Unpressurized Malibu

Ken Ibold

Ken Ibold

Final Approach
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Ken Ibold
What the heck is Piper thinking? The Matrix -- an unpressurized version of the Malibu Mirage -- will be virtually the same as the Mirage except for pressurization -- and will cost $300K less new.

IMO, the whole reason to tolerate the Malibu's huge maintenance expense and hassle, not to mention engine quirks, is for the benefit that pressurization bestows. Going 190 knots in a single at 15,000 feet with tubes up your nose doesn't take an airplane that needs $20,000 annuals.

Those people may appear to have lost their minds, but there may be hidden method to the madness. Remember Piper's plan to create a new headquarters -- ostensibly tied to the jet's manufacturing site. Remember the company is now run by investment bankers who have expressed, uh, concern about supporting old airframes. Go with me here. Relocate the entire company, ditch the tooling for the Saratoga line and replace the Saratoga TC -- the company's second-best selling airplane -- with one that eats it up on paper, and which uses the same tooling as its other popular models.

That strategy truncates the need to support PA-32s (sell it to another company).

So Piper now has what could be called a single engine Navajo.
 
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Remember that I'm the guy who predicted that nobody would pay over $200,000 for a C172 and that Shaq was too slow to make it in the NBA, so my powers of divining aren't too sharp.
 
gibbons said:
It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Remember that I'm the guy who predicted that nobody would pay over $200,000 for a C172 and that Shaq was too slow to make it in the NBA, so my powers of divining aren't too sharp.
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And I'm the guy who flew a Pitts to Gastons, so my common sense is suspect.
 
Think pf the insurance savings for transitioning pilots as Pipier upsells them :rolleyes:

Think of the production line savings :rolleyes:

Think of the sales pitch :hairraise:
 
Ken Ibold said:
What the heck is Piper thinking? The Matrix -- an unpressurized version of the Malibu Mirage -- will be virtually the same as the Mirage except for pressurization -- and will cost $300K less new.
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But still... $757,000 for a plane that doesn't get very good numbers unless you go high and wear nose straws. And still... $757,000!!! :eek:

The market segment for this is almost nonexistent. Like Kate says, it might attract those folks who'd want a 6-seat Cirrus, but if they have $757K to blow, they probably could afford the Cirrus jet, which I sat in yesterday and is very roomy and ergonomically very nice as well.

Piper is on crack, and they're killing themselves slowly.

Oh, one other thing I noticed: They do not have ONE SINGLE THING at their booth that mentions that they even sell four-seaters any more. The posters start at the top with the Jet and move down through the Meridian, Mirage, Matrix, Saratoga, and 6X. No mention at all of the Arrow, Archer, or Warrior.

Maybe Jay was right? :dunno:
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Oh, one other thing I noticed: They do not have ONE SINGLE THING at their booth that mentions that they even sell four-seaters any more. The posters start at the top with the Jet and move down through the Meridian, Mirage, Matrix, Saratoga, and 6X. No mention at all of the Arrow, Archer, or Warrior.
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Piper has considered the Warrior, Arrow and Seminole as trainers only for the last several years. Taking them out of the mix, Piper sold only 6 Archers in the first half of the year.

Think again about Bass' position on supporting old products -- which he has said publicly makes no sense. It doesn't take a stretch to imagine the PA-28 line shut down along with the PA-32, and have a downsized Malibu airframe fill that niche. That does a couple of things. It improves factory efficiency AND it cuts off both the liability tail and the product support tail for that big hunk of 1970s airframes out there. It also removes the low-margin product in favor of high-margin product (And the margin IS high -- how else could they cut more than $300,000 off the price of a Mirage just by not installing an outflow valve, controller and heat exchanger?)

The management of Piper has made it clear their priority is selling airplanes, not supporting them. Make support more difficult, and perhaps more people will pony up for new. That seems shortsighted, but these guys are investment bankers, and short-term return is the game in that industry.
 
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Supposedly they have 100 orders for this plane.

Cloning and morphing airframes is a long tradition - look at the ragwing Pipers, and the whole Cherokee line.
 
The difference between a new Matrix price ($750k) and a good used Navajo price ($250k) buys a huge amount of fuel and maintenance. For around $450k you can get a pristine Navajo - new engines/new paint/new interior/new avionics - and still have $300k left for operations.

Still they will sell the Matrix b/c there are a large number of people who cannot see themselves flying a Navajo.
 
Arnold said:
The difference between a new Matrix price ($750k) and a good used Navajo price ($250k) buys a huge amount of fuel and maintenance. For around $450k you can get a pristine Navajo - new engines/new paint/new interior/new avionics - and still have $300k left for operations.

Still they will sell the Matrix b/c there are a large number of people who cannot see themselves flying a Navajo.
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I have talked to a number of manufacturers about this kind of dynamic. They are convinced there are two kinds of owners/potential owners: those to whom aging aricraft matters and those to whom it does not. Several have told me privately they more or less blow off veteran pilots who have "owned their 210 for 23 years and can't imagine paying what a new airplane costs." Instead, they focus their efforts on relatively new pilots -- who tend to see "new" as desirable and "old" as out of the question.

Oh, and you can also buy a virtually remanufactured Navajo for $1 MM+ through Mike Jones. I've picked over his airplanes. You can't tell it from a factory fresh airplane. Quite remarkable.
 
I don't get it either. Pressurization was the big draw and what everyone paid the big premium in both price and maint on those planes. Without pressurization, that plane has no real appeal.
 
Just to play the other side here. This thing interests me if I decided that newer = better.


1. Range/Payload envelope is quite good.

2. Doesn't the pressurization add significant dollars in mx?

3. Doesn't the pressurization add significant strain on the turbo and engine? Due to this issue don't the fuel specifics get substantially impacted?

4. I need six seats and the ability to haul stuff

5. I want to move up the ladder. Insurers are going crazy with the cost of insuring pressurized airframes. I have 600 hours and fly a FG Saratoga. I've checked the insurance situation, no way am I going to get insured in anything pressurized without taking an intermediate step.

6. Most of my trips are 400 miles or less, with many being around 250 miles.


James T. Dean
 
James_Dean said:
Just to play the other side here. This thing interests me if I decided that newer = better.


1. Range/Payload envelope is quite good.

2. Doesn't the pressurization add significant dollars in mx?

3. Doesn't the pressurization add significant strain on the turbo and engine? Due to this issue don't the fuel specifics get substantially impacted?

4. I need six seats and the ability to haul stuff

5. I want to move up the ladder. Insurers are going crazy with the cost of insuring pressurized airframes. I have 600 hours and fly a FG Saratoga. I've checked the insurance situation, no way am I going to get insured in anything pressurized without taking an intermediate step.

6. Most of my trips are 400 miles or less, with many being around 250 miles.
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All of your points are valid, and I agree that on paper the Matrix looks good for someone in the Saratoga/A36 class who wants a little more performance. The Mirage has been way tarted up over the years and its useful load stinks. (They still insist on putting the radar pod on the wing -- which is absent from the Matrix -- despite its limited utility.) However, I think it's reasonable to assume that maintenance history will be similar to the Mirage, with certain exceptions. First, the pressurization system itself is one of the more reliable systems on the airplane, so you're not saving much by not having it. A bigger savings comes from something little -- the removal of the storm window on the pilot window on the Matrix. That's been a bugaboo on the Malibu/Mirage for years because there's not enough material underneath it and the side window keeps cracking. In addition, keeping the Matrix lower most of the time *might* aid in engine cooling somewhat. I believe the Matrix has the same twin turbo as the Mirage, but the demand on the engine without pressurization may be reduced enough that a single turbo could be enough, reducing engine heat even more. That was probably a certification decision. The Mirage has a lot of complicated systems, starting with the 90-degree rotation of the nose gear on retraction, that have nothing to do with pressurization.

If I had the money I'd own a late model Malibu with the Continental 550. That was the best of the bunch when it comes to piston powered PA 46s. One friend of mine who put 1000 hours on his Mirage before converting it to turbine power, has this to say about the Malibu/Mirage ownership experience: "The bottom line for the PA46 is like what Winston Churchill said about democracy: it is the worst form of government, except all others. The same applies to the PA46. It is truly a pain in the ass to own, but I would not trade it for anything. You just have to go in with open eyes about the intense maintenance required, but it is truly worth the effort. It is a wonderful machine, and I am confident you would be happy with it."

Now, the question that remains is the question we started with. Is the value still there without the benefit of pressurization?

Edit: I just noticed your statement about typical leg length. You would spend the first half of the flight climbing and the second half descending. The climb rate is anemic because the engine really heats up at Vy. You have to climb at Vy+10 or so, which gives you about 500 fpm.
 
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Ken Ibold said:
(They still insist on putting the radar pod on the wing -- which is absent from the Matrix -- despite its limited utility.)
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And when I looked in the cockpit at expo, there was a placard on the panel that said that the radar data was "not to be used to fly in the area of thunderstorms" or somesuch. What the heck good is that???

The Mirage has a lot of complicated systems, starting with the 90-degree rotation of the nose gear on retraction, that have nothing to do with pressurization.
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That's still true of the Matrix though, isn't it?

Now, the question that remains is the question we started with. Is the value still there without the benefit of pressurization?
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When I got in the plane, I thought "This is the kind of plane executives would like." Then I looked up at the oxygen hookups, imagined a planeload of executives with straws up their noses, shook my head, and got back out.

I don't think they're gonna sell well. Even if they do, they'll be selling to the folks that can't afford the higher-end models and thus probably won't be able to afford to fly the Matrix very much. I predict a relatively high accident rate, poor sales, etc...

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Piper is dead dead dead.
 
JohnR said:
Supposedly they have 100 orders for this plane.
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I don't buy that for a second. :no: If they got 100 orders on the first day (and I saw that assertion too), they're selling 'em almost as fast as Cessna was selling Skycatchers at OSH (note that OSH is 10 times bigger than AOPA, and the Skycatcher costs about 1/8th of what the Matrix costs).

100 orders, Piper? I have only two words to say to that.

B.

S.
 
Henning said:
No....way....in....hell. For their jet I could believe, for this morphadite thing, no way.
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Like they say, Henner, ther'e's no accounting for taste...

Of course if it were me and my partners wanting to spend that kind of money, we'd be flying a 407 like the one in my current avatar :D
 
I don't think Henning is questioning that Piper said it, he (like a lot of us) just doesn't believe it's true.
 
gibbons said:
I don't think Henning is questioning that Piper said it, he (like a lot of us) just doesn't believe it's true.
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Well, keep in mind Piper sells through dealers that own the inventory. If they require dealers to buy a certain number of airplanes to keep their franchise, then that could account for some of the orders. I dunno that it would be 100 though. Or maybe it's 4 per year from each of 5 dealers for 5 years.
 
After 23 years of maintaining the PA46, I can say it is very maintenance heavy. Most of the needs are forward of the firewall and the TIO540-AE2A is much more expensive to operate than the original TCM TSIO 520/550 models.
We own a 1985 PA46-310P (my wife's airplane) operated 300- 350 hrs a year. I wish they would go back to the TCM engine, a much nicer installation. We got 2600 hrs out of the last engine with only one cylinder repair. With most of our legs at 900-1100 miles I just can't think of doing them without pressurization. Eastbound winter flights are normally at 25K, the wife and kids just cant do the oxygen thing.

Kevin
 
kmead said:
After 23 years of maintaining the PA46, I can say it is very maintenance heavy. Most of the needs are forward of the firewall and the TIO540-AE2A is much more expensive to operate than the original TCM TSIO 520/550 models.
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And if anyone knows, it's you. When I find one I like, I'm bringing it to you for the prebuy.

Folks, if you don't know, Kevin is THE Malibu/Mirage guru.
 
New Columbia 400s are selling for mid-600's and despite the ceiling and speed there, spend most of their lives between 8,000 and 12,000 feet flying at 190 kts on about 17.5 g/h. The useful load wouldn't tip you either way so you're really not hauling any more of your family or friends in the Piper than the Columbia. But they'll have more room to move around. The speed and range are about the same. Does anyone know what kind of gas you've got to push through the Piper to get 190 kts at say, 10,000'?
 
Henning said:
No....way....in....hell. For their jet I could believe, for this morphadite thing, no way.
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Is New Piper publicly traded? If so then lying about orders could get the CEO time in the slammer.
 
Ken Ibold said:
What the heck is Piper thinking?
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Me thinks that they aren't selling very many Mirage's these days... this way they can keep the production line open, build the odd P model on occasion, and save significantly on certification costs. Besides, once airplanes like the Cirrus Jet, Diamond Jet, and whatever Jet hit the market, I bet Piper's market for pressurized pistons will just about dry up. They are porbably worried about the Meridian as well.

There must be something to the unpressurized thing, since Piper is the only one building a pressurized piston single. And it doesn't look like either Columbia, Cirrus, or Diamond is going to build a pressurized piston.
 
JimNtexas said:
Is New Piper publicly traded? If so then lying about orders could get the CEO time in the slammer.
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I think Ken has it right, the "orders" are from dealers who are required to buy. Orders in this case does not necessarily translate directly to consumers.
 
Sleek-Jet said:
There must be something to the unpressurized thing, since Piper is the only one building a pressurized piston single. And it doesn't look like either Columbia, Cirrus, or Diamond is going to build a pressurized piston.
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Wasn't there talk about Diamond(?) building one of their new airplanes so that the cockpit could be pressurized? Yeah, we all know that rumors are worth the electrons they're printed on...
 
gprellwitz said:
Wasn't there talk about Diamond(?) building one of their new airplanes so that the cockpit could be pressurized? Yeah, we all know that rumors are worth the electrons they're printed on...
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If you're going to add the weight structure and fabrication detail so you can pressurize it, you pressurize it. I'm sure there's signifcant structural detail varied in the Matrix from the Malibu.
 
gprellwitz said:
Wasn't there talk about Diamond(?) building one of their new airplanes so that the cockpit could be pressurized? Yeah, we all know that rumors are worth the electrons they're printed on...
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The DA-50 was designed with pressurization in mind as a future project. I know this for a fact. Now, that doesn't mean all you need is an outflow valve and a controller, you'll need to add things like pressure bulkhead(s) and sealing around control cables. By designing with it in mind, you take care of things like a window installation that can be sealed, door jambs that can be sealed, places for the bulkheads to be inserted, wire/cable routings that can be sealed, that kind of thing.
 
Henning said:
If you're going to add the weight structure and fabrication detail so you can pressurize it, you pressurize it. I'm sure there's signifcant structural detail varied in the Matrix from the Malibu.
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The aft pressure bulkhead is deleted. The window installation is, I'm told, simpler.

They also save money by not adding the radar/radar pod and by limiting the glass panel to two screens instead of three, that kind of thing. So it's more of a "stripped down" Mirage than the initial reports suggest.
 
Sleek-Jet said:
Me thinks that they aren't selling very many Mirage's these days... this way they can keep the production line open, build the odd P model on occasion, and save significantly on certification costs. Besides, once airplanes like the Cirrus Jet, Diamond Jet, and whatever Jet hit the market, I bet Piper's market for pressurized pistons will just about dry up. They are porbably worried about the Meridian as well.
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The Meridian has been Piper's best seller for several years. The turbo Saratoga is next, and then the Mirage. (Every once in a while this trend is upset by a big fleet order for Seminoles or Warriors or Arrows from a flight school.) For perspective, Piper builds about the same number of Mirages as Beech builds G36s.
 
Ken Ibold said:
The Meridian has been Piper's best seller for several years. The turbo Saratoga is next, and then the Mirage. (Every once in a while this trend is upset by a big fleet order for Seminoles or Warriors or Arrows from a flight school.) For perspective, Piper builds about the same number of Mirages as Beech builds G36s.
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I wonder then if Piper is going to kill off the 'toga... seems to me that now they are competing directly with themselves... :dunno:

For those that have seen the Matrix, are they putting another door on the airplane, similiar to the "third" door arrangement on the Navajo's, or is there room for that on the Mirage/Matix airframe??
 
Sleek-Jet said:
For those that have seen the Matrix, are they putting another door on the airplane, similiar to the "third" door arrangement on the Navajo's, or is there room for that on the Mirage/Matix airframe??
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One door, the Mailbu/Mirage airstair door.
 
They at least should put a crew door on it...
 
Well, gee, I kinda liked it. It is the new Saratoga. Really nice inside. I don't like the GNS430x2 + Avidyne system. It's a squeeze to get to the front seats. My pax (the family) would love it.

I would never buy it new, but a 3-4yr old plane down the depreciation curve is interesting. I'd be more interested in the Matrix than a G36, or Saratoga. Buuuut, I did think that removing pressurization would help with the mx intensity. You folks have cleared that up. If it's a low end hangar queen, that's not very interesting anymore.

What is Piper doing?? I think Ken is right -- mgmt wants to ditch the low-end, low-volume part of the business so they're killing it. Where to go for complex trainers in the future, one wonders? They are not public, but I bet they want to go public to cash out their investment.
 
I didn't realize that the DA-50 is planned to be pressurized...

One other thing that has me scratching my head on this... why not a diesel?? Seems like this would be a perfect way for Piper to get a leg up on the competion (other than Diamond)...
 
Sleek-Jet said:
I didn't realize that the DA-50 is planned to be pressurized...
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I don't believe the -50 is planned to be pressurized. That's a future growth option for a derivative that uses the same fuselage. But with Diamond you never really know. Did you know Christian Dries funds all of the aircraft programs out of his own pocket? Must be nice!!
 
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