Weather advice for trip to KBLV tomorrow

[Jps19602002@mac.com]

Planning a trip from KDAY to KBLV tomorrow afternoon and then on to KDBQ. The stationary front that's been there for the past few days raises the question of how much Thunderstorm and more severe weather risk there might be.

What advice could I get about what to expect and what conditions should I look for to decide whether to go?

I am IFR rated (obviously) with XM and ADS-B in weather through Stratus and Foreflight. I fly an A36 with Turbo Normalizing, oxygen and FIKI TKS.

Thoughts?

 

[frfly172]

I would watch the weather closely,the weather usually gets bad in the afternoons in that part of the country. The front doesn't seem to want to move quickly. Early morning might work.

 

[DeckardTrinity]

Well right now (1615Z) there is a pretty severe T-storm parked directly over KBLV, so obviously that's a no-go for today until that particular storm passes through. But then there are also a lot of LIFR METARs all along the route, and at least 100 nm on either side of the corridor, so not a lot of good alternates if WX is bad at your first stop.

The progs for this week have been miserable ever since Saturday, and this is a typical weather pattern for April, having stationary fronts, troughs, and occluded fronts all mixing together over the eastern half of the country. I read on wunderground that this is mainly caused by a large area of high pressure over the SW, but I imagine also the new influx of moisture from the gulf is also helping to fuel the T-storms.

I'm planning a trip from my home base at KMMU to KROA and then on to KGVL this coming Friday. Progs are not looking favorable at all, so may have to push to Saturday. But... I did a simulated go/no-go decision this morning, and based on the WX then, would have attempted the flight (IFR in a C-172SP w/GPS + AP, Stratus 2 + Foreflight). It looks like I would not have made it all the way to ROA because, despite a MVFR forecast, it was socked in with 600' ceilings at the time I would have arrived, so would have had to stop earlier at KSHD where it's been VFR all day. And then of course I would be stuck there the rest of the day due to the wall of water that is slowly moving along the VA / NC border.

 

[DeckardTrinity]

I just want to point this out as well - here is the area forecast for N. GA

NRN...BKN-OVC015-025 TOP 160. VIS 3-5SM BR. 14Z BKN030. ISOL
-SHRA. BECMG 1719 BKN040 LYRD FL250. OCNL VIS 3SM SCT -SHRA/TSRA.
CB TOP FL400. OTLK...MVFR SHRA TSRA 23Z VFR SHRA TSRA.

The reality? LIFR (ceilings 200 - 400') all morning at virtually every METAR site. I am playing very cautious with this weather pattern this week.

 

[Turningfinal]

Planning a trip from KDAY to KBLV tomorrow afternoon and then on to KDBQ. The stationary front that's been there for the past few days raises the question of how much Thunderstorm and more severe weather risk there might be.

What advice could I get about what to expect and what conditions should I look for to decide whether to go?

I am IFR rated (obviously) with XM and ADS-B in weather through Stratus and Foreflight. I fly an A36 with Turbo Normalizing, oxygen and FIKI TKS.

Thoughts?

I suggest getting the car fueled up for this one. The severe weather threat from this system is pretty widespread and forecast to hang around until Friday.

 

[Jps19602002@mac.com]

Just thought I would follow up with what I actually did. I ended up delaying my departure by 2 hours when it became apparent that the heaviest cells will have moved through the destination area. I planned a route to the south and east of the heaviest radar returns at 10,000. Once launched, I got clearance to 14,000 that kept me above all of the heavy rain clouds. By running south, I was able to loop around the backside without much more than some heavy rain and light chop. The toughest part was the winds at destination were 19 G 32 but down the long runway at Scott AFB. Just brought it in hot to avoid gust stalls and let the energy burn off in ground effect.

All in all, I am glad I went and have to say that with XM and ADS-B through Foreflight, it's really amazing how much situational awareness you have. There's no excuse for running into something you're not supposed to be tangling with.

 

[ahkahn]

I flew that same day between Knoxville, Owensboro, KY, and Chicago. All I can say is that it was the first time I used the Stormscope in the plane and I am completely sold on it. Between the Stratus/ForeFlight combo and the Stormscope I was able to pick through and around cells that others wouldn't have dared to. I had several controllers ask me to confirm onboard weather. Two great tools to have!