California alone has over 10% of the U.S. population, and when you add in other rich states, you're looking at big chunk of the American people living around the hot property markets, even if they occupy only a small portion of the U.S. geographically.
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Apples and walnuts; makes a great salad but doesn’t have much else in common. TX (#2 in total pop behind only CA) alone is close to 9% of US population with average income 1/3d (or more) lower than CA. Same goes with state GDP. CA GDP is 1.5x TX. NY is a little lower than TX.
 
David Megginson said:
I meant disparity when you consider the distance between the national mean and the cost of single-family dwellings in (e.g.) the Bay area or NY/NJ/CT. I agree that the U.S. economy as a whole is doing great, but the economic variation from region to region must be pretty stark.
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Yes, it's a very large country, and that means a lot of diversity. Here is a really good overview of real estate appreciation over the last 20 years, which makes a good case that a few extreme markets are dragging the overall average up. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/20-years-of-home-price-changes-in-every-u-s-city/

Even within places like California, there is a lot of variation. Average prices in Sacramento county are right at $500K, up from around $400K last year. The Bay Area is bananas and should not be compared to anything. Silicon Valley is the world headquarters of the Internet, and it is literally raining money there. I went Zillow driving in Palo Alto and was flabbergasted to see 1 bedroom shacks selling for $5M.

Here's the money shot. The average housing market has doubled in price in the last 20 years. That is just 3.6% per year. Hardly the stuff of bubbles and crashes. That said, the recent COVID spike has all the signs of a short term market response to temporary conditions, and thus ripe for a correction when those conditions change.

I wouldn't say we are doing great. We are doing well for about 75% of our population and crushing about 25%.

home prices.JPG
 
David Megginson said:
I meant disparity when you consider the distance between the national mean and the cost of single-family dwellings in (e.g.) the Bay area or NY/NJ/CT. I agree that the U.S. economy as a whole is doing great, but the economic variation from region to region must be pretty stark.
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David Megginson said:
Except that California alone has over 10% of the U.S. population, and when you add in other rich states, you're looking at big chunk of the American people living around the hot property markets, even if they occupy only a small portion of the U.S. geographically.
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Most of the cost of RE in California, particularly the Bay Area, is self inflicted. Very restrictive zoning, rent control, eviction protection all add up to not a lot of incentive to build anything other than more expensive single family housing on the very limited land available. No one is building "affordable housing", unless it's government funded and then it costs multiples of what it would cost in other US regions. It becomes a bit of a vicious circle, no one can afford to live there, so only rich people do. (and a ton of homeless). Outside of the bay area and LA basin, it's a bit more sane and lower cost, always a California premium though.
 
Getting back to airplanes:
I already get the feeling the market is slowing down. I've lately seen aircraft listed with brokers who for the better part of a year were 'sold out'. A nice C182P model just changed hands for under 70k, it's only flaw: no ADSB.
My guess is, the market will now stabilize and over the coming months soften a bit. Then it will really tank in 3-5 years. Why? Many people who just bought planes were first-time buyers. A lot of them purchased in the wake of Covid. Many of them will realize in a couple of years that they don't use the plane as much as they thought, or their spouse doesn't like it, or it's just too expensive, or they'd rather use that money for a boat, or what-ever. Since they all bought a roughly the same time, many will come to this conclusion also at roughly the same time and the market will be flooded. It's a bold guess, I know. But I think it's a reasonable assumption of what's going to happen.
 
Cedric31 said:
Getting back to airplanes:
I already get the feeling the market is slowing down. I've lately seen aircraft listed with brokers who for the better part of a year were 'sold out'. A nice C182P model just changed hands for under 70k, it's only flaw: no ADSB.
My guess is, the market will now stabilize and over the coming months soften a bit. Then it will really tank in 3-5 years. Why? Many people who just bought planes were first-time buyers. A lot of them purchased in the wake of Covid. Many of them will realize in a couple of years that they don't use the plane as much as they thought, or their spouse doesn't like it, or it's just too expensive, or they'd rather use that money for a boat, or what-ever. Since they all bought a roughly the same time, many will come to this conclusion also at roughly the same time and the market will be flooded. It's a bold guess, I know. But I think it's a reasonable assumption of what's going to happen.
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I have seen the same thing, and believe the same thing. The hassle of parking a plane and annuals will grow tiresome quickly for a majority of these new owners.
 
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