Trip planning trouble

[BillG]

I would desperately like to plan some trips in my newly acquired '79 Tiger that will have a Garmin 430 when I get it back next week. I'm a capable 625 hour instrument rated pilot in Massachusetts. But when I look at planning a weekend trip next month I can't figure out how to actually pull it off so I hesitate to plan anything. I'm concerned about weather - what if I can't go? Jeez, most Fridays I'm not even sure if the weather will be good enough to go to Cape Cod for the weekend, let alone making reservations somewhere for next month...! So I hesitate, never make plans, and never go anywhere. Am I crazy? What am I doing wrong...? How do other people plan trips?

 

[Michael]

I would desperately like to plan some trips in my newly acquired '79 Tiger that will have a Garmin 430 when I get it back next week. I'm a capable 625 hour instrument rated pilot in Massachusetts. But when I look at planning a weekend trip next month I can't figure out how to actually pull it off so I hesitate to plan anything. I'm concerned about weather - what if I can't go? Jeez, most Fridays I'm not even sure if the weather will be good enough to go to Cape Cod for the weekend, let alone making reservations somewhere for next month...! So I hesitate, never make plans, and never go anywhere. Am I crazy? What am I doing wrong...? How do other people plan trips?

I moved to Arizona. 360 good flying days a year. Weather really hasnt been an issue for me cept for the ocasional unexpected landing at buttonwillow. If you are IR why not file and fly IFR?

 

[poadeleted3]

I spend a great deal of time on here and at work pestering people for places to go, and getting their input on places I've heard about. I've ordered travel guides and tourism guides for most of the east coast, and we pore over those. I will spend a ton of time picking a trip, and usually have ideas for several at once. I pick one of those ideas, plan the flight, and look forward to it. That's my next trip. If I can't take it on the planned weekend because of money, weather, or whatever reason, it moves to the next weekend. I don't stress if I can't get it done the first time, I just move it to the next weekend. I know that some trips will have to be cancelled, and don't get upset. I just replan it for the next week. As many times as I have to.

 

[Don Jones]

I would desperately like to plan some trips in my newly acquired '79 Tiger that will have a Garmin 430 when I get it back next week. I'm a capable 625 hour instrument rated pilot in Massachusetts. But when I look at planning a weekend trip next month I can't figure out how to actually pull it off so I hesitate to plan anything. I'm concerned about weather - what if I can't go? Jeez, most Fridays I'm not even sure if the weather will be good enough to go to Cape Cod for the weekend, let alone making reservations somewhere for next month...! So I hesitate, never make plans, and never go anywhere. Am I crazy? What am I doing wrong...? How do other people plan trips?

Bill, all you can do is just plan it. Make reservations, and plan the details. Don't worry about the weather until a few days before. Even living here in the Desert Southwest I have had to cancel several trips at the last minute due to weather. It is all part of flying. The instrument rating helps if you are comfortable and proficient. Just do it.
Don

 

[Ed Guthrie]

I would desperately like to plan some trips in my newly acquired '79 Tiger that will have a Garmin 430 when I get it back next week. I'm a capable 625 hour instrument rated pilot in Massachusetts. But when I look at planning a weekend trip next month I can't figure out how to actually pull it off so I hesitate to plan anything. I'm concerned about weather - what if I can't go? Jeez, most Fridays I'm not even sure if the weather will be good enough to go to Cape Cod for the weekend, let alone making reservations somewhere for next month...! So I hesitate, never make plans, and never go anywhere. Am I crazy? What am I doing wrong...? How do other people plan trips?

Bill, it all comes down to personal comfort levels/personal limits. You are an instrument pilot. What kind of weather will you fly? IOW, will you fly the entire route in IMC & rain, and then shoot an ILS in heavy rain to 200-1/2? Equally important, besides the Garmin 430, what kind of weather avoidance equipment is in the Tiger? Living in the NE the instrument proficient holder of an instrument rating flying an IFR capable single can literally fly anywhere just about any day between late April and late October with a few times on a few days during which the prudent pilot will either deviate a lot, or just sit it out for an hour or so. Remove the stormscope from the IFR capable single and the deviations and "sit outs" get more abundant and last longer (distance or time).

In my previous life (pre-WX 900, living in the NE) I got pretty good at talking to FSS via RCOs and VORs, all while drawing "radar maps" on my charts as the folks at FSS described to me what they saw relative to my current position and proposed route. Using that "radar" system I flew pretty much when I wanted, but sometimes not where I wanted. However, it was major mental work and nerve wracking to say the least. After I installed the WX-900 the Spring/Summer/Fall IFR workload decreased immensely. I even found controllers telling me, "You have weather avoidance? Great! Cleared whatever route you want--just tell me when you start a deviation." My ability to thread the needle, so to speak, increased greatly.

So, the answer to your question is, "It depends." You could safely plan a distant weekend flight and then execute the plan when the weekend arrived if your comfort and IFR skills are up to it. However, there is nothing wrong with saying, "No thanks."

 

[Arnold]

Another option is to NOT plan. Friday morning look at the Wx and go where the weather is nice. Some people, myself included at times, use flight planning as a hobby, while what the bottom line demands is only that we use it as a tool.

Have fun with the new bird.

 

[BillG]

There are many days around here when even the IR won't help - too low or thunderstorms or too windy. So I'm just hesitant about making reservations and eating the deposit I guess! I'm comfortable flying IFR if it's flyable though, and the new capabilities with my airplane will help a lot. Yet I'm still hesitant to schedule anything too far in advance. I'm much more comfortable just deciding to go somewhere without having to worry about reservations. That, of course, doesn't really work too well for anything that needs to be planned well in advance to get in.

I also have been trying to find places to go around 200-600 miles - I need a better list!

 

[Anthony]

Bill,

My wife and I try to talk about where we want to go a few days in advance, but sometimes we decide Saturday morning where we are going that day. If the plans involve overnight stay, I'll sometimes make reservations that I know I can cancel if the weather is a no go. Many times, however, we just "wing" it and just go where we want and find a place to stay when we get there. If we get stuck due to weather, we can call our neighbor who has a key to our house and can take care of our dog. Relax, and just make some plans and go if you feel comfortable with the weather. The Tiger is a great plane to do day trips or weekends on the east coast. You can get to a lot of places within a two or three hour flight.

Just a few of the places we visited when we used to live in the Phila., PA area:

Gettysburg, Annapolis, Hatteras, NC, Block Island, Cape Cod, Tangier Island, VA, St. Simons Island, GA, Bar Harbor, ME.

 

[waldo]

I live here in South Louisiana and the weather changes pretty often. This time of the year we get those little pop-up thunderstorms every evening. I may be the crazy one because I don't let too much stop me. If it's "legal" I'm going. I am a 325 hour VFR pilot that will have instrument ticket within a month or so (37 hours training so far). MVFR means very little to me now. I fly in the stuff all the time and have become very proficient. And, by the way, that's the key word, "proficient"! I depart KBTR when many IFR pilots are waiting for the weather to clear. I fly into KBTR when many IFR pilots choose there alternate for landing. Approach control knows me by my tail number and gives a special VFR every time that I request one.

Since you have your IFR ticket get out there and get proficient. Get a good instructor and pick the worst day you can find (but legal of course) and get out there and practice. Do some actual IFR down to minimums. There's no shame in having to do a missed approach.

 

[BillG]

Good ideas. I won't have weather avoidance in the Tiger. Yet! But I'll fly in just about anything and am (or will be) proficient by the time I have to do so. My girlfriend won't fly in any kind of turbulence, which is rather limiting. I like your response, though, Ed. I don't know why I am so hesitant to plan something in advance, but this thread is very helpful. I have NO problem waking up on Sat morning and deciding where to go but that's also a bit limiting. Maybe I should just do that more, though, until I'm confident that I actually CAN go where I want when I want. Which is a large part of the reason I upgraded from the Skyhawk to the Tiger.

 

[bbchien]

Local Weather pattern is the key. Use the 7 day prediction of where the jet stream is going to run. That's helpful as the low pressure centers will travel down the jet. Of course, in Massachusetts, if the low is going to park offshore, you get a summer Noreaster, essentially. Summertime its usually about three days for the low to travel from the midwest to the Northeast.

Student of the weather, 25 years, and prior to that, of Pacific weather for two years.

 

[wsuffa]

Bill,

the more you fly in it, the more confident you'll feel. Push your horizons a bit each time, and learn something from each flight.

Maybe pick a Saturday where the weather is "lite IFR" and go practice approaches in actual.

The more you study the weather, and the more you fly in it, the more you'll understand what different forecasts/conditions actually mean.

 

[bstratt]

Bill, I think the key is are you looking for a last minute day trip, last minute weekend trip, or a must travel trip (i.e. family wedding, etc.). I find the last category more difficult particularly if beyond driving distance. I have often, either the night before or morning of, cancelled a flight and ending up driving for "must gos". Last minute day trips/weekend trips are different - I start checking the weather about 7 days out to look for trends (details are unreliable), 3 days before you can get pretty accurate aviation forecasts. If it looks good then I try and book something. When we lived on the East coast our favorite weekend/day destinations were the islands - Block Island, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard.

I've rarely cancelled a flight and regretted it. Forgoing a $100 room deposit doesn't concern me if the alternative is uncomfortable flying. I consider the money a sunk cost at that point.

 

[Ed Guthrie]

There are many days around here when even the IR won't help - too low or thunderstorms or too windy.

It's all relative. For the most part, "too low" only matters at the destination airport. April to October "too low" in the NE is a fleeting thing--usually gone in an hour or two. Pick an alternate (I call them "lay up") airport close to the destination and hold that in reserve as the place you will wait for the destination to improve. Same for thunderstorms except thunderstorms matter at the destination and the departure airport. En route thunderstorms can always be flown around, the only negative being that sometimes the deviation forces you to refuel at a place where you must speak either Spanish or French/Canadian to place the fuel order. Too windy only matters when the runways don't align and the neighboring airports' designers had equally poor foresight.

But I hear you. I worked up to it slowly, too. Baby steps. My first 200-1/2 approach was around 1500 hours TT; my first 100-1/2 approach was around 3200 hours.

 

[gismo]

Good ideas. I won't have weather avoidance in the Tiger. Yet! But I'll fly in just about anything and am (or will be) proficient by the time I have to do so. My girlfriend won't fly in any kind of turbulence, which is rather limiting. I like your response, though, Ed. I don't know why I am so hesitant to plan something in advance, but this thread is very helpful. I have NO problem waking up on Sat morning and deciding where to go but that's also a bit limiting. Maybe I should just do that more, though, until I'm confident that I actually CAN go where I want when I want. Which is a large part of the reason I upgraded from the Skyhawk to the Tiger.

Just go ahead and plan your trips, but have a backup plan. I think you'll find that you can make 80-90% of the trips this time of year if you're instrument rated and a bit flexible on the departure times. To hedge your bets try to make as many of the flights in the early AM unless fog is forecast, or TRW is expected to last through the night.

In the last 15 years I think I only had to cancel one or two flights for TRW although at least a few were delayed an hour or two. Even if you have no onboard storm detection gear, you can often get through by selecting altitudes that allow visual avoidance and by relying on approach radar to help avoid areas of heavy precip. That said, a stormscope is a very worthwhile investment if only for the peace of mind it brings when droning along in the summer muck. They're not all that expensive (avionics wise) and will often provide a substantial return on investment when you sell the plane. If you do get one, go with a well experienced shop that's installed the devices on your type of aircraft before. There is some art/science to antenna placement and cable routing.

 

[grattonja]

Some understanding of the NE weather can help you too. For instance, waiting until PM right now almost always means a significant chance of boomers popping up. The am is often foggy, but... Wait until around 9 am or so, and then go somewhere 200 miles away. You will find, on average, that the fog is broken up by the time you get where you are going. No problem. Obviously, the short term, aviation weather will help a lot with that. And turbulence tends to be more of an "am-pm" issue right now. I have found it generally smooth on foggy mornings. Low stratus = IFR but also is usually wonderfully smooth. Good for the turbulence hating GF.

I have found that I just don't look at the forecasts a week out anymore. I have taken to calling it "weather guessing". Short of a building tropical storm, they simply can't do anything but give you averages and that is it. They aren't accurate enough.

About 2 days before, I start looking at the storms in the mid west, the jet stream, etc. Now I can start to visualize what is likely to be happening when I want to go. And, as Adam said, you always have the option to go somewhere other than where you first thought. Look at $100 hamburger. You will find lots of neat places on there. For example, I squacked Mt. Snow VT last year. Great BandB a mile from the field. Some of the best food I ever ate, and a microbrewery a couple of miles down the road. Neat airport too, with GPS approaches. Places like that are tailor made for you and your Garmin.

Jim G

 

[bbchien]

In line with what the others have said, I never plan a return trip form a long XC (800 nm) on a Sunday. ALWAYS on a Saturday. I have known ice and can fly at 21,000.

Ed are you CAT II authorized in your Mooney?

 

[BillG]

OK, I'm going, I'm going! I'm still opposed to making hotel reservations a month in advance, but I'll plan out some weekends for "trips" and figure out where we'll go when we get closer to the date. I'm definitely not opposed to flyable IFR weather and flew an ILS almost to mins in a driving rain last summer to get into MVY for the day. We were swimming in a private lake a couple hours later so I'm glad we went! As far as the weather guessers having any clue even a few hours in advance, pshaw - I don't even remember the last time they were anywhere near to close...! OK, sounds like I need a Stormscope some day, but not any time soon. I haven't even paid for the 430 yet!!

 

[ejensen]

Except in very special cases (Monument Valley), my wife and I patronize 'pilot' friendly lodging. That is, same day cancellation policy or at the most 24-hour. Stay away from major attractions during prime season. Then if the weather does cooperate we cancel as soon as we can to free up the room. This might mean using a different airport and driving. Or flying to the motel at the end of the day. For instance, Bryce Canyon is very close to the airport but lodging can be tough on short notice and they have a 48-hr policy. But you can easily fly 75 miles to Saint George and stay in the on filed motel.

And even those crowded places can usually fill you room so you don't get charged. My sister didn't make the first night at Monument Valley and they resold within minutes of the cancellation.

Eric

 

[Ed Guthrie]

Ed are you CAT II authorized in your Mooney?

No. However, it was in a Navajo, and we used the approach lights to get 100' lower.

Fairly interesting to halt on the runway center line, look at each other and say, "Okay, where are we?"

 

[Kyle Thornley]

Definately look at www.100dollarhamburger.com. The wife and I have found that most of those (they have a link for golf locations as well) are aviation friendly and understand that weather is an issue, so they will let you cancel fairly late (24 hours) with no penalty. That said, I have yet to cancel one of our trips. We certainly have left early and late in order to make it in, and we have also stopped in the middle to wait it out, once even overnight. For the most part summertime just means delays not cancellations. Winter icing is the one that lasts for a long time. I am IR, but I don't like to fly for long periods in the soup, too draining. I fly for fun and if it's that bad up there it will be that bad on the ground so I'll stay home. Last trip to Garland convinced me I need some kind of weather avoidance gear, not a fun ride home, about an hour more than it normally takes, and way too much stress, both pilot and passenger. That WX-900 sounds good.

 

[Let'sgoflying!]

I know a x0,000 hour pilot who has easily flown 300hrs this year (pt 91 bus, personal etc). Light singles and twins mostly although the c425 and 525 are in there.., always trips over 100miles, often over 250nm, only 2 of the airplanes are ki.... and I can count the times he has canceled a trip in the last 12 months with two fingers. In some ways I aspire to be as capable, but then I set back with squinty eyes and think about what it would take, what risks I would be exposed to. Granted we are in the sunny south, but we have had 'wet' weather in that time period, with lots of chance for low weather, tz's, icing etc. the past winter. He has delayed, he has gone around wx, but he has a fantastic knack for getting it done. I have been there for a few approaches to minimums with him, and it hit the deck right after we landed (lots of 'outs') but he seems incredibly gifted or lucky!

 

[poadeleted20]

...sounds like I need a Stormscope some day, but not any time soon. I haven't even paid for the 430 yet!!

Note that with the 430, you can save a few bucks on a Stormscope by getting the WX-500 sensor/analyzer that displays on the 430 rather than on a separate display head. Having the sferics data overlaid on your map display is very useful.

 

[BillG]

Leave it to you to entice me with new toys, Ron... I think I'll bump the Stormscope up the list above the transponder you were selling me this morning...

 

[wsuffa]

Ron's suggestion notwithstanding (and it's a good one)....

When I replaced my WX-8, I bought a WX-900. It was significantly less expensive than the WX-500....

YMMV.

 

[gismo]

Ron's suggestion notwithstanding (and it's a good one)....

When I replaced my WX-8, I bought a WX-900. It was significantly less expensive than the WX-500....

YMMV.

Yep, the WX-900 is one hell of a bargain. And given the rather inaccurate range info from any stormscope, displaying it on a moving map is of limited value (there's some value, but nothing like uplinked Nexrad on a map). And speaking of uplinks, AnywhereWx/XM will provide a fair bit of TRW avoidance for surprisingly little money. Just don't try to penetrate a line of storms with it.

 

[Ed Guthrie]

Note that with the 430, you can save a few bucks on a Stormscope by getting the WX-500 sensor/analyzer that displays on the 430 rather than on a separate display head. Having the sferics data overlaid on your map display is very useful.

When I last looked into this stuff, the WX-500 sensor installed cost more than the WX-900 display/sensor installed. YMMV.

Tripping through the web, I find that L-3 appears to have bought the Stormscope line from BF Goodrich. It also appears that the new owners' first executive decision was to drop the WX-900 product.

 

[silver-eagle]

Bill;
A couple of places that list the Wx is the AOPA Enews which is sent Friday morning and flyguides.com, which gives destinations. Like others have said, get a Wx book and get good on Northeast Wx. Start playing what-if Tuesday and Wednesday. Have yourself a roadtrip backup. We do.
One of our planned trips was to Martha's Vineyard. We had planned to take off at 9AM. Due to fog, I pushed it off until 11AM and the Wx update, my PAX called the ferry to the Vineyard and we hit the road. While we are less than 40 minutes by air, the roadtrip and ferry amounted to about 2 1/2 hours. Overall, a GREAT day.
Of course, if I was IFR, the fog might not have been an issue. I have one of the best PAX. Nothing bothers her. She's a veteran of USScair!

 

[bbchien]

No. However, it was in a Navajo, and we used the approach lights to get 100' lower.

Fairly interesting to halt on the runway center line, look at each other and say, "Okay, where are we?"

That happened to me about 10 years ago at PIA. I saw the MIRLs just as I was pushing the the throttles, so I pulled them, full flaps, landed and called, "Peoria Tower 327XX saw the Rabbit at 200, and we are down on 13 I believe somewhere near Charlie. Would you send a truck?

And there we sat until he found us.

 

[judypilot]

What Steve said. Something to keep in mind: a lot of FBOs will arrange rental cars and/or hotels when you arrive without reservations, and a lot of them have discount deals. I'm writing this from a hotel room that the FBO in FFT arranged for me after I arrived at about 1700 local. They even drove me to the hotel and will pick me up tomorrow morning. I have done this many times, and it really removes the stress of having to worry about reservations, especially since so many places are making you pay if you don't show up.

A lot of people don't use Airnav because it's not always up to date, but I've had pretty good luck with it. In fact, I picked FFT based on the reviews in Airnav, and was not disappointed.

Judy

 

[azure]

I live here in South Louisiana and the weather changes pretty often. This time of the year we get those little pop-up thunderstorms every evening. I may be the crazy one because I don't let too much stop me. If it's "legal" I'm going. I am a 325 hour VFR pilot that will have instrument ticket within a month or so (37 hours training so far). MVFR means very little to me now. I fly in the stuff all the time and have become very proficient. And, by the way, that's the key word, "proficient"! I depart KBTR when many IFR pilots are waiting for the weather to clear. I fly into KBTR when many IFR pilots choose there alternate for landing. Approach control knows me by my tail number and gives a special VFR every time that I request one.

Wow. I won't quote my hours but up here in Michigan, I've come to the exact opposite conclusion. Launching on a XC VFR only in known MVFR is a recipe for VFR into IMC or scud running at the very least. In MVFR vis you might not be able to see it coming. And to be specific, in northern MI, there aren't enough ground reporting stations to get an accurate preflight picture of even current conditions at that time. I have twice received an "airbrushed" briefing for reasonably good VFR up there only to get my butt kicked by MUCH worse than reported conditions. At this point I'm not too keen on doing serious XC up there in anything less than CAVU until I have my IR.

Just MHO.

Liz

 

[azure]

Along the Gulf Coast in the summertime there are a lot of days where the wx iin the morning is 800-900 broken and >10 viz. Go 30 miles north and it's clear. I was stuck in LCH a couple of days waiting for VFR and finally left SVFR. Was in the clear in 10 minutes (with average elevation around 15' the main thing to watch for are the radio/tv towers).

That was also the trip that prompted me to get my IMC flying privileges.

That sounds not too different from PHN, at the southern tip of Lake Huron, where I'm based. If the wind is between 360 and 060 and the air over the lake is moist enough, in comes the marine layer scud at 900-1200 AGL. I wouldn't consider getting a SVFR clearance to get out of there even if it was CAVU 20 miles south, because the stuff has a habit of spreading out quickly and unpredictably, sometimes as far south as northern metro Detroit. Getting in is another matter - so far I've never had to, but it's been close a couple of times. Hopefully I will have my instrument privileges before the need arises.

But the worst problem is the patchy scud/ragged bases/showers that crop up when you have moisture trapped under a subsidence inversion. Those big H's on the wx charts don't mean a thing here. More informative is the RH below 850 millibars, especially between 925 and 850. If that's above 75%, don't bother with surface reports or TAF forecasts. If you launch even with widespread 4000 foot ceilings (assuming you trust the reports - AWOSes lie, but that's a whole 'nother can o' worms), expect conditions to be locally MUCH lower... as in maybe even below 1000 feet in places.

The best advice is that attributed to Gordon Baxter: whip out that blue paper with a hole in it and say "no go" unless color of hole matches color of sky.

Liz

 

[Kyle Thornley]

Amen Liz, that kind of thing is what made me go for the IR. Around these here Great Lakes, to actually go somewhere and plan on getting back in time for work on Monday it's a must. Hope you get that rating soon, sure does increase the usage of the plane.