Weather forecasts aren’t getting better

MooneyDriver78

MooneyDriver78

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Tom
First the forecast (Euro model, 42 minutes old, but GFS is basically the same):
dc41ba06cc15cfba4a08f563c779e56e.jpg


Radar:
4494d722bb3c8266f8b310d213a21fd7.jpg


So it’s almost exactly opposite. :-(
 
The weather in the mid-Hudson Valley hasn't been all that great for weeks.
Lucky I'm retired, and can fly whenever the weather allows. Even so, I'm behind the curve for hitting my usual 150ish hrs a year.
 
I used to check three different forecasts, and average the three out. It worked pretty well, but there were a lot of times where two of them were forecasting exactly opposite things. Usually, the weather did not follow either forecast in those situations. Hopefully, it's calm and CAVU instead (but it's Florida, so the chances of that right now...sorry.). :D
 
News flash: Weather forecast differs from actual weather! Film at 11!
 
Shepherd said:
The weather in the mid-Hudson Valley hasn't been all that great for weeks.
Lucky I'm retired, and can fly whenever the weather allows. Even so, I'm behind the curve for hitting my usual 150ish hrs a year.
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It’s time for another Cub video (please)…
 
You need a forecast to tell you it's going to rain in Florida in the summer? :D
 
PaulS said:
That forecast looks almost spot in to me.
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How do you figure that? Forecast was for severe weather in S GA/AL, and rain south of Orlando with no rain between Orlando and Gainesville…actual is the opposite? This forecast was less than an hour old?
If your standard is they predicted rain in the Florida area, yeah…they got that right. I don’t need super computers to tell you it’s going to rain in Florida tomorrow.
 
I don’t think any of the models are capable of accurately forecasting when a thunderstorm will mature. Maybe I have low expectations, but that seems like a lot to ask.

it’s not the same as forecasting a front moving through.
 
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Salty said:
I don’t think any of the models are capable of accurately forecasting when a thunderstorm will mature. Maybe I have low expectations, but that seems like a lot to ask.
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I would agree if the forecast was for widespread thunderstorms,but clearly the forecast was showing 2 localized areas. I think they’re trying to portray their forecasts to be more accurate than they actually are.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I would agree if the forecast was for widespread thunderstorms,but clearly the forecast was showing 2 localized areas. I think they’re trying to portray their forecasts to be more accurate than they actually are.
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And how would you depict that on the type of chart shown?
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
How do you figure that? Forecast was for severe weather in S GA/AL, and rain south of Orlando with no rain between Orlando and Gainesville…actual is the opposite? This forecast was less than an hour old?
If your standard is they predicted rain in the Florida area, yeah…they got that right. I don’t need super computers to tell you it’s going to rain in Florida tomorrow.
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My standard is not to trust forecasts. If I see the first picture in your post, I suspect bad weather from Georgia to Florida, I know better than to believe a forecast depicts what happens to any pinpoint degree of accuracy. In my mind if a forecast is correct within a few hundred miles, it's done its job. Forecasts are just not accurate enough to make go no-go decisions without verifying what is happening in real time. In this case, you looked a couple models, then fortunately looked at real time and made your decision.

There are no quick answers for pilots trying to figure out forecasts. And there is no one, always accurate forecast.

When I got my instrument rating I stressed out over how to make weather go no-go decisions. The FAA training materials are very lacking IMO. I got surprised a few times, so I went on a quest. I discovered @scottd weather products. His products and his expertise have helped me tremendously. I subscribed to his ExWxbrief product and use it for most of my flights, especially long flights. I also watch his youtube daily (almost) discussions air live a 8 am most weekdays. You don't have to watch them live, but it is great to see how he uses weather products to figure out what is going on.

Long story short, his WxBrief product is about as accurate forecast tool as is out there. But I still wouldn't bet my life on it. Always have an out, learn how to figure out what is happening short term and leave plenty of room to escape.

There are no easy answers when it comes to weather and forecasts.
 
Any thoughts on the wide spread smoke also causing a bit of a change to the weather and forecasting challenges? I’ve noticed the air being much drier than normal for this time of year in the southeast/Midwest?
 
Skymac said:
Any thoughts on the wide spread smoke also causing a bit of a change to the weather and forecasting challenges? I’ve noticed the air being much drier than normal for this time of year in the southeast/Midwest?
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The smoke can be nasty. METARS and ASOS can be reporting 6 mile viz or greater, but once you get to 1000 AGL, there is NO horizon and the only ground you can see is just below you. Climb a bit, and you can't see the ground. A bit over a week ago, I departed NE MD and the haze went to 15,000. I logged some actual instrument, as it was.
 
I gave up long ago - the weather-guessers, not matter how flawed, are much, much better at forecasting than I'll ever be. I hit AWC for the short term view, NWS for the longer term, and rely on them. They're wrong a lot less often than I'll be - I'm not inclined to in-depth study of meteorology. I know enough not to take off on the leading edge of a cold front, stay away from T-storms, avoid icing conditions, and believe the winds aloft and turbulence predictions.
 
I live in the south GA area, so I’ve been getting some of this weather as well. It seems like during spring and early summer, it can be clear & sunny, and 30 minutes later it’ll be pouring rain. Another 30 minutes later it’s sunny again. Also it can be pouring on one side of town, but folks on the other side can be sunbathing. Not sure if it gets this way throughout the rest of the country or if it’s just the southeast.
 
It’s Florida in the summer. Just assume there are going to be thunderstorms all over the place. VFR below the clouds, it’s easy to see and stay well clear of them.
 
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