Wait Five Minutes, It'll Change

[skyflyer8]

These have to be high up there on the most inaccurate TAFs I've ever seen... check out the current METARs listed above the two TAFs:

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KGRB 051553Z 28014G27KT 10SM CLR 16/02 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 27027/1547 SLP134 T01610022[/FONT]

KGRB 051131Z 0512/0612 26009KT P6SM FEW120 SCT200
FM052200 23008KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
FM060100 04005KT P6SM SCT040 OVC080
FM060400 07008KT 5SM -RA BR BKN035 OVC060
FM060800 04010KT 4SM RA BR BKN015 OVC030

[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KATW 051545Z 27019G26KT 10SM SKC 16/00 A2994[/FONT]

KATW 051131Z 0512/0612 26009KT P6SM FEW120 SCT200
FM052200 25006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200
FM060100 04005KT P6SM SCT040 OVC080
FM060400 07008KT 5SM -RA BR BKN035 OVC060
FM060800 04010KT 4SM RA BR BKN015 OVC030

Wow. A while ago I was moping that I couldn't fly because someone last-minute cancelled on me, and now checking the METARs I'm glad I'm not up there. I know weather is highly variable, but I almost never see our wind forecast off by upwards of 18 knots.

/rant

 

[dmccormack]

Last Thursday I planned to fly to CKB in the am, and return in the afternoon.

Forecast:

TAF KMGW 011126Z 0112/0212 00000KT P6SM SCT250 FM011500 21008KT
P6SM BKN250 FM020100 18004KT P6SM SCT250=Actual:
KMGW 012053Z 23009G17KT 10SM CLR 28/01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T02780011
56026

I waited a bit until 1830 Local to launch (by then gusts had reduced a bit).