Weather for X-country trip this Saturday

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Andy who?

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Andy Who?
Hello all,

I'm hoping some of the more experienced pilots here can offer some of their weather knowledge. I'm planning a trip from KPTK (Pontiac, MI) to KAID (Anderson, IN) tomorrow. I have the plane from 8am to 4pm and was going to head down for lunch to see some old friends and then head back. I just got my license in December and feel confident in all parts of the trip except for the damn weather decision. I've checked all the forecasts and charts and know it's going to be cloudy and most likely a no go at this point. I just can't determine what the ceiling will be tomorrow. Am I missing a good source of information that could help me with that or am I looking at an early morning call to Flight service, checking the web, and seeing what the morning looks like?

Thanks in advance for any info.
 
Andy who? said:
Am I missing a good source of information that could help me with that or am I looking at an early morning call to Flight service, checking the web, and seeing what the morning looks like?
Click to expand...

That's usually how it goes.

Probably the easiest to interpret is the Area Forecast. I just looked and its showing "outlook - MVFR" for those areas. So you can expect marginal conditions - 3-5mile visibility and/or or a ceiling under 3000 feet tomorrow.
 
Wait till later in the day when the area forecast gets updated. I also pull any TAFs along my route.
 
www.AvWxWorkshops.com

It's a subscription site, but one of the best for learning what you need about aviation weather. The site's owner, ScottD is a regular here.

The new briefing system he recently installed is a great tool to pull all of the various weather products into one space.
 
For your departure point, the current discussion says:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
701 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2013


.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TODAY...AND MAIN INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS.
PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...FALLING AS RAIN AND/OR MIXTURE OF SNOW...CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW TOWARD EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. SNOW...IFR AT TIMES...WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TENDING TO BECOME NORTHEAST. EXACT TIMING OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW IS UNCERTAIN AT EACH TAF SITE...BUT A GENERAL 1 TO
3 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED...EXCEPT MBS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. ONCE SNOW DIMINISHES LATE TONIGHT...NORTHEAST FLOW OFF
LAKE HURON SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A CONTINUED
MVFR DECK WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.


FOR DTW...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH EXPECTED TO LEAD TO CEILINGS
OF 2500 TO 3000 FEET BY LATE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
HIGH ON THIS SCENARIO WITH WESTERLY WINDS PROMOTING BETTER MIXING.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS LATE TODAY AS PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADS THE TERMINAL...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TOWARD EVENING. SNOW OF VARYING INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING.​
This will change of course as the day wears on. But it's a good overview as your departure time draws closer.
 
Thanks for all the great information!!! I guess it's good to see I'm on the same page as most. Scottd takes it to a whole new level though! I'll have to check out the AvWxworkshops website. I'll probably have extra time on Saturday seeing as it looks like the weather is just not going to leave me enough of a safety margin. I was taking a first time flyer along with me so I need to make sure they have a little extra comfort level as well.
Thanks again everyone! I'm sure I'll be keeping a close eye on everything for the rest of the day and tomorrow for the learning experience.
 
Thanks again Scott! I've been checking it this morning ever since the neighbor woke me up with the snowblower!!! Certainly not a day for making my trip.
 
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