Weather Decision

MBDiagMan

MBDiagMan

Final Approach
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NorthEast Texas
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Doc
I'm in NorthEast Texas. I need to go from Bonham (F00) to Lawton, OK (KLAW) tomorrow. The decision is; drive or fly. I need to be in Lawton around 8AM.

The weather is calling for about a 33% chance of thunderstorms along the route at sunup, decreasing to about a 12% chance by 10AM. In my experience, this time of year 33% chance of thunderstorms really means a high percentage of thunderstorms over 33% of the area.

I have logged a good little bit of cross country time, but mostly on 50 + a few mile hops.

My concern is getting caught in an area where a thunderstorm forms around me. Is this a valid concern, or will I normally be able to see them and avoid?

I have pretty much made up my mind, but I thought this to be a good exercise to ask questions of the experienced and get some educational responses.

Thanks for your help!
 
MBDiagMan said:
I'm in NorthEast Texas. I need to go from Bonham (F00) to Lawton, OK (KLAW) tomorrow. The decision is; drive or fly. I need to be in Lawton around 8AM.

The weather is calling for about a 33% chance of thunderstorms along the route at sunup, decreasing to about a 12% chance by 10AM. In my experience, this time of year 33% chance of thunderstorms really means a high percentage of thunderstorms over 33% of the area.

I have logged a good little bit of cross country time, but mostly on 50 + a few mile hops.

My concern is getting caught in an area where a thunderstorm forms around me. Is this a valid concern, or will I normally be able to see them and avoid?

I have pretty much made up my mind, but I thought this to be a good exercise to ask questions of the experienced and get some educational responses.

Thanks for your help!
Click to expand...
Usually can see and avoid. Easier with XM.
 
MBDiagMan said:
I'm in NorthEast Texas. I need to go from Bonham (F00) to Lawton, OK (KLAW) tomorrow. The decision is; drive or fly. I need to be in Lawton around 8AM.
Click to expand...

You answered your own question in the first paragraph. Better fill up the car.
 
I've already pretty much made that decision. I can be a little late, no problem. My main goal was to learn from the question. Both of your responses are helpful.

I have been looking to buy a Stratus to add to my foreflight, but I can't get one before tomorrow.

I look forward to hearing more educational responses. Thanks to all.
 
Can you give us an idea of what aviation weather products you're looking at?

When must you make the decision by?

In the summer, it seems like there are always a chance of thunderstorms, but it's usually still quite flyable, depending on what type of conditions are fueling the storms.
 
I already have Foreflight on my IPhone and IPad. I love it. The Stratus product is an ADS B receiver that gives real time weather via ADS B with no monthly fee like XM.
 
MBDiagMan said:
I've already pretty much made that decision. I can be a little late, no problem. My main goal was to learn from the question. Both of your responses are helpful.

I have been looking to buy a Stratus to add to my foreflight, but I can't get one before tomorrow.

I look forward to hearing more educational responses. Thanks to all.
Click to expand...

Sorry for being so blunt in my first response.

The reason I'd drive in that scenario is that you have to be in a location at a certain time. With convection in the forecast, it could make getting there on time a little iffy, particularly if you have to return to your origin or divert to another airport because of weather. Get-there-itis would be another concern I might have. If it were somewhere you didn't have to be (or could be late to, for example), I'd say give it a shot.
 
No apology necessary. I started the thread asking for responses and you gave me a valid one.

I am not one prone to succumbing to get there itis, but you had no way to know that.

I expect to learn more in the thread.
 
I'd also drive simply because if there is a question you might get surrounded by a storm, then assume you will and do not take the chance. Of course, I'm relatively inexperienced, but that's my answer for now:)
 
Here's a good place to start to get a big picture Idea of the weather in your destination area...

http://classic.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OUN&StateCode=OK&SafeCityName=Lawton

You'll notice this discussion, from 18z...I'm assumung you're VFR?


Aviation...
widespread cloudiness will limit storm development most of today.
However...thunderstorms and rain are forecast to form late this afternoon as surface
heating finally overcomes the capping inversion. The exact
location of thunderstorms and rain formation is highly uncertain...but the eventual
outcome...a storm complex much like those of the last couple of
nights...is more certain. The storms are likely to affect many of
our taf sites by morning. As the surface front advances southeast tonight
and tomorrow...low clouds are likely to follow it...leading to
MVFR and IFR conditions much of the morning tomorrow across the
northwest 1/3 or so of OK.
 
Not an immediate answer to tomorrow's flight, but if you want to learn more about how to make these decisions, join www.AvWxWorkshops.com and spend for some one-on-one time with Scott. Major value for the dollars spent.

While Scott won't make the go/no go decision for you, he can use your flight as the "case study" to demonstrate how to pull all the information needed for you to make that decision.
 
Brad Z said:
Here's a good place to start to get a big picture Idea of the weather in your destination area...

http://classic.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=OUN&StateCode=OK&SafeCityName=Lawton

You'll notice this discussion, from 18z...I'm assumung you're VFR?


Aviation...
widespread cloudiness will limit storm development most of today.
However...thunderstorms and rain are forecast to form late this afternoon as surface
heating finally overcomes the capping inversion. The exact
location of thunderstorms and rain formation is highly uncertain...but the eventual
outcome...a storm complex much like those of the last couple of
nights...is more certain. The storms are likely to affect many of
our taf sites by morning. As the surface front advances southeast tonight
and tomorrow...low clouds are likely to follow it...leading to
MVFR and IFR conditions much of the morning tomorrow across the
northwest 1/3 or so of OK.
Click to expand...

Just pulled this update of the Area Forecast Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT MOST OF TODAY.
HOWEVER...TSRA ARE FORECAST TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
HEATING FINALLY OVERCOMES THE CAPPING INVERSION. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF TSRA FORMATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE EVENTUAL
OUTCOME...A STORM COMPLEX MUCH LIKE THOSE OF THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...IS MORE CERTAIN. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT MANY OF
OUR TAF SITES BY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES SE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW IT...LEADING TO
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE MORNING TOMORROW ACROSS THE
NW 1/3 OR SO OF OK.
 
From my flight today. Sometimes you just gotta get up there and take a look. In my experience dodging summer scattered storms, it works out most of the time. I've definitely had to divert and wait due to a storm thats popped up right over my destination, but usually thats only an hour or so.

The key is to stay where you can see. At first I was IFR at the minimum altitude 4000. I canceled and dropped to 3000 before that altitude put me in some lower clouds. I was eventually able to make it up to 6500 and over all the small cumulus.

I took a short video and radar screenshot

http://youtu.be/vOiMoHaeZqk

zegy7yje.jpg
 
MBDiagMan said:
I'm in NorthEast Texas. I need to go from Bonham (F00) to Lawton, OK (KLAW) tomorrow. The decision is; drive or fly. I need to be in Lawton around 8AM.

The weather is calling for about a 33% chance of thunderstorms along the route at sunup, decreasing to about a 12% chance by 10AM. In my experience, this time of year 33% chance of thunderstorms really means a high percentage of thunderstorms over 33% of the area.

I have logged a good little bit of cross country time, but mostly on 50 + a few mile hops.

My concern is getting caught in an area where a thunderstorm forms around me. Is this a valid concern, or will I normally be able to see them and avoid?

I have pretty much made up my mind, but I thought this to be a good exercise to ask questions of the experienced and get some educational responses.

Thanks for your help!
Click to expand...

Leave an hour early and go. :dunno:

Your definition of 33% TS is wrong. I don't get nervous under 50%. See and avoid.
 
Thanks for all the responses.

As it turned out, the forecast kept changing and got to a point where it looked like I could make it in the morning, but they then began forecasting thuderstorms for my home field in the evening. I got back by my home field about Sunset and there were indeed active thunderstorms at the airport and surrounding area.

The whole thing was very educational even though I didn't see it from the air. Studying the various weather forecast formats everything from TV weather, to TAF's and DUATS and then watching it play out, along with the responses from you guys was all worthwhile.

I will have to be doing some work in Lawton again within the next few weeks, so I feel better prepared to analyze the weather for such a trip.

Thanks to all,
 
This is how you learn!!!!!

Nicely done. :yes:

You do not need to fear weather, just respect it. ;)

With the education you gathered this trip apply it to the next. Set reasonable minimums and honor them. There is nothing wrong with flying with scattered thunderstorms in the area, just stay out of them. ;)
 
Last edited:
That kind of forecast is a normal cross country fly able day here in the NE US. It's not NE TX, or SE or West TX but I suspect it's typical weather for you too. Weather you will want to learn about and figure out when, where and how you can fly it.

Don't even bother starting without on-board NEXRAD and the other WX goodies.

Plan a trip, analyze the forecasts, look out the window and when comfortable, try the flight.

For me in the summer in NC, most days will have at least pm Tstrms. Morning activity or frontal systems get special attention. Cloud coverage will help determine whether its cruising above clud base or below.

On a typical scattered Tstrm day, NEXRAD makes tactical avoidance of storms easy and often fun. Bottom line is that you don't ever want to get caught up in one or put into a corner by a bunch of them. But you do have tools to avoid that.

Your go, no-go criteria will change with experience. The key is to pick some days to get experience you are comfortable and fly. But the best tool is just saying no.
 
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