Weather quandary

azure

azure

Final Approach
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azure
I'm in Montpelier VT at the moment, flew here on Friday from Michigan and was originally planning to return on Monday. Now the weather for Monday is looking unsettled and likely stormy along the entire route as a cold front approaches. In fact it looks like that front and another front behind it are going to take most of the week to move through the eastern US.

I have XM WX onboard and a crappy but usable stormscope. Since I'll be flying over Canada on the way home, I'd strongly prefer to file IFR (which is why I'm posting this in Cleared for the Approach). But I don't feel it would be wise to try to penetrate areas of embedded thunderstorms with my equipment. So which option would you choose?

1. Stay put and wait for better weather toward the end of the week (Friday or Saturday).

2. Go anyway and file IFR and ask ATC for wide deviations around areas of active weather.

3. Go anyway but file VFR or IFR with "VFR" in the altitude box and get flight following and try to stay visual, and put down if conditions don't look good up ahead.

4. Rent a car and drive home.

Option 1 means staying in a motel all week ($59 a night adds up) as I don't have camping gear with me.

I suspect option 2 is risky as ATC may not be able to give me what I ask for, and for option 3 to work I have to be prepared to put down anywhere and stick it out for as long as it takes to clear out. If things go south over Canada I could be in a real pickle as I don't have a passport (yet). Better to take the long way around the south side of Lake Erie if I take either option, but recent storm tracks have tended to favor Ohio and PA.

Option 4 means driving or flying back to get my plane later on -- likely even more expensive than option 1 since I won't have a permanent hangar here until beginning of August.

Any other options or advice from more experienced folks?
 
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What specific course of action I as a 10,000-hour ATP/CFI professional pilot might choose to do myself should not influence what you as a PP with a lot less experience should do. So, my advice to you is to do only what you feel comfortable doing, and if that means not flying home Monday, so be it. And what I advise in that sentence is exactly how I would approach the problem -- keep checking weather, but do only what I felt comfortable doing, and if that meant not flying home on the planned day, so be it
 
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Fly early in the morning,make short flights ,to check weather. File IFR and work with the controllers.
 
File IRF and go. Use the XW and divert to where the storms are waining (not building). Leave as soon as you can in the am and fly as far as you can. Stop if the weather has you trapped in and wait for it to pass over. Continue when weather permits.

Been there done that dozens of times.

I'm VFR only. ;)
 
Right now the forecast isn't all that bad for Sunday eve. Since you are already in a hotel can you knock out 2-3 or so hours before dark Sunday? I see you'll be bucking a fair headwind.

I have flown KIAG to the Detroit area. Even with passports & eAPIS it's easier to divert in the USA. Unless the weather was great, I'd stay on the South side of Lake Erie if I wanted easy options to land without return hassles.

XM weather is a big help, always have that out & don't push it. If you can't go Sunday afternoon/evening(providing the wx is O.K.) check the forcasts going into Monday morning. Most of the time, at least some part of the day has flyable VFR wx.

Knowing when to divert and land is key, MVFR isn't any fun on a longer cross-country flight either(operating VFR).
 
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A dilemma, to be sure. Good luck sorting it out!

FWIW, I highly recommend the HoJo in Norwich NY... :rolleyes: :(
 
Ifin it were me, I'd probably leave a day early and avoid all the issues. Other than that I like the short hop suggestion. But you as PIC must do whats right for you. Best of luck, Keep us advised as to what you do.
 
launch-n-land with a go-now, stay on the US side track - make your excuses for anything you had planned for today

You might spend one lousy night at an FBO or flea-bag hotel, so what? Waiting for storms to move through while on the ground isn't such a bad thing. Once a line passes, launch again, fly to the next line, land. lather rinse repeat until you are home
 
I would add use the resources out there. I ask ATC what weather they're painting, I request pireps, I ask for course advise. ATC is used to dealing with airliners that make their own decisions, once they realize you are asking for help they generally do quite a bit. Between pireps, NEXRAD, ATC, and other better equipped aircraft on frequency there is a lot of information out there if you push to get it.
 
Thanks for the suggestions guys. I've decided to stay a few more days. Only one of my apartment leads panned out, and that one has a lot of interest (iow competition). As long as I have a chance of getting some more leads, it might be worth my while. In any case, the reason I've avoided overnight cross countries until recently is the risk of hail damage unless I can be sure ahead of time of getting a hangar. Landing to wait out a thunderstorm protects only me. I've delayed takeoff from a destination because a heavy thunderstorm moved through while I was tied down, and it was a tense few minutes praying that none of the precip would come in solid form.
 
Can't help with instrument flying, not my thing, but if you haven't already try the Wayside Diner. It is just down the road from the airport. Housing in VT is tough, good luck on that.
 
you didnt mention the airplane you were flying. With that said, DELAYING for weather is always safer than any other option (it assumes you don't go flying, hence, delay). Now how it affects your pocketbook (hotel rooms, rental cars) is another story.

From a pure "what is safest" standpoint, delaying until a weather system passes is the safest, in my opinion.

do NOT play games with convective systems, thunderstorms, etc. Scattered showers, low ceilings is one thing. T-Storms a whole other story.
 
B350ATP said:
you didnt mention the airplane you were flying. With that said, DELAYING for weather is always safer than any other option (it assumes you don't go flying, hence, delay). Now how it affects your pocketbook (hotel rooms, rental cars) is another story.
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It's not a jet, if that's what you're wondering. It's a NA Cardinal RG and can't go much higher than about 12,000. As for the expense of staying extra nights, it's a lot less than what it would cost if I had to land to wait out a storm with hail.

BTW someone above mentioned a window Sunday evening, but I've been watching and there doesn't seem to have been one. There's a convective sigmet up right now for western NY, completely blocking the way around the south side of Lake Erie and too close for comfort to the over Canada route.

Tomorrow looks even worse, at least in MI.
 
ClimbnSink said:
Can't help with instrument flying, not my thing, but if you haven't already try the Wayside Diner. It is just down the road from the airport. Housing in VT is tough, good luck on that.
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Thanks for the tip. It's on the way from my motel to the airport so I've driven by it a few times already. Just haven't stopped there yet.
 
Well I made the trip back today. Filed for 6000, no joy. It turns out the MIA is 6400 at some point along my route, so they gave me 8000. According to the Winds Aloft forecast I would have had a 17 kt headwind on average, but it wasn't anywhere near that bad. The headwind was about 13 kts at first, then it went down to 5 or 6 south of Lake Ontario, and finally down to zero over Ontario. This due to a fairly strong wind out of the north, with very little westerly component, contrary to the forecast of basically westerly winds at 9000. I had asked for lower when able, but they never got back to me on that, and I was happy as a clam anyway.

This is only the second real trip I've taken that would have been a no-go without the IR. The ceiling was about 1300 feet when I departed and I was IMC fairly quickly on the ODP. Lots of bumpy IMC going over the mountains, with one worrisome cell a few miles off my course. After the Champlain Valley I was above the clouds or skimming the tops for most of the rest of the way, until Ontario where I was in and out of the centers of some clusters.

BTW, for anyone who might need to go there at some point: although KMPV has no tower or TRACON, getting an IFR clearance there is dirt simple. Although you have to get up around 5000 before they can see you, Boston Center can talk to you on their departure/approach frequency from the ground. Easy peasy!
 
azure said:
Well I made the trip back today. Filed for 6000, no joy. It turns out the MIA is 6400 at some point along my route, so they gave me 8000. According to the Winds Aloft forecast I would have had a 17 kt headwind on average, but it wasn't anywhere near that bad. The headwind was about 13 kts at first, then it went down to 5 or 6 south of Lake Ontario, and finally down to zero over Ontario. This due to a fairly strong wind out of the north, with very little westerly component, contrary to the forecast of basically westerly winds at 9000. I had asked for lower when able, but they never got back to me on that, and I was happy as a clam anyway.

This is only the second real trip I've taken that would have been a no-go without the IR. The ceiling was about 1300 feet when I departed and I was IMC fairly quickly on the ODP. Lots of bumpy IMC going over the mountains, with one worrisome cell a few miles off my course. After the Champlain Valley I was above the clouds or skimming the tops for most of the rest of the way, until Ontario where I was in and out of the centers of some clusters.

BTW, for anyone who might need to go there at some point: although KMPV has no tower or TRACON, getting an IFR clearance there is dirt simple. Although you have to get up around 5000 before they can see you, Boston Center can talk to you on their departure/approach frequency from the ground. Easy peasy!
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Come on you left out the best part. Those flights are a lot of fun. :)
 
Alexb2000 said:
Come on you left out the best part. Those flights are a lot of fun. :)
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I wish I could say it was, but it was actually kinda boring after the first half hour. The most fun part was turning into the looming clouds on takeoff and focusing on the gauges as the world turned white, and then breaking out 10 minutes later into a sea of cotton balls. Punching through the cauliflower in Canada was fun too. I expected it to be bumpier than it was.

But mostly, it was point A to point B. Transportation. A really nice way to travel, but still just transportation.

Not that I'd willingly give up this particular mode of transportation, mind you. Counting layovers I made it back as fast or faster as I could have flying commercially, and a bit cheaper too (counting fuel alone anyway).
 
JoeSelch said:
FWIW, I highly recommend the HoJo in Norwich NY... :rolleyes: :(
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Lol! For real? I live there (no, NOT at the HoJo), and that place has seen better days. 'Course, I guess the smell of weed wafting from some of the rooms, and the cops breaking down a door in a 5 a.m. raid could make for some excitement...
 
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