Weather Reporting

J

JQ Public

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Weather is not a science, more like a black art. Yesterday, aviationweather, duats, and lm all provided metars and tafs that appeared favorable for a flight of 150 miles with a return later in the afternoon. Weather rolled in right on time but stalled across the area, was lower than predicted, and stayed longer (all night at the home airport). I bailed out about half way home and resorted to a road trip since my destination airport and many along the route never improved above 800' ceiling.
Here's the issues. VOR receiver (or operator) did not work. Vectors requested and received from ATC Approach. Landed uneventfully. Stayed 4+ hours "waiting out" the weather which never improved as forecast. Flight was often in minimal visability though pilot had "legal" vis, ground and horizontal. ARSR filed.
In hindsight, since the weather has not followed forecasted most of the year, I should have canceled after the first briefing. I was depending on the weather lifting to complete the return flight. The original departure was delayed by 2.5 hours which means there was a delay on the return flight, placing us in the middle of the expected weather. Since the front stalled and the destination never improved until morning, bailing out at an interim airport and leaving the plane was the (then) only option.
Oh, and the "pressure" was two people I disappointed several months ago because of weather. I pushed it far more than I should have.
 
You didn't fly the home leg despite the pressure. For that I applaud. The rest... I am struggling myself as a new pilot. I am stAying on the ground more than I fly these days.
 
What's the problem? Doesn't sound like you violated any rules, and made a good decision to put it on the ground and drive. Yes, weather prediction can be wrong!
 
Welcome to aviation

Tell your friends to file a complaint with whatever flavor of God they worship.

Chit happens, weather is a perfect example of that statement.
 
My whole life I always found weather forecasts to be pretty boring. Thinking more or less "they most often don't get it right, it will do whatever it does, nothing I can do about it".

Now, at the very biginning of learning to fly (three whole hours of flight time so far) I find it fascinating...and still sometimes very boring when it doesn't work out.

Had a flight scheduled this morning (Sunday) at 8. Spoke with my CFI last night, it looked iffy, but maybe possible. Storm weather with thunder and lightning was predicted but predictions for around 8 looked like it might be possible. We agreed to decide around 7. Checked again before going to bed at midnight, still looked possible but the storm was moving more quickly and the wrong direction.

This morning, 06:30 I awoke to thunder. Just pouring rain. Two minutes later a text "flight cancelled, have a good Sunday"

8 a.m. Rolls around, and damn...suns coming through, clouds breaking, clearing up. I'm not experienced enough at this point to say with any certainty but it kinda looks to me like we might have been able to be up in the air right now. Maybe I'm wrong. Visibility seems good, etc.

Oh well. According to forecasts this is only a break in the weather and more of the same as this morning is expected in a few hours or so.

I'm in eh middle of meteorology in my theory, so I have a good deal to study, and it is interesting. Bought a barometer and inexpensive "weather station". Wish it had dew point readings and wind, but seems like weather forecasting got a lot more interesting to me.

Good to hear that others still feel it is a black art. Still the weather does what it wants.
 
"Weather forecasts are wrong too often to trust, but right too often to ignore."

Pilots often become amateur prognosticators. With more experience, so will you, Bob.
 
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