VFR Drivers - What 2-3 day forecast weather do you trust most?

kenjr

kenjr

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KenJr
I'm planning my first overnight (2 night) trip from Austin, TX to Lubbock, TX this weekend. All my prior XC's have been day flights so pretty easy to lock in on the weather the day of and make the call. On this trip I'm planning on leaving here Friday and coming back sometime on Sunday. This is the longest one as well - almost 280nm's so the weather can be very different on both ends.

I use DUAT's, of course, weathermeister and the NWS. All three have slightly different forecasts for Sunday. I'm not worried about Friday - looks nice - but easy to make the game time decision based on weather RIGHT THEN. Problem is of course, you get to Sunday and end up with marginal weather and then you're kinda hosed.

I'm not sure where all the other weather places source their info but it's odd to me how drastically different some of them can be.

Just curious...not asking anyone to make my decision for me of course, I'm PIC (and overly cautious to boot...been working to expand my personal minimums from my comfortable scattered at 30,000ft :))...but if you're flying VFR and coming back in a couple days (Sunday) and have this as a forecast on NWS - do you go? What other tools do you use to make 2-3 day out decisions on go/no go's for XC's?

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 41 TO 46. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
 
The best tool I've found at that timescale is the National Digitial Forecast Database, graphical.weather.gov. Pay attention to the cloud cover and wind gusts. This site is unique in that it gives you a spatial view of the forecast, though it doesn't distinguish between altitudes (generally, just between surface and not-surface).

All the data comes from the same model, for everything.

Partly cloudy is probably a "go," except for mountain range crossings. Even small ones tend to collect the clouds. Mostly cloudy or overcast depends on how high the clouds are.

2 days out, you can use the prog charts off ADDS. Know where the fronts are, as a cold front will often concentrate the clouds -- though it far from a guarantee of IMC. And fronts frequently move substantially differently from the forecast.

For one day out, there isn't a substitute for the Skew-T's, rucsoundings.noaa.gov. But that's just another presentation of the same model.

Air Sports Network tries to make a ceiling prediction, but it's garbage.
 
thanks - those are both awesome (the graphical.weather.gov and the link from weirdjim).

I wish something was good at predicting the ceilings...one things to see 40-50% cloud cover...another if it's MVFR at 1800' or if it's 50% cover at 20k feet...

(EDIT: forgot about that usair site - i do use that from time to time and find it to be fairly accurate...and it does show ceilings...).

What I was worried about - and it does show (for Georgetown, TX area) just until 6am and it's going to be foggy/mist and what looks like LIFR conditions with less than a 1/2 mile visibility at 200-400'. I'll have to give it a bit to see if they are expecting it to lift...and how much...but that's my main concern right now. I don't think I'll have any problem getting out of Lubbock on Sunday...but don't want dive down to try to get underneath something that's already marginal.
 
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I live on the east side of Lake Michigan. I don't trust any forecasts.
 
BTW, on the usairnet, note that the wind speed is an average. It's easy enough to find out from other sources if wind is gusty. If it IS gusty, factor that into the average and you can get a good idea.

Also note all the wind direction changes in the Lubbock forecast for the next few days. Must mean some converging fronts. In my experience when it's like this, the forecast can change pretty quickly.

Hope this helps.
 
yeah there's a big front moving through right now - going to hit us down here later today with 30mph + winds...humid now...gonna get real dry and windy later and clear up nice tomorrow. Like I said, I feel good about tomorrow...it's getting back on Sunday that has me concerned at this point. I feel like this one is going to come down to the wire...

I'll give FSS a call tomorrow and see what they think about it as well...just keep watching all of these and make the best decision I can.
 
EdFred said:
I live on the east side of Lake Michigan. I don't trust any forecasts.
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This is important.

The weather is under no obligation to do what the forecast says it's going to do.

I've seen fronts linger for days unforecast. I've found 20+ knot winds over the high mountains when forecast calm. I've found 45 knots of wind shear up to 3500 feet when the forecast said 15. And I've seen clear blue sky when forecast mostly cloudy.

It gets worse downwind of large bodies of water or significant terrain (and it doesn't have to be that high to get microclimates -- we VERY often see clear sky to the south, but IMC through the Golden Gate, and the forecasts don't distinguish much), but it's an issue anywhere.
 
Another really helpful aid is reading the "Aviation Forecast Discussion" at AviationWeather.gov found under the TAF/FA menu on the left (here is a direct link http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/afd/).

In addition to forecasts others have mentioned (which are based on computer models), the Forecast Discussions are actually written by (human) aviation weather specialists in each of the NOAA locations. It's almost like they are talking to you and sharing their interpretation of the TAF and other forecasts impacting the area.
 
EdFred said:
I live on the east side of Lake Michigan. I don't trust any forecasts.
Click to expand...

I live on the east side of Florida, and I don't trust any forecasts greater than about 12 hours. And I take those with a grain of salt. If I am planning a multi-day x-country, I make sure that I do not HAVE to be back for at least 2 days after my scheduled return. That also leaves a little room for mechanical failure. When we flew from Daytona to Phoenix we planned to be back 3 days before we absolutely had to be back. As it turned out we were only one day over schedule so we enjoyed an extra couple of days at nice stops near home.
 
Good advice, have fun!

Best weather report is looking out your window and maintaining personal minimums. ;)
 
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I would say anything from the NOAA sites gets my vote. I prefer to look at the data most of the other sites try to interpret.

I love the new http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ and it seems very accurate compared to everything else I have tried to rely on for longer XC flights. I like how you can really try to make your own decision based on what is going to happen visually.

I also like the hour by hour charts on the bottom right of aviationweather.gov site.
 
Geico266 said:
Good advice, have fun!

Best weather report is looking out your window and maintaining personal minimums. ;)
Click to expand...

Well, that's the problem. I don't know what my personal minimums are yet. :) So far they've been clear skies. Wind isn't a huge deal for me...I know what my min's are there since I've flown in all kinds of crazy stuff with a CFI who had a penchant for making me land on the 'off' runway on windy days.

So, I've never flown in anything MVFR except in training and honestly then I wasn't paying that much attention since I knew it was kinda crappy but I had my CFI with me telling me what to do.

So, I'm that place now (120'ish hours) where I need to push a little bit to see what those limitations are. Honestly, I don't think I've ever flown with my PPL when the visibility wasn't at least 6-10 miles.

What I may end up doing on this trip is sending my wife home on Sunday morning on a SWA flight and then working my way down on my own. If I have to stop, fine. I can get back up and try to poke around and see what's going on with the option to turn around always available...and without my wife with me which will take a tremendous amount of stress off of me.

I'll keep looking at stuff for the next 24 hours and see what's going on. My main concern and this point looking at the info available to me is that it's going to start LIFR at KGTU early on Sunday...low ceiling, foggy. I just don't know how much that is going to lift as it heats up. Maybe enough to sneak in under partly cloudy skies and a ceiling I'm comfortable with (would probably guess around 3000' is about where that would need to be) with at least 5-6 miles of visibility. The other big problem is that the weather gets worse in the evening and stays pretty bad early in the week with overcast/cloudiness and showers currently forecasted...so it's not like I can just wait it out overnight and have an easy window early on Monday.
 
The best thing I can say it that it is good that you recognize the problems. I don't think I have ever been on an extended x-cross country where I wasn't checking the weather forecasts every chance I could. I have cut several trips short because the weather was "iffy".

If having your wife along would cause you (and her) stress, your plan to put her on a commercial ride is a good one. On the other hand, if she is up to it, a second pair of eyes during that marginal weather can be invaluable. Sometimes it is hard to look for your destination airport or to remember (or write down) ATC instructions when you are struggling to keep the ship upright. Besides, how would she feel if she was sipping a scotch in 1st class and you wound up killing yourself? :no:

kenjr said:
Well, that's the problem. I don't know what my personal minimums are yet. :) So far they've been clear skies. Wind isn't a huge deal for me...I know what my min's are there since I've flown in all kinds of crazy stuff with a CFI who had a penchant for making me land on the 'off' runway on windy days.

So, I've never flown in anything MVFR except in training and honestly then I wasn't paying that much attention since I knew it was kinda crappy but I had my CFI with me telling me what to do.

So, I'm that place now (120'ish hours) where I need to push a little bit to see what those limitations are. Honestly, I don't think I've ever flown with my PPL when the visibility wasn't at least 6-10 miles.

What I may end up doing on this trip is sending my wife home on Sunday morning on a SWA flight and then working my way down on my own. If I have to stop, fine. I can get back up and try to poke around and see what's going on with the option to turn around always available...and without my wife with me which will take a tremendous amount of stress off of me.

I'll keep looking at stuff for the next 24 hours and see what's going on. My main concern and this point looking at the info available to me is that it's going to start LIFR at KGTU early on Sunday...low ceiling, foggy. I just don't know how much that is going to lift as it heats up. Maybe enough to sneak in under partly cloudy skies and a ceiling I'm comfortable with (would probably guess around 3000' is about where that would need to be) with at least 5-6 miles of visibility. The other big problem is that the weather gets worse in the evening and stays pretty bad early in the week with overcast/cloudiness and showers currently forecasted...so it's not like I can just wait it out overnight and have an easy window early on Monday.
Click to expand...
 
JOhnH said:
Besides, how would she feel if she was sipping a scotch in 1st class and you wound up killing yourself? :no:
Click to expand...

Well, appreciate the concern...but me putting her on a commercial flight isn't so that I can go do stupid stuff. She's already puckering the whole time anyway...the last thing I need is to try to manage her additional stress and try to fly the airplane. Her eyes would probably be useless because at the point I'd need them they'd be pressed hard close. :yes:

I enjoy the 'adventure' of flying so being delayed somewhere watching the weather waiting for a hole is fine by me. But we've got 3 kids at home and a mother-in-law watching them over the weekend that has to work on Monday so having my wife out there with me any longer than need be just adds additional stress I don't need. It would be a great opportunity for me to push my limits a bit though and I certainly welcome that challenge.
 
EdFred said:
I live on the east side of Lake Michigan. I don't trust any forecasts.
Click to expand...

East side of Michigan is easy to forecast. Is it winter? 100% chance of snow. Is it summer? 50% chance of snow :)
 
Be prepared to spend an extra night, rent a car, or fly commercial standby. That's a must multi day VFR.
 
None really.

I travel all over the country at any given point...things have changed so much in the past i'm more of a "see it to believe it" kinda person when it comes to 2-3 days out. Sometimes you can only get a general idea at best.
 
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Weather underground use it for both the airplane and boating. Has proved to be very good in the long run.
 
2-3 days out would be a "big picture" and believe it or not, I start with local TV stations weather forecasts. They all have websites and they seem to be the closest to right with big picture systems. Once you have the big picture, you can start narrowing the forecast to be "aviation" specific.
 
I like to read the Forecast Discussions on the NWS pages. There you get the forecasters' own stream-of-consciousness rationales, doubts, confessions and ponderings that go into the published forecasts.

A forecast may say simply "partly cloudy with 20% chance of rain through Thursday." But the valuable info might be in the Discussion, when the forecaster says things like, "The models are so screwed up and inconsistent that we can't make head or tails out of them. We have no clue what's happening with that cold airmass, so we just went with climatology through the rest of the week. We give up."

The discussions are sometimes funny, but often educational.
 
Mike Boehler said:
2-3 days out would be a "big picture" and believe it or not, I start with local TV stations weather forecasts. They all have websites and they seem to be the closest to right with big picture systems. Once you have the big picture, you can start narrowing the forecast to be "aviation" specific.
Click to expand...

Yup.......

My best luck has been to use this map in motion...

http://www.intellicast.com/national/radar/current.aspx?animate=true

And then the satellite loop using this...

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/PacificSatellite.aspx?animate=true

And thrown in the jetstream using this....

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

The "big" picture will start to paint a decent picture of the next few days... At least for me it works...
 
Pilawt said:
I like to read the Forecast Discussions on the NWS pages. There you get the forecasters' own stream-of-consciousness rationales, doubts, confessions and ponderings that go into the published forecasts.

A forecast may say simply "partly cloudy with 20% chance of rain through Thursday." But the valuable info might be in the Discussion, when the forecaster says things like, "The models are so screwed up and inconsistent that we can't make head or tails out of them. We have no clue what's happening with that cold airmass, so we just went with climatology through the rest of the week. We give up."

The discussions are sometimes funny, but often educational.
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Are you talking about this discussion:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=EWX

or this one:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/products/afd/

I like the latter but it doesn't seem to forecast anything other than a short period. The former has a short and long term forecast and appears to be an interpretation of all the info vs just what a model is showing.
 
Looks like a bumpy ride into Lubbock on Friday but Austin on Sunday could be a no go for a VFR arrival in the morning. That's simply pulling up a tv station at each city

TAF Friday 10:00 am local. 230@23g39. I'm not taking my wife. She'd have the nutcrackers out as soon as we taxied to the ramp.
 
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How about: "Never trust a weather report".
I can't tell you how many times I've flown into IMC conditions while the briefer is telling me the entire area is CAVU. I had a guy get snarky with me a couple of weeks ago when I tried to give him a PIREP, telling him it was snowing like the end of the world less than 3 miles from the tower, and he argued with me. After the 5th or 6th pilot told him the same thing he finally decided to look out a window or something.
 
kenjr said:
I'm planning my first overnight (2 night) trip from Austin, TX to Lubbock, TX this weekend.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 41 TO 46. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50.
Click to expand...

I know this is off topic, but as you begin a bunch of hand-wringing over several planned vacation flights, while watching the WX forecasts for 10, 7 and 5 days out. And once you find yourself stuck in a hotel room, calling out of work, waiting out unforecast weather of 2 sm, light rain and a 1200 foot ceiling, you'll realize the utility of an IFR rating.

This only happened to me once and I started my IFR training.

On topic, I usually just use WeatherBug.com on my iPad, iPhone or laptop for forecasts starting at 5, 6 or 7 days out. I don't use ADDS weather, DUATS or DUAT until 24 hours before I fly. WeatherBug has been extremely accurate for the basic forecasts. The prog charts on the NWS fills in some gaps. I have XM WX on my 796 for my final line of defense and I just bought the Garmin GDL39 3D, which should be in by tomorrow 2-21-14. If it's good, I'll drop the XM WX.

Gene
 
I hear you on the IFR. I'm already going to do it - just waiting for the group to agree on a few avionics upgrades and once that's done I'm starting. I knew I was going to that before I even started my PPL.

And yes, if your IFR you don't really need to worry that much about what the weather is going to do - just file IFR and you're done. VFR obviously a different story.

By all accounts it looks like it's going to hang on Sunday - going to be crappy in the AM but will clear out for the afternoon and we should be able to sneak in between 12-6 without too many problems.
 
I have flown vfr since 2008 with my family(4). I do not lower my personal minimums with family on board. Only with a cfi or solo. My personal minimums started out very high after flight training. In 270+ hrs we had to wait 4 extra days to get out of Florida on a scheduled 7 day trip. Some trips we headed home a day early or later. If we HAVE to be back from a 2+ day trip and the wx looks mvfr returning, then we cancel. No biggie. Always be as prepared as possible...night current, direct crosswind current to 25 kts or aircraft max, under the hood current, on board wx, synthetic vision, two flashlights, handheld radio, food, clothing, water, blankets, tools, 1 gal ziplocks, paper towels, little john, cash, spare glasses, papyrus maps, first aid kit, fire ext, etc.

Now on to your trip. After looking at all of the things that I normally look at a day out from departure on a three day trip we would go. This is just me. You have to study and make your own decision. Tomorrow, I would be prepared for winds. Early Sunday AM, I would be watching that cold front position(temperature/dewpoint gradient, wind shift). I would either want to be out ahead of it or pass through it while it is in the relatively dry air up North. I would not want to arrive near Austin with Sunday's front, as any southerly winds Fri-Sun will bring moisture North. Moisture with a cold front= precipitation/low ceilings/gustiness.

The first thing I did was read the AFD then looked at a bunch more...
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LUB&issuedby=LUB&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/CustomGraphicLoop/sfcmap_None_anim.gif
http://coolwx.com/ptype/
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/MAV.BCIG_023.html
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KLBB&state=TX
http://www.myfoxlubbock.com/weather/default.aspx
http://weather.cod.edu/labs/fronts.ppt
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_dewp.gif

I always look up the nearest sky cameras like these on departure day for my enroute cities and destination if departing later in the day. Most will have a play button and are very up to date. Nothing like seeing the wx versus reading about it.
http://www.connectamarillo.com/weather/radar.aspx?type=sky_cam
http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/webcams.html

Have fun! Don't hesitate to head for the nearest airport to wait it out or make a 180. Let us know if you have any questions and give us a trip report when you get home.
 
2-3 days I use the NOAA prog charts.
Longer than that, I watch accuweather's site.
 
EdFred said:
I live on the east side of Lake Michigan. I don't trust any forecasts.
Click to expand...

I live in Arkansas I don't trust what I see outside half the time.

Most forecast are no good until about 2 days out. Especially this winter!

Oh I like your avatar. You let Jeb fly your plane !?! :yikes:
 
RV10flyer said:
Have fun! Don't hesitate to head for the nearest airport to wait it out or make a 180. Let us know if you have any questions and give us a trip report when you get home.
Click to expand...

Thanks will do for sure. I'll have my camera's up and if I have to practice my steep turn 180 it'll be available for the world to see. :)

It'll probably be fine...I'm just overly cautious at this point...and not afraid to admit it. Especially with precious cargo aboard.
 
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